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词条 Draft:Indonesian presidential election, 2019
释义

  1. Background

  2. Electoral system

     Voters 

  3. Candidates

      Nominated   Party support  Others 

  4. Campaigns

     Issues  Social media and youths  Debates  Finances 

  5. Timeline

  6. Polling

  7. Results

     By province 

  8. References

{{Infobox election
| election_name = Indonesian presidential election, 2019
| country = Indonesia
| type = Presidential
| vote_type = Popular
| previous_election = Indonesian presidential election, 2014
| previous_year = 2014
| next_election = Indonesian presidential election, 2024
| next_year = 2024
| election_date = 17 April 2019
| turnout =
| image1 =
| candidate1 = Joko Widodo
| party1 = Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle
| alliance1 = {{collapsible list|liststyle = align = center|title=Koalisi Indonesia Kerja|PDI-P
Golkar
PKB
PPP
Nasdem
Hanura
PKPI
Perindo
PSI}}
| running_mate1 = Ma'ruf Amin
| popular_vote1 =
| percentage1 =
| image2 =
| candidate2 = Prabowo Subianto
| party2 = Great Indonesia Movement Party
| alliance2 = {{collapsible list|title=Koalisi Indonesia Adil Makmur|liststyle=align=center|Gerindra
PKS
PAN
Demokrat
Berkarya}}
| running_mate2 = Sandiaga Uno
| popular_vote2 =
| percentage2 =
|map_image =
|map_caption = Results of the election showing the candidates with the largest share of votes in each of the 34 provinces of Indonesia. Joko Widodo: red; Prabowo Subianto: crimson.
| title = President
| before_election = Joko Widodo
| before_party = Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle
}}

The Indonesian presidential election of 2019 will be the 4th presidential election of Indonesia, scheduled for 17 April 2019 in which incumbent President of Indonesia Joko Widodo, often known as Jokowi, will run for re-election with senior cleric and Nahdlatul Ulama leader Ma'ruf Amin against former general Prabowo Subianto, who had lost against Jokowi in the 2014 presidential election, with businessman and Jakarta Vice Governor Sandiaga Uno for the five-year term between 2019 and 2024. For the first time in the country's history, the presidential election will be held together with the legislative election.

With over 180 million eligible voters, the election follows a direct, simple majority system with runoff voting. As there are only two candidates, the winning candidate is required to win a majority of the popular vote. Jokowi is supported by his party PDI-P and eight others - representing over 60 percent of votes in the 2014 legislative election - while Prabowo was endorsed by five parties including his party Gerindra.

Held with a backdrop of rampant fake news and hoaxes, the campaigning centered on economic issues, with both candidates endorsing economic nationalism.

Background

{{Further information|Indonesian presidential election, 2014|Elections in Indonesia}}

In the 2014 presidential election, Jakarta governor Joko Widodo defeated former general Prabowo Subianto to become the 7th President of Indonesia. Despite initially being minority government, Jokowi managed to secure the support of Golkar and the United Development Party, hence controlling the parliament.[1][2]

While also present in 2014, significant online identity politics campaigns started around 2016, with the defeat of Jokowi's former deputy Basuki Tjahaja Purnama in Jakarta's 2017 gubernatorial election and later his arrest being attributed to it.[3][4]

The election marks the first time that the presidential election was held together with the legislative election, while in all previous elections, the legislative election was held before the presidential election.[5]

Electoral system

{{Further information|Indonesian electoral law of 2017}}

The 2019 presidential election, along with the simultaneous legislative election, is regulated by the Law No. 7 of 2017. In order to run for presidency, a candidate must receive support from political parties totaling 20 percent of the seats in the People's Representative Council or 25 percent of the popular vote in the previous legislative election i.e. 2014.[6][7]:Art. 222 Political parties are allowed to remain neutral given that they are unable to support their own candidate. However, if a neutral party/parties could endorse their own candidate (i.e. 20 percent of seats/25 percent of popular votes), they are required to do so, or they would be barred from participating in the next election.[7]:Art. 235[8]

The voting procedure follows a single non-transferable vote system, with voters simply choosing one of the candidates. A winning candidate is required to win a majority, and is also required to win at least 20 percent of the votes in over half of Indonesia' provinces (i.e. 18 provinces). If no candidate pairs had fulfilled the criterion, the election is to be repeated with a maximum of two participants. The law includes a provision in the case of a draw in popular vote when determining the top two places (e.g. three candidates with equal votes or two candidates in the second place), following which the winner is to be determined based on the vote distribution.[7]:Art. 416

Responsibility for holding the election falls on the General Elections Commission ({{lang-id|Komisi Pemilihan Umum}}, abbr. KPU), a legally independent government body.[9] In addition, the election is monitored by the {{ill|Elections Supervisory Body|id|Badan Pengawas Pemilihan Umum}} ({{lang-id|Badan Pengawas Pemilihan Umum}}, abbv. Bawaslu), which also has the authority to rule on violations of election rules (e.g. administrative errors, vote buying, etc).[10]

Voters

The voting age for the election is 17, with all married or divorced Indonesian citizens also eligible if they were under the age of 17. The marriage clause in particular received complaints as it may incentivize child marriage.[11] Indonesians who lived abroad could vote in either the embassies and consulates which are to setup polling stations, vote in mobile polling stations, or through postal voting, with the voting taking place on 8-14 April, earlier than the main election event on 17 April.[12]

Prior to the publication of a final voter list ({{lang-id|Daftar Pemilih Tetap}}), KPU had compiled a provisional voter list ({{lang-id|Daftar Pemilih Sementara}}) which was published in June 2018, containing around 186 million names.[13]

KPU in 5 September 2018 announced that there were 187 million registered voters - 185,732,093 in Indonesia and 2,049,791 voting abroad. They were to vote in 805,075 polling stations in Indonesia, with mail-in votes and 620 polling stations outside the country.[14] Later on, 670,000 names were removed following complaints of duplicate names in the voter registry, lowering the total voter count to around 187.1 million.[15] Further investigation resulted in over 1 million duplicate voters discovered in Papua alone in October, out of the initial voter registry of 3 million.[16] Bawaslu commissioners in early September estimated that there would be around 2 million duplicate voters,[17] while opposition party Gerindra stated that they only had 137 million voters in their internal registry, and claimed that they found 25 million duplicate names in the registry.[18]

Candidates

Requirements for presidential/vice presidential candidates are similar, with only either Indonesia-born lifelong Indonesian citizens or naturalized citizens who were born abroad and obtained a foreign citizenship outside their own will being eligible to run with a minimum age of 40 and a requirement to "have a belief in the One and Only God". If the candidates have spouses, they must also be Indonesian citizens. A criminal record resulting in over 5 years of incarceration or an active bankruptcy also bars a candidate from running. A term limit of two terms is in place, barring incumbent vice president Jusuf Kalla from running as a vice presidential candidate.[19][7]:Art. 169

While a rematch between Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto had been considered for some time, there were initial doubts over the likelihood of Prabowo's second bid for presidency, due to the parliamentary seat requirement of 20 percent which required his party Gerindra to form a coalition; on the other hand, Jokowi received strong support from two largest parties in the parliament - PDI-P and Golkar.[20] There were considerations of a possible single candidate race,[20] Prabowo endorsing another candidate,[21] or even him running as Jokowi's running mate.[22][23] However, despite Jokowi's significant lead in the opinion polls, no other candidate polled close to either him or Prabowo.[24]

Registration for presidential candidates was opened between 4 and 10 August 2018 at the General Elections Commission head office in Jakarta.[25] Neither candidate declared their vice presidential pick until 9 August 2018, when both declared their running mates. Both picks were considered "surprising" - with Jokowi selecting senior cleric and politician Ma'ruf Amin despite early reports that lawyer Mahfud MD would be selected. Prabowo's last-minute selection of businessman and Jakarta vice governor Sandiaga Uno - close to midnight on that day - was also unexpected, Sandiaga not having been mentioned in the early phases of the selection.[26][27]

Nominated

Party support

Except for the National Mandate Party, all parties in the government coalition supported a second term for Jokowi.[28] In total, 9 parties running in the legislative election supported Jokowi, with the coalition having formally met by May 2018. Out of the nine parties, two (Indonesian Unity Party and Indonesian Solidarity Party) are parties participating for the first time in elections.[29] Shortly after Ma'ruf was declared as Jokowi's VP candidate, Jokowi's coalition member party PPP leader Muhammad Romahurmuziy stated that the coalition, dubbed Koalisi Indonesia Kerja (lit. "Working Indonesia Coalition"),[30] was final, and was not accepting any more parties.[31] In total, the coalition gained over 62 percent of the votes during the 2014 legislative election and controlled 337 of 560 DPR seats.

Aside from Gerindra, Prabowo's supporting parties did not confirm their support until late - PAN and PKS on 9 August,[36][37] Demokrat and Berkarya on the 10th,[38][39] the registration day, though the coalition had existed prior.[32] PAN withdrew from the government coalition - resulting in the resignation of bureaucratic reform minister and PAN member Asman Abnur.[33] The coalition was named Koalisi Indonesia Adil Makmur (lit. "Prosperous and Just Indonesia Coalition").[34] In total, there are five parties in the coalition - including Berkarya, a new party[35] - which amounted to 36 percent of the 2014 legislative vote, and is represented by 223 of 560 DPR seats.

Two parties - the Crescent Star Party/PBB (participated in the 2014 election, but did not gain a national legislature seat) and the Garuda Party (a new party) - did not endorse either candidates. The latter's secretary Abdullah Mansyuri stated that the party was focusing on the legislative elections, while PBB's chairman Yusril Ihza Mahendra remarked that neither Jokowi nor Prabowo's camp invited PBB.[36][37] Later on, however, Mahendra would join Jokowi's campaign team as its lawyer.[38]

Ballot No. Party DPR seats 2014 votes Candidate
1 National Awakening Party479.04%Joko Widodo[39]
3Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle10918.95%
4Party of the Functional Groups9114.75%
5 Nasdem Party356.72%
9 Indonesian Unity Partynew party
10 United Development Party396.53%
11 Indonesian Solidarity Partynew party
13 People's Conscience Party165.26%
20 Indonesian Justice and Unity Party00.91%
2 Great Indonesia Movement Party7311.81%Prabowo Subianto[40]
7 Berkarya Partynew party
8 Prosperous Justice Party406.79%
12 National Mandate Party497.59%
14 Democratic Party6110.19%
6 Garuda Partynew partyNeutral[36][37]
19 Crescent Star Party01.46%

Others

Other notable individuals who expressed an intent, received political support, or was widely considered as a prospective candidate to run as president include:

  • Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, retired army major and 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial candidate.[41][42]P
  • Ahmad Heryawan, former Governor of West Java.[43][44]P
  • Amien Rais, former Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly.[45][46]P
  • Anies Baswedan, Governor of Jakarta and former Minister of Education and Culture.[47]
  • Chairul Tanjung, businessman.[48][49]J
  • Gatot Nurmantyo, former Commander of the Indonesian National Armed Forces.[50][51]N
  • Jusuf Kalla, incumbent Vice President of Indonesia.[52][53]J
  • Muhammad Zainul Majdi, governor of West Nusa Tenggara.[54][46]J
  • Zulkifli Hasan, Chairman of the National Mandate Party and Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly.[55][56]P
Note J : Endorsed Jokowi, P : Endorsed Prabowo, N : Expressed neutrality

Campaigns

The official campaigning period is planned to last around 6 months, starting with a "peaceful campaign" declaration on 23 September 2018, with it being scheduled to last until 13 April 2019.[57] Prior to the start of the campaign, both parties submitted their campaign teams to the KPU, with Jokowi's team being lead by businessman Erick Thohir while Prabowo's was lead by former Indonesian National Armed Forces panglima Djoko Santoso.[58]

Issues

A large portion of the campaign revolved around the stagnating economic growth (around 5% per year, compared to the 2014 campaign pledge of 7%)[59] and dropping value of the rupiah, which slid to a 20-year low against the USD in late 2018, along with the resulting inflation and drop in purchasing power.[60] Both candidates advocated for economic nationalism,[61] with Prabowo's positioning being described by the Sydney Morning Herald as "a nationalist, outsider candidate who will stand up for his country", comparing him to Donald Trump following Prabowo's use of the phrase "Make Indonesia Great Again" in a speech.[62] Politicians from Jokowi's campaign team attacked the use of the slogan, expressing concerns that Prabowo would follow by inciting racial sentiments.[63]

Early in the campaigning period, a major earthquake and tsunami struck Palu, killing thousands. The government's relief effort became a key rhetoric in the election campaign. Key opposition figure and People's Representative Council deputy Fadli Zon attacked the government, calling it "very weak" for what he perceived as a lack of law and order from outbreaks of lootings by survivors. Jokowi personally visited Palu twice within a week of the earthquake. However, both campaign teams suspended their campaigning in the affected areas. In a previous disaster, an earthquake at Lombok, Jokowi was criticized for attending the 2018 Asian Games opening ceremony, though he later opted to visit Lombok and attend the closing ceremony through teleconference from a refugee camp in Lombok.[64][65]

The selection of Ma'ruf Amin - a decision which The Jakarta Post referred to in an editorial as "extreme pragmatism"[66] - as running mate drew significant criticism towards Jokowi, who was accused of "selling out" to conservative elements. Early polls indicated that Jokowi was significantly supported by Nahdlatul Ulama members - the largest Islamic organization in the country of which Amin is the leader of - while trailing to a lesser extent in support from Muhammadiyah - the second-largest group - elements. The more hardline group of the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) overwhelmingly supported Prabowo, with Prabowo and opposition leaders visiting exiled FPI leader Rizieq Shihab in Saudi Arabia.[67]

Social media and youths

With the millennials making up around two-fifths of Indonesia's population, there were significant efforts by both side to appeal to the age group.[60] Oesman Sapta Odang, chairman of Jokowi-supporting Hanura, remarked that the 75-year old Ma'ruf "could be called a millennial", while Prosperous Justice Party chairman Sohibul Iman referred to Sandiaga - who was educated in private Christian schools before studying in the United States - as a "post-Islamist santri".[68] A major social media-centered campaign, dubbed #2019GantiPresiden, initiated by Prosperous Justice Party politician Mardani Ali Sera, also emerged, holding rallies in multiple cities until they were disallowed following clashes with Jokowi supporters.[69]

Before the campaign period started, observers had expected that hoaxes and fake news would become rampart, primarily spereading through social media and WhatsApp, with one observer noting that the government was limited in its impact in handling the fake news as it may be framed as favoring the incumbent in the election.[70][71] One particular case involved activist and Prabowo campaigner Ratna Sarumpaet who falsely claimed to have been assaulted, initially causing many prominent opposition politicians to voice support for her, before she admitted that she had lied following a police investigation. She was prosecuted and forced to resign from the campaign team, with Prabowo personally apologizing for spreading the hoax.[72] Both sides formed dedicated anti-hoax groups to counter attacks on social media,[57][73] with the Indonesian government holding weekly fake news briefings.[74]

Debates

KPU scheduled for five debates to be held in 2019, the same amount as it was in 2014. People's Representative Council member and National Mandate Party Central Committee chairman Yandri Susanto proposed that the debates should be held in English, although KPU decided that the debates will be held in Indonesian.[75][76]

Finances

On 23 September, both campaign teams submitted an initial budget, with Jokowi's campaign team reporting an initial balance of Rp 11.9 billion and Prabowo's team reporting Rp 2 billion. Indonesia Corruption Watch observers deemed the initial numbers "unrealistic" (Widodo's campaign team spent Rp 293 billion in 2014, Prabowo's spent Rp 166 billion), though representatives from both campaign teams noted that the balance was just an initial balance, and would increase throughout the campaigning period.[77]

Timeline

Date Event Remarks
28 June 2016EndorsementGolkar officialy endorsed Joko Widodo for his reelection.[78]
12 June 2017PKPI officially endorsed Joko Widodo for his reelection.[79]
20 July 2017LegalThe People's Representative Council passed the Election Law, setting the presidential threshold at 20 percent of parliament or 25 percent of popular vote in 2014.[80]
4 August 2017EndorsementHanura officially endorsed Joko Widodo for his reelection.[81]
3 October 2017RegistrationThe General Elections Commission/KPU opens registration for political parties.[95]
16 October 2017KPU closes registration for political parties, with a total of 27 parties registering.[82]
15 November 2017EndorsementNasdem officially endorsed Joko Widodo for his reelection.[83]
23 February 2018EndorsementPDI-P officially endorsed Joko Widodo for reelection.[84]
11 April 2018EndorsementGerindra officially endorsed Prabowo Subianto.[85]
27 June 2018Local electionsLocal elections were held to elect 17 governors, 39 mayors, and 115 regents, with over 150 million eligible voters.[86]
14 July 2018 EndorsementPKB officially endorsed Joko Widodo for reelection.[87]
9 August 2018DeclarationJoko Widodo declares Ma'ruf Amin his running mate.[88]
Prabowo Subianto declares Sandiaga Uno his running mate.[89]
EndorsementPKS officially endorsed Prabowo Subianto.[90]
PAN officially endorsed Prabowo Subianto.[91]
10 August 2018EndorsementDemokrat officially endorsed Prabowo Subianto.[92]
Berkarya Party officially endorsed Prabowo Subianto.[93]
RegistrationBoth pairs of candidates registered at the KPU head office.[94]
5 September 2018AnnouncementKPU announced that there were 185,732,093 registered voters in the DPS, while noting concerns from the {{ill|Election Supervisory Agency|id|Badan Pengawas Pemilihan Umum}} and some Prabowo supporters regarding duplicate entries.[95]
20 September 2018AnnouncementKPU announced that both pairs of registered candidates passed verification and health tests, and have officially become candidates in the election.[96]
21 September 2018Ballot drawA ballot draw was held at the KPU's head office, with Joko Widodo/Ma'ruf Amin being assigned the number 1 and Prabowo Subianto/Sandiaga Uno being assigned number 2.[97]
23 September 2018CampaignThe official campaigning period starts.[98]
13 April 2019CampaignThe official campaigning period ends.[98]
8-14 April 2019General electionOverseas voting period.[99]
17 April 2019Presidential and legislative election, held simultaneously across Indonesia.

Polling

By late 2018, Jokowi was ahead of Prabowo in most surveys.[100][101] The table below gives detailed survey results from a variety of organizations.

NOTE: The accuracy of political surveys in Indonesia vary significantly, with some having little transparency. It should also be noted that some agencies also act as political consultants and surveys are often paid for by candidates.[102] Caution should hence be exercised in using the polling data below.{{Hidden begin|titlestyle = background:lightgrey;|title=Polls conducted after nominations}}
PollsterDateSample sizeWidodoPrabowo
[https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/10/07/14403561/survei-smrc-jokowi-maruf-amin-604-persen-prabowo-sandiaga-uno-298-persen SMRC]7-24 September 20181,07460.429.8
[https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/09/26/14514271/survei-indikator-jokowi-maruf-577-persen-prabowo-sandiaga-323-persen Indikator]1-6 September 20181,22057.732.3
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4196698/gerindra-tak-pusing-prabowo-sandi-tertinggal-di-3-survei-pilpres Y-Publica]13-23 August 20181,20052.728.6
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4196698/gerindra-tak-pusing-prabowo-sandi-tertinggal-di-3-survei-pilpres LSI]12-19 August 20181,20052.229.5
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4196698/gerindra-tak-pusing-prabowo-sandi-tertinggal-di-3-survei-pilpres Alvara]12-18 August 20181,50053.535.2
NOTE: See warning above{{Hidden end}}{{Hidden begin|titlestyle = background:lightgrey;|title=Polls conducted before nominations}}
PollsterDateSample sizeWidodoPrabowoKallaNurmantyoYudhoyonoBaswedanPurnamaTanoesoedibjoHasanIskandar
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4150849/survei-rtk-elektabilitas-jokowi-42-persen-prabowo-21-persen RTK]23 July-1 Aug 20181,61042.521.30.41.63.10.80.40.21.8
[https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20180723204018-32-316417/survei-median-paparkan-elektabilitas-jokowi-hanya-35-persen Median]19 April-5 May 20182,10035.7022.606.805.20
[https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20180723204018-32-316417/survei-median-paparkan-elektabilitas-jokowi-hanya-35-persen Median (head to head)]19 April-5 May 20182,10058.2026.60
Polcomm3-6 May 20181,20036.4227.174.924.333.52.5
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4036984/mengejutkan-survei-idm-elektabilitas-prabowo-501-jokowi-298 IDM (head to head)]28 Apr - 8 May 20182,45029.850.1
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4036984/mengejutkan-survei-idm-elektabilitas-prabowo-501-jokowi-298 IDM]28 Apr - 8 May 20182,45026.440.18.26.3
[https://nasional.tempo.co/read/1087620/survei-rtk-elektabilitas-jokowi-teratas-prabowo-dan-ahy-buntuti RTK]21 Apr - 21 May 20181,61038.520.51.62.70.9
[https://news.detik.com/berita/4032750/survei-indo-barometer-jokowi-407-prabowo-197-gatot-27 Indo Barometer]15-22 Apr 20182,00040.719.71.22.72.02.40.91.00.30.5
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4031377/survei-charta-politika-jokowi-512-prabowo-233-gatot-55 Charta Politika]13-19 Apr 20182,00051.223.32.05.52.73.40.6
[https://news.detik.com/berita/4007662/gerindra-survei-ines-paling-bener-yang-lain-ngawur INES]12 - 28 April 20182,18027.750.27.4
[https://news.detik.com/berita/3980417/survei-cyrus-elektabilitas-jokowi-585-prabowo-218-gatot-2 Cyrus]27 March-3 April 20181,23056.719.81.63.22.11.62.2
[https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/04/16/14114671/survei-median-elektabilitas-jokowi-naik-prabowo-turun Median]24 March-6 April 20181,20036.220.44.37.01.82.01.6
[https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/04/23/08051871/survei-kompas-jokowi-559-persen-prabowo-141-persen Kompas]21 March-1 April 20181,20055.914.11.8
[https://news.detik.com/berita/3971661/survei-kedaikopi-jokowi-483--prabowo-215--gatot-21- KedaiKOPI]19-27 March 20181,13548.321.52.11.11.10.5
{{nowrap|[https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20180228190219-32-279496/survei-populi-prabowo-kalah-telak-jika-pilpres-hari-ini Populi Center]}}7–16 February 20181,20064.325.3
[https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/02/22/14463261/survei-median-elektabilitas-jokowi-dan-prabowo-turun-tokoh-lain-naik Median]1–9 February 20181,00035.021.25.53.34.5
[https://poltracking.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PETA-ELEKTORAL-KANDIDAT-DAN-4-SKENARIO-KOALISI-PILPRES-2019.pdf Poltracking]27 January-3 February 20181,20045.419.80.50.30.80.60.3
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-3869477/survei-indo-barometer-jokowi-327-prabowo-191-ahok-29 Indo Barometer]23–30 January 20181,20032.719.12.12.72.52.52.90.8
[https://www.merdeka.com/politik/survei-smrc-sebut-elektabilitas-jokowi-menguat-jika-pilpres-hanya-dua-paslon.html SMRC]7–13 December 20171,22038.910.50.91.21.71.3
[https://detik.com/news/berita/d-3774559/survei-polmark-elektabilitas-jokowi-502-dan-prabowo-22 PolMark]13–25 November 20172,60050.222.00.72.04.84.51.6
[https://news.okezone.com/read/2017/12/03/337/1824401/survei-indo-barometer-jokowi-34-9-prabowo-12-1 Indo Barometer]15–23 November 20171,20034.912.13.22.53.63.3
Poltracking8–15 November 20172,40041.518.20.90.80.80.5
Populi Center19–26 October 20171,20049.421.70.42.00.70.7
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-3695442/jokowi-kian-tak-aman-menuju-pilpres-2019 PolMark]22 October 20172,25041.2212.9
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-3695442/jokowi-kian-tak-aman-menuju-pilpres-2019 Median]2 October 20171,00036.223.22.62.84.4
Indikator17–24 September 20171,22034.211.50.70.50.50.51
SMRC3–10 September 20171,22038.9120.80.30.30.90.80.6
[https://news.detik.com/berita/d-3524826/survei-smrc-bila-head-to-head-pilpres-jokowi-537-prabowo-372 SMRC]14–20 May 20171,50053.737.2
[https://kumparan.com/ananda-wardhiati-teresia/smrc-elektabilitas-jokowi-34-1-prabowo-17-2 SMRC]14–20 May 20171,50034.117.20.40.30.40.40.91.1
KompasApril 201741.622.1
NOTE: See warning above{{Hidden end}}

References

1. ^{{cite news |title=Jokowi vs. Prabowo: Who Will Win in 2019? |url=http://insight.jakartaglobe.id/jokowi-vs-prabowo-who-will-win-in-2019/ |accessdate=24 September 2018 |work=Jakarta Globe}}
2. ^{{cite news |last1=Chandran |first1=Nyshka |title=Two years on, Indonesian President Jokowi is just getting started |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/18/indonesian-president-jokowi-celebrates-2-years-in-office-with-an-eye-on-2019-vote.html |accessdate=24 September 2018 |work=CNBC |date=18 October 2016}}
3. ^{{cite news |title=Fears of Muslim Identity Politics in 2019 Presidential Election|url=http://insight.jakartaglobe.id/fears-muslim-identity-politics-2019-presidential-election/ |accessdate=24 September 2018 |work=Jakarta Globe}}
4. ^{{cite news |title=‘Political Islam’ Threatens Indonesia’s Jokowi - Asia Sentinel |url=https://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/political-islam-threaten-indonesia-jokowi/ |accessdate=24 September 2018 |work=Asia Sentinel |date=9 April 2018}}
5. ^{{cite news |title=KPU Receives List of Voters in 2019 Elections|url=http://jakartaglobe.id/news/kpu-receives-list-voters-2019-elections/ |accessdate=24 September 2018 |work=Jakarta Globe |date=16 December 2017}}
6. ^{{cite web |title=Inilah Undang-Undang Nomor 7 Tahun 2017 tentang Pemilihan Umum (2) |url=http://setkab.go.id/inilah-undang-undang-nomor-7-tahun-2017-tentang-pemilihan-umum-2/ |website=setkab.go.id |accessdate=22 September 2018 |language=id}}
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17. ^{{cite news |last1=Farisa |first1=Fitria Chusna |title=Bawaslu Prediksi Jumlah Pemilih Ganda Pemilu 2019 Capai 2 Juta |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/09/12/18420801/bawaslu-prediksi-jumlah-pemilih-ganda-pemilu-2019-capai-2-juta |accessdate=7 November 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=12 September 2018 |language=id}}
18. ^{{cite news |title=Political parties dispute voters list |url=http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/09/04/political-parties-dispute-voters-list.html |accessdate=16 October 2018 |work=The Jakarta Post |date=4 September 2018}}
19. ^{{cite news |last1=Saragih |first1=Samgysara |title=KPU: WNI Naturalisasi Boleh Jadi Capres atau Cawapres |url=http://kabar24.bisnis.com/read/20180523/15/798770/kpu-wni-naturalisasi-boleh-jadi-capres-atau-cawapres |accessdate=20 October 2018 |work=Kabar24 |date=23 May 2018 |language=id}}
20. ^{{cite news |last1=Salna |first1=Karlis |title=Indonesia’s Election May Only Have One Candidate |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-07/indonesia-s-presidential-election-maybe-only-have-one-candidate |accessdate=15 October 2018 |work=Bloomberg |date=7 May 2018}}
21. ^{{cite news |title=It's official: Prabowo to join 2019 race |url=http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/04/12/its-official-prabowo-to-join-2019-race.html |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=The Jakarta Post |date=12 April 2018 |language=en}}
22. ^{{cite news |last1=McBeth, John |title=Indonesia moving toward a one-horse race |url=http://www.atimes.com/article/indonesia-moving-toward-one-horse-race/ |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=Asia Times |date=15 April 2018}}
23. ^{{cite news |last1=Putra |first1=Putu Merta Surya |title=Mengurai Cerita Prabowo Dilirik Jadi Cawapres Jokowi |url=https://www.liputan6.com/pilpres/read/3473634/mengurai-cerita-prabowo-dilirik-jadi-cawapres-jokowi |accessdate=15 October 2018 |work=liputan6.com |date=21 April 2018 |language=id}}
24. ^{{cite news |title=Jokowi may run unopposed in next polls |url=https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/jokowi-may-run-unopposed-in-next-polls |accessdate=15 October 2018 |work=The Straits Times |date=9 May 2018}}
25. ^{{cite news |title=Pendaftaran Capres-Cawapres 2019 Resmi Dibuka |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/08/04/08000091/pendaftaran-capres-cawapres-2019-resmi-dibuka |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=4 August 2018 |language=id}}
26. ^{{cite news |last1=Prasetia |first1=Andhika |title=Drama Jokowi Deklarasi Cawapres dan Show Off Prabowo Daftar Pilpres |url=https://news.detik.com/berita/4160669/drama-jokowi-deklarasi-cawapres-dan-show-off-prabowo-daftar-pilpres |accessdate=15 October 2018 |work=detiknews |date=10 August 2018 |language=id}}
27. ^{{cite news |title=Drama Penunjukan Sandiaga Uno Jadi Cawapres Prabowo |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/08/10/08230561/drama-penunjukan-sandiaga-uno-jadi-cawapres-prabowo?page=all |accessdate=15 October 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=10 August 2018 |language=id}}
28. ^{{cite news |last1=Putri |first1=Teatrika Handiko |title=Pilpres 2019: PAN Akhirnya Resmi Dukung Prabowo |url=https://www.idntimes.com/news/indonesia/teatrika/pilpres-2019-pan-akhirnya-resmi-dukung-prabowo |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=IDN Times |date=9 August 2018 |language=id}}
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31. ^{{cite news |last1=Chairunnisa |first1=Ninis |title=PPP: Koalisi Jokowi Sudah Final, Tak Bertambah atau Berkurang |url=https://nasional.tempo.co/read/1115565/ppp-koalisi-jokowi-sudah-final-tak-bertambah-atau-berkurang/full&view=ok |accessdate=20 October 2018 |work=Tempo |date=10 August 2018 |language=id-ID}}
32. ^{{cite news |title=Prabowo Coalition to Finalize VP Candidate Name Tonight |url=https://en.tempo.co/read/news/2018/08/08/055920645/Prabowo-Coalition-to-Finalize-VP-Candidate-Name-Tonight |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=Tempo |date=8 August 2018}}
33. ^{{cite news |last1=Putri |first1=Adinda |title=Asman Abnur Quits Jokowi Cabinet as PAN Joins Prabowo Camp |url=https://jakartaglobe.id/politics/asman-abnur-quits-jokowi-cabinet-as-pan-joins-prabowo-camp/ |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=Jakarta Globe |date=14 August 2018}}
34. ^{{cite news |last1=Ihsanuddin |title=Ini Alasan Prabowo-Sandi Pilih Nama "Koalisi Indonesia Adil Makmur" |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/09/19/05050031/ini-alasan-prabowo-sandi-pilih-nama-koalisi-indonesia-adil-makmur |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=19 September 2018 |language=id}}
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36. ^{{cite news |last1=Wiwoho |first1=Bimo |title=Abstain di Pilpres, Garuda Fokus Dulang Suara di Pileg 2019 |url=https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20180813140852-32-321863/abstain-di-pilpres-garuda-fokus-dulang-suara-di-pileg-2019 |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=CNN Indonesia |date=14 August 2018 |language=id}}
37. ^{{cite news |last1=Ihsanuddin |title=Tak Diajak Jokowi dan Prabowo, PBB Netral di Pilpres 2019 |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/08/10/16451231/tak-diajak-jokowi-dan-prabowo-pbb-netral-di-pilpres-2019 |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=10 August 2018 |language=id}}
38. ^{{cite news |title=Jokowi Lauds Yusril Ihza Mahendra as a Professional Individual |url=https://en.tempo.co/read/news/2018/11/06/055923194/Jokowi-Lauds-Yusril-Ihza-Mahendra-as-a-Professional-Individual |accessdate=7 November 2018 |work=Tempo |date=6 November 2018}}
39. ^{{cite news |title=9 Sekjen Partai Koalisi Jokowi Pamer Kaos untuk Dukung Jokowi |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/08/06/23513431/9-sekjen-partai-koalisi-jokowi-pamer-kaos-untuk-dukung-jokowi |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=6 August 2018 |language=id}}
40. ^{{cite news |title=Prabowo Ungkap Kesepakatan Koalisi Terkait Komposisi Menteri |url=https://www.liputan6.com/pilpres/read/3634204/prabowo-ungkap-kesepakatan-koalisi-terkait-komposisi-menteri |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=liputan6.com |date=2 September 2018 |language=id}}
41. ^{{cite news |title=Son of former Indonesian president launches think-tank in Jakarta |url=http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/son-of-former-indonesian-president-launches-think-tank-in-jakarta |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=The Straits Times |date=11 August 2017 |language=en}}
42. ^{{cite news |last1=Ihsanuddin |title=AHY: Saya Dukung Penuh Prabowo-Sandi |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/08/10/13413441/ahy-saya-dukung-penuh-prabowo-sandi |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=10 August 2018 |language=id}}
43. ^{{cite news |title=Hidayat Nur Wahid Sebut Aher Jadi Calon Presiden Alternatif yang Akan Diusung PKS |url=http://www.tribunnews.com/nasional/2018/07/02/hidayat-nur-wahid-sebut-aher-jadi-calon-presiden-alternatif-yang-akan-diusung-pks |accessdate=7 October 2018 |work=Tribunnews.com |date=2 July 2018 |language=id-ID}}
44. ^{{cite news |title=Aher Dukung Prabowo untuk Menang Pilpres 2019 |url=https://www.republika.co.id/berita/nasional/politik/18/05/12/p8m6te428-aher-dukung-prabowo-untuk-menang-pilpres-2019 |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=Republika |date=12 May 2018 |language=id}}
45. ^{{cite news |last1=Jordan |first1=Ray |title=Cerita Amien Rais: Teken Capres PA 212, Dicapreskan Koalisi Ummat |url=https://news.detik.com/berita/4092287/cerita-amien-rais-teken-capres-pa-212-dicapreskan-koalisi-ummat |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=detiknews |date=1 July 2018 |language=id}}
46. ^{{cite news |last1=Putra |first1=Putu Merta Surya |title=Prabowo: TGB Dukung Jokowi, Kita Punya Amien Rais |url=https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/3581871/prabowo-tgb-dukung-jokowi-kita-punya-amien-rais |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=liputan6.com |date=8 July 2018 |language=id}}
47. ^{{cite news |title=Anies Baswedan Mengaku Didatangi Massa yang Memintanya Jadi Capres |url=https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/3598385/anies-baswedan-mengaku-didatangi-massa-yang-memintanya-jadi-capres |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=liputan6.com |date=24 July 2018 |language=id}}
48. ^{{cite news |last1=Firdaus |first1=Randy Ferdi |title=Chairul Tanjung masuk bursa Pilpres 2019, ini reaksi PDIP |url=https://www.merdeka.com/politik/chairul-tanjung-masuk-bursa-pilpres-2019-ini-reaksi-pdip.html |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=Merdeka |date=6 June 2018 |language=id}}
49. ^{{cite news |last1=Defianti |first1=Ika |title=Nasdem: Chairul Tanjung Akan Masuk Tim Ekonomi Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin |url=https://www.liputan6.com/pilpres/read/3616374/nasdem-chairul-tanjung-akan-masuk-tim-ekonomi-jokowi-maruf-amin |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=liputan6.com |date=11 August 2018 |language=id}}
50. ^{{cite news |title=Parpol Masih Cair, Gatot Nurmantyo Optimistis Maju pada Pilpres 2019 |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/07/25/06571231/parpol-masih-cair-gatot-nurmantyo-optimistis-maju-pada-pilpres-2019 |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=25 July 2018 |language=id}}
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56. ^{{cite news |title=Disoraki Mahasiswa Saat Kampanyekan Prabowo-Sandiaga, Ini Kata Zulkifli Hasan |url=https://www.liputan6.com/pilpres/read/3652701/disoraki-mahasiswa-saat-kampanyekan-prabowo-sandiaga-ini-kata-zulkifli-hasan |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=liputan6.com |date=26 September 2018 |language=id}}
57. ^{{cite news |title=Prabowo to Set Up Anti-hoax Team During Election Campaign |url=https://en.tempo.co/read/news/2018/09/23/055921895/Prabowo-to-Set-Up-Anti-hoax-Team-During-Election-Campaign |accessdate=16 October 2018 |work=Tempo |date=23 September 2018}}
58. ^{{cite news |last1=Yulisman |first1=Linda |title=Media tycoon to helm Jokowi's campaign team |url=https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/media-tycoon-to-helm-jokowis-campaign-team |accessdate=16 October 2018 |work=The Straits Times |date=8 September 2018}}
59. ^{{cite news |title=Indonesia President Joko Widodo launches re-election campaign ahead of April polls |url=https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesia-president-joko-widodo-launches-re-election-campaign-ahead-of-april-polls |accessdate=20 October 2018 |work=The Straits Times |date=21 September 2018 |language=en}}
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75. ^{{cite news |last1=Mashabi |first1=Sania |title=PAN usul debat berbahasa Inggris, Gerindra pertimbangkan pakai bahasa yang mudah |url=https://www.merdeka.com/politik/pan-usul-debat-berbahasa-inggris-gerindra-pertimbangkan-pakai-bahasa-yang-mudah.html |accessdate=20 October 2018 |work=Merdeka |date=14 September 2018 |language=id}}
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80. ^{{cite news |title=Election bill passed, presidential threshold intact |url=http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/07/21/election-bill-passed-presidential-threshold-intact.html |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=The Jakarta Post |date=21 July 2017 |language=en}}
81. ^{{cite news |title=Rapimnas Dibuka, Hanura Resmi Deklarasikan Dukung Jokowi di Pilpres 2019 |url=https://news.okezone.com/read/2017/08/04/337/1749682/rapimnas-dibuka-hanura-resmi-deklarasikan-dukung-jokowi-di-pilpres-2019 |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=Okezone |date=4 August 2017 |language=id-ID}}
82. ^{{cite news |last1=Andayani |first1=Dwi |title=Resmi Ditutup KPU, 27 Parpol Daftar sebagai Peserta Pemilu 2019 |url=https://news.detik.com/berita/3686991/resmi-ditutup-kpu-27-parpol-daftar-sebagai-peserta-pemilu-2019 |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=detiknews |date=17 October 2017 |language=id}}
83. ^{{cite news |title=Resmi, Nasdem Dukung Jokowi di Pilpres 2019 |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2017/11/15/21101151/resmi-nasdem-dukung-jokowi-di-pilpres-2019 |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=15 November 2017 |language=id}}
84. ^{{cite news |title=BREAKING: PDI-P officially endorses Jokowi for 2019 presidential election |url=http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/02/23/breaking-pdi-p-officially-endorses-jokowi-for-2019-presidential-election.html |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=The Jakarta Post |date=23 February 2018 |language=en}}
85. ^{{cite news |last1=Agus |first1=Feri |title=Gerindra Resmi Usung Prabowo Subianto Jadi Capres |url=https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20180411134752-32-290020/gerindra-resmi-usung-prabowo-subianto-jadi-capres |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=CNN Indonesia |date=11 April 2018 |language=id}}
86. ^{{cite news |last1=Vaessen |first1=Step |title=Indonesia election season kicks off with crucial local polls |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/06/indonesia-election-season-kicks-crucial-local-polls-180626132525097.html |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=Al Jazeera |date=26 June 2018}}
87. ^{{cite news |title=PKB Resmi Dukung Jokowi untuk Pilpres 2019 |url=https://regional.kompas.com/read/2018/07/14/14044011/pkb-resmi-dukung-jokowi-untuk-pilpres-2019 |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=14 July 2018 |language=id}}
88. ^{{cite news |title=BREAKING: MUI chief Ma’ruf Amin tapped as Jokowi’s running mate |url=http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/08/09/breaking-mui-chief-maruf-amien-tapped-as-jokowis-running-mate.html |accessdate=9 August 2018 |work=The Jakarta Post |date=9 August 2018 |language=en}}
89. ^{{cite news |last1=Nathalia |first1=Telly |title=Prabowo Picks Sandiaga Uno as Running Mate in 2019 Presidential Race |url=http://www.jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/news/prabowo-picks-sandiaga-uno-as-running-mate-in-2019-presidential-race |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=Jakarta Globe |date=10 August 2018}}
90. ^{{cite news |title=PKS Resmi Dukung Prabowo Capres di 2019 |url=https://kumparan.com/@kumparannews/pks-resmi-dukung-prabowo-capres-di-2019-1533814983435184598 |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=Kumparan |date=9 August 2018 |language=id-ID}}
91. ^{{cite news |last1=Putri |first1=Teatrika Handiko |title=Pilpres 2019: PAN Akhirnya Resmi Dukung Prabowo |url=https://www.idntimes.com/news/indonesia/teatrika/pilpres-2019-pan-akhirnya-resmi-dukung-prabowo |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=IDN Times |date=9 August 2018 |language=id}}
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93. ^{{cite news |title=Berkarya Dukung Prabowo-Sandiaga, Titiek Hadir ke KPU |url=http://www.tribunnews.com/nasional/2018/08/10/berkarya-dukung-prabowo-sandiaga-titiek-hadir-ke-kpu |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=Tribunnews.com |date=10 August 2018 |language=id-ID}}
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95. ^{{cite news |title=KPU Sahkan DPT Pemilu 2019 dengan Catatan |url=https://www.viva.co.id/berita/politik/1072062-kpu-sahkan-dpt-pemilu-2019-dengan-catatan |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=VIVA |date=5 September 2018 |language=id}}
96. ^{{cite news |title=KPU Tetapkan Jokowi-Ma'ruf dan Prabowo-Sandi sebagai Capres-Cawapres |url=https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2018/09/20/17022411/kpu-tetapkan-jokowi-maruf-dan-prabowo-sandi-sebagai-capres-cawapres |accessdate=24 September 2018 |work=KOMPAS |date=20 September 2018 |language=id}}
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100. ^{{cite news |title=Indonesia’s Jokowi Still Looks Good for 2019, Polls Say|url=https://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/indonesia-jokowi-still-looks-good-2019-polls/ |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=Asia Sentinel |date=24 July 2018}}
101. ^{{cite news |title=Jokowi may run unopposed in next polls |url=https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/jokowi-may-run-unopposed-in-next-polls |accessdate=2 November 2018 |work=The Straits Times |date=9 May 2018 |language=en}}
102. ^{{cite news |last1=Hidayat |first1=Reja |title=Rawan Kepentingan: Campur Aduk Lembaga Survei & Jasa Konsultan |url=https://tirto.id/rawan-kepentingan-campur-aduk-lembaga-survei-amp-jasa-konsultan-cJkL |accessdate=22 September 2018 |work=tirto.id |date=25 April 2018 |language=id}}
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