| 词条 | Michael Lewis-Beck |
| 释义 |
| name = Michael S. Lewis-Beck | image = | image_size = | image_upright = | alt = | caption = | birth_name = Michael Steven Lewis | birth_date = {{birth date and age|1943|10|29}} | birth_place = | death_date = | death_place = | nationality = American | fields = Political science | workplaces = University of Iowa | alma_mater = Ball State University University of Michigan | thesis_title = Organizational innovation in a third world nation: hospitals in Peru | thesis_url = https://www.researchgate.net/publication/36009095_Organizational_innovation_in_a_third_world_nation_hospitals_in_Peru | thesis_year = 1973 | doctoral_advisor = Lawrence Mohr | doctoral_students = | known_for = Comparative politics Political forecasting Political methodology | awards = }}Michael Steven Lewis-Beck (born October 29, 1943)[1] is an American political scientist and the F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa. His research focuses on comparative politics, political forecasting, and political methodology. He was formerly the editor-in-chief of the American Journal of Political Science from 1993 to 1994.[2][3] He has received media attention for his predictions of the results of United States presidential elections based on economic factors.[4][5][6] He predicted that George H. W. Bush would win the 1992 presidential election, that Bill Clinton would win in 1996, and that Al Gore would win easily in 2000, telling the Washington Post that May that "It's not even going to be close."[7][8] After Gore lost the 2000 election, Lewis-Beck modified his model to take job growth during the incumbent president's previous four-year term into account. He predicted in August 2004 that George W. Bush would receive 51% of the vote in that November's election, making it too close to call.[5] References1. ^{{cite web |title=Lewis-Beck, Michael S. |url=http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n81040100.html |website=Library of Congress Name Authority File |accessdate=19 February 2019}} 2. ^{{cite web |title=Lewis-Beck, Michael |url=https://us.sagepub.com/hi/nam/author/michael-s-lewis-beck |website=SAGE Publications Inc |accessdate=19 February 2019 |language=hi |date=15 February 2019}} 3. ^{{cite web |title=Past Editors |url=https://ajps.org/about/past-editors/ |website=American Journal of Political Science |accessdate=19 February 2019 |language=en |date=21 May 2018}} 4. ^{{cite news |last1=Rosenbaum |first1=David E. |title=POLITICS: THE ECONOMY; Can the President Capitalize On the Economy's Strength? |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1996/04/01/us/politics-the-economy-can-the-president-capitalize-on-the-economy-s-strength.html |accessdate=19 February 2019 |work=The New York Times |date=1 April 1996}} 5. ^1 {{cite news |title=Economic models predict Bush win - Aug. 23, 2004 |url=https://money.cnn.com/2004/08/23/news/election_models/index.htm |accessdate=19 February 2019 |work=CNN |date=23 August 2004}} 6. ^{{cite news |last1=Gerstenzang |first1=James |title=The president's economic challenge |url=http://articles.latimes.com/2007/nov/23/nation/na-bushecon23 |accessdate=19 February 2019 |work=Los Angeles Times |date=23 November 2007}} 7. ^{{cite news |last1=Eisenhower |first1=Karl |title=The Phony Science of Predicting Elections |url=https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2000/05/the-phony-science-of-predicting-elections.html |accessdate=19 February 2019 |work=Slate Magazine |date=31 May 2000 |language=en}} 8. ^{{cite news |last1=Kettle |first1=Martin |title=It's President Gore, agree statisticians |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/sep/01/uselections2000.usa1 |accessdate=19 February 2019 |work=The Guardian |date=1 September 2000}} External links
7 : Living people|1943 births|American political scientists|Ball State University alumni|University of Michigan alumni|University of Iowa faculty|Political science journal editors |
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