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词条 Time consistency (finance)
释义

  1. Time consistency and financial risk

     Mathematical definition  Equivalent definitions  Construction  Examples  Value at risk and average value at risk  Time consistent alternative  Dynamic superhedging price  Dynamic entropic risk   Continuous time  

  2. References

{{about|the property which maintains consistency in the measurement of financial risk over time|the property in game theory|dynamic inconsistency}}

Time consistency in the context of finance is the property of not having mutually contradictory evaluations of risk at different points in time. This property implies that if investment A is considered riskier than B at some future time, then A will also be considered riskier than B at every prior time.

Time consistency and financial risk

Time consistency is a property in financial risk related to dynamic risk measures. The purpose of the time the consistent property is to categorize the risk measures which satisfy the condition that if portfolio (A) is riskier than portfolio (B) at some time in the future, then it is guaranteed to be riskier at any time prior to that point. This is an important property since if it were not to hold then there is an event (with probability of occurring greater than 0) such that B is riskier than A at time although it is certain that A is riskier than B at time . As the name suggests a time inconsistent risk measure can lead to inconsistent behavior in financial risk management.

{{Technical|date=February 2018}}

Mathematical definition

A dynamic risk measure on is time consistent if and implies .[1]

Equivalent definitions

Equality

For all

Recursive

For all

Acceptance Set

For all where is the time acceptance set and [2]

Cocycle condition (for
//convex risk measure">convex risk measures)

For all where is the minimal penalty function (where is an acceptance set and denotes the essential supremum) at time and .[3]

Construction

Due to the recursive property it is simple to construct a time consistent risk measure. This is done by composing one-period measures over time. This would mean that:

  • [1]

Examples

Value at risk and average value at risk

Both dynamic value at risk and dynamic average value at risk are not a time consistent risk measures.

Time consistent alternative

The time consistent alternative to the dynamic average value at risk with parameter at time t is defined by

such that .[4]

Dynamic superhedging price

The dynamic superhedging price is a time consistent risk measure.[5]

Dynamic entropic risk

The dynamic entropic risk measure is a time consistent risk measure if the risk aversion parameter is constant.[5]

Continuous time

In continuous time, a time consistent coherent risk measure can be given by:

for a sublinear choice of function where denotes a g-expectation. If the function is convex, then the corresponding risk measure is convex.[6]

References

1. ^{{cite journal|last=Cheridito|first=Patrick|last2=Stadje|first2=Mitja|date=October 2008|title=Time-inconsistency of VaR and time-consistent alternatives|url=http://www.princeton.edu/~dito/papers/timeincVaR_Oct08.pdf|accessdate=November 29, 2010|format=pdf}}
2. ^{{cite journal|last=Acciaio|first=Beatrice|last2=Penner|first2=Irina|date=February 22, 2010|title=Dynamic risk measures|url=http://wws.mathematik.hu-berlin.de/~penner/Acciaio_Penner.pdf|accessdate=July 22, 2010|format=pdf|deadurl=yes|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110902182345/http://wws.mathematik.hu-berlin.de/~penner/Acciaio_Penner.pdf|archivedate=September 2, 2011|df=}}
3. ^{{cite journal|last=Föllmer|first=Hans|last2=Penner|first2=Irina|title=Convex risk measures and the dynamics of their penalty functions|journal=Statistics and decisions|volume=24|issue=1|year=2006|pages=61–96|url=http://www.math.hu-berlin.de/~penner/Foellmer_Penner.pdf|format=pdf|accessdate=June 17, 2012}}{{Dead link|date=July 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=no }}
4. ^{{cite journal|first1=Patrick|last1=Cheridito|first2=Michael|last2=Kupper|title=Composition of time-consistent dynamic monetary risk measures in discrete time|journal=International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance|date=May 2010|url=http://wws.mathematik.hu-berlin.de/~kupper/papers/comp2010.pdf|format=pdf|accessdate=February 4, 2011|deadurl=yes|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110719042954/http://wws.mathematik.hu-berlin.de/~kupper/papers/comp2010.pdf|archivedate=July 19, 2011|df=}}
5. ^{{cite journal|last=Penner|first=Irina|year=2007|title=Dynamic convex risk measures: time consistency, prudence, and sustainability|url=http://wws.mathematik.hu-berlin.de/~penner/penner.pdf|format=pdf|accessdate=February 3, 2011|deadurl=yes|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110719042923/http://wws.mathematik.hu-berlin.de/~penner/penner.pdf|archivedate=July 19, 2011|df=}}
6. ^{{Cite journal | last1 = Rosazza Gianin | first1 = E. | doi = 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2006.01.002 | title = Risk measures via g-expectations | journal = Insurance: Mathematics and Economics | volume = 39 | pages = 19–65 | year = 2006 | pmid = | pmc = }}

1 : Financial risk modeling

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