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词条 2018 Longman by-election
释义

  1. Background

  2. Key dates

  3. Candidates

  4. Polling

  5. Results

  6. See also

  7. References

  8. External links

{{short description|Australian federal by-election}}{{Infobox election
| election_name = Longman by-election, 2018
| country = Australia
| type = Parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = Australian federal election, 2016
| previous_year = 2016
| election_date = {{Start date|2018|7|28|df=y}}
| next_election = Australian federal election, 2019|
| next_year = 2019
| turnout =
| registered =
| seats_for_election = The Division of Longman (Qld) in the House of Representatives
| candidate1 = Susan Lamb
| image1 =
| party1 = Australian Labor Party
| percentage1 =
| swing1 =
| candidate2 = Trevor Ruthenberg
| image2 =
| party2 = Liberal National Party of Queensland
| percentage2 =
| swing2 =


| map_image = File:Division of LONGMAN 2016.png
| map_size =
| title = MP
| before_election = Susan Lamb
| before_party = Australian Labor Party
| after_election = Susan Lamb
| after_party = Australian Labor Party
}}

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Longman took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Susan Lamb.[1]

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2]

The Liberal National Party's failure to win this seat for the ruling Coalition has been cited for the downfall of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull almost a month later on August 24. [3]

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis, Lamb and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[4] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[5] The others are:

  • 2018 Braddon by-election
  • 2018 Fremantle by-election
  • 2018 Mayo by-election
  • 2018 Perth by-election
Mark Latham, Labor leader between December 2003 and January 2005, voiced a robocall authorised by Pauline Hanson, in an attempt to discourage Labor voting and instead encouraged minor party voting.[6]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]

  • Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
  • Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
  • Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates

Candidates (11) in ballot paper order[8]
PartyCandidateBackground
Liberal Democrats}}| Liberal DemocratsLloyd RussellBusiness consultant.[9]
Australia First}} | Australia FirstJim SaleamParty leader. Contested Lindsay at the 2016 election and Cook at the 2013 election.[8]
DLP}} | Democratic LabourGregory BellTruck driver.[8]
Independent}} | IndependentJackie PerkinsSelf-employed mobile veterinarian.[10]
Science Party}}| ScienceJames NoonanCriminology and criminal justice graduate.[11]
One Nation}}| One NationMatthew StephenCaboolture businessman. Ran in Sandgate at the 2017 state election.[12]
People's Party}}| PeopleJohn ReeceRan as an independent candidate in Longman at the 2010 federal election.[13]
Labor}}| LaborSusan LambPrevious MP for Longman elected at the 2016 federal election.[14]
Liberal National}}| Liberal NationalTrevor RuthenbergOne-term MP for Kallangur elected at the 2012 state election.[15]
Country Alliance}} | CountryBlair VerrierCertified Practising Accountant (CPA).[16]
Greens}}| GreensGavin BehrensCaboolture father and IT professional. Ran in Morayfield at the 2017 state election.[17]

Polling

Longman by-election polling
DateFirmCommissioned bySampleMoE[18]Primary voteTPP vote
ALPLNPONPGRNOTHUNDALPLNP
24−26 July 2018NewspollThe Australian[19]1015±3.1%40%36%14%5%5%−51%49%
17−19 July 2018ReachTELCourier Mail[20][21]578±4.1%35.8%37.9%13.9%(OTH)4.3%3.9%49%51%
26 June 2018ReachTELCourier Mail[22][23]814±3.4%39.0%35.5%14.7%(OTH)6.6%4.1%49%51%
21 June 2018ReachTELAustralia Institute[24]727±3.6%39.1%34.9%14.7%4.4%3.7%3.2%50%50%
2 June 2018ReachTELSky News[25]>800±3.5%35%38%(OTH)2%14%11%48%52%
10 May 2018ReachTELAustralia Institute[26]1277±2.7%32.5%36.7%15.1%4.9%6.4%4.5%47%53%
2016 election35.4%39.0%9.4%4.4%11.8%50.8%49.2%
{{Clear}}

Results

{{further|Electoral results for the Division of Longman}}{{Election box begin
|title=Longman by-election: 28 July 2018[27][28]
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Susan Lamb
|party = Labor
|votes = 35,203
|percentage = 39.84
|change = +4.45
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Trevor Ruthenberg
|party = Liberal Nationals
|votes = 26,170
|percentage = 29.61
|change = −9.40
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Matthew Stephen
|party = One Nation
|votes = 14,061
|percentage = 15.91
|change = +6.50
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Gavin Behrens
|party = Greens
|votes = 4,264
|percentage = 4.83
|change = +0.44
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Jackie Perkins
|party = Independent
|votes = 2,379
|percentage = 2.69
|change = +2.69
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Lloyd Russell
|party = Liberal Democrats
|votes = 1,762
|percentage = 1.99
|change = +1.99
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Blair Verrier
|party = Australian Country
|votes = 1,387
|percentage = 1.57
|change = +1.57
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Gregory Bell
|party = Democratic Labour
|votes = 1,043
|percentage = 1.18
|change = +1.18
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = James Noonan
|party = Science Party
|votes = 970
|percentage = 1.10
|change = +1.10
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Jim Saleam
|party = Australia First
|votes = 709
|percentage = 0.80
|change = +0.80
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = John Reece
|party = People's Party
|votes = 420
|percentage = 0.48
|change = +0.48
}}{{Election box formal
|votes = 88,368
|percentage = 93.93
|change = +2.46
}}{{Election box informal
|votes = 5,707
|percentage = 6.07
|change = −2.46
}}{{Election box turnout
|votes = 94,075
|percentage = 84.16
|change = −7.52
}}{{Election box 2pp}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Susan Lamb
|party = Labor
|votes = 48,116
|percentage = 54.45
|change = +3.66
}}{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Trevor Ruthenberg
|party = Liberal Nationals
|votes = 40,252
|percentage = 45.55
|change = −3.66
}}{{Election box hold AU party|
|winner = Labor
|swing = +3.66
}}{{Election box end}}

See also

  • List of Australian federal by-elections
  • 2017–18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis

References

1. ^1 Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling: ABC 9 May 2018
2. ^July 2018 Federal By-elections: Antony Green ABC
3. ^ https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/claims-scott-morrison-planned-attack-on-turnbull-for-months/news-story/215f764a19c5cf62cfe97c31d4cc0b3e
4. ^Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018
5. ^{{cite news|title=Mark your calendars, the date has been set for five by-elections|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-24/by-elections-date-set-mayo-longman-braddon-perth-fremantle/9758576|accessdate=24 May 2018|work=ABC News|date=24 May 2018|language=en-AU}}
6. ^{{cite news |title=One Nation unleashes Latham robocall ahead of Queensland by-election |url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/mark-latham-joins-one-nation-longman-campaign-robocall/9959222 |accessdate=9 July 2018 |work=ABC News |date=9 July 2018 |language=en-AU}}
7. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.aec.gov.au/longman/|work=Australian Electoral Commission|title=2018 Longman by-election}}
8. ^1 2 2018 Longman by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
9. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.facebook.com/LibDemQLD/photos/a.791030500951334.1073741828.742844475769937/1662107807176928/?type=3&theater|date=6 June 2018|title=Liberal Democrats QLD|publisher=Liberal Democratic Party}}
10. ^[https://www.facebook.com/dr.jackie.perkins Dr Jackie Perkins: Facebook]
11. ^[https://www.scienceparty.org.au/support_james_noonan Science Party names candidates for 2018 by-elections: 12 June 2018]
12. ^{{cite news|url=http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/steve-dickson-favourite-to-be-one-nation-longman-candidate/news-story/ff747af5931b97f7bfb12f12d689a49c|publisher=Courier-Mail|date=10 May 2018|access-date=12 May 2018|title=Matthew Stephen named as One Nation's Longman candidate}}
13. ^{{cite web|url=http://australianpeoplesparty.com|title=By-election 2018 endorsed candidates|publisher=Australian People's Party}}
14. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-10/labors-leg-up-on-the-liberals-in-the-citizenship-crisis/9748946|title=Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money|publisher=ABC|date=10 May 2018}}
15. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/exnewman-mp-trevor-ruthenberg-gets-the-nod-to-fight-for-longman/news-story/330b5ce7c90644cae041d899c517b1e4|title=Ex-Newman MP Trevor Ruthenberg gets the nod to fight for Longman|publisher=The Australian|date=22 May 2018}}
16. ^2018 Longman by-election: countryparty.org.au
17. ^[https://greens.org.au/qld/person/gavin-behrens Gavin Behrens: greens.org.au]
18. ^[https://goodcalculators.com/margin-of-error-calculator/ Margin of error calculator]
19. ^{{cite|title=Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon |url=https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/07/28/newspoll-51-49-labor-longman-braddon/|accessdate=28 July 2018|date=28 July 2018}}
20. ^[https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/longman-byelection-reachtel-poll-indicates-lnp-will-win/news-story/f95ce64d411d15727c593dda2860758d Longman by-election: ReachTEL poll indicates LNP will win - Courier Mail 21 July 2018]
21. ^[https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/07/23/super-saturday-yougov-galaxy-reachtel-polls/ Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018]
22. ^[https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/longman-byelection-seat-slipping-away-from-labors-susan-lamb/news-story/d9f61ab757f947d2ca93b8fae52bcbc9 Longman by-election: Seat slipping away from Labor’s Susan Lamb - Courier Mail 27 June 2018]
23. ^[https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/longman-reachtel-poll-exclusive-key-electorate-fires-warning-shot-at-shorten/news-story/9ac6d2ff035697b599ef35f772eebacc Longman ReachTEL poll exclusive: Key electorate fires warning shot at Shorten - Courier Mail 27 June 2018]
24. ^Longman and Mayo: New Polling on Company Tax Cuts and Voter Priorities for Government Revenue - The Australia Institute 24 June 2018
25. ^{{cite|title=ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman|url=https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/06/03/reachtel-52-48-labor-54-46-liberal-braddon-52-48-lnp-longman/|accessdate=3 June 2018|date=3 June 2018}}
26. ^{{cite|title=Longman Polling|url=http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/TAI-11May2018-Longman_TAX.pdf|accessdate=12 May 2018|work=The Australia Institute|date=11 May 2018}}
27. ^[https://results.aec.gov.au/22695/Website/HouseDivisionPage-22694-302.htm 2018 Longman by-election results: AEC]
28. ^2018 Longman by-election results: ABC

External links

  • [https://www.aec.gov.au/longman/ 2018 Longman by-election website: Australian Electoral Commission]
  • 2018 Longman by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
  • [https://www.pollbludger.net/by-elections/fed-2018-06-longman.htm 2018 Longman by-election guide: The Poll Bludger]
  • 2018 Longman by-election guide: The Tally Room
  • [https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/05/10/by-elections-aplenty/ By-elections aplenty: The Poll Bludger 10 May 2018]
  • [https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/05/24/super-saturday-july-28/ Super Saturday July 28: The Poll Bludger 24 May 2018]
{{Aus by-elections 45th parl}}{{2018 in Australia}}

2 : 2018 elections in Australia|Queensland federal by-elections
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