释义 |
- Notes
- References
The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1996. "Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS | Marginal | Ballarat East | Barry Traynor | LIB | 0.0% | Oakleigh | Denise McGill | LIB | 0.8% | Carrum | David Lean | LIB | 0.8% | Ballarat West | Paul Jenkins | LIB | 1.4% | Narracan | Florian Andrighetto | LIB | 1.6% | Tullamarine | Bernie Finn | LIB | 3.0% | Frankston East | Peter McLellan{{ref label|FraE|4|4}} | LIB | 3.1% | Geelong | Ann Henderson | LIB | 3.5% | Seymour | Marie Tehan | LIB | 4.2% | Ripon | Steve Elder | LIB | 4.6% | Prahran | Leonie Burke | LIB | 4.6% | Mordialloc | Geoff Leigh | LIB | 4.7% | Bentleigh | Inga Peulich | LIB | 4.7% | Bendigo East | Michael John | LIB | 5.0% | Monbulk | Steve McArthur | LIB | 5.2% | Mitcham | Roger Pescott{{ref label|Mitc|2|2}} | LIB | 5.3% | Berwick | Robert Dean | LIB | 5.3% | Bellarine | Garry Spry | LIB | 5.5% | Fairly safe | Eltham | Wayne Philips | LIB | 6.8% | Bayswater | Gordon Ashley | LIB | 7.5% | Gisborne | Tom Reynolds | LIB | 7.8% | Knox | Hurtle Lupton | LIB | 7.9% | Polwarth | Ian Smith | LIB | 8.1% | Dromana | Martin Dixon | LIB | 8.1% | Burwood | Jeff Kennett | LIB | 8.6% | Cranbourne | Gary Rowe | LIB | 9.1% | Bennettswood | Geoff Coleman | LIB | 9.2% | Caulfield | Helen Shardey | LIB | 9.3% | Safe | South Barwon | Alister Paterson | LIB | 10.2% | Box Hill | Robert Clark | LIB | 10.3% | Portland | Denis Napthine | LIB | 10.4% | Forest Hill | John Richardson | LIB | 10.5% | Pakenham | Rob Maclellan | LIB | 11.1% | Mornington | Robin Cooper | LIB | 11.3% | Mooroolbark | Lorraine Elliott | LIB | 12.2% | Gippsland West | Alan Brown{{ref label|GipW|1|1}} | LIB | 12.6% | Evelyn | Jim Plowman | LIB | 12.7% | Wantirna | Kim Wells | LIB | 13.1% | Hawthorn | Phil Gude | LIB | 13.6% | Warrnambool | John McGrath | NAT | 13.8% | Warrandyte | Phil Honeywood | LIB | 13.9% | Sandringham | Murray Thompson | LIB | 14.3% | Bulleen | David Perrin | LIB | 14.6% | Benambra | Tony Plowman | LIB | 14.9% | Kew | Jan Wade | LIB | 15.0% | Doncaster | Victor Perton | LIB | 15.0% | Gippsland East | David Treasure | NAT | 15.2% | Benalla | Pat McNamara | NAT | 15.3% | Frankston | Andrea McCall | LIB | 15.4% | Glen Waverley | Ross Smith | LIB | 15.7% | Malvern | Robert Doyle | LIB | 17.6% | Brighton | Alan Stockdale | LIB | 18.1% | Swan Hill | Barry Steggall | NAT | 19.0% | Gippsland South | Peter Ryan | NAT | 19.4% | Shepparton | Don Kilgour | NAT | 19.6% | Very safe | Wimmera | Bill McGrath | NAT | 21.2% | Murray Valley | Ken Jasper | NAT | 22.4% | Rodney | Noel Maughan | NAT | 26.1% | |
LABOR SEATS | Marginal | Werribee | Mary Douglas | ALP | 0.8% | Ivanhoe | Craig Langdon | ALP | 1.6% | Yan Yean | Andre Haermeyer | ALP | 1.6% | Bendigo West | Bob Cameron | ALP | 1.7% | Dandenong North | Jan Wilson | ALP | 2.2% | Bundoora | Sherryl Garbutt | ALP | 2.6% | Morwell | Keith Hamilton | ALP | 2.7% | Dandenong | John Pandazopoulos | ALP | 3.3% | Essendon | Judy Maddigan | ALP | 3.4% | Niddrie | Rob Hulls | ALP | 4.4% | Fairly safe | Springvale | Eddie Micallef | ALP | 7.9% | Geelong North | Peter Loney | ALP | 8.1% | Altona | Lynne Kosky | ALP | 8.2% | Albert Park | John Thwaites | ALP | 8.8% | Clayton | Hong Lim | ALP | 9.6% | Safe | Mitcham | Tony Robinson{{ref label|Mitc|2|2}} | ALP | 10.5% | Pascoe Vale | Christine Campbell | ALP | 11.1% | Keilor | George Seitz | ALP | 11.6% | Melton | David Cunningham | ALP | 12.2% | Mill Park | Alex Andrianopoulos | ALP | 13.9% | Northcote | Mary Delahunty{{ref label|Ncote|3|3}} | ALP | 15.0% | Preston | Michael Leighton | ALP | 15.3% | Williamstown | Steve Bracks | ALP | 15.6% | Melbourne | Neil Cole | ALP | 15.9% | Coburg | Carlo Carli | ALP | 16.9% | Richmond | Demetri Dollis | ALP | 17.3% | Sunshine | Ian Baker | ALP | 19.1% | Footscray | Bruce Mildenhall | ALP | 19.4% | Northcote | Tony Sheehan{{ref label|Ncote|3|3}} | ALP | 19.9% | Very safe | Thomastown | Peter Batchelor | ALP | 22.0% | Broadmeadows | John Brumby | ALP | 25.1% | INDEPENDENT & OTHER SEATS | Gippsland West | Susan Davies{{ref label|GipW|1|1}} | IND v LIB | 0.3% | Mildura | Russell Savage | IND v LIB | 20.9% |
Notes{{note label|GipW|1|1}} In December 1996, the Liberal member for Gippsland West, Alan Brown, resigned. Independent candidate Susan Davies won the resulting by-election on 1 February 1997. {{note label|Mitc|2|2}} On 11 November 1997, the Liberal member for Mitcham, Roger Pescott, resigned. Labor candidate Tony Robinson won the resulting by-election on 13 December 1997. {{note label|Ncote|3|3}} On 3 July 1998, the Labor member for Northcote, Tony Sheehan, resigned. Labor candidate Mary Delahunty won the resulting state by-election on 15 August 1998. {{note label|FraE|4|4}} The member for Frankston East, Peter McLellan, was elected as a member of the Liberal Party, but resigned on 24 July 1998 and subsequently served out the remainder of his term as an independent. References{{refbegin}}- {{cite web|last=Green|first=Antony|authorlink=Antony Green|title=1996 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results|url=http://www.abc.net.au/elections/archive/vic/VIC1996_ResultsBook.pdf|publisher=ABC Election Unit|date=December 1998|accessdate=24 December 2011}}
- {{cite web|last=Green|first=Antony|authorlink=Antony Green|title=1999 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results|url=http://www.abc.net.au/elections/archive/vic/VIC1999_ResultsBook.pdf|publisher=ABC Election Unit|date=June 2001|accessdate=24 December 2011}}
{{refend}} 1 : Pendulums for Victorian state elections |