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词条 2018 Braddon by-election
释义

  1. Background

  2. Key dates

  3. Candidates

  4. Polling

  5. Results

  6. See also

  7. References

  8. External links

{{Infobox election
| election_name = Braddon by-election, 2018
| country = Australia
| type = Parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = Australian federal election, 2016
| previous_year = 2016
| election_date = {{Start date|2018|7|28|df=y}}
| next_election = Australian federal election, 2019|
| next_year = 2019
| turnout =
| registered =
| seats_for_election = The Division of Braddon (Tas) in the House of Representatives
| candidate1 = Justine Keay
| image1 =
| party1 = Australian Labor Party
| percentage1 =
| swing1 =
| candidate2 = Brett Whiteley
| image2 =
| party2 = Liberal Party of Australia
| percentage2 =
| swing2 =


| map_image = File:Division of BRADDON 2016.png
| map_size =
| title = MP
| before_election = Justine Keay
| before_party = Australian Labor Party
| after_election = Justine Keay
| after_party = Australian Labor Party
}}

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Braddon took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Justine Keay.[1]

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate.[2]

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis, Keay and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:

  • 2018 Fremantle by-election
  • 2018 Longman by-election
  • 2018 Mayo by-election
  • 2018 Perth by-election

A redistribution of the Tasmanian federal electoral divisions was completed in 2017, however by-elections are conducted under existing boundaries, as redistributed boundaries do not come in to effect until the subsequent federal election.[5][6]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]

  • Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
  • Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
  • Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates

Candidates (8) in ballot paper order[8]
PartyCandidateBackground
Greens}}| GreensJarrod EdwardsIndigenous land management supervisor.[9]
Shooters and Fishers}}|  SFF Brett Neal Farmer.[10]
Independent}}|  Independent Donna Gibbons Registered nurse and small business owner.[8]
Liberal Democrats}}|  Liberal Democrats Joshua Boag Sheetmetal fabricator. Contested Braddon at the 2016 federal election.[8]
Liberal}}| LiberalBrett WhiteleyOne-term MP for Braddon elected at the 2013 federal election.[11]
Independent}}|  Independent Craig Garland Fisherman. Contested Braddon at the 2018 state election.[12]
People's Party}}| PeopleBruno StrangioHas managed numerous real estate and construction enterprises.[8]
Labor}}| LaborJustine KeayPrevious MP for Braddon elected at the 2016 federal election.[13]

Polling

Braddon by-election polling
DateFirmCommissioned bySampleMoEPrimary voteTPP vote
ALPLIBGRNOTHALPLIB
24−26 July 2018NewspollThe Australian[14]1002±3.1%40%43%5%12%51%49%
19 July 2018ReachTELAus. Forest Products Assoc.[15][16]810±3.4%36.0%42.7%7.0%14.3%52%48%
2 June 2018ReachTELSky News[17]>800±3.4%33%47%6%14%46%54%
2016 election40.0%41.5%6.7%11.7%52.2%47.8%
{{Clear}}

Results

{{further|Electoral results for the Division of Braddon}}{{Election box begin
|title=Braddon by-election: 28 July 2018[18][19]
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Brett Whiteley
|party = Liberal
|votes = 24,645
|percentage = 39.26
|change = −2.24
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Justine Keay
|party = Labor
|votes = 23,218
|percentage = 36.98
|change = −3.07
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Craig Garland
|party = Independent
|votes = 6,633
|percentage = 10.57
|change = +10.57
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Brett Neal
|party = Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
|votes = 2,984
|percentage = 4.75
|change = +4.75
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Jarrod Edwards
|party = Greens
|votes = 2,518
|percentage = 4.01
|change = −2.73
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Donna Gibbons
|party = Independent
|votes = 1,533
|percentage = 2.44
|change = +2.44
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Joshua Boag
|party = Liberal Democrats
|votes = 828
|percentage = 1.32
|change = −0.81
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Bruno Strangio
|party = People's Party
|votes = 421
|percentage = 0.67
|change = 0.67
}}{{Election box formal
|votes = 62,780
|percentage = 94.29
|change = −0.48
}}{{Election box informal
|votes = 3,804
|percentage = 5.71
|change = +0.48
}}{{Election box turnout
|votes = 66,584
|percentage = 90.28
|change = −3.81
}}{{Election box 2pp}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Justine Keay
|party = Labor
|votes = 32,842
|percentage = 52.31
|change = +0.11
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Brett Whiteley
|party = Liberal
|votes = 29,938
|percentage = 47.69
|change = −0.11
}}{{Election box hold AU party|
|winner = Labor
|swing = +0.11
}}{{Election box end}}{{clear}}{{clear}}

See also

  • List of Australian federal by-elections
  • 2017–18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis

References

1. ^Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling: ABC 9 May 2018
2. ^July 2018 Federal By-elections: Antony Green ABC
3. ^Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018
4. ^{{cite news|title=Mark your calendars, the date has been set for five by-elections|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-24/by-elections-date-set-mayo-longman-braddon-perth-fremantle/9758576|accessdate=24 May 2018|work=ABC News|date=24 May 2018|language=en-AU}}
5. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.aec.gov.au/braddon/pva.htm |access-date=10 June 2018 |website=aec.gov.au |title=2018 Braddon by-election}}
6. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2016/tas/index.htm |title=Tasmanian federal redistribution [2016] |access-date=10 June 2018 |website=aec.gov.au}}
7. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.aec.gov.au/braddon/|work=Australian Electoral Commission|title=2018 Braddon by-election}}
8. ^2018 Braddon by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
9. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5456375/greens-braddon-candidate-wants-big-newstart-increase/?src=rss |title=Greens' Braddon candidate Jarrod Edwards wants big Newstart increase |date=8 June 2018 |access-date=10 June 2018 |website=theadvocate.com.au |publisher=Fairfax Media}}
10. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.tasmaniatalks.com.au/the-show/29376-shooters-fishers-and-farmers-party-announce-braddon-by-election-candidate |title=Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party announce Braddon by-election candidate |date=18 June 2018 |access-date=18 June 2018 |website=tasmaniatalks.com.au |publisher=Grant Broadcasters}}
11. ^[https://www.sbs.com.au/news/liberals-name-braddon-by-election-runner Liberals name Braddon by-election runner: SBS 13 May 2018]
12. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/fishing-identity-enters-race-for-byelection-seat/news-story/f1f37e05dd2c74fa3e93be7625a67c6a |title=Fishing identity enters race for by-election seat |website=themercury.com.au |publisher=News Corp |date=2 July 2018 |access-date=2 July 2018}}
13. ^Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money - ABC 10 May 2018
14. ^{{cite|title=Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon |url=https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/07/28/newspoll-51-49-labor-longman-braddon/|accessdate=28 July 2018|date=28 July 2018}}
15. ^{{cite|title=Labor's Justine Keay best placed in close Braddon race, new poll suggests |url=https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5538702/labors-justine-keay-best-placed-in-close-braddon-race-new-poll-suggests/?src=rss|accessdate=22 July 2018|date=21 July 2018}}
16. ^[https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/07/23/super-saturday-yougov-galaxy-reachtel-polls/ Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018]
17. ^{{cite|title=ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman|url=https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/06/03/reachtel-52-48-labor-54-46-liberal-braddon-52-48-lnp-longman/|accessdate=3 June 2018|date=3 June 2018}}
18. ^[https://results.aec.gov.au/22695/Website/HouseDivisionPage-22692-193.htm 2018 Braddon by-election results: AEC]
19. ^2018 Braddon by-election results: ABC

External links

  • [https://www.aec.gov.au/braddon/ 2018 Braddon by-election website: Australian Electoral Commission]
  • 2018 Braddon by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
  • [https://www.pollbludger.net/by-elections/fed-2018-06-braddon.htm 2018 Braddon by-election guide: The Poll Bludger]
  • 2018 Braddon by-election guide: The Tally Room
  • [https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/05/10/by-elections-aplenty/ By-elections aplenty: The Poll Bludger 10 May 2018]
  • [https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/05/24/super-saturday-july-28/ Super Saturday July 28: The Poll Bludger 24 May 2018]
{{Aus by-elections 45th parl}}{{2018 in Australia}}

2 : 2018 elections in Australia|Tasmanian federal by-elections

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