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词条 Post-election pendulum for the 1996 Victorian state election
释义

  1. Notes

  2. References

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1996.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
Ballarat EastBarry TraynorLIB0.0%
OakleighDenise McGillLIB0.8%
CarrumDavid LeanLIB0.8%
Ballarat WestPaul JenkinsLIB1.4%
NarracanFlorian AndrighettoLIB1.6%
TullamarineBernie FinnLIB3.0%
Frankston EastPeter McLellan{{ref label|FraE|4|4}}LIB3.1%
GeelongAnn HendersonLIB3.5%
SeymourMarie TehanLIB4.2%
RiponSteve ElderLIB4.6%
PrahranLeonie BurkeLIB4.6%
MordiallocGeoff LeighLIB4.7%
BentleighInga PeulichLIB4.7%
Bendigo EastMichael JohnLIB5.0%
MonbulkSteve McArthurLIB5.2%
MitchamRoger Pescott{{ref label|Mitc|2|2}}LIB5.3%
BerwickRobert DeanLIB5.3%
BellarineGarry SpryLIB5.5%
Fairly safe
ElthamWayne PhilipsLIB6.8%
BayswaterGordon AshleyLIB7.5%
GisborneTom ReynoldsLIB7.8%
KnoxHurtle LuptonLIB7.9%
PolwarthIan SmithLIB8.1%
DromanaMartin DixonLIB8.1%
BurwoodJeff KennettLIB8.6%
CranbourneGary RoweLIB9.1%
BennettswoodGeoff ColemanLIB9.2%
CaulfieldHelen ShardeyLIB9.3%
Safe
South BarwonAlister PatersonLIB10.2%
Box HillRobert ClarkLIB10.3%
PortlandDenis NapthineLIB10.4%
Forest HillJohn RichardsonLIB10.5%
PakenhamRob MaclellanLIB11.1%
MorningtonRobin CooperLIB11.3%
MooroolbarkLorraine ElliottLIB12.2%
Gippsland WestAlan Brown{{ref label|GipW|1|1}}LIB12.6%
EvelynJim PlowmanLIB12.7%
WantirnaKim WellsLIB13.1%
HawthornPhil GudeLIB13.6%
WarrnamboolJohn McGrathNAT13.8%
WarrandytePhil HoneywoodLIB13.9%
SandringhamMurray ThompsonLIB14.3%
BulleenDavid PerrinLIB14.6%
BenambraTony PlowmanLIB14.9%
KewJan WadeLIB15.0%
DoncasterVictor PertonLIB15.0%
Gippsland EastDavid TreasureNAT15.2%
BenallaPat McNamaraNAT15.3%
FrankstonAndrea McCallLIB15.4%
Glen WaverleyRoss SmithLIB15.7%
MalvernRobert DoyleLIB17.6%
BrightonAlan StockdaleLIB18.1%
Swan HillBarry SteggallNAT19.0%
Gippsland SouthPeter RyanNAT19.4%
SheppartonDon KilgourNAT19.6%
Very safe
WimmeraBill McGrathNAT21.2%
Murray ValleyKen JasperNAT22.4%
RodneyNoel MaughanNAT26.1%
LABOR SEATS
Marginal
WerribeeMary DouglasALP0.8%
IvanhoeCraig LangdonALP1.6%
Yan YeanAndre HaermeyerALP1.6%
Bendigo WestBob CameronALP1.7%
Dandenong NorthJan WilsonALP2.2%
BundooraSherryl GarbuttALP2.6%
MorwellKeith HamiltonALP2.7%
DandenongJohn PandazopoulosALP3.3%
EssendonJudy MaddiganALP3.4%
NiddrieRob HullsALP4.4%
Fairly safe
SpringvaleEddie MicallefALP7.9%
Geelong NorthPeter LoneyALP8.1%
AltonaLynne KoskyALP8.2%
Albert ParkJohn ThwaitesALP8.8%
ClaytonHong LimALP9.6%
Safe
MitchamTony Robinson{{ref label|Mitc|2|2}}ALP10.5%
Pascoe ValeChristine CampbellALP11.1%
KeilorGeorge SeitzALP11.6%
MeltonDavid CunninghamALP12.2%
Mill ParkAlex AndrianopoulosALP13.9%
NorthcoteMary Delahunty{{ref label|Ncote|3|3}}ALP15.0%
PrestonMichael LeightonALP15.3%
WilliamstownSteve BracksALP15.6%
MelbourneNeil ColeALP15.9%
CoburgCarlo CarliALP16.9%
RichmondDemetri DollisALP17.3%
SunshineIan BakerALP19.1%
FootscrayBruce MildenhallALP19.4%
NorthcoteTony Sheehan{{ref label|Ncote|3|3}}ALP19.9%
Very safe
ThomastownPeter BatchelorALP22.0%
BroadmeadowsJohn BrumbyALP25.1%
INDEPENDENT & OTHER SEATS
Gippsland WestSusan Davies{{ref label|GipW|1|1}}IND v LIB0.3%
MilduraRussell SavageIND v LIB20.9%

Notes

{{note label|GipW|1|1}} In December 1996, the Liberal member for Gippsland West, Alan Brown, resigned. Independent candidate Susan Davies won the resulting by-election on 1 February 1997.

{{note label|Mitc|2|2}} On 11 November 1997, the Liberal member for Mitcham, Roger Pescott, resigned. Labor candidate Tony Robinson won the resulting by-election on 13 December 1997.

{{note label|Ncote|3|3}} On 3 July 1998, the Labor member for Northcote, Tony Sheehan, resigned. Labor candidate Mary Delahunty won the resulting state by-election on 15 August 1998.

{{note label|FraE|4|4}} The member for Frankston East, Peter McLellan, was elected as a member of the Liberal Party, but resigned on 24 July 1998 and subsequently served out the remainder of his term as an independent.

References

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1 : Pendulums for Victorian state elections

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