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词条 List of estimated death tolls from nuclear attacks on cities
释义

  1. Method

  2. Estimated death tolls from nuclear attacks on cities

      Notes  

  3. See also

  4. References

  5. External links

{{nuclear weapons}}

This is a list of estimated numbers of casualties should a nuclear weapon be detonated in a certain city or other population center.

Method

The effects of any nuclear explosion is dependent of a very large number of factors, including but not limited to type of nuclear device, delivery method, explosion type (whether air burst or surface burst), the target's structural anatomy, and atmospheric conditions. To estimate the number of casualties in addition to this poses an even greater challenge.

A nuclear explosion may not hit a city directly. If distinguished, this list uses the estimate with the shortest distance.

Any nuclear attack will have consequences far beyond the area directly affected by the explosion, and the people killed in the nuclear fireball and its immediate radiation. Aside from the political, military and tactical considerations of nuclear attacks on civilians, additional effects include the subsequent nuclear fallout which spreads radioactive particles across large distances, the potential of nuclear winter and other nuclear-related climate change, and the long-term effects of radioactive exposure on human health, such as radiation-induced cancer. If distinguished, this list takes into account immediate deaths and short-term deaths, and not long-term health complications.

This list only includes estimates made from hypothetical nuclear scenarios and does not include death tolls from actual nuclear attacks. Nuclear weapons have only been used in combat twice throughout history, during the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II, which killed approximately 120,000 (±30,000) and 60,000 (±20,000) people, respectively.[1]

Estimates of deaths after nuclear attacks were of especially high interest during the Cold War.{{says who|date=November 2017}}

Estimated death tolls from nuclear attacks on cities

{{dynamic list}}
World targets in megadeaths
City CountryPopulation
(millions){{refn|group=Note|Here described is the population which was used during the death toll estimate, and may differ significantly from the current population. It may be completely wrong even for the relevant time period. If no population figure is given, the historical population count is acquired from another source.		Estimated {{H:title|million deaths|megadeaths|link=yes
from nuclear explosion		Percent deathsDate of estimationNuclear device
used in estimate
(yield in TNT equivalent)		Source(s)
DetroitUnited States}} 1.320.22 {{#expr: (.22/1.32)*100 round 1}} % 1979megatons of TNT equivalent|Mt}} weapon [2]
Washington, D.C.United States}} 1.30.3 {{#expr: (0.3/1.3)*100 round 1}} % 2011kilotons of TNT equivalent|kt}} weapon [3]
SydneyAustralia}} 4.11.75 {{#expr: (1.75/4.1)*100 round 1}} % 2005megatons of TNT equivalent|Mt}}) [4]
Tel AvivIsrael}} 1.40.22 {{#expr: (229330/1372440)*100 round 1}} % 2013kilotons of TNT equivalent|kt}} each [5]
KarajIran}} 1.10.89 {{#expr: (891190/1125360)*100 round 1}} % 2013kilotons of TNT equivalent|kt}} weapon [5]
TehranIran}} 8.27.0 {{#expr: (7/8.245)*100 round 1}} % 2013kilotons of TNT equivalent|kt}} each [5]
TokyoJapan}} 37.93.2 {{#expr: (3.172292/37.9)*100 round 1}} % 2017kilotons of TNT equivalent|kt}} weapon [6]
SeoulSouth Korea}} 24.13.5 {{#expr: (3.561206/24.1)*100 round 1}} % 2017kilotons of TNT equivalent|kt}} weapon [6]
AtlantaUnited States}} 0.490.43 {{#expr: (.428/.496973)*100 round 1}} % 1970 8 unspecified warheads [7]
BostonUnited States}} 0.640.60 {{#expr: (.609/.641071)*100 round 1}} % 1970 4 unspecified warheads [7]
ChicagoUnited States}} 3.40.43 {{#expr: (.425/3.367)*100 round 1}} % 1970 4 unspecified warheads [7]
New York CityUnited States}} 7.93.2 {{#expr: (3.193/7.895)*100 round 1}} % 1970 8 unspecified warheads [7]
PittsburghUnited States}} 0.520.38 {{#expr: (.375/.520117)*100 round 1}} % 1970 4 unspecified warheads [7]
San Francisco Bay AreaUnited States}} 1.30.7 {{#expr: (.739/1.252)*100 round 1}} % 1970 8 unspecified warheads [7]
SeattleUnited States}} 0.50.34 {{#expr: (.341/.530831)*100 round 1}} % 1970 4 unspecified warheads [7]
Washington, D.C.United States}} 0.760.73 {{#expr: (.728/.756510)*100 round 1}} % 1970 8 unspecified warheads [7]

Notes

1. ^Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
2. ^{{cite book|author=Office of Technology Assessment|title=The Effects of Nuclear War|year=1979|publisher=Office of Technology Assessment|lccn=79-600080}}
3. ^{{Cite book|title=Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism|last1=Buddemeier|first1=B. R.|last2=Valentine|first2=J. E.|last3=Millage|first3=K. K.|last4=Brandt|first4=L. D.|year=2011|publisher=Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory|id=LLNL-TR-512111|url=https://www.scribd.com/embeds/85361631/content}}
4. ^{{cite news|last=Dibb|first=Paul|date=September 10, 2005|title=America has always kept us in the loop|work=The Australian}}
5. ^1 2 {{cite journal|last1=Dallas|first1=Cham E.|last2=Bell|first2=William C.|last3=Stewart|first3=David J.|last4=Caruso|first4=Antonio|last5=Burkle, Jr.|first5=Frederick M.|date=May 10, 2013|title=Nuclear war between Israel and Iran: lethality beyond the pale|url=https://conflictandhealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1752-1505-7-10|journal=Conflict and Health|volume=7|issue=10|pages=|doi=10.1186/1752-1505-7-10|access-date=January 4, 2018}}
6. ^1 {{cite news|last1=Zagurek, Jr.|first1=Michael J.|date=October 3, 2017|title=A Hypothetical Nuclear Attack on Seoul and Tokyo: The Human Cost of War on the Korean Peninsula|url=http://www.38north.org/2017/10/mzagurek100417/|location=38 North|access-date=January 4, 2018}}
7. ^1 2 3 4 5 6 7 https://www.dropbox.com/s/fk8gvq14ctp3gjv/nejm199804303381824_t1.jpeg?dl=0

See also

  • World War III
  • Mutually assured destruction
  • Nuclear holocaust
  • List of states with nuclear weapons
  • List of nuclear and radiation accidents by death toll
  • Civilian casualties of strategic bombing
  • On Thermonuclear War
  • Dr. Strangelove

References

{{reflist}}

External links

  • [https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ NUKEMAP], a (non-scientific) interactive simulator for nuclear explosions and the effects and casualties thereof.
{{DEFAULTSORT:Nuclear attacks on cities}}{{Nuclear-weapon-stub}}{{Mil-hist-stub}}

3 : Lists by death toll|Nuclear warfare|War-related deaths
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