1. Origins

2. Brexit was inevitable

3. Brexit could not have been predicted

4. References

On the 26 June 2016, a referendum was called to determine whether the UK was going to stay a member of the European Union, one of which it has been since 1973. The consensus resulted in a 52% vote to leave the EU. Scholars have been in debate as to whether Brexit was inevitable, or whether it could not have been predicted.

Origins

The term Brexit was first used by Peter Wilding^[1] when discussing the possible withdrawal of the UK from the EU. The actual word itself is a portmanteau of "British" and "exit" word now which is referenced every day in politics. The origins of this article come from a substantial debate on whether Brexit was inevitable for Britain, a decision which had been baked for a long time, or whether it was as huge a shock as politicians made it out to be.

Brexit was inevitable

A main argument in this topic is "The Awkward Partner Thesis"^[2] proposed by Stephen George, which argues that Britain has been a perceived as a long standing 'Awkward Partner' of the Eu, and has a reluctance towards Europe, which is where this Brexit vote has derived from. Combined with an increase in hostility to immigration, and an increase in Euroscepticism, Stephen George complies up to date analysis in support of Brexit being inevitable.

Another, equally as important scholar Helen Thompson, wrote an article called 'Inevitability and contingency: The political economy of Brexit' this suggests that Britain was at some stage always going to leave the EU, in terms of economics. The biggest factor being the refusal to join the single currency (the euro) in Europe.

Data polls have suggested that Brexit was inevitable, analysis of twelve years covering 150,000 voters are conclusive that negative attitudes towards the EU have not just occurred over night^[3].

Euroscepticism meaning the opposition to the EU, in Britain, has been historically lower than any other member nation^[4]. Citizens in the UK are the least likely to identify as 'European', whereas the majority would place national sovereignty, and the sense of being 'British' or by extension 'English' above feeling 'European'.

Brexit could not have been predicted

Data polls from Ipsos Mori^[5]suggest that the departing of the Britain from the EU, could not have been predicted. Data from 1977 reveals that 47% of the public would have voted to remain in the EU, compared with 42% voting to leave, however the following year (1948) a higher percentage of the public said they would have voted to leave (48%) compared to 43% of the public who would have voted to stay. There have been fluctuations in whether the public is in favour of remaining or from 1977 until 2014.

References

• Songs for Tibet: The Art of Peace
• Songs for Tibet — The Art of Peace
• Songs for Wandering Souls
• Songs for When the Sun Goes Down
• Songs for when the Sun Goes down
• Songs for When The Sun Goes Down
• Songs for You
• Songs for You, Truths for Me
• Songs For You, Truths For Me
• Songs (Fra Lippo Lippi album)
• Songs from an Unmarried Housewife and Mother, Greenwich Village, USA
• Songs from a Parent to a Child
• Songs from A Parent to A Child
• Songs from a Solitary Home
• Songs from a Solitary Home (Album)
• Songs from glee
• Songs from Home
• Songs from Home: Live Concert Recording
• Songs from Instant Star Four
• Songs from Instant Star Three
• Songs from last century
• Songs from Lonely Avenue
• Songs from Low Story
• Songs From Low Story
• Songs from Martin St