“War”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

Modern warfare: Into the Jaws of Death, 1944. Early Modern Warfare: Retreat from Moscow, 1812.}}

War is a state of armed conflict between states, governments, societies and informal paramilitary groups, such as mercenaries, insurgents and militias. It is generally characterized by extreme violence, aggression, destruction, and mortality, using regular or irregular military forces. Warfare refers to the common activities and characteristics of types of war, or of wars in general.^[1] Total war is warfare that is not restricted to purely legitimate military targets, and can result in massive civilian or other non-combatant suffering and casualties.

The scholarly study of war is sometimes called polemology ({{IPAc-en|ˌ|p|ɒ|l|ə|ˈ|m|ɒ|l|ə|dʒ|i}} {{Respell|POL|ə|MOL|ə|jee}}), from the Greek polemos, meaning "war", and -logy, meaning "the study of".

While some scholars see war as a universal and ancestral aspect of human nature,^[2] others argue it is a result of specific socio-cultural or ecological circumstances.^[3]

Etymology

The English word war derives from the 11th century Old English words wyrre and werre, from Old French werre (also guerre as in modern French), in turn from the Frankish *werra, ultimately deriving from the Proto-Germanic *werzō 'mixture, confusion'. The word is related to the Old Saxon werran, Old High German werran, and the German verwirren, meaning “to confuse”, “to perplex”, and “to bring into confusion”.^[4]

Types

War must entail some degree of confrontation using weapons and other military technology and equipment by armed forces employing military tactics and operational art within a broad military strategy subject to military logistics. Studies of war by military theorists throughout military history have sought to identify the philosophy of war, and to reduce it to a military science. Modern military science considers several factors before a national defence policy is created to allow a war to commence: the environment in the area(s) of combat operations, the posture national forces will adopt on the commencement of a war, and the type of warfare troops will be engaged in.

History

The earliest recorded evidence of war belongs to the Mesolithic cemetery Site 117, which has been determined to be approximately 14,000 years old. About forty-five percent of the skeletons there displayed signs of violent death.^[7] Since the rise of the state some 5,000 years ago,^[8] military activity has occurred over much of the globe. The advent of gunpowder and the acceleration of technological advances led to modern warfare. According to Conway W. Henderson, "One source claims that 14,500 wars have taken place between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5 billion lives, leaving only 300 years of peace (Beer 1981: 20)."^[9] An unfavorable review of this estimate^[10] mentions the following regarding one of the proponents of this estimate: "In addition, perhaps feeling that the war casualties figure was improbably high, he changed "approximately 3,640,000,000 human beings have been killed by war or the diseases produced by war" to "approximately 1,240,000,000 human beings...&c."" The lower figure is more plausible,^[11] but could also be on the high side, considering that the 100 deadliest acts of mass violence between 480 BCE and 2002 CE (wars and other man-made disasters with at least 300,000 and up to 66 million victims) claimed about 455 million human lives in total.^[12] Primitive warfare is estimated to have accounted for 15.1 % of deaths and claimed 400 million victims.^[13] Added to the aforementioned (and perhaps too high) figure of 1,240 million between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, this would mean a total of 1,640,000,000 people killed by war (including deaths from famine and disease caused by war) throughout the history and pre-history of mankind. For comparison, an estimated 1,680,000,000 people died from infectious diseases in the 20th century.^[14] Nuclear warfare breaking out in August 1988, when nuclear arsenals were at peak level, and the aftermath thereof, could have reduced human population from 5,150,000,000 by 1,850,000,000 to 3,300,000,000 within a period of about one year, according to a projection that did not consider "the most severe predictions concerning nuclear winter".^[15] This would have been a proportional reduction of the world’s population exceeding the reduction caused in the 14th century by the Black Death, and comparable in proportional terms with the plague’s impact on Europe's population in 1346–53.

In War Before Civilization, Lawrence H. Keeley, a professor at the University of Illinois, says approximately 90–95% of known societies throughout history engaged in at least occasional warfare,^[16] and many fought constantly.^[17]

Keeley describes several styles of primitive combat such as small raids, large raids, and massacres. All of these forms of warfare were used by primitive societies, a finding supported by other researchers.^[18] Keeley explains that early war raids were not well organized, as the participants did not have any formal training. Scarcity of resources meant defensive works were not a cost-effective way to protect the society against enemy raids.^[19]

In Western Europe, since the late 18th century, more than 150 conflicts and about 600 battles have taken place.^[21] During the 20th century, war resulted in a dramatic intensification of the pace of social changes, and was a crucial catalyst for the emergence of the Left as a force to be reckoned with.^[22]

In 1947, in view of the rapidly increasingly destructive consequences of modern warfare, and with a particular concern for the consequences and costs of the newly developed atom bomb, Albert Einstein famously stated, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."^[24]

A distinctive feature since 1945 is the absence of wars between major powers--indeed the near absence of any traditional wars between established countries. The major exceptions were the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, the Iran–Iraq War 1980-1988, and the Gulf War of 1990-91. Instead actual fighting has largely been a matter of civil wars and insurgencies.^[26]

The Human Security Report 2005 documented a significant decline in the number and severity of armed conflicts since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s. However, the evidence examined in the 2008 edition of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management's "Peace and Conflict" study indicated the overall decline in conflicts had stalled.^[27]

Effects

Military and civilian casualties in recent human history

Human history had numerous wars coming and going, but the average number of people dying from war has fluctuated relatively little, being about 1 to 10 people dying per 100,000. However, major wars over shorter periods have resulted in much higher casualty rates, with 100-200 casualties per 100,000 over a few years. While conventional wisdom holds that casualties have increased in recent times due to technological improvements in warfare, this is not generally true. For instance, the Thirty Years' War (1618-1648) had about the same number of casualties per capita as World War I, although it was higher during World War II (WWII). That said, overall the number of casualties from war has not significantly increased in recent times. Quite to the contrary, on a global scale the time since WWII has been unusually peaceful.^[30]

Largest by death toll

The deadliest war in history, in terms of the cumulative number of deaths since its start, is World War II, from 1939 to 1945, with 60–85 million deaths, followed by the Mongol conquests^[31] at up to 60 million. As concerns a belligerent's losses in proportion to its prewar population, the most destructive war in modern history may have been the Paraguayan War (see Paraguayan War casualties). In 2013 war resulted in 31,000 deaths, down from 72,000 deaths in 1990.^[32] In 2003, Richard Smalley identified war as the sixth biggest problem (out of ten) facing humanity for the next fifty years.^[33] War usually results in significant deterioration of infrastructure and the ecosystem, a decrease in social spending, famine, large-scale emigration from the war zone, and often the mistreatment of prisoners of war or civilians.^[34]^[35]^[36] For instance, of the nine million people who were on the territory of the Byelorussian SSR in 1941, some 1.6 million were killed by the Germans in actions away from battlefields, including about 700,000 prisoners of war, 500,000 Jews, and 320,000 people counted as partisans (the vast majority of whom were unarmed civilians).^[37] Another byproduct of some wars is the prevalence of propaganda by some or all parties in the conflict,^[38] and increased revenues by weapons manufacturers.^[39]

Three of the ten most costly wars, in terms of loss of life, have been waged in the last century. These are the two World Wars, followed by the Second Sino-Japanese War (which is sometimes considered part of World War II, or as overlapping). Most of the others involved China or neighboring peoples. The death toll of World War II, being over 60 million, surpasses all other war-death-tolls.^[40]

On military personnel

Military personnel subject to combat in war often suffer mental and physical injuries, including depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, disease, injury, and death.

During World War II, research conducted by US Army Brigadier General S.L.A. Marshall found, on average, 15% to 20% of American riflemen in WWII combat fired at the enemy.^[53] In Civil War Collector’s Encyclopedia, F.A. Lord notes that of the 27,574 discarded muskets found on the Gettysburg battlefield, nearly 90% were loaded, with 12,000 loaded more than once and 6,000 loaded 3 to 10 times. These studies suggest most military personnel resist firing their weapons in combat, that – as some theorists argue – human beings have an inherent resistance to killing their fellow human beings.^[53] Swank and Marchand’s WWII study found that after sixty days of continuous combat, 98% of all surviving military personnel will become psychiatric casualties. Psychiatric casualties manifest themselves in fatigue cases, confusional states, conversion hysteria, anxiety, obsessional and compulsive states, and character disorders.^[53]

Additionally, it has been estimated anywhere from 18% to 54% of Vietnam war veterans suffered from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.^[53]

Based on 1860 census figures, 8% of all white American males aged 13 to 43 died in the American Civil War, including about 6% in the North and approximately 18% in the South.^[54] The war remains the deadliest conflict in American history, resulting in the deaths of 620,000 military personnel. United States military casualties of war since 1775 have totaled over two million. Of the 60 million European military personnel who were mobilized in World War I, 8 million were killed, 7 million were permanently disabled, and 15 million were seriously injured.^[55]

During Napoleon's retreat from Moscow, more French military personnel died of typhus than were killed by the Russians.^[56] Of the 450,000 soldiers who crossed the Neman on 25 June 1812, less than 40,000 returned. More military personnel were killed from 1500–1914 by typhus than from military action.^[57] In addition, if it were not for modern medical advances there would be thousands more dead from disease and infection. For instance, during the Seven Years' War, the Royal Navy reported it conscripted 184,899 sailors, of whom 133,708 died of disease or were 'missing'.^[58]

It is estimated that between 1985 and 1994, 378,000 people per year died due to war.^[59]

On civilians

Most wars have resulted in significant loss of life, along with destruction of infrastructure and resources (which may lead to famine, disease, and death in the civilian population). During the Thirty Years' War in Europe, the population of the Holy Roman Empire was reduced by 15 to 40 percent.^[60]^[61] Civilians in war zones may also be subject to war atrocities such as genocide, while survivors may suffer the psychological aftereffects of witnessing the destruction of war.

Most estimates of World War II casualties indicate around 60 million people died, 40 million of which were civilians.^[62] Deaths in the Soviet Union were around 27 million.^[63] Since a high proportion of those killed were young men who had not yet fathered any children, population growth in the postwar Soviet Union was much lower than it otherwise would have been.^[64]

On the economy

Once a war has ended, losing nations are sometimes required to pay war reparations to the victorious nations. In certain cases, land is ceded to the victorious nations. For example, the territory of Alsace-Lorraine has been traded between France and Germany on three different occasions.{{citation needed|date=July 2016}}

Typically, war becomes intertwined with the economy and many wars are partially or entirely based on economic reasons. Some economists{{who|date=July 2016}} believe war can stimulate a country's economy (high government spending for World War II is often credited with bringing the U.S. out of the Great Depression by most Keynesian economists) but in many cases, such as the wars of Louis XIV, the Franco-Prussian War, and World War I, warfare primarily results in damage to the economy of the countries involved. For example, Russia's involvement in World War I took such a toll on the Russian economy that it almost collapsed and greatly contributed to the start of the Russian Revolution of 1917.^[65]

World War II

The Great Depression of the 1930s ended as nations increased their production of war materials.^[68]

By the end of the war, 70% of European industrial infrastructure was destroyed.^[69] Property damage in the Soviet Union inflicted by the Axis invasion was estimated at a value of 679 billion rubles. The combined damage consisted of complete or partial destruction of 1,710 cities and towns, 70,000 villages/hamlets, 2,508 church buildings, 31,850 industrial establishments, {{convert|40000|mi|0|abbr=on}} of railroad, 4100 railroad stations, 40,000 hospitals, 84,000 schools, and 43,000 public libraries.^[70]

On the arts

War leads to forced migration causing potentially large displacements of population. Among forced migrants there are usually relatively large shares of artists and other types of creative people, causing so the war effects to be particularly harmful for the country’s creative potential in the long-run.^[71] War also has a negative effect on an artists’ individual life-cycle output.^[72]

In war, cultural institutions, such as libraries, can become "targets in themselves; their elimination was a way to denigrate and demoralize the enemy population." The impact such destruction can have on a society is important because "in an era in which competing ideologies fuel internal and international conflict, the destruction of libraries and other items of cultural significance is neither random nor irrelevant. Preserving the world’s repositories of knowledge is crucial to ensuring that the darkest moments of history do not endlessly repeat themselves."^[73]

Aims

Entities deliberately contemplating going to war and entities considering whether to end a war may formulate war aims as an evaluation/propaganda tool. War aims may stand as a proxy for national-military resolve.^[74]

Definition

Fried defines war aims as "the desired territorial, economic, military or other benefits expected following successful conclusion of a war".^[75]

Classification

War aims can change in the course of conflict and may eventually morph into "peace conditions"^[81] – the minimal conditions under which a state may cease to wage a particular war.

Limiting and stopping

Religious groups have long formally opposed or sought to limit war as in the Second Vatican Council document Gaudiem et Spes: "Any act of war aimed indiscriminately at the destruction of entire cities of extensive areas along with their population is a crime against God and man himself. It merits unequivocal and unhesitating condemnation."^[82]

Anti-war movements have existed for every major war in the 20th century, including, most prominently, World War I, World War II, and the Vietnam War. In the 21st century, worldwide anti-war movements occurred in response to the United States invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. Protests opposing the War in Afghanistan occurred in Europe, Asia, and the United States. Organizations like Stop the War Coalition, based in the United Kingdom, worked on campaigning against the war.^[83]

The Mexican Drug War, with estimated casualties of 40,000 since December 2006, has recently faced fundamental opposition.^[84] In 2011, the movement for peace and justice has started a popular middle-class movement against the war. It won the recognition of President Calderon, who began war.^[85]

Theories of motivation

There are many theories about the motivations for war, but no consensus about which are most common.^[86] Carl von Clausewitz said, 'Every age has its own kind of war, its own limiting conditions, and its own peculiar preconceptions.'^[87]

Psychoanalytic

Dutch psychoanalyst Joost Meerloo held that, "War is often...a mass discharge of accumulated internal rage (where)...the inner fears of mankind are discharged in mass destruction."^[88] Thus war can sometimes be a means by which man's own frustration at his inability to master his own self is expressed and temporarily relieved via his unleashing of destructive behavior upon others. In this destructive scenario, these others are made to serve as the scapegoat of unspoken and subconscious frustrations and fears.

Other psychoanalysts such as E.F.M. Durban and John Bowlby have argued human beings are inherently violent.^[89] This aggressiveness is fueled by displacement and projection where a person transfers his or her grievances into bias and hatred against other races, religions, nations or ideologies. By this theory, the nation state preserves order in the local society while creating an outlet for aggression through warfare.

The Italian psychoanalyst Franco Fornari, a follower of Melanie Klein, thought war was the paranoid or projective “elaboration” of mourning.^[90] Fornari thought war and violence develop out of our “love need”: our wish to preserve and defend the sacred object to which we are attached, namely our early mother and our fusion with her. For the adult, nations are the sacred objects that generate warfare. Fornari focused upon sacrifice as the essence of war: the astonishing willingness of human beings to die for their country, to give over their bodies to their nation.

Despite Fornari's theory that man's altruistic desire for self-sacrifice for a noble cause is a contributing factor towards war, few wars have originated from a desire for war among the general populace.^[91] Far more often the general population has been reluctantly drawn into war by its rulers. One psychological theory that looks at the leaders is advanced by Maurice Walsh.^[92] He argues the general populace is more neutral towards war and wars occur when leaders with a psychologically abnormal disregard for human life are placed into power. War is caused by leaders who seek war such as Napoleon and Hitler. Such leaders most often come to power in times of crisis when the populace opts for a decisive leader, who then leads the nation to war.

Evolutionary

Several theories concern the evolutionary origins of warfare. There are two main schools: One sees organized warfare as emerging in or after the Mesolithic as a result of complex social organization and greater population density and competition over resources; the other sees human warfare as a more ancient practice derived from common animal tendencies, such as territoriality and sexual competition.^[94]

The latter school argues that since warlike behavior patterns are found in many primate species such as chimpanzees,^[95] as well as in many ant species,^[96] group conflict may be a general feature of animal social behavior. Some proponents of the idea argue that war, while innate, has been intensified greatly by developments of technology and social organization such as weaponry and states.^[97]

Psychologist and linguist Steven Pinker argued that war-related behaviors may have been naturally selected in the ancestral environment due to the benefits of victory.^[98]{{Failed verification|date=July 2016}} He also argued that in order to have credible deterrence against other groups (as well as on an individual level), it was important to have a reputation for retaliation, causing humans to develop instincts for revenge as well as for protecting a group's (or an individual's) reputation ("honor").{{Citation needed|date=July 2016}}

Crofoot and Wrangham have argued that warfare, if defined as group interactions in which "coalitions attempt to aggressively dominate or kill members of other groups", is a characteristic of most human societies. Those in which it has been lacking "tend to be societies that were politically dominated by their neighbors".^[99]

Economic

War can be seen as a growth of economic competition in a competitive international system. In this view wars begin as a pursuit of markets for natural resources and for wealth. War has also been linked to economic development by economic historians and development economists studying state-building and fiscal capacity.^[103] While this theory has been applied to many conflicts, such counter arguments become less valid as the increasing mobility of capital and information level the distributions of wealth worldwide, or when considering that it is relative, not absolute, wealth differences that may fuel wars. There are those on the extreme right of the political spectrum who provide support, fascists in particular, by asserting a natural right of a strong nation to whatever the weak cannot hold by force.^[104]^[105] Some centrist, capitalist, world leaders, including Presidents of the United States and U.S. Generals, expressed support for an economic view of war.

Marxist

The Marxist theory of war is quasi-economic in that it states all modern wars are caused by competition for resources and markets between great (imperialist) powers, claiming these wars are a natural result of the free market and class system. Part of the theory is that war will disappear once a world revolution, over-throwing free markets and class systems, has occurred. Marxist philosopher Rosa Luxemburg theorized that imperialism was the result of capitalist countries needing new markets. Expansion of the means of production is only possible if there is a corresponding growth in consumer demand. Since the workers in a capitalist economy would be unable to fill the demand, producers must expand into non-capitalist markets to find consumers for their goods, hence driving imperialism.^[106]

Demographic

Demographic theories can be grouped into two classes, Malthusian and youth bulge theories:

Malthusian

Malthusian theories see expanding population and scarce resources as a source of violent conflict.

This is one of the earliest expressions of what has come to be called the Malthusian theory of war, in which wars are caused by expanding populations and limited resources. Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) wrote that populations always increase until they are limited by war, disease, or famine.^[108]

The violent herder–farmer conflicts in Nigeria, Mali, Sudan and other countries in the Sahel region have been exacerbated by land degradation and population growth.^[109]^[110]^[111]

Youth bulge

According to Heinsohn, who proposed youth bulge theory in its most generalized form, a youth bulge occurs when 30 to 40 percent of the males of a nation belong to the "fighting age" cohorts from 15 to 29 years of age. It will follow periods with total fertility rates as high as 4–8 children per woman with a 15–29-year delay.^[112]^[113]

Heinsohn saw both past "Christianist" European colonialism and imperialism, as well as today's Islamist civil unrest and terrorism as results of high birth rates producing youth bulges.^[114] Among prominent historical events that have been attributed to youth bulges are the role played by the historically large youth cohorts in the rebellion and revolution waves of early modern Europe, including the French Revolution of 1789,^[115] and the effect of economic depression upon the largest German youth cohorts ever in explaining the rise of Nazism in Germany in the 1930s.^[116] The 1994 Rwandan Genocide has also been analyzed as following a massive youth bulge.^[117]

Youth bulge theory has been subjected to statistical analysis by the World Bank,^[118] Population Action International,^[119] and the Berlin Institute for Population and Development.^[120] Youth bulge theories have been criticized as leading to racial, gender and age discrimination.^[121]

Rationalist

Rationalism is an international relations theory or framework. Rationalism (and Neorealism (international relations)) operate under the assumption that states or international actors are rational, seek the best possible outcomes for themselves, and desire to avoid the costs of war.^[122] Under a game theory approach, rationalist theories posit all actors can bargain, would be better off if war did not occur, and likewise seek to understand why war nonetheless reoccurs. In "Rationalist Explanations for War", James Fearon examined three rationalist explanations for why some countries engage in war:

"Issue indivisibility" occurs when the two parties cannot avoid war by bargaining, because the thing over which they are fighting cannot be shared between them, but only owned entirely by one side or the other.

"Information asymmetry with incentives to misrepresent" occurs when two countries have secrets about their individual capabilities, and do not agree on either: who would win a war between them, or the magnitude of state's victory or loss. For instance, Geoffrey Blainey argues that war is a result of miscalculation of strength. He cites historical examples of war and demonstrates, "war is usually the outcome of a diplomatic crisis which cannot be solved because both sides have conflicting estimates of their bargaining power."^[123] Thirdly, bargaining may fail due to the states' inability to make credible commitments.^[124]

Within the rationalist tradition, some theorists have suggested that individuals engaged in war suffer a normal level of cognitive bias,^[125] but are still "as rational as you and me".^[126] According to philosopher Iain King, "Most instigators of conflict overrate their chances of success, while most participants underrate their chances of injury...."^[127] King asserts that "Most catastrophic military decisions are rooted in GroupThink" which is faulty, but still rational.^[128]

The rationalist theory focused around bargaining is currently under debate. The Iraq War proved to be an anomaly that undercuts the validity of applying rationalist theory to some wars.^[129]

Political science

The statistical analysis of war was pioneered by Lewis Fry Richardson following World War I. More recent databases of wars and armed conflict have been assembled by the Correlates of War Project, Peter Brecke and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.{{citation needed|date=July 2016}}

The following subsections consider causes of war from system, societal, and individual levels of analysis. This kind of division was first proposed by Kenneth Waltz in Man, the State, and War and has been often used by political scientists since then.^[137]{{rp|143}}

System-level

There are several different international relations theory schools. Supporters of realism in international relations argue that the motivation of states is the quest for security, and conflicts can arise from the inability to distinguish defense from offense, which is called the security dilemma.^[130]{{rp|145}}

Within the realist school as represented by scholars such as Henry Kissinger and Hans Morgenthau, and the neorealist school represented by scholars such as Kenneth Waltz and John Mearsheimer, two main sub-theories are:

The two theories are not mutually exclusive and may be used to explain disparate events according to the circumstance.^[130]{{rp|148}}

Liberalism as it relates to international relations emphasizes factors such as trade, and its role in disincentivizing conflict which will damage economic relations. Realists{{who|date=July 2016}} respond that military force may sometimes be at least as effective as trade at achieving economic benefits, especially historically if not as much today.^[130]{{rp|149}} Furthermore, trade relations which result in a high level of dependency may escalate tensions and lead to conflict.^[130]{{rp|150}} Empirical data on the relationship of trade to peace are mixed, and moreover, some evidence suggests countries at war don't necessarily trade less with each other.^[130]{{rp|150}}

Societal-level

Individual-level

These theories suggest differences in people's personalities, decision-making, emotions, belief systems, and biases are important in determining whether conflicts get out of hand.^[130]{{rp|157}} For instance, it has been proposed that conflict is modulated by bounded rationality and various cognitive biases,^[130]{{rp|157}} such as prospect theory.^[132]

Ethics

The morality of war has been the subject of debate for thousands of years.^[133]

The two principal aspects of ethics in war, according to the just war theory, are jus ad bellum and Jus in bello.^[134]

Fascism, and the ideals it encompasses, such as Pragmatism, racism, and social Darwinism, hold that violence is good.^[140]^[141] Pragmatism holds that war and violence can be good if it serves the ends of the people, without regard for universal morality. Racism holds that violence is good so that a master race can be established, or to purge an inferior race from the earth, or both. Social Darwinism asserts that violence is sometimes necessary to weed the unfit from society so civilization can flourish. These are broad archetypes for the general position that the ends justify the means. Lewis Coser, U.S. conflict theorist and sociologist, argued conflict provides a function and a process whereby a succession of new equilibriums are created. Thus, the struggle of opposing forces, rather than being disruptive, may be a means of balancing and maintaining a social structure or society.^[142]

See also

References

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14. ^David McCandless, '20th Century Death'
15. ^Wm. Robert Johnston, 'The Effects of a Global Thermonuclear War'
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24. ^{{cite web|year=1947 |url=http://www.wagingpeace.org/menu/action/urgent-actions/einstein/ |title=Albert Einstein: Man of Imagination |accessdate=2010-02-03 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20100604080636/http://www.wagingpeace.org/menu/action/urgent-actions/einstein/ |archivedate=4 June 2010 }} Nuclear Age Peace Foundation paper
25. ^{{cite news |title= Instant Wisdom: Beyond the Little Red Book |url= http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946612-2,00.html |date= 20 September 1976 |work= Time |accessdate= 14 April 2013 }}
26. ^Robert J. Bunker and Pamela Ligouri Bunker, "The modern state in epochal transition: The significance of irregular warfare, state deconstruction, and the rise of new warfighting entities beyond neo-medievalism." Small Wars & Insurgencies 27.2 (2016): 325-344.
27. ^Hewitt, Joseph, J. Wilkenfield and T. Gurr [https://web.archive.org/web/20070915132902/http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/pc/ Peace and Conflict 2008], Paradigm Publishers, 2007
28. ^{{Cite web|url=https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace/|title=War and Peace|last=Roser|first=Max|date=2017-11-15|website=Our World in Data|access-date=2017-11-15}}
29. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.who.int/entity/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/gbddeathdalycountryestimates2004.xls |title=Mortality and Burden of Disease Estimates for WHO Member States in 2004 |publisher=World Health Organization }}
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31. ^*The Cambridge History of China: Alien regimes and border states, 907–1368, 1994, p. 622, cited by White
*Matthew White (2011-11-07). The Great Big Book of Horrible Things: The Definitive Chronicle of History's 100 Worst Atrocities.
32. ^{{cite journal|last1=GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death|first1=Collaborators|title=Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013|journal=Lancet|date=17 December 2014|pmid=25530442|doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2|pmc=4340604|volume=385|issue=9963|pages=117–71}}
33. ^"Top Ten Problems of Humanity for Next 50 Years", Professor R. E. Smalley, Energy & NanoTechnology Conference, Rice University, May 3, 2003.
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35. ^{{cite book|last1=Moore|first1=John|title=The pursuit of happiness|date=1992|page=304}}
36. ^{{cite book|last1=Baxter|first1=Richard|title=Humanizing the Laws of War|date=2013|page=344}}
37. ^Timothy Snyder, Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin, Basic Books, 2010, p. 250.
38. ^Dying and Death: Inter-disciplinary Perspectives. p. 153, Asa Kasher (2007)
39. ^{{cite book|last1=Chew|first1=Emry|title=Arming the Periphery|date=2012|page=49}}
40. ^¹McFarlane, Alan: The Savage Wars of Peace: England, Japan and the Malthusian Trap, Blackwell 2003, {{ISBN|0-631-18117-2}},{{ISBN|978-0-631-18117-0}} – cited by White
41. ^Wallinsky, David: David Wallechinsky's Twentieth Century: History With the Boring Parts Left Out, Little Brown & Co., 1996, {{ISBN|0-316-92056-8}}, {{ISBN|978-0-316-92056-8}} – cited by White
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46. ^{{cite web|url=http://concise.britannica.com/ebc/article-9380148/Taiping |title=Taiping Rebellion – Britannica Concise |publisher=Britannica |accessdate=2011-01-24}}
47. ^{{cite web|author= Michael Duffy |url=http://www.firstworldwar.com/features/casualties.htm |title=Military Casualties of World War One |publisher=Firstworldwar.com |date=22 August 2009 |accessdate=2011-01-24}}
48. ^{{cite web|url=http://necrometrics.com/pre1700a.htm#AnLushan |title=Selected Death Tolls for Wars, Massacres and Atrocities Before the 20th Century |publisher=Users.erols.com |accessdate=2011-01-24}}
49. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwtwo/nuclear_01.shtml |title=Nuclear Power: The End of the War Against Japan |publisher=BBC News |accessdate=2011-01-24}}
50. ^{{cite web|url=http://necrometrics.com/pre1700a.htm#Timur |title=Timur Lenk (1369–1405) |publisher=Users.erols.com |accessdate=2011-01-24}}
51. ^Matthew White's website (a compilation of scholarly death toll estimates)
52. ^{{cite web|url=https://spartacus-educational.com/RUScivilwar.htm |title=Russian Civil War |publisher=Spartacus-Educational.com |accessdate=2019-02-26 |deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20101205201225/http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/RUScivilwar.htm |archivedate=5 December 2010 }}
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69. ^{{cite book|authorlink1=Marc Pilisuk|author1=Marc Pilisuk|author2=Jennifer Achord Rountree|title=Who Benefits from Global Violence and War: Uncovering a Destructive System|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=r9kNZrmG0E8C&pg=PA136|accessdate=31 May 2012|year=2008|publisher=Greenwood Publishing Group|isbn=978-0-275-99435-8|pages=136–}}
70. ^The New York Times, 9 February 1946, Volume 95, Number 32158.
71. ^{{cite journal | last1 = Jan Borowiecki | first1 = Karol | year = 2012 | title = Are composers different? Historical evidence on conflict-induced migration (1816–1997) | url = https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcd/tcduee/tep0811.html | journal = European Review of Economic History | volume = 16 | issue = 3| pages = 270–91 | doi=10.1093/ereh/hes001}}
72. ^{{cite journal | last1 = Jan Borowiecki | first1 = Karol | last2 = O'Hagan | first2 = John | year = 2013 | title = Impact of War on Individual Life-cycle Creativity: Tentative Evidence in Relation to Composers | url = https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcd/tcduee/tep1711.html | journal = Journal of Cultural Economics | volume = 37 | issue = 3| pages = 347–58 | doi=10.1007/s10824-012-9187-1}}
73. ^Glenn, K. (2007). [Burning Books and Leveling Libraries]. Harvard Human Rights Journal, 203 51-353
74. ^{{cite book| last1 = Sullivan| first1 = Patricia| title = Who Wins?: Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict| chapter-url = https://books.google.com/books?id=ceushfFUCpUC| publisher = Oxford University Press, USA| page = 17| publication-date = 2012| doi = 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.003.0003| isbn = 9780199878338| accessdate = 2015-08-25| quote = A state with greater military capacity than its adversary is more likely to prevail in wars with 'total' war aims—the overthrow of a foreign government or annexation of territory—than in wars with more limited objectives.| date = 2012-07-16| chapter = War Aims and War Outcomes}}
75. ^{{cite book| last1 = Fried| first1 = Marvin Benjamin| title = Austro-Hungarian War Aims in the Balkans During World War I| url = https://books.google.com/books?id=ETDtAwAAQBAJ| publisher = Palgrave Macmillan| publication-date = 2014| page = 4| isbn = 9781137359018| accessdate = 2015-08-24| quote = War aims are the desired territorial, economic, military or other benefits expected following successful conclusion of a war.| date = 2014-07-01}}
76. ^Welch distinguishes: "tangible goods such as arms, wealth, and – provided they are strategically or economically valuable – territory and resources" from "intangible goods such as credibility and reputation" – {{cite book| last1 = Welch| first1 = David A.| title = Justice and the Genesis of War| url = https://books.google.com/books?id=i2Z5blE1KGoC| series = Cambridge Studies in International Relations| issue = 29| publisher = Cambridge University Press| publication-date = 1995| page = 17| isbn = 9780521558686| accessdate = 2015-08-24| date = 1995-08-10}}
77. ^{{cite book| last1 = Fried| first1 = Marvin Benjamin| title = Austro-Hungarian War Aims in the Balkans During World War I| url = https://books.google.com/books?id=ETDtAwAAQBAJ| publisher = Palgrave Macmillan| publication-date = 2014| page = 4| isbn = 9781137359018| accessdate = 2015-08-24| quote = Intangibles, such as prestige or power, can also represent war aims, though often (albeit not always) their achievement is framed within a more tangible context (e.g. conquest restores prestige, annexation increases power, etc.).| date = 2014-07-01}}
78. ^Compare:{{cite news| last1 = Katwala| first1 = Sunder| author-link1 = Sunder Katwala| title = Churchill by Paul Addison| url = https://www.theguardian.com/books/2005/feb/13/biography.features1| department = Books| newspaper = The Guardian| publisher = Guardian News and Media Limited| publication-date = 2005-02-13| access-date = 2015-08-24| quote = [Churchill] took office and declared he had 'not become the King's First Minister to oversee the liquidation of the British empire'. [...] His view was that an Anglo-American English-speaking alliance would seek to preserve the empire, though ending it was among Roosevelt's implicit war aims.}}
79. ^Compare {{cite book| last1 = Fried| first1 = Marvin Benjamin| title = Austro-Hungarian War Aims in the Balkans During World War I| url = https://books.google.com/books?id=ETDtAwAAQBAJ| publisher = Palgrave Macmillan| publication-date = 2014| page = 4| isbn = 9781137359018| accessdate = 2015-08-24| quote = At times, war aims were explicitly stated internally or externally in a policy decision, while at other times [...] the war aims were merely discussed but not published, remaining instead in the form of memoranda or instructions.| date = 2014-07-01}}
80. ^{{cite book| last1 = Fried| first1 = Marvin Benjamin| chapter = 'A Life and Death Question': Austro-Hungarian War Aims in the First World War| editor1-last = Afflerbach| editor1-first = Holger| title = The Purpose of the First World War: War Aims and Military Strategies| chapter-url = https://books.google.com/books?id=A6AFCgAAQBAJ| series = Schriften des Historischen Kollegs| volume = 91| location = Berlin/Boston| publisher = Walter de Gruyter GmbH| publication-date = 2015| page = 118| isbn = 9783110443486| accessdate = 2015-08-24| quote = [T]he [Austrian] Foreign Ministry [...] and the Military High Command [...] were in agreement that political and military hegemony over Serbia and the Western Balkans was a vital war aim. The Hungarian Prime Minister István Count Tisza, by contrast, was more preoccupied with so-called 'negative war aims', notably warding off hostile Romanian, Italian, and even Bulgarian intervention.| date = 2015-07-01}}
81. ^{{cite book| last1 = Haase| first1 = Hugo| author-link1 = Hugo Haase| chapter = The Debate in the Reichstag on Internal Political Conditions, April 5–6, 1916| editor1-last = Lutz| editor1-first = Ralph Haswell| title = Fall of the German Empire, 1914–1918| chapter-url = https://books.google.com/books?id=cW6mAAAAIAAJ| series = Hoover War Library publications| issue = 1–2| publisher = Stanford University Press| publication-date = 1932| page = 233| isbn = 9780804723800| accessdate = 2015-08-25| quote = Gentlemen, when it comes time to formulate peace conditions, it is time to think of another thing than war aims.| year = 1932}}
82. ^"PASTORAL CONSTITUTION ON THE CHURCH IN THE MODERN WORLD GAUDIUM ET SPES PROMULGATED BY HIS HOLINESS, POPE PAUL VI ON DECEMBER 7, 1965"
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84. ^{{cite web |title=How many have died in Mexico's drug war? |url=http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laplaza/2011/06/mexico-war-dead-update-figures-40000.html|date=2011-06-07}}
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99. ^Mind the Gap: Tracing the Origins of Human Universals By Peter M. Kappeler, Joan B. Silk, 2009, Chapter 8, "Intergroup Aggression in Primates and Humans; The Case for a Unified Theory", Margaret C. Crofoot and Richard W. Wrangham
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104. ^Roger Griffin and Matthew Feldman, eds., Fascism: Fascism and Culture, New York: Routledge, 2004.
105. ^Hawkins, Mike. Social Darwinism in European and American Thought, 1860–1945: Nature as Model and Nature as Threat, Cambridge University Press, 1997.
106. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.marxists.org/archive/mandel/1955/08/imp-crit.html |title=The Marxist Theory of Imperialism and its Critics |first=Einde |last=O'Callaghan |publisher=Marxists Internet Archive |date=25 October 2007 |accessdate=24 April 2011}}
107. ^{{cite book |title=Lend me your ears: great speeches in history |first=William |last=Safire |publisher=W. W. Norton & Company |year=2004 |isbn=978-0-393-05931-1 |page=94}}
108. ^{{cite book |title=Geography: an integrated approach |first=David |last=Waugh |publisher=Nelson Thornes |year=2000 |isbn=978-0-17-444706-1 |page=378}}
109. ^{{cite news |title=In Mali, waning fortunes of Fulani herders play into Islamist hands |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mali-fulani/in-mali-waning-fortunes-of-fulani-herders-play-into-islamist-hands-idUSKBN13F0L2 |agency=Reuters |date=20 November 2016}}
110. ^{{cite news |title=How Climate Change Is Spurring Land Conflict in Nigeria |url=http://time.com/5324712/climate-change-nigeria/ |work=Time |date=28 June 2018}}
111. ^{{cite news |title=The Deadliest Conflict You’ve Never Heard of |url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/nigeria/2019-01-23/deadliest-conflict-youve-never-heard |work=Foreign Policy |date=23 January 2019}}
112. ^Helgerson, John L. (2002): "The National Security Implications of Global Demographic Trends"
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114. ^Heinsohn, G. (2005): "Population, Conquest and Terror in the 21st Century" [https://de.scribd.com/doc/310265022/Gunnar-Heinsohn-Population-Conquest-and-Terror-in-the-21st-Century (online)]
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116. ^Moller, Herbert (1968): ‘Youth as a Force in the Modern World’, Comparative Studies in Society and History 10: 238–60; 240–44
117. ^Diessenbacher, Hartmut (1994): Kriege der Zukunft: Die Bevölkerungsexplosion gefährdet den Frieden. Muenchen: Hanser 1998; see also (criticizing youth bulge theory) Marc Sommers (2006): "Fearing Africa´s Young Men: The Case of Rwanda." The World Bank: Social Development Papers – Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction, Paper No. 32, January 2006
118. ^Urdal, Henrik (2004): "The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict," [https://web.archive.org/web/20041118212538/http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2004/07/28/000012009_20040728162225/Rendered/PDF/29740.pdf],
119. ^Population Action International: "The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict after the Cold War"
120. ^Kröhnert, Steffen (2004): "Warum entstehen Kriege? Welchen Einfluss haben demografische Veränderungen auf die Entstehung von Konflikten?"
121. ^Hendrixson, Anne: "Angry Young Men, Veiled Young Women: Constructing a New Population Threat"
122. ^¹{{Cite journal|title = Rationalist Explanations for War|last = Fearon|first = James D.|date = Summer 1995|journal = International Organization |volume=49 |issue=3 |pages=379–414|doi = 10.1017/s0020818300033324|pmid = |jstor=2706903}}
123. ^{{cite book|author=Geoffrey Blainey|title=Causes of War|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Mcknp3tt0LMC&pg=PA114|year=1988|edition=3rd|page=114|accessdate=2016-03-19|isbn=9780029035917}}
124. ^{{cite journal | last1 = Powell | first1 = Robert | year = 2002 | title = Bargaining Theory and International Conflict | url = | journal = Annual Review of Political Science | volume = 5 | issue = | pages = 1–30 | doi = 10.1146/annurev.polisci.5.092601.141138 }}
125. ^Chris Cramer, 'Civil War is Not a Stupid Thing', {{ISBN|978-1850658214}}
126. ^From point 10 of Modern Conflict is Not What You Think (article), accessed 16 December 2014.
127. ^Quote from Iain King, in Modern Conflict is Not What You Think
128. ^Point 6 in Modern Conflict is Not What You Think
129. ^{{cite journal|last1=Lake|first1=David A.|title=Two Cheers for Bargaining Theory: Assessing Rationalist Explanations of the Iraq War|journal=International Security|date=November 2010|pages=7–52|doi=10.1162/isec_a_00029|volume=35|issue=3}}
130. ^¹²³⁴⁵⁶⁷⁸⁹¹⁰¹¹¹²¹³¹⁴{{cite journal|last1=Levy|first1=Jack S.|title=The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace|journal=Annual Review of Political Science|date=Jun 1998|volume=1|pages=139–65|doi=10.1146/annurev.polisci.1.1.139|url=http://fas-polisci.rutgers.edu/levy/1998%20causes%20of%20war%20%26%20conditions%20of%20peace.pdf|archiveurl=https://www.webcitation.org/6TXiBeznJ?url=http://fas-polisci.rutgers.edu/levy/1998%20causes%20of%20war%20%26%20conditions%20of%20peace.pdf|archivedate=2014-10-23}}
131. ^{{cite web| year = 2001| url = http://www.bepress.com/peps/vol7/iss3/3/| title = Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy (p. 19)| accessdate = 2010-02-07| deadurl = yes| archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20110707224412/http://www.bepress.com/peps/vol7/iss3/3/| archivedate = 7 July 2011| df = dmy-all}} More recently studies (Lebow 2008, Lindemann 2010) demonstrated that striving for self-esteem (i.e. virile self images), and recognition as a Great Power or non-recognition (exclusion and punishment of great powers, denying traumatic historical events) is a principal cause of international conflict and war.
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