“Spyros Makridakis”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

Makridakis was part of the Greek Sailing Team in the 1960 Olympic Games and studied at the Graduate School of Industrial Studies in Piraeus (University of Piraeus, present name). After that, he joined New York University where he obtained a Ph.D. in 1969.^[1] He has held a number of teaching and research positions including positions as research fellow at IIM Berlin and Stanford University and a visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT.^[1] He joined INSEAD (Fontainebleau, France) in 1970 and is currently a Professor at the University of Nicosia in Cyprus and an Emeritus Professor at INSEAD that he joined in 1970. In addition to teaching and consulting expertise, he has also authored, or co-authored, 24 books including Forecasting, Planning and Strategy for the 21st Century (The Free Press), Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rd ed. and Forecasting Methods for Management, 5th ed. (Wiley, translated in twelve languages and sold more than 120,000 copies). He has also published more than 120 articles and book chapters. He was the founding chief editor of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting. Furthermore, he has won the “Best Teacher Award” at INSEAD twice.

Spyros’ current interest centers on the uses and limitations of forecasting and what we can do with the resulting uncertainty and risk given our inability to accurately predict a wide range of future events (e.g. the 2000 burst of the Internet bubble or the 2007-2009 major financial crisis). In addition, he is interested in medical decision making by comparing the costs and benefits of treatment. These and similar issues are dealt with in the book Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You (co-authored with Robin Hogarth and Anil Gaba) and in a special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on “Decision Making and Planning Under Low Levels of Predictability” (co-edited with Nassim Taleb).

Contributions to forecasting

Empirical testing of forecasting accuracy through competitions and time series compilation

A 1979 paper by Makridakis and Hibon compared 111 time series from a variety of different sources in order to determine the relative accuracy of different forecasting methods, and came to the conclusion that simple methods, such as exponential smoothing, outperformed complicated ones.^[3]^[7] This was followed with publication of results from three Makridakis Competitions: the M-competition in 1982,^[8]^[9] the M-2 competition in 1993,^[10] and the M-3 competition in 2000.^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]

Service to the forecasting community

Apart from organizing the Makridakis Competitions, Makridakis was one of the founders and the first editor-in-chief of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting, a publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (he was editor-in-chief from 1982 to 1987).^[11]

Books and popular articles

Makridakis is author of a number of books on forecasting and statistical techniques including:^[2]

Makridakis, Hogarth, and Gaba (authors of the Dance with Chance book) also co-authored an article for the Winter 2010 issue of MIT Sloan Management Review.^[13]

See also

References

1. ^¹²{{cite web|url=http://www.insead.edu/facultyresearch/faculty/profiles/smakridakis/|title = Spyros Makridakis|publisher = INSEAD|accessdate = April 19, 2014}}
2. ^¹{{cite web|url=https://www.amazon.com/Spyros-G.-Makridakis/e/B001HD1AE4|title = Spyros G. Makridakis|accessdate = April 19, 2014}}
3. ^¹²{{cite journal|title = The M-3 Competition: results, conclusions, and implications|last = Makridakis|first = Spyros|last2 = Hibon|first2 = Michele|date = October–December 2000|accessdate = April 19, 2014|journal = International Journal of Forecasting|volume = 16|issue = 4|pages = 451–476|doi=10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00057-1|url = http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/files/pdf/Makridakia-The%20M3%20Competition.pdf}}
4. ^¹{{cite journal|title = The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results|doi = 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2004.10.003|last = Koning|first = Alex J.|last2 = Frances|first2 = Philip Hans|last3 = Hibon|first3 = Michele|last4 = Stekler|first4 = H. O.|date = July–September 2005|journal = International Journal of Forecasting|volume = 21|issue = 3|pages = 397–409}}
5. ^¹{{cite journal|title = Another look at measures of forecast accuracy|last = Hyndman|first = Rob J.|last2 = Koehler|first2 = Anne B.|volume = 22|issue = 4|date = October–December 2006|url=http://robjhyndman.com/papers/another-look-at-measures-of-forecast-accuracy/ |accessdate = April 19, 2014|journal = International Journal of Forecasting}}
6. ^¹{{cite web|url=http://forecasters.org/resources/time-series-data/m3-competition/|title = M3-competition (full data)|accessdate = April 19, 2014|publisher = International Institute of Forecasters}}
7. ^{{cite journal|title = Accuracy of forecasting: an empirical investigation (with discussion)|publisher = Journal of the Royal Statistical Society|volume = A 142|pages = 97–145|last = Makridakis|first = Spyros|last2 = Hibon|first2 = Michele|year = 1979}}
8. ^{{cite journal|title = The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: results of a forecasting competition|journal = Journal of Forecasting|volume = 1|issue = 2|date = April–June 1982|pages = 111–153|author = Spyros Makridakis|doi = 10.1002/for.3980010202|display-authors=etal}}
9. ^{{cite journal|title = The competition to end all competitions|last = Newbold|first = Paul|year = 1983|publisher = Journal of Forecasting|volume = 2|pages = 276–279}}
10. ^{{cite journal|title = The M-2 Competition: a real-time judgmentally based forecasting study|journal = International Journal of Forecasting|author = Spyros Makridakis|date = April 1993|volume = 9|pages = 5–22|doi = 10.1016/0169-2070(93)90044-N|display-authors=etal}}
11. ^{{cite web|url = http://www.forecasters.org/ijf/pasteditors|title = Past Editors|publisher = International Institute of Forecasters, International Journal of Forecasting section|deadurl = yes|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20110210095732/http://www.forecasters.org/ijf/pasteditors|archivedate = 2011-02-10|df = }}
12. ^{{cite web|url=https://thecriticalthinker.wordpress.com/2009/09/11/randomness-activists/|title = Randomness Activists|date = September 11, 2009|accessdate = April 19, 2014}}
13. ^{{cite journal|url=http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/why-forecasts-fail-what-to-do-instead/|title = Why Forecasts Fail. What to Do Instead|date = January 1, 2010|accessdate = April 19, 2014|last= Makridakis|first = Spyros|last2 = Hogarth|first2 = Robin M.|last3 = Gaba|first3 = Anil|journal = MIT Sloan Management Review}}