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{{Main|Taiwan presidential election, 2012}}Nationwide public opinion polling have been commissioned in the leadup to the Taiwan presidential election of 2012 by various organisations, including the Apple Daily, China Times, Global Views Magazine, Liberty Times, Era News and TVBS News. Election forecasts have also been released by various organisations, including the National Chengchi University, China Times, "Gallup" Market Research (not part of the global Gallup organization),[1] Global Views Magazine, and TVBS News, through the use of different forecasting models. It is important to note that in terms of political orientation, sources such as TVBS News, United Daily News, and China Times are considered to be pro-unification, while sources such as Liberty Times are considered to be pro-independence. Opinion pollingTwo-way race| Poll Source | Date of completion | Ma Ying-jeou | Tsai Ing-wen | Undecided |
|---|
| [https://web.archive.org/web/20120414183916/http://www.dpp.org.tw/news_content.php?sn=4873 Democratic Progressive Party] | April 26, 2011 | 36.23% | 41.16% | 22.61% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20120414183916/http://www.dpp.org.tw/news_content.php?sn=4873 Trendspotting Survey and Research] | April 26, 2011 | 33.45% | 43.35% | 23.20% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20120414183916/http://www.dpp.org.tw/news_content.php?sn=4873 Master Survey and Research] | April 26, 2011 | 33.81% | 43.11% | 23.08% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20120414183916/http://www.dpp.org.tw/news_content.php?sn=4873 All Dimension Survey and Research] | April 26, 2011 | 35.87% | 42.93% | 21.20% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20120414183916/http://www.dpp.org.tw/news_content.php?sn=4873 Era News] | April 26, 2011 | 35.86% | 41.97% | 22.17% | | China Times | April 27, 2011 | 33.0% | 33.4% | 33.6% | | United Daily News | April 27, 2011 | 36% | 37% | 26% | | Apple Daily | April 27, 2011 | 29.38% | 56.21% | 14.41% | | TVBS News | April 27, 2011 | 43% | 42% | 15% | | Shih Hsin University | May 7, 2011 | 44.2% | 38.3% | 17.5% | | Global Views Survey and Research | May 10, 2011 | 38.9% | 38.6% | 22.6% | | Apple Daily | May 13, 2011 | 53.76% | 31.97% | 14.27% | | Master Survey and Research | May 16, 2011 | 40.6% | 41.3% | 18.1% | | China Times | May 18, 2011 | 34.9% | 26.9% | 37.7% | | United Daily News | May 18, 2011 | 45% | 27% | 27% | | Liberty Times | May 19, 2011 | 29.45% | 31.55% | 39.00% | | TVBS News | May 19, 2011 | 45% | 44% | 10% | | Liberty Times | May 24, 2011 | 31.34% | 34.57% | 34.08% | | TVBS News | May 30, 2011 | 46% | 42% | 10% | | Democratic Progressive Party | June 9, 2011 | 40.0% | 41.3% | 18.7% | | Apple Daily | June 14, 2011 | 43.02% | 46.27% | 10.71% | | Global Views Survey and Research | June 15, 2011 | 41.2% | 36.3% | 22.5% | | TVBS News | June 20, 2011 | 44% | 39% | 16% | | Era News | June 20, 2011 | 34.90% | 37.35% | 27.76% | | Liberty Times | June 28, 2011 | 27.12% | 31.66% | 41.22% | | Trend Survey and Research | June 30, 2011 | 42.4% | 38.8% | 18.8% | | TVBS News | July 7, 2011 | 44% | 36% | 17% | | Era News | July 9, 2011 | 38.6% | 33.1% | 28.4% | | I-tel Survey and Research | July 12, 2011 | 49.64% | 50.36% | — | | United Daily News | July 13, 2011 | 43% | 37% | 20% | | Global Views Survey and Research | July 15, 2011 | 37.3% | 37.2% | 25.5% | | Apple Daily | July 15, 2011 | 42.57% | 40.80% | 16.63% | | Trend Survey and Research | July 17, 2011 | 41.6% | 36.3% | 22.1% | | TVBS News | July 21, 2011 | 45% | 38% | 16% | | Liberty Times | July 26, 2011 | 36.39% | 34.29% | 29.32% | | Democratic Progressive Party | July 27, 2011 | 49.9% | 50.1% | — | | China Times | August 3, 2011 | 33.5% | 29.2% | 37.3% | | Era News | August 5, 2011 | 33.1% | 30.1% | 36.8% | | I-tel Survey and Research | August 11, 2011 | 50.45% | 49.55% | — | | Apple Daily | August 12, 2011 | 44.27% | 33.73% | 22.00% | | United Daily News | August 14, 2011 | 44% | 36% | 18% | | TVBS News | August 15, 2011 | 46% | 39% | 14% | | US Congress Report | August 15, 2011 | 37% | 37% | 26% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20110924023910/http://www.gvsrc.net.tw/dispPageBox/GVSRCCP.aspx?ddsPageID=POLITICS&&dbid=3852962941 Global Views Survey and Research] | August 16, 2011 | 39.6% | 38.1% | 22.3% | | Trend Survey and Research | August 24, 2011 | 45.7% | 40.2% | 14.1% | | TVBS News | August 30, 2011 | 46% | 37% | 17% | | Focus Survey and Research | August 31, 2011 | 41.1% | 39.4% | 19.5% | | Era News | September 3, 2011 | 36.9% | 30.4% | 32.8% | | Liberty Times | September 7, 2011 | 36.87% | 33.92% | 29.21% | | Democratic Progressive Party | September 9, 2011 | 44.0% | 43.6% | 12.4% | | China Times | September 9, 2011 | 43.6% | 33.7% | 22.7% | | Apple Daily | September 9, 2011 | 30.69% | 51.29% | 18.02% | | TVBS News | September 14, 2011 | 48% | 37% | 16% | | United Daily News | September 14, 2011 | 46% | 39% | 14% | | Liberty Times | September 16, 2011 | 36.26% | 36.70% | 27.04% | | Focus Survey and Research | September 16, 2011 | 42.8% | 34.6% | 22.6% | | Apple Daily | September 17, 2011 | 42.59% | 33.92% | 23.49% | | Era News | September 17, 2011 | 41.5% | 32.7% | 25.7% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20111025005718/http://news.chinatimes.com/focus/50109625/112011092100079.html China Times] | September 18, 2011 | 41% | 36% | 23% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20111002061932/http://www.gvsrc.net.tw/dispPageBox/GVSRCCP.aspx?ddsPageID=NEWS&&dbid=3470362989 Global Views Survey and Research] | September 19, 2011 | 39.2% | 38.3% | 22.5% | | Democratic Progressive Party | September 19, 2011 | 42.8% | 44.3% | 12.9% | | TVBS News | September 20, 2011 | 47% | 35% | 18% | | TVBS News | September 22, 2011 | 47% | 37% | 17% | | TVBS News | September 28, 2011 | 46% | 38% | 17% | | Focus Survey and Research | September 28, 2011 | 43.2% | 35.9% | 11.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrIAejaC7x8 China Times] | October 2, 2011 | 41.7% | 37.1% | 21.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWgzeyc7Ao4 China Times] | October 3, 2011 | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWgzeyc7Ao4 China Times] | October 4, 2011 | 42.7% | 35.8% | 21.5% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWgzeyc7Ao4 China Times] | October 5, 2011 | 43.2% | 34.8% | 22.0% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6XDTJ2wpAM China Times] | October 6, 2011 | 42.4% | 34.1% | 23.5% | | TVBS News | October 6, 2011 | 45% | 38% | 17% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OijM5oiEs5k China Times] | October 7, 2011 | 43.0% | 34.5% | 22.5% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OijM5oiEs5k China Times] | October 8, 2011 | 42.0% | 34.1% | 23.9% | | Trend Survey and Research | October 8, 2011 | 42.9% | 33.9% | 23.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OijM5oiEs5k China Times] | October 9, 2011 | 40.9% | 34.1% | 25.0% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLxNH7diuOw China Times] | October 10, 2011 | 41.0% | 32.4% | 26.5% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5gjRAUWI0E China Times] | October 11, 2011 | 41.4% | 33.3% | 25.3% | | Focus Survey and Research | October 12, 2011 | 40.6% | 32.0% | 27.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY7MZicSu1g China Times] | October 12, 2011 | 42.5% | 32.5% | 25.0% | | TVBS News | October 12, 2011 | 43% | 38% | 19% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQtg8e3tEFQ China Times] | October 13, 2011 | 43.3% | 33.3% | 23.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A99Eh2Df4c China Times] | October 14, 2011 | 43.5% | 33.8% | 22.7% | | United Daily News | October 15, 2011 | 46% | 36% | 18% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A99Eh2Df4c China Times] | October 15, 2011 | 42.7% | 36.3% | 21.0% | | Taipei University of Education | October 15, 2011 | 36.5% | 30.6% | 32.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A99Eh2Df4c China Times] | October 16, 2011 | 42.4% | 35.1% | 22.5% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20111025072902/http://camera.chinatimes.com/PhotoView.aspx?fid=16156&pid=203668 China Times] | October 17, 2011 | 43.1% | 35.5% | 21.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1DaFLtj8IE China Times] | October 18, 2011 | 43.6% | 35.5% | 20.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgvLWfe79-I China Times] | October 19, 2011 | 44.2% | 35.7% | 20.1% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDzZu4otzFc China Times] | October 20, 2011 | 44.1% | 36.0% | 19.9% | | TVBS News | October 20, 2011 | 45% | 39% | 16% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biUSJ0tBG1A China Times] | October 21, 2011 | 44.6% | 36.1% | 19.3% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biUSJ0tBG1A China Times] | October 22, 2011 | 44.6% | 36.6% | 18.8% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biUSJ0tBG1A China Times] | October 23, 2011 | 43.9% | 38.4% | 17.7% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mblJvrvHAo China Times] | October 24, 2011 | 43.2% | 38.6% | 18.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VucxAihGlMk China Times] | October 25, 2011 | 44.1% | 38.6% | 17.3% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20111128032813/http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2011/new/oct/27/today-fo2.htm Liberty Times] | October 26, 2011 | 35.60% | 36.10% | 28.30% | | TVBS News | October 26, 2011 | 44% | 39% | 17% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uo9ZGaaSjxk China Times] | October 26, 2011 | 44.2% | 39.6% | 16.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFnPRmp8nFs China Times] | October 27, 2011 | 44.0% | 38.7% | 17.3% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2AqK3Ii7wY China Times] | October 28, 2011 | 43.6% | 39.0% | 17.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2AqK3Ii7wY China Times] | October 29, 2011 | 44.4% | 38.5% | 17.1% | | Decision Making Research | October 29, 2011 | 37.3% | 40.1% | 22.6% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2AqK3Ii7wY China Times] | October 30, 2011 | 44.2% | 39.0% | 16.8% | | TVBS News | October 31, 2011 | 46% | 39% | 15% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q55nWhTIaNg China Times] | November 3, 2011 | 43.5% | 39.7% | 16.8% | | TVBS News | November 3, 2011 | 47% | 42% | 10% | | Focus Survey and Research | November 7, 2011 | 37.8% | 36.1% | 26.1% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpRXlogYSgg China Times] | November 7, 2011 | 45.4% | 41.0% | 13.6% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuWNyQKq708 China Times] | November 8, 2011 | 44.1% | 40.9% | 15.0% | | Liberty Times | November 9, 2011 | 37.17% | 36.29% | 26.54% | | TVBS News | November 10, 2011 | 45% | 44% | 11% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgNgPeMVrws China Times] | November 11, 2011 | 42.9% | 38.9% | 18.2% | | United Daily News | November 12, 2011 | 45% | 39% | 16% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER4QF4UdrZA China Times] | November 14, 2011 | 42.4% | 39.2% | 18.4% | | TVBS News | November 16, 2011 | 46% | 45% | 9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm-EOC9xuAk China Times] | November 17, 2011 | 45.0% | 39.3% | 15.7% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtNOvWxBh6Q China Times] | November 22, 2011 | 46.1% | 41.7% | 12.2% | | Liberty Times | November 23, 2011 | 36.58% | 39.61% | 23.81% |
Three-way race| Poll Source | Date of Completion | Ma Ying-jeou | Tsai Ing-wen | James Soong | Undecided |
|---|
| Era News | July 1, 2011 | 35.8% | 33.9% | 8.6% | 21.6% | | Trend Survey and Research | July 17, 2011 | 35.8% | 32.3% | 10.0% | 21.9% | | TVBS News | July 21, 2011 | 38% | 36% | 13% | 12% | | China Times | August 3, 2011 | 33.0% | 28.6% | 10.3% | 28.0% | | Era News | August 5, 2011 | 29.3% | 27.7% | 15.4% | 27.6% | | Apple Daily | August 12, 2011 | 38.82% | 27.82% | 18.95% | 14.41% | | United Daily News | August 14, 2011 | 38% | 31% | 15% | 16% | | TVBS News | August 15, 2011 | 39% | 35% | 16% | 9% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20110924023910/http://www.gvsrc.net.tw/dispPageBox/GVSRCCP.aspx?ddsPageID=POLITICS&&dbid=3852962941 Global Views Survey and Research] | August 16, 2011 | 35.1% | 33.9% | 14.0% | 17.0% | | Trend Survey and Research | August 24, 2011 | 37.2% | 31.9% | 16.7% | 14.2% | | TVBS News | August 30, 2011 | 40% | 32% | 17% | 12% | | Focus Survey and Research | August 31, 2011 | 33.1% | 32.4% | 12.7% | 21.8% | | Era News | September 3, 2011 | 35.2% | 28.6% | 14.3% | 21.9% | | Liberty Times | September 7, 2011 | 31.46% | 28.23% | 14.68% | 25.63% | | I-tel Survey and Research | September 8, 2011 | 41.38% | 40.89% | 17.73% | — | | China Times | September 1, 2011 | 38.8% | 31.5% | 13.6% | 16.1% | | TVBS News | September 14, 2011 | 42% | 34% | 14% | 10% | | United Daily News | September 14, 2011 | 40% | 32% | 13% | 14% | | Liberty Times | September 16, 2011 | 31.61% | 31.61% | 13.44% | 23.34% | | Focus Survey and Research | September 16, 2011 | 33.4% | 27.9% | 11.4% | 27.4% | | Apple Daily | September 17, 2011 | 39.70% | 29.64% | 16.21% | 14.45% | | Era News | September 17, 2011 | 36.3% | 28.5% | 11.2% | 24.1% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20111025005718/http://news.chinatimes.com/focus/50109625/112011092100079.html China Times] | September 18, 2011 | 39% | 32% | 11% | 18% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20111002061932/http://www.gvsrc.net.tw/dispPageBox/GVSRCCP.aspx?ddsPageID=NEWS&&dbid=3470362989 Global Views Survey and Research] | September 11, 2011 | 35.8% | 36.0% | 10.0% | 18.2% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20111126091705/http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2011/new/sep/22/today-fo1-2.htm Democratic Progressive Party] | September 11, 2011 | 36.2% | 37.4% | 12.4% | 14.0% | | TVBS News | September 20, 2011 | 43% | 32% | 14% | 11% | | TVBS News | September 22, 2011 | 42% | 32% | 15% | 11% | | TVBS News | September 28, 2011 | 40% | 33% | 14% | 13% | | Focus Survey and Research | September 28, 2011 | 33.6% | 29.8% | 11.5% | 16.9% | | Trend Survey and Research | September 28, 2011 | 36.2% | 28.4% | 9.7% | 25.7% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrIAejaC7x8 China Times] | October 2, 2011 | 39.5% | 36.0% | 11.7% | 12.8% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-57zsUQQwNQ China Times] | October 3, 2011 | 38.7% | 34.7% | 11.1% | 15.5% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWgzeyc7Ao4 China Times] | October 4, 2011 | 38.5% | 35.1% | 12.1% | 14.3% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWgzeyc7Ao4 China Times] | October 5, 2011 | 38.4% | 33.5% | 12.8% | 15.3% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6XDTJ2wpAM China Times] | October 6, 2011 | 37.5% | 32.2% | 13.7% | 16.6% | | Master Survey and Research | October 6, 2011 | 37.3% | 36.1% | 12.6% | 13.9% | | TVBS News | October 6, 2011 | 40% | 35% | 13% | 13% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OijM5oiEs5k China Times] | October 7, 2011 | 37.5% | 31.7% | 13.6% | 17.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OijM5oiEs5k China Times] | October 8, 2011 | 37.7% | 31.9% | 13.2% | 17.2% | | Trend Survey and Research | October 8, 2011 | 36.2% | 28.4% | 9.7% | 25.7% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OijM5oiEs5k China Times] | October 1, 2011 | 37.9% | 31.6% | 13.4% | 17.1% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLxNH7diuOw China Times] | October 10, 2011 | 38.0% | 30.6% | 13.2% | 18.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5gjRAUWI0E China Times] | October 11, 2011 | 38.9% | 31.4% | 12.0% | 17.7% | | Focus Survey and Research | October 12, 2011 | 37.0% | 30.5% | 13.3% | 19.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY7MZicSu1g China Times] | October 12, 2011 | 40.0% | 31.0% | 11.4% | 17.6% | | TVBS News | October 12, 2011 | 38% | 34% | 15% | 13% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQtg8e3tEFQ China Times] | October 13, 2011 | 39.7% | 30.3% | 12.6% | 17.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A99Eh2Df4c China Times] | October 14, 2011 | 39.0% | 31.4% | 11.7% | 17.9% | | United Daily News | October 15, 2011 | 43% | 32% | 11% | 14% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A99Eh2Df4c China Times] | October 15, 2011 | 39.5% | 32.7% | 11.3% | 16.5% | | Taipei University of Education | October 15, 2011 | 34.0% | 26.4% | 10.2% | 29.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A99Eh2Df4c China Times] | October 16, 2011 | 39.9% | 32.5% | 10.3% | 17.3% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20111025072902/http://camera.chinatimes.com/PhotoView.aspx?fid=16156&pid=203668 China Times] | October 17, 2011 | 40.9% | 32.4% | 11.0% | 15.7% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1DaFLtj8IE China Times] | October 18, 2011 | 42.0% | 33.7% | 9.4% | 14.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgvLWfe79-I China Times] | October 11, 2011 | 43.7% | 33.7% | 9.1% | 13.5% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDzZu4otzFc China Times] | October 20, 2011 | 42.0% | 34.8% | 9.3% | 13.8% | | TVBS News | October 20, 2011 | 43% | 35% | 12% | 10% | | I-tel Survey and Research | October 21, 2011 | 43.72% | 42.95% | 13.33% | — | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biUSJ0tBG1A China Times] | October 21, 2011 | 42.3% | 35.1% | 9.7% | 12.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biUSJ0tBG1A China Times] | October 22, 2011 | 42.3% | 35.8% | 9.4% | 12.5% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biUSJ0tBG1A China Times] | October 23, 2011 | 41.6% | 36.3% | 10.6% | 11.5% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mblJvrvHAo China Times] | October 24, 2011 | 40.6% | 36.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VucxAihGlMk China Times] | October 25, 2011 | 42.1% | 37.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20111128032813/http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2011/new/oct/27/today-fo2.htm Liberty Times] | October 26, 2011 | 31.91% | 30.28% | 11.13% | 26.67% | | TVBS News | October 26, 2011 | 42% | 33% | 13% | 12% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uo9ZGaaSjxk China Times] | October 26, 2011 | 42.1% | 37.5% | 9.5% | 10.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWun2eqLYgM China Times] | October 27, 2011 | 42.2% | 37.4% | 8.5% | 11.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2AqK3Ii7wY China Times] | October 28, 2011 | 41.3% | 38.0% | 8.3% | 12.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2AqK3Ii7wY China Times] | October 21, 2011 | 42.1% | 37.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | | Decision Making Research | October 21, 2011 | 32.2% | 35.9% | 13.7% | 18.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2AqK3Ii7wY China Times] | October 30, 2011 | 41.3% | 37.1% | 10.0% | 11.6% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBSrmghXJ74 China Times] | October 31, 2011 | 41.8% | 36.0% | 10.4% | 11.8% | | TVBS News | October 31, 2011 | 39% | 33% | 9% | 20% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x3WSooGb7Q China Times] | November 1, 2011 | 41.3% | 35.8% | 11.0% | 11.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqmmZqWjkno China Times] | November 2, 2011 | 42.0% | 33.8% | 11.4% | 12.8% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20120602134047/http://news.rti.org.tw/index_newsContent.aspx?nid=326240 Focus Survey and Research] | November 2, 2011 | 38.0% | 30.7% | 9.7% | 21.6% | | TVBS News | November 3, 2011 | 38% | 35% | 14% | 13% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q55nWhTIaNg China Times] | November 3, 2011 | 41.2% | 35.3% | 11.3% | 12.2% | | Master Survey and Research | November 4, 2011 | 39.5% | 38.6% | 12.9% | 9.1% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyU3hCY8Mbc China Times] | November 4, 2011 | 42.0% | 35.6% | 10.6% | 11.8% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyU3hCY8Mbc China Times] | November 5, 2011 | 41.4% | 37.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpRXlogYSgg China Times] | November 6, 2011 | 41.7% | 38.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | | Gallup Market Research | November 6, 2011 | 32.4% | 25.6% | 8.2% | 33.8% | | Focus Survey and Research | November 7, 2011 | 35.0% | 33.2% | 13.1% | 18.7% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpRXlogYSgg China Times] | November 7, 2011 | 42.3% | 39.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuWNyQKq708 China Times] | November 8, 2011 | 42.0% | 39.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | | Liberty Times | November 1, 2011 | 33.58% | 32.97% | 11.17% | 22.27% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuWNyQKq708 China Times] | November 1, 2011 | 41.4% | 38.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% | | TVBS News | November 10, 2011 | 39% | 38% | 9% | 14% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuWNyQKq708 China Times] | November 10, 2011 | 41.6% | 38.1% | 10.7% | 9.6% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgNgPeMVrws China Times] | November 11, 2011 | 41.6% | 38.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | | United Daily News | November 12, 2011 | 41% | 36% | 9% | 13% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER4QF4UdrZA China Times] | November 14, 2011 | 41.2% | 39.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAsJNzAhSdo China Times] | November 15, 2011 | 42.4% | 38.1% | 9.5% | 10.0% | | TVBS News | November 16, 2011 | 39% | 39% | 9% | 12% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukatkaLt-Zk China Times] | November 16, 2011 | 43.3% | 37.9% | 9.1% | 9.7% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm-EOC9xuAk China Times] | November 17, 2011 | 43.4% | 37.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | | Taipei University of Education | November 18, 2011 | 37.2% | 30.2% | 7.7% | 24.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHBR3bXQe30 China Times] | November 18, 2011 | 43.2% | 37.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% | | Master Survey and Research | November 18, 2011 | 38.7% | 39.6% | 11.7% | 10.0% | | Decision Making Research | November 20, 2011 | 33.5% | 40.1% | 11.2% | 15.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUlJpeempSE China Times] | November 21, 2011 | 44.7% | 36.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtNOvWxBh6Q China Times] | November 22, 2011 | 43.6% | 38.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | | Liberty Times | November 23, 2011 | 33.39% | 35.79% | 9.80% | 21.02% | | Focus Survey and Research | November 23, 2011 | 39.0% | 35.8% | 9.9% | 14.8% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLsvXimwqwM China Times] | November 23, 2011 | 42.0% | 39.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | | TVBS News | November 23, 2011 | 40% | 38% | 7% | 15% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXLkO6267Lc China Times] | November 24, 2011 | 40.7% | 40.3% | 10.3% | 8.7% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcBOdtDRic China Times] | November 25, 2011 | 42.6% | 39.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | | United Daily News | November 27, 2011 | 41% | 35% | 10% | 14% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKavlIDKobg China Times] | November 28, 2011 | 42.7% | 37.6% | 9.5% | 10.2% | | YouGov Market Research | November 28, 2011 | 34% | 26% | 10% | 30% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAQOGvNeMUI China Times] | November 29, 2011 | 43.0% | 35.2% | 8.4% | 13.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ab5My2PGHks China Times] | November 30, 2011 | 41.8% | 35.1% | 8.3% | 14.8% | | Focus Survey and Research | November 30, 2011 | 36.7% | 32.1% | 10.0% | 21.2% | | TVBS News | December 1, 2011 | 40% | 34% | 7% | 19% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JV1gwKYYBQ China Times] | December 2, 2011 | 43.5% | 36.1% | 7.0% | 13.4% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3T5chX75dH4 China Times] | December 2, 2011 | 43.4% | 37.5% | 7.7% | 11.4% | | TVBS News | December 3, 2011 | 38% | 32% | 12% | 18% | | United Daily News | December 3, 2011 | 39% | 32% | 10% | 17% | | Apple Daily | December 3, 2011 | 47.04% | 36.90% | 12.11% | 3.95% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3T5chX75dH4 China Times] | December 3, 2011 | 39.9% | 32.6% | 8.9% | 18.6% | | Focus Survey and Research | December 5, 2011 | 39.0% | 32.9% | 7.0% | 21.2% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qm34ZsbZjM China Times] | December 5, 2011 | 43.7% | 37.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | | Shih Hsin University | December 5, 2011 | 33.9% | 28.6% | 8.3% | 30.7% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y74mNqX657Y China Times] | December 6, 2011 | 42.0% | 36.9% | 9.8% | 11.3% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4VvMgOljyQ China Times] | December 7, 2011 | 43.2% | 36.3% | 9.0% | 11.5% | | Taipei University of Education | December 7, 2011 | 35.5% | 27.7% | 7.2% | 29.6% | | TVBS News | December 7, 2011 | 41% | 37% | 8% | 14% | | Master Survey and Research | December 8, 2011 | 35.4% | 35.9% | 10.8% | 17.9% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLq9q-JnjLI China Times] | December 8, 2011 | 43.9% | 35.9% | 8.9% | 11.3% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t12JPVJL40o China Times] | December 9, 2011 | 43.2% | 36.4% | 8.7% | 11.7% | | TVBS News | December 10, 2011 | 39% | 39% | 6% | 16% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t12JPVJL40o China Times] | December 10, 2011 | 42.7% | 35.1% | 7.1% | 15.1% | | United Daily News | December 10, 2011 | 40% | 33% | 10% | 16% | | United Daily News | December 12, 2011 | 42% | 35% | 10% | 13% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPgFUX-L1yo China Times] | December 12, 2011 | 41.3% | 36.8% | 8.4% | 13.5% | | Focus Survey and Research | December 12, 2011 | 36.3% | 36.0% | 5.9% | 20.1% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wi3-_UgAKSs China Times] | December 13, 2011 | 40.1% | 39.1% | 8.0% | 12.8% | | TVBS News | December 14, 2011 | 40% | 38% | 7% | 15% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jACGgewRM7c China Times] | December 14, 2011 | 39.7% | 38.7% | 8.2% | 13.4% | | Liberty Times | December 15, 2011 | 34.50% | 33.26% | 10.81% | 21.43% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5wpcLa3Uek China Times] | December 15, 2011 | 41.8% | 37.1% | 8.2% | 13.8% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsxEOYAddLI China Times] | December 16, 2011 | 41.8% | 36.7% | 8.2% | 14.2% | | TVBS News | December 17, 2011 | 40% | 36% | 7% | 17% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20120108041227/http://news.chinatimes.com/focus/501010166/112011121800089.html China Times] | December 17, 2011 | 38.5% | 37.7% | 7.7% | 16% | | United Daily News | December 17, 2011 | 41% | 33% | 10% | 15% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BvttwfkZNQ China Times] | December 19, 2011 | 41.9% | 37.3% | 7.2% | 13.6% | | Focus Survey and Research | December 19, 2011 | 36.5% | 33.4% | 8.5% | 21.6% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbz-ZctSok4 China Times] | December 20, 2011 | 42.2% | 36.8% | 7.4% | 13.6% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPtozrQlPDk China Times] | December 21, 2011 | 42.3% | 37.1% | 6.6% | 14.0% | | Taipei University of Education | December 21, 2011 | 40.2% | 32.2% | 5.5% | 22.1% | | China Times | December 22, 2011 | 42.3% | 36.0% | 7.0% | 14.7% | | Liberty Times | December 22, 2011 | 35.77% | 35.05% | 9.70% | 19.48% | | TVBS | December 22, 2011 | 41% | 35% | 8% | 16% | | China Times | December 23, 2011 | 42.2% | 36.2% | 6.8% | 14.8% | | Master Survey and Research | December 24, 2011 | 39.5% | 39.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | | Decision Making Research | December 24, 2011 | 38.3% | 40.4% | 7.3% | 14.0% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bz4rv6ZI2sE China Times] | December 26, 2011 | 41.3% | 37.1% | 7.5% | 14.1% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bz4rv6ZI2sE China Times] | December 26, 2011 | 41.6% | 36.8% | 6.8% | 14.8% | | Trendspotting Survey and Research | December 26, 2011 | 33.3% | 29.0% | 7.0% | 30.7% | | TVBS News | December 27, 2011 | 44% | 38% | 6% | 12% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyJ9lOCe0ic China Times] | December 27, 2011 | 40.7% | 38.0% | 7.7% | 13.6% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-AZs5Gd2eY China Times] | December 28, 2011 | 41.3% | 38.5% | 6.6% | 13.6% | | TVBS News | December 29, 2011 | 44% | 35% | 7% | 13% | | Focus Survey and Research | December 29, 2011 | 37.6% | 31.5% | 6.6% | 24.4% | | Focus Survey and Research | December 30, 2011 | 35.9% | 32.6% | 7.3% | 24.4% | | Taipei University of Education | December 30, 2011 | 42.2% | 35.7% | 6.2% | 15.9% | | Focus Survey and Research | December 31, 2011 | 37.1% | 33.3% | 6.9% | 22.7% | | Master Survey and Research | December 31, 2011 | 38.8% | 37.8% | 11.6% | 11.8% | | Focus Survey and Research | January 1, 2011 | 37.2% | 33.1% | 7.2% | 22.5% | | United Daily News | January 2, 2012 | 44% | 36% | 7% | 13% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20120107192859/http://news.chinatimes.com/focus/11050105/112012010300086.html China Times] | January 2, 2012 | 39.5 | 36.5% | 5.8% | 18.2% | | Focus Survey and Research | January 2, 2012 | 37.2% | 33.1% | 7.2% | 22.5% | | TVBS News | January 2, 2012 | 45% | 37% | 6% | 13% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20120107192859/http://news.chinatimes.com/focus/11050105/112012010300086.html China Times] | January 2, 2012 | 43.3% | 38.4% | 6.8% | 11.5% |
Television debates performance ratingNote that the percentages reflect the proportion of valid respondents who rated a particular candidate as performing the best during the presidential and vice-presidential television debates. Presidential debates| Forecast Source | Date of Release | Ma Ying-jeou | Tsai Ing-wen | James Soong | Undecided |
|---|
| [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UnG_h0dDpQ China Times] | December 3, 2011 | 31.7% | 29.8% | 13.6% | 24.9% | | Apple Daily | December 3, 2011 | 47.61% | 35.49% | 14.37% | 2.53% | | United Daily News | December 3, 2011 | 39% | 25% | 15% | 6% | | TVBS News | December 3, 2011 | 30% | 27% | 20% | 23% | | Shih Hsin University | December 3, 2011 | 30.5% | 31.0% | 14.5% | 24.1% | | [https://web.archive.org/web/20120108070648/http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/11050501/112011121800174.html China Times] | December 17, 2011 | 29.1% | 32.1% | 12.5% | 26.3% | | United Daily News | December 17, 2011 | 36% | 29% | 17% | 4% | | TVBS News | December 17, 2011 | 28% | 33% | 15% | 24% | | Focus Survey and Research | December 19, 2011 | 33.9% | 37.7% | 14.1% | 14.3% | | I-tel Survey and Research | December 20, 2011 | 40.10% | 50.61% | 9.29% | － |
Vice-presidential debates| Forecast Source | Date of Release | Wu Den-yih | Su Jia-chyuan | Lin Ruey-shiung | Undecided |
|---|
| [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t12JPVJL40o China Times] | December 10, 2011 | 35.3% | 33.7% | 4.4% | 26.6% | | TVBS News | December 10, 2011 | 38% | 39% | 6% | 17% | | United Daily News | December 10, 2011 | 40% | 30% | 9% | 5% | | Focus Survey and Research | December 12, 2011 | 33.8% | 38.4% | 6.5% | 21.3% |
Election forecastingPolling firm forecasts| Forecast Source | Date of Release | Voter Turnout | Tsai Ing-wen | Ma Ying-jeou | James Soong |
|---|
| [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-nJwyhkFOM Global Views Survey and Research] | June 15, 2011 | 75.3% | 51.8% | 48.2% | — | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-nJwyhkFOM Global Views Survey and Research] | June 22, 2011 | — | 53.2% | 46.8% | — | | Democratic Progressive Party | July 27, 2011 | 75% | 50.1% | 49.9% | — | | Global Views Survey and Research | August 16, 2011 | — | 53% | 47% | — | | Global Views Survey and Research | October 12, 2011 | — | 52% | 48% | — | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqmmZqWjkno China Times] | November 1, 2011 | — | 41% | 47% | 12% | | Gallup Market Research | November 6, 2011 | — | 43.1% | 44.2% | 12.8% | | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VF1wE6vkG5E China Times] | November 10, 2011 | — | 42.2% | 46.0% | 11.8% | | TVBS News | November 10, 2011 | 76.8% | 47.3% | 45.8% | 6.9% | | Gallup Market Research | December 1, 2011 | － | 42.16% | 46.13% | 11.71% | | TVBS News | December 7, 2011 | 78.9% | 47% | 48% | 5% | | Gallup Market Research | December 14, 2011 | － | 41.6% | 48.2% | 10.3% | | TVBS News | December 22, 2011 | 80.3% | 46% | 48% | 6% | | TVBS News | December 29, 2011 | 77.9% | 45% | 50% | 5% | | Democratic Progressive Party | January 2, 2012 | 79% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
Prediction market forecastsNote that as the election forecast reports released by the National Chengchi University are based on models that involve the use of prediction markets as raw data, as opposed to opinion polling, the percentages may not add up to 100%.[2] | Forecast Source | Date of Release | Tsai Ing-wen | Ma Ying-jeou | James Soong |
|---|
| National Chengchi University | April 27, 2011 | 50.5% | 49.9% | — | | National Chengchi University | May 4, 2011 | 50.6% | 47.9% | — | | National Chengchi University | May 20, 2011 | 51.3% | 48.0% | — | | National Chengchi University | June 13, 2011 | 50.9% | 48.4% | — | | National Chengchi University | August 1, 2011 | 46.8% | 49.4% | — | | National Chengchi University | August 8, 2011 | 46.3% | 48.2% | — | | National Chengchi University | August 15, 2011 | 45.7% | 48.5% | — | | National Chengchi University | August 29, 2011 | 49.4% | 50.3% | — | | National Chengchi University | September 9, 2011 | 47.9% | 51.4% | — | | National Chengchi University | September 27, 2011 | 47.2% | 49.5% | — | | National Chengchi University | October 11, 2011 | 46.2% | 51.5% | — | | National Chengchi University | October 21, 2011 | 49.2% | 49.6% | — | | National Chengchi University | October 26, 2011 | 49.6% | 49.6% | — | | National Chengchi University | November 1, 2011 | 48.9% | 48.4% | 4.4% | | National Chengchi University | November 7, 2011 | 49.5% | 48.3% | 7.5% | | National Chengchi University | November 11, 2011 | 49.9% | 46.1% | 7.5% | | National Chengchi University | November 15, 2011 | 49.5% | 46.1% | 8.4% | | National Chengchi University | November 17, 2011 | 50.0% | 46.1% | 8.1% | | National Chengchi University | November 22, 2011 | 48.6% | 44.1% | 8.2% | | National Chengchi University | November 28, 2011 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 10.1% | | National Chengchi University | December 2, 2011 | 49.9% | 41.9% | 11.7% | | National Chengchi University | December 4, 2011 | 50.1% | 42.1% | 10.8% | | National Chengchi University | December 7, 2011 | 50.1% | 42.6% | 11.2% | | National Chengchi University | December 11, 2011 | 50.3% | 41.6% | 10.9% | | National Chengchi University | December 16, 2011 | 51.7% | 41.4% | 9.1% | | National Chengchi University | December 18, 2011 | 51.9% | 41.6% | 8.6% | | National Chengchi University | December 21, 2011 | 51.3% | 42.0% | 8.3% | | National Chengchi University | December 26, 2011 | 50.4% | 43.0% | 7.7% | | National Chengchi University | December 29, 2011 | 50.5% | 44.1% | 7.4% | | National Chengchi University | January 2, 2012 | 50.3% | 43.6% | 10.1% | | National Chengchi University | January 3, 2012 | 49.8% | 42.6% | 10.7% |
Election forecast maps| Forecast Source | National Chengchi University | National Chengchi University | National Chengchi University | | Date of Release | September 9, 2011 | September 27, 2011 | November 11, 2011 | | Forecast Map | | Date of Release | November 17, 2011 | December 16, 2011 | December 21, 2011 | | Forecast Map | |
| Forecast Source | National Chengchi University{{dead link>date=March 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} | National Chengchi University{{dead link>date=March 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} | National Chengchi University{{dead link>date=March 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} | | Date of Release | December 26, 2011 | January 2, 2012 | January 3, 2012 | | Forecast Map | | | Legend | {{legend|#a8e61d|Municipalities, counties and cities where Tsai Ing-Wen is forecast to lead.}}{{legend|#4d6df3|Municipalities, counties and cities where Ma Ying-Jeou is forecast to lead.}}{{legend|#FFA93A|Municipalities, counties and cities where James Soong is forecast to lead.}} |
References1. ^{{cite web |url= http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2006/12/23/2003341630 |title=Gallup vs Gallup Taiwan|first=Chris |last=Stewart |work=Taipei Times|date=December 23, 2006|accessdate=January 11, 2012}}
2. ^The Exchange of Future Events, The Center for Prediction Markets, National Chengchi University, November 17, 2011
External links- Apple Daily Polls
- China Times Survey and Research Center
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20111208021049/http://survey.eracom.com.tw/item/i24.xml Era News Survey Center]
- Global Views Survey and Research Center
- Liberty Times
- TVBS News Poll Center
- United Daily Times
{{Politics of the Republic of China}}{{Republic of China elections}} 4 : 2012 in Taiwan|2012 elections in Taiwan|Democratic Progressive Party|Opinion polling for elections |