“Hwasong-14”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

The Hwasong-14 (Chosŏn'gŭl: 화성 14호; hancha: 火星 14号, meaning Mars-14), also known under alternative US designation codename KN-20,^[7] is a mobile intercontinental ballistic missile developed by North Korea. It had its maiden flight on 4 July 2017, which coincided with the United States' Independence Day.^[11] North Korea is the only known operator of this missile.

Design

The Hwasong-14 is likely a two-staged version of the Hwasong-12 first tested in May 2017.^[12] The second stage appears to have increased its range.^[12] The first stage engine appears very similar to the Hwasong-12. With a single liquid fuel engine, it has four Vernier thrusters for stability and guidance.^[12]

A detailed analysis by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists claims that the current variant of the Hwasong-14 may not even be capable of delivering a first-generation nuclear warhead to Anchorage, Alaska. But even if North Korea is now capable of fabricating a relatively light-weight, “miniaturized” atomic bomb that can survive the extreme reentry environments of long-range rocket delivery, it will, with certainty, not be able to deliver such an atomic bomb to the lower 48 states of the United States with the rocket tested on July 3 and July 28.^[13]

The missile is launched from a detachable platform on a concrete pad. This could have several operational ramifications. It may increase the time required to launch the Hwasong-12, and limit the number of launch locations to pre-sited and pre-constructed launch pads.^[14]

Engine

Michael Elleman of IISS and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists^[13] both claim that available evidence clearly indicates that the engine is based on the Soviet RD-250 (R-36 (missile)) family of engines,^[15] and has been modified to operate as the boosting force for the Hwasong-12 and -14. According to his theory an unknown number of these engines were probably acquired though illicit channels operating in Russia and/or Ukraine. North Korea’s need for an alternative to the failing Musudan and the recent appearance of the RD-250 engine along with other evidence, suggests the transfers occurred in 2015-2017.^[3] Ukraine rejected this theory claiming it was "most likely provoked by Russian secret services to cover their own crimes.”^[16] Other US experts have questioned whether the evidence for Elleman's theory is strong enough to back up his claims.^[17] Engine maker Yuzhnoye Design Office denied that the engines were supplied to North Korea by Ukraine.^[18]

In August 2017 the State Space Agency of Ukraine claimed that the rocket engine used during 28 July 2017 North Korea's missile test was RD-250 made at a Ukrainian factory, but solely for use in Tsyklon space rockets supplied to Russia. The space agency chief said that according to Ukrainian information, “Russia today has between 7 and 20” of the Tsyklon rockets...They have these engines, they have the documentation. They can supply these engines from the finished rockets to whoever they want.”^[19] The agency also claimed that a total of 223 Tsyklon-2 and Tsyklon-3 rockets were supplied to Russia.^[20] Furthermore, he stated that North Korea cannot produce the fuel for the RD-250 (N₂O₄ and UDMH), and that it must have been produced either in China or in Russia.^[19]

According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea received 20 to 40 RD-251 engines from Russia in 2016.^[21]

Arms expert Jeffrey Lewis claimed that "The second stage of North Korea's Hwasong-14 missile is similar to the upper stages designed for the Iranian space launch vehicles".^[22]

List of Hwasong-14 tests

First test flight

The first publicly announced flight test was on the 4th July 2017,{{efn-lr|There is a 12½ hour time difference from North Korean local time to Eastern Daylight Time. The missile was launched at 9am, North Korean local time, on the morning of 4th July. This was 8:30pm Washington time on the evening of 3rd July.}} to coincide with the US Independence Day celebrations. This flight had a claimed range of {{convert|933|km|mile}} eastwards into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea) and reached an altitude of {{convert|2802|km|ft}} during a 39-minute flight.^[35]

This range was deliberately shortened, to avoid encroaching on other nations' territory, by 'lofting' the missile: firing it on a trajectory that was inefficiently high, rather than optimised for range. This allows the missile's performance to be tested and demonstrated, without requiring a huge test range.^[35]

A prediction for the possible range, following an optimum trajectory, has been given at {{convert|6700|km|mile}} or as much as {{convert|10,400|km|mile}} not taking into account the Earth’s rotation. If true, then this brings the U.S. states of Alaska and Hawaii within the missile's range.^[35]

Second test flight

Preparations for a second test flight were detected by US intelligence as early as 20 July.^[26] On 28 July, the missile was fired at 11:41 p.m local time, the first time which a night time launch was carried out.^[28]^[29] The missile was fired at a lofted trajectory with apogee of {{convert|3,700|km|mi|abbr=on}}, landing {{convert|998|km|mi|abbr=on}} away with a total flight time of approximately 47 minutes.

Based on the data from the test flight, if the missile were fired at the optimal efficient trajectory, it is predicted that the maximum effective range would exceed {{convert|10,000|km|mi|abbr=on}}. If factoring in the rotation of the Earth, which may provide a range boost when travelling eastward, the Hwasong-14’s coverage area would include the US West Coast, Chicago, and possibly even New York,^[14] but only with a substantially reduced payload.^[30]

Gallery

See also

References

1. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets/Specials/Hwasong-14/index.htm|title=North Korean HS-14 ICBM|author=|date=|website=www.b14643.de|accessdate=12 August 2017}}
2. ^{{cite web|url=http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/north-koreas-icbm-a-new-missile-and-a-new-era/|title=North Korea's ICBM: A New Missile and a New Era|first=Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, The|last=Diplomat|publisher=|accessdate=18 August 2017}}
3. ^¹https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices/blogsections/iiss-voices-2017-adeb/august-2b48/north-korea-icbm-success-3abb
4. ^{{cite web |url=https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/hwasong-14/|title=Hwasong-14 (KN-20)|publisher=Missile Threat CSIS|accessdate=August 24, 2017}}
5. ^{{cite web|url=http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/north-korea-appears-to-launch-missile-with-6700-km-range|title=North Korea Appears to Launch Missile with 6,700 km Range|date=3 July 2017|publisher=}}
6. ^{{cite web|url=http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2017/07/05/0301000000AEN20170705000500315.html|title=N. Korea likely to have operational ICBM capable of striking U.S. West Coast next year or two: U.S. expert|publisher=}}
7. ^¹{{cite web|url=http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/why-is-russia-denying-that-north-korea-launched-an-icbm/|title=Why Is Russia Denying That North Korea Launched an ICBM?|first=Ankit Panda, The|last=Diplomat|date=|website=thediplomat.com|accessdate=12 August 2017}}
8. ^{{cite web|url=http://armscontrolwonk.libsyn.com/north-koreas-icbm-hwasong-14|title=Arms Control Wonk : North Korea's ICBM: Hwasong-14|author=|date=|website=armscontrolwonk.libsyn.com|accessdate=12 August 2017}}
9. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.ucsusa.org/press/2017/north-korean-icbm-appears-able-reach-major-us-cities#.WXxj2eQj6Tm|title=North Korean ICBM Appears Able to Reach Major US Cities|author=|date=|website=ucsusa.org|accessdate=12 August 2017}}
10. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.38north.org/2017/11/melleman112917/|title=North Korea’s Third ICBM Launch - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea|date=29 November 2017|publisher=}}
11. ^{{Cite news |url=http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-says-icbm-an-independence-day-gift-to-american-btards-kcna |title=North Korea's Kim Jong Un says ICBM an Independence Day 'gift' to 'American b**tards': KCNA |date=2017-07-05 |newspaper=The Straits Times |access-date=2017-07-05|language=en}}
12. ^¹²{{cite web | url =https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/hwasong-14/ |title=Hwasong-14|publisher=Center for Strategic and International Studies| accessdate =7 July 2017}}
13. ^¹{{cite web|url=http://thebulletin.org/north-korea%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cnot-quite%E2%80%9D-icbm-can%E2%80%99t-hit-lower-48-states11012|title=Course Correction:|date=11 August 2017|publisher=|accessdate=18 August 2017}}
14. ^¹{{cite web|url=https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/hwasong-14/|title=Hwasong-14 (KN-20) - Missile Threat|author=|date=|website=csis.org|accessdate=12 August 2017}}
15. ^{{cite web|url=http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/north-koreas-new-high-performance-missile-engines-likely-werent-made-in-russia-or-ukraine/|title=North Korea's New High-Performance Missile Engines Likely Weren't Made in Russia or Ukraine|first=Ankit Panda, The|last=Diplomat|publisher=|accessdate=18 August 2017}}
16. ^{{cite web|url=http://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-denies-north-korean-missile-components-state-owned/story?id=49206153|title=Ukraine denies North Korean missile components came from state-owned factory|first=A. B. C.|last=News|date=14 August 2017|website=ABC News|accessdate=18 August 2017}}
17. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/14/north-korean-missiles-probably-engines-sourced-from-russia-or-ukraine-icbm|title=North Korea attack on Guam could 'quickly escalate into war' – James Mattis|first=Julian|last=Borger|date=15 August 2017|publisher=|accessdate=18 August 2017|via=The Guardian}}
18. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.yuzhnoye.com/en/press-center/news/news-copy_225.html|title=DENIAL OF THE ARTICLE "THE SECRET OF THE NORTH KOREA’S ICBM SUCCESS" BY THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES AND THE ARTICLE "NORTH KOREA’S MISSILE SUCCESS IS LINKED TO UKRAINIAN PLANT, INVESTIGATORS SAY" BY THE NEW YORK TIMES|website=www.yuzhnoye.com|accessdate=18 August 2017}}
19. ^¹{{cite web|url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/08/16/business/tech/kiev-space-chief-engines-used-north-korea-rockets-made-russia-china-also-fuel-tech/|title=Kiev space chief: Engines used in North Korea rockets made for Russia but China also had fuel tech|date=16 August 2017|publisher=|accessdate=18 August 2017|via=Japan Times Online}}
20. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/08/16/Ukraines-space-agency-North-Korea-engine-identical-to-ours/7411502884931/|title=Ukraine's space agency: North Korea engine identical to ours|publisher=|accessdate=18 August 2017}}
21. ^{{cite web|url=http://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/353827-european-banks-are-key-to-north-koreas-advance-in-missile|title=European banks are key to North Korea's advance in missile technology|first=Rudy|last=Takala|date=4 October 2017|publisher=}}
22. ^https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/North-Korea-crisis/Could-Iran-be-behind-North-Korea-s-nuclear-missile-advances
23. ^{{Cite web |title=North Korea announces successful ICBM test |date=5 July 2017 |website=NK News.org |url=https://www.nknews.org/2017/07/north-korea-announces-successful-icbm-test/}}
24. ^{{cite web|title=North Korea’s Hwasong-14 Missile Launch Site Identified: The Panghyon Aircraft Factory|url=http://www.38north.org/2017/07/panghyon070617/|website=38 North|publisher=Johns Hopkins|accessdate=July 7, 2017}}
25. ^{{Cite web |title=North Korea announces successful ICBM test |date=28 July 2017 |website=NK News.org |url=https://www.nknews.org/2017/07/north-korea-announces-second-test-of-hwasong-14-icbm/}}
26. ^¹{{cite web|url=http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/19/politics/north-korea-possible-missile-test/index.html|title=US intelligence shows North Korean preparations for a possible missile test|date=20 July 2017|publisher=}}
27. ^¹{{cite web |title=What is True and Not True About North Korea’s Hwasong-14 ICBM: A Technical Evaluation |date=July 10, 2017 |publisher=38 North |quote=As was noted at the time, the Hwasong-14 was launched on a very high angle “lofted” trajectory to avoid overflying Japan, ... |url=http://www.38north.org/2017/07/jschilling071017/}}
28. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1261474/pentagon-spokesman-comments-on-north-korean-missile-launch/|title=Pentagon Spokesman Comments on North Korean Missile Launch|date=28 July 2017|publisher=Department of Defense}}
29. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.inverse.com/article/34804-north-korea-missile-test-night-launch|title=Why North Korea's Night Missile Launch Was So Unusual|date=28 July 2017|publisher=}}
30. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.38north.org/2017/08/jschilling080117/|title=What Next for North Korea’s ICBM? - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea|author=|date=1 August 2017|website=38north.org|accessdate=12 August 2017}}
31. ^¹²³{{Cite web |title=North Korea Finally Tests an ICBM |author=John Schilling |website=38 North |date=5 July 2017 |url=http://www.38north.org/2017/07/jschilling070517/}}