释义 |
- Caucuses
- Campaign Predictions Polling Fundraising Advertising and visits
- Analysis
- Results
- Results breakdown By county By congressional district
- Electors
- References
{{main|2004 United States presidential election}}{{Infobox Election | election_name = 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan | country = Michigan | type = presidential | ongoing = no | previous_election = 2000 United States presidential election in Michigan | previous_year = 2000 | next_election = 2008 United States presidential election in Michigan | next_year = 2008 | turnout = 64.7% {{increase}} [1] | election_date = November 2, 2004 | image1 = | nominee1 = John Kerry | party1 = Democratic Party (United States) | home_state1 = Massachusetts | running_mate1 = John Edwards | electoral_vote1 = 17 | popular_vote1 = 2,479,183 | percentage1 = 51.23% | image2 = | nominee2 = George W. Bush | party2 = Republican Party (United States) | home_state2 = Texas | running_mate2 = Dick Cheney | electoral_vote2 = 0 | popular_vote2 = 2,313,746 | percentage2 = 47.81% | map_image = MichiganPresidentialElection2004.svg | map_size = 375px | map_caption = County Results{{col-start}}{{col-2}}Kerry{{legend|#b9d7ff|40-50%}}{{legend|#86b6f2|50-60%}}{{legend|#4389e3|60-70%}}{{col-2}}Bush{{legend|#f2b3be|40-50%}}{{legend|#e27f90|50-60%}}{{legend|#cc2f4a|60-70%}}{{legend|#d40000|70-80%}}{{col-end}} | title = President | before_election = George W. Bush | before_party = Republican Party (United States) | after_election = George W. Bush | after_party = Republican Party (United States) }}The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Michigan was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations predicted Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state. Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, 2004 also marked the first time since 1976 in which the state was not carried by the candidate who led in the overall popular vote. As of 2019, this is the most recent election in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate. Caucuses - 2004 Michigan Democratic caucuses
Campaign{{ElectionsMI}}PredictionsThere were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2] - D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
- Associated Press: Toss-Up
- CNN: Kerry
- Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
- Newsweek: Leans Kerry
- New York Times: Leans Kerry
- Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
- Research 2000: Lean Kerry
- Washington Post: Battleground
- Washington Times: Leans Kerry
- Zogby International: Kerry
- Washington Dispatch: Kerry
PollingPre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.[3] FundraisingBush raised $4,960,010.[4] Kerry raised $2,496,203.[5] Advertising and visitsIn the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,[6] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.[7] Analysis The state has competitive suburban counties with a large Roman Catholic population. Kerry won this state with 51%. George W. Bush performed moderately well, but below potential. In the state, Bush won a majority of the counties and congressional districts, but below potential in suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Bush's lack of attention to economic issues important to Michigan voters may have been a reason for Kerry's win. Kerry won 70% of Wayne County, Detroit. Both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won the state of Michigan. Results 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan |
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Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes |
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| Democratic | John Kerry | 2,479,183 | 51.3% | 17 |
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| Republican | George W. Bush (incumbent) | 2,313,746 | 47.8% | 0 |
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| Independent | Ralph Nader | 24,035 | 0.5% | 0 |
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| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 10,552 | 0.2% | 0 |
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| Green | David Cobb | 5,325 | 0.1% | 0 |
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| US Taxpayers | Michael Peroutka | 4,980 | 0.1% | 0 |
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| Natural Law | Walt Brown | 1,431 | 0.0% | 0 |
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Totals | 4,839,252 | 100.00% | 17 | Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) | 64.2% |
Results breakdown By countyCounty | Kerry | Bush | Others | Total votes |
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% | # | % | # | % | # |
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Alcona County | 43.96% | 2,871 | 55.00% | 3,592 | 1.04% | 68 | 6,531 | Alger County | 50.26% | 2,395 | 48.65% | 2,318 | 1.09% | 52 | 4,765 | Allegan County | 35.90% | 19,355 | 63.11% | 34,022 | 0.98% | 530 | 53,907 | Alpena County | 48.70% | 7,407 | 50.39% | 7,665 | 0.91% | 139 | 15,211 | Antrim County | 37.24% | 5,072 | 61.52% | 8,379 | 1.23% | 168 | 13,619 | Arenac County | 49.61% | 4,076 | 49.55% | 4,071 | 0.84% | 69 | 8,216 | Baraga County | 45.06% | 1,660 | 53.66% | 1,977 | 1.28% | 47 | 3,684 | Barry County | 37.37% | 11,312 | 61.57% | 18,638 | 1.06% | 322 | 30,272 | Bay County | 54.42% | 31,049 | 44.60% | 25,448 | 0.98% | 562 | 57,059 | Benzie County | 44.83% | 4,383 | 54.04% | 5,284 | 1.14% | 111 | 9,778 | Berrien County | 43.99% | 32,846 | 55.01% | 41,076 | 1.00% | 749 | 74,671 | Branch County | 38.98% | 7,004 | 60.02% | 10,784 | 1.00% | 179 | 17,967 | Calhoun County | 47.70% | 29,891 | 51.21% | 32,093 | 1.09% | 683 | 62,667 | Cass County | 42.02% | 9,537 | 57.12% | 12,964 | 0.86% | 196 | 22,697 | Charlevoix County | 40.52% | 5,729 | 58.09% | 8,214 | 1.39% | 196 | 14,139 | Cheboygan County | 42.78% | 5,941 | 56.15% | 7,798 | 1.07% | 148 | 13,887 | Chippewa County | 43.69% | 7,203 | 55.33% | 9,122 | 0.99% | 163 | 16,488 | Clare County | 49.09% | 6,984 | 49.82% | 7,088 | 1.08% | 154 | 14,226 | Clinton County | 40.95% | 15,483 | 58.16% | 21,989 | 0.89% | 335 | 37,807 | Crawford County | 43.21% | 3,126 | 55.52% | 4,017 | 1.27% | 92 | 7,235 | Delta County | 48.76% | 9,381 | 50.32% | 9,680 | 0.92% | 177 | 19,238 | Dickinson County | 41.70% | 5,650 | 57.08% | 7,734 | 1.22% | 165 | 13,549 | Eaton County | 45.58% | 25,411 | 53.41% | 29,781 | 1.01% | 563 | 55,755 | Emmet County | 39.41% | 6,846 | 59.48% | 10,332 | 1.12% | 194 | 17,372 | Genesee County | 60.34% | 128,334 | 39.43% | 83,870 | 0.23% | 489 | 212,693 | Gladwin County | 43.20% | 6,343 | 46.10% | 6,770 | 10.70% | 1,571 | 14,684 | Gogebic County | 52.20% | 4,421 | 46.46% | 3,935 | 1.35% | 114 | 8,470 | Grand Traverse County | 39.86% | 18,256 | 59.93% | 27,446 | 0.21% | 96 | 45,798 | Gratiot County | 42.45% | 7,377 | 56.59% | 9,834 | 0.97% | 168 | 17,379 | Hillsdale County | 35.23% | 7,123 | 63.34% | 12,804 | 1.43% | 289 | 20,216 | Houghton County | 42.46% | 6,731 | 56.08% | 8,889 | 1.46% | 231 | 15,851 | Huron County | 43.68% | 7,629 | 55.37% | 9,671 | 0.95% | 166 | 17,466 | Ingham County | 57.78% | 76,877 | 41.14% | 54,734 | 1.08% | 1,442 | 133,053 | Ionia County | 38.55% | 10,647 | 60.18% | 16,621 | 1.27% | 350 | 27,618 | Iosco County | 46.82% | 6,557 | 52.13% | 7,301 | 1.06% | 148 | 14,006 | Iron County | 49.38% | 3,215 | 49.52% | 3,224 | 1.11% | 72 | 6,511 | Isabella County | 50.57% | 12,334 | 48.19% | 11,754 | 1.24% | 302 | 24,390 | Jackson County | 43.21% | 31,025 | 55.75% | 40,029 | 1.03% | 741 | 71,795 | Kalamazoo County | 51.31% | 61,462 | 47.71% | 57,147 | 0.98% | 1,174 | 119,783 | Kalkaska County | 38.05% | 3,189 | 60.67% | 5,084 | 1.28% | 107 | 8,380 | Kent County | 40.19% | 116,909 | 58.85% | 171,201 | 0.96% | 2,781 | 290,891 | Keweenaw County | 43.78% | 630 | 54.27% | 781 | 1.95% | 28 | 1,439 | Lake County | 50.99% | 2,675 | 47.71% | 2,503 | 1.30% | 68 | 5,246 | Lapeer County | 40.97% | 18,086 | 57.89% | 25,556 | 1.14% | 505 | 44,147 | Leelanau County | 43.46% | 6,048 | 55.57% | 7,733 | 0.98% | 136 | 13,917 | Lenawee County | 44.22% | 20,787 | 54.61% | 25,675 | 1.17% | 550 | 47,012 | Livingston County | 36.26% | 33,991 | 62.79% | 58,860 | 0.95% | 891 | 93,742 | Luce County | 36.94% | 1,045 | 61.82% | 1,749 | 1.24% | 35 | 2,829 | Mackinac County | 42.72% | 2,819 | 56.16% | 3,706 | 1.12% | 74 | 6,599 | Macomb County | 48.75% | 196,160 | 50.24% | 202,166 | 1.01% | 4,084 | 402,410 | Manistee County | 49.23% | 6,272 | 49.41% | 6,295 | 1.36% | 173 | 12,740 | Marquette County | 53.60% | 17,412 | 45.22% | 14,690 | 1.19% | 386 | 32,488 | Mason County | 43.34% | 6,333 | 55.60% | 8,124 | 1.05% | 154 | 14,611 | Mecosta County | 43.97% | 7,730 | 55.23% | 9,710 | 0.80% | 141 | 17,581 | Menominee County | 46.64% | 5,326 | 52.04% | 5,942 | 1.32% | 151 | 11,419 | Midland County | 42.41% | 18,355 | 56.31% | 24,369 | 1.27% | 551 | 43,275 | Missaukee County | 31.25% | 2,319 | 68.12% | 5,055 | 0.63% | 47 | 7,421 | Monroe County | 48.68% | 36,089 | 50.54% | 37,470 | 0.77% | 573 | 74,132 | Montcalm County | 42.91% | 11,471 | 55.99% | 14,968 | 1.10% | 295 | 26,734 | Montmorency County | 39.48% | 2,196 | 59.32% | 3,300 | 1.20% | 67 | 5,563 | Muskegon County | 55.14% | 44,282 | 43.96% | 35,302 | 0.91% | 729 | 80,313 | Newaygo County | 39.60% | 9,057 | 59.49% | 13,608 | 0.91% | 208 | 22,873 | Oakland County | 49.75% | 319,387 | 49.32% | 316,633 | 0.93% | 5,957 | 641,977 | Oceana County | 44.25% | 5,441 | 54.30% | 6,677 | 1.46% | 179 | 12,297 | Ogemaw County | 48.30% | 5,215 | 50.52% | 5,454 | 1.18% | 127 | 10,796 | Ontonagon County | 44.44% | 1,863 | 53.96% | 2,262 | 1.60% | 67 | 4,192 | Osceola County | 39.93% | 4,467 | 58.98% | 6,599 | 1.09% | 122 | 11,188 | Oscoda County | 40.64% | 1,792 | 58.29% | 2,570 | 1.07% | 47 | 4,409 | Otsego County | 37.98% | 4,674 | 60.70% | 7,470 | 1.32% | 163 | 12,307 | Ottawa County | 27.64% | 35,552 | 71.55% | 92,048 | 0.81% | 1,043 | 128,643 | Presque Isle County | 45.66% | 3,432 | 52.98% | 3,982 | 1.36% | 102 | 7,516 | Roscommon County | 47.43% | 6,810 | 51.28% | 7,364 | 1.29% | 185 | 14,359 | Saginaw County | 53.37% | 54,887 | 45.86% | 47,165 | 0.78% | 800 | 102,852 | St. Clair County | 45.70% | 36,174 | 53.99% | 42,740 | 0.31% | 248 | 79,162 | St. Joseph County | 38.55% | 9,648 | 61.30% | 15,340 | 0.15% | 37 | 25,025 | Sanilac County | 37.76% | 7,883 | 60.50% | 12,632 | 1.74% | 363 | 20,878 | Schoolcraft County | 40.84% | 2,137 | 43.32% | 2,267 | 15.84% | 829 | 5,233 | Shiawassee County | 46.20% | 16,881 | 53.11% | 19,407 | 0.69% | 251 | 36,539 | Tuscola County | 44.57% | 12,631 | 54.31% | 15,389 | 1.12% | 318 | 28,338 | Van Buren County | 47.26% | 16,151 | 51.60% | 17,634 | 1.14% | 389 | 34,174 | Washtenaw County | 63.46% | 109,953 | 35.47% | 61,455 | 1.07% | 1,856 | 173,264 | Wayne County | 69.39% | 600,047 | 29.81% | 257,750 | 0.80% | 6,931 | 864,728 | Wexford County | 39.80% | 6,034 | 59.14% | 8,966 | 1.06% | 160 | 15,160 |
By congressional districtBush won 10 of 15 congressional districts.[8] District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
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{{ushr|Michigan|1|1st | 53% | 46% | Bart Stupak |
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{{ushr|Michigan|2|2nd | 60% | 39% | Peter Hoekstra |
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{{ushr|Michigan|3|3rd | 59% | 40% | Vern Ehlers |
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{{ushr|Michigan|4|4th | 55% | 44% | Dave Camp |
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{{ushr|Michigan|5|5th | 41% | 59% | Dale Kildee |
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{{ushr|Michigan|6|6th | 53% | 46% | Fred Upton |
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{{ushr|Michigan|7|7th | 54% | 45% | Nick Smith |
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Joe Schwarz | {{ushr|Michigan|8|8th | 54% | 45% | Mike Rogers |
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{{ushr|Michigan|9|9th | 51% | 49% | Joe Knollenberg |
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{{ushr|Michigan|10|10th | 57% | 43% | Candice Miller |
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{{ushr|Michigan|11|11th | 53% | 47% | Thaddeus McCotter |
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{{ushr|Michigan|12|12th | 39% | 61% | Sander Levin |
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{{ushr|Michigan|13|13th | 19% | 81% | Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick |
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{{ushr|Michigan|14|14th | 17% | 83% | John Conyers Jr. |
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{{ushr|Michigan|15|15th | 38% | 62% | John Dingell |
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Electors{{Main|List of 2004 United States presidential electors}}Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards: - Carol Vining Moore
- Margaret Robinson
- Ida I. DeHaas
- Marcela L. Ort
- Vickie Sue Price
- Paul Todd
- Leonard Smigielski
- Bruce McAttee
- Stanley W. Harris
- Yvonne Williams
- Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
- Charley Jackson
- Joan Robinson Cheeks
- Roger Short
- Harless Scott
- Richard Shoemaker
- Michael Pitt
References1. ^http://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-1633_8722-29616--,00.html 2. ^http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW{{dead link|date=July 2016 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} 3. ^http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=26 4. ^http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 5. ^http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 6. ^http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ 7. ^http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/MI/ 8. ^http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
{{State Results of the 2004 U.S. presidential election}}{{2004 U.S. presidential election}} 3 : 2004 United States presidential election by state|United States presidential elections in Michigan|2004 Michigan elections |