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词条 Microlife
释义

  1. See also

  2. References

  3. Further reading

A microlife is a unit of risk representing half an hour change of life expectancy.[1]

Introduced by David Spiegelhalter and Alejandro Leiva, microlives are intended as a simple way of communicating the impact of a lifestyle or environmental risk factor, based on the associated daily proportional effect on expected length of life. Similar to the micromort (one in a million probability of death) the microlife is intended for "rough but fair comparisons between the sizes of chronic risks".[1] This is to avoid the biasing effects of describing risks in relative hazard ratios, converting them into somewhat tangible units. Similarly they bring long-term future risks into the here-and-now as a gain or loss of time.

"A daily loss or gain of 30 minutes can be termed a microlife, because 1 000 000 half hours (57 years) roughly corresponds to a lifetime of adult exposure."[1]

The microlife exploits that for small hazard ratios the change in life expectancy is roughly linear.[2] They are by necessity rough estimates, based on averages over population and lifetime. Effects of individual variability, short-term or changing habits, and causal factors are not taken into account.{{cite needed|date=May 2014}}

Microlives gained/lost, based on estimated life expectancy effects of long term lifestyle and demographic risk factors, for men and women aged 35 years.[1]
Risk factor Men Women
Smoking
Smoking 15–24 cigarettes −10 −9
Alcohol intake
First drink (of 10 g alcohol) 1 1
Each subsequent drink (up to 6) −½ −1
Obesity
Per 5 units above body mass index of 22.5 each day −3 −3
Per 5 kg above optimum weight for average height each day −1 −1
Sedentary behaviour
2 hours watching television −1 −1
Diet
Red meat, 1 portion (85 g, 3 oz) −1 −1
Fruit and vegetable intake, =5 servings (blood vitamin C >50 nmol/L) 4 3
Coffee intake
2-3 cups 1 1
Physical activity
First 20 minutes of moderate exercise 2 2
Subsequent 40 minutes of moderate exercise 1 ½
Statins
Taking a statin 1 1
Air pollution
Per day living in Mexico City v London −½ −½
Geography
Per day being a resident of Russia v Sweden −21 −9
Era
Per day living in 2010 v 1910 15 15
Per day living in 2010 v 1980 8 5

See also

  • Micromort
  • Risk communication

References

1. ^1 2 3 {{cite journal |last=Spiegelhalter |first=D. |title=Using speed of ageing and "microlives" to communicate the effects of lifetime habits and environment |journal=BMJ |volume=345 |issue=dec14 14 |date=2012-12-14 |issn=1756-1833 |doi=10.1136/bmj.e8223 |pages=e8223–e8223}}
2. ^{{cite journal |last=Haybittle |first=J. |title=The use of the Gompertz function to relate changes in life expectancy to the standardized mortality ratio |journal=International Journal of Epidemiology |publisher=Oxford University Press (OUP) |volume=27 |issue=5 |date=1998-10-01 |issn=1464-3685 |doi=10.1093/ije/27.5.885 |pages=885–889}}

Further reading

  • {{cite web |last=Spiegelhalter |first=David |title=Microlives: A lesson in risk taking |website=BBC |date=2012-02-09 |url=http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120209-a-lesson-in-risk |ref=harv |access-date=2018-12-25}}
  • {{cite web |title=Microlives |website=Understanding Uncertainty |url=http://understandinguncertainty.org/microlives |ref={{sfnref |Understanding Uncertainty}} |access-date=2018-12-25}}
  • {{cite web |title=BMJ Microlives |website=BMJ Microlives |url=https://journals.bmj.com/site/microlives/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161007003115/https://journals.bmj.com/site/microlives/ |archive-date=2016-10-07 |dead-url=yes}} A calculator for about eight different factors' effect upon microlives.

1 : Health risk
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