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词条 National opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election
释义

  1. Graphical aggregate of national voting intention polling

  2. Federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state

  3. National polling

     Voting intention  Preferred prime minister and satisfaction 

  4. Individual seat polling

  5. Notes

  6. References

{{Use Australian English|date=July 2016}}{{Use dmy dates|date=July 2016}}{{2016 Australian federal election sidebar}}{{main article|2016 Australian federal election}}{{see also|Pre-election pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election}}

Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives (lower house) and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.

Every federal election after 1961 has been won by the grouping that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales. Unusually, in the upcoming election nearly half of all marginal government seats are in NSW; of these, nearly half are in Western Sydney and half are in rural and regional areas. No more than a few government seats in each other state are marginal.

Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require at least 50.5 percent of the two-party vote (a 4.0-point two-party swing or greater), while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require 50.2 percent of the two-party vote (a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater).[1]

Graphical aggregate of national voting intention polling

{{multiple images|align=left
|image1=Australian election polling - two party preferred.png
|width1=300
|caption1=Two-party-preferred vote.
|image2=Australian election polling - primary vote.png
|width2=300
|caption2=Primary vote.
|footer=Graphs are a compilation of aggregate data from voting intention in the below list of all opinion polling for the 2016 federal election. A moving average is shown in a solid line.}}{{Clear}}

Federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state

The table below published by The Poll Bludger sets out the final release of federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state/territory (and swings since the previous election).

Two-party-preferred % polling aggregates by state
State (seats)L/NP 2PPALP 2PPL/NP swing
New South Wales (47)51.348.7–3.1
Victoria (37)47.652.4–2.2
Queensland (30)52.747.3–4.3
Western Australia (16)54.245.8–4.1
South Australia (11)53.846.2+1.4
Tasmania (5)47.352.7–1.4
ACT & NT (4)40.459.6–2.7
Australia (150)50.949.1–2.6

Source: [https://crikey-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/blogs.dir/6/files/2016/07/bludgertrack-2016-07-01.png BludgerTrack 1 Jul 2016: Poll Bludger] – Methodology – State 2PP history{{Clear}}

National polling

Voting intention

Date FirmPrimary vote2PP vote Sample size Margin of error Method
L/NPALPGRNOTHL/NPALP
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016Newspoll[2]42%35%10%13%50.5%49.5%4,135?Landline
30 Jun 2016ReachTEL[3]42.8%34.6%10.7%12%51%49%2,084?Telephone (random)
27–30 Jun 2016Essential[4]42.5%34.5%11.5%12%50.5%49.5%1,212±3Online (members)
28–29 Jun 2016Galaxy[5]43%36%10%11%51%49%1,768?Landline
26–29 Jun 2016Ipsos[6]40%33%13%14%50%50% 1,377 ? Telephone (random)
23–26 Jun 2016Essential[7]39%37%10%14%49%51% 1,773 ±3 Online (members)
23–26 Jun 2016Newspoll[8]43%36%9%12%51%49%1,713±3Landline
23 Jun 2016ReachTEL[9]42.3%33.7%10.5%13.3%51%49%2,349?Telephone (random)
20–22 Jun 2016Galaxy[10][11]42%35%11%12%50%50%??Landline
16–19 Jun 2016Essential[12] 40% 37% 10% 13% 49%51% 1,013 ±3 Online (members)
16–19 Jun 2016Newspoll[13] 41% 36% 10% 13% 50% 50% 1,805 ±3 Landline
16 Jun 2016ReachTEL[14] 43.5% 33.6% 9.1% 13.7%51% 49% 2,576 ? Telephone (random)
14–16 Jun 2016Ipsos[15] 39% 33% 14% 14% 49%51% 1,437 ? Telephone (random)
9–12 Jun 2016Essential[16] 41% 37% 10% 12% 49%51% 1,784 ±3 Online (members)
9 Jun 2016ReachTEL[17] 42.7% 33.2% 9.9% 14.3% 50% 50% 2,175 ? Telephone (random)
2–5 Jun 2016Essential[18] 41% 36% 10% 13% 50% 50% 1,772 ±3 Online (members)
2–5 Jun 2016Newspoll[19] 40% 35% 10% 15% 50% 50% 1,867 ±3 Landline
2 Jun 2016ReachTEL[20] 41.5% 34.9% 10.1% 13.5% 50% 50% 2,414 ? Telephone (random)
31 May – 2 Jun 2016Ipsos[21] 42% 36% 13% 9% 49%51% 1,359 ±2.7 Telephone (random)
26–29 May 2016Essential[22] 41% 35% 9% 15%51% 49% 1,767 ±3 Online (members)
21–22, 28–29 May 2016Morgan[23] 37.5% 32.5% 13% 17% 49%51% 3,099 ±1 In person and SMS
26 May 2016ReachTEL[24] 41.1% 36.5% 9.6% 12.8% 48%52% 2,700 ? Telephone (random)
19–22 May 2016Essential[25] 41% 37% 9% 13% 49%51% 1,794 ±3 Online (members)
19–22 May 2016Newspoll[26] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49%51% ? ±3 Landline
19 May 2016ReachTEL[27] 42.6% 36.6% 9.9% 10.9% 50% 50% 2,407 ? Telephone (random)
17–19 May 2016Ipsos[28] 43% 34% 14% 9%51% 49% 1,497 ±2.5 Telephone (random)
14–15 May 2016Morgan[29] 36.5% 33% 15.5% 15% 47.5%52.5% 2,318 ±1 In person and SMS
12–15 May 2016Essential[30] 42% 38% 9% 11% 49%51% 1,784 ±3 Online (members)
6–8 May 2016Lonergan[31] 42% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50% 1,841 ? Landline and mobile
5–8 May 2016Essential[32] 42% 38% 10% 10% 49%51% 1,754 ±3 Online (members)
9 May 20162016 Federal Election begins
5–8 May 2016Newspoll[33] 41% 37% 11% 11% 49%51% ? ±3 Landline
5–7 May 2016Ipsos[33] 44% 33% 14% 9%51% 49% 1,410 ±2.6 Telephone (random)
4–6 May 2016Galaxy[34] 42% 36% 11% 11% 50% 50% 1,739 ±2.5 ?
5 May 2016ReachTEL[35] 43.2% 35.1% 9.5% 12.2% 50% 50% 2,450 ? Telephone (random)
27 Apr – 1 May 2016Essential[36] 40% 38% 10% 12% 48%52% 1,753 ±3 Online (members)
23–24, 30 Apr – 1 May 2016Morgan[37] 40% 32.5% 13.5% 14% 49%51% 2,951 ±1 In person and SMS
20–24 Apr 2016Essential[38] 40% 39% 10% 11% 48%52% 1,740 ±3 Online (members)
14–17 Apr 2016Newspoll[39] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49%51% ? ±3 Landline
13–17 Apr 2016Essential[40] 42% 36% 11% 11% 50% 50% 1,753 ±3 Online (members)
9–10, 16–17 Apr 2016Morgan[41] 40.5% 32% 14% 13.5% 50% 50% 3,083 ±1 In person and SMS
14–16 Apr 2016Ipsos[42] 42% 33% 14% 11% 50% 50% 1,402 ±2.6 Telephone (random)
14 Apr 2016ReachTEL[43] 43.5% 35.8% 9.8% 10.9% 50% 50% 2,415 ? Telephone (random)
6–10 Apr 2016Essential[44] 42% 35% 11% 12% 50% 50% 1,792 ±3 Online (members)
31 Mar – 3 Apr 2016Newspoll[45] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49%51% ? ±3 Landline
26–27 Mar, 2–3 Apr 2016Morgan[46] 42% 31% 13% 14%52.5% 47.5% 3,174 ±1 In person and SMS
21 Mar 2016ReachTEL[47] 46.6% 34.4% 10.5% 8.6%52% 48% 3,274 ? Telephone (random)
17–20 Mar 2016Newspoll[48] 43% 34% 12% 11%51% 49% ? ±3% Landline
16–20 Mar 2016Essential[49] 43% 38% 10% 9% 50% 50% 1,790 ±3 Online (members)
12–13, 19–20 Mar 2016Morgan[50] 40% 33% 14% 13% 49.5%50.5% 2,948 ±1 In person and SMS
10–12 Mar 2016Ipsos[51] 45% 31% 14% 10%53% 47%
3–6 Mar 2016Newspoll[52] 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
2–6 Mar 2016Essential[53] 43% 37% 10% 10% 50% 50%
27–28 Feb, 5–6 Mar 2016Morgan[54] 43% 29.5% 13% 14.5%53% 47%
24–28 Feb 2016Essential[55] 43% 38% 10% 9% 50% 50%
18–21 Feb 2016Newspoll[56] 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
17–21 Feb 2016Essential[57] 44% 35% 10% 11%52% 48%
13–14, 20–21 Feb 2016Morgan[58] 43.5% 29.5% 15% 12%52.5% 47.5%
11–13 Feb 2016Ipsos[59] 44% 32% 15% 10%52% 48%
11 Feb 2016ReachTEL[60] 48.1% 32.8% 10.1% 9%54% 46%
3–7 Feb 2016Essential[61] 44% 35% 10% 10%52% 48%
30–31 Jan, 6–7 Feb 2016Morgan[62] 43.5% 29% 16% 11.5%52.5% 47.5%
28–31 Jan 2016Newspoll[63] 46% 34% 11% 9%53% 47%
16–17, 23–24 Jan 2016Morgan[64] 43.5% 28% 15% 13.5%55% 45%
21 Jan 2016ReachTEL[65] 48.5% 31.8% 10.8% 9.1%55% 45%
15–18 Jan 2016Essential[66] 44% 35% 10% 12%51% 49%
2–3, 9–10 Jan 2016Morgan[67] 47% 29% 13% 11%56% 44%
15 Dec 2015Essential[68] 45% 35% 10% 10%52% 48%
5–6, 12–13 Dec 2015Morgan[69] 48% 27% 14.5% 10.5%57.5% 42.5%
8 Dec 2015Essential[70] 44% 36% 11% 10%51% 49%
4–6 Dec 2015Newspoll[71] 45% 33% 12% 10%53% 47%
1 Dec 2015Essential[72] 44% 35% 11% 10%51% 49%
21–22, 28–29 Nov 2015Morgan[73] 46.5% 28.5% 14% 11%56% 44%
26 Nov 2015ReachTEL[74] 48.8% 31.1% 11.2% 8.9%55% 45%
24 Nov 2015Essential[75] 45% 35% 10% 10%52% 48%
19–22 Nov 2015Newspoll[76] 46% 33% 11% 10%53% 47%
7–8, 14–15 Nov 2015Morgan[77] 46% 28% 14.5% 11.5%56% 44%
12–14 Nov 2015Ipsos[78]{{refn|group=note|name=prefs|Ipsos asked respondents to nominate their own second preferences. Based only on 2013 preference flows, TPP is LNP 56% to ALP 44%.}} 48% 29% 13% 10%57% 43%
10 Nov 2015Essential[79] 45% 35% 10% 11%52% 48%
6–8 Nov 2015Newspoll[80] 46% 34% 10% 10%53% 47%
3 Nov 2015Essential 45% 34% 11% 10%53% 47%
24–25 Oct, 1 Nov 2015Morgan[81] 47% 28.5% 14.5% 10%56.5% 43.5%
27 Oct 2015Essential[82] 45% 35% 11% 9%52% 48%
23–25 Oct 2015Newspoll[83] 45% 35% 11% 9%52% 48%
22 Oct 2015ReachTEL[84] 46.7% 33.0% 11.3% 9.1%53% 47%
20 Oct 2015Essential[85] 44% 36% 11% 9%51% 49%
10–11, 17–18 Oct 2015Morgan[86] 46.5% 27.5% 15.5% 10.5%56% 44%
15–17 Oct 2015Ipsos[87] 45% 30% 14% 10%54% 46%
13 Oct 2015Essential[88] 44% 36% 10% 10%51% 49%
9–11 Oct 2015Newspoll[89] 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
26–27 Sep, 1–5 Oct 2015Morgan[90] 47% 27.5% 14% 11.5%56% 44%
1–4 Oct 2015Essential[91] 44% 35% 10% 10%52% 48%
24–28 Sep 2015Essential 44% 35% 11% 11%52% 48%
17–21 Sep 2015Essential[92] 43% 37% 11% 9% 50% 50%
19–20 Sep 2015Morgan[93] 46% 29.5% 13% 11.5%55% 45%
17–20 Sep 2015Newspoll[94] 44% 35% 11% 10%51% 49%
15–16 Sep 2015Galaxy[95] 44% 36% 11% 2%51% 49%
15 Sep 2015ReachTEL[96]{{refn|group=note|name=Turnbull|Malcolm Turnbull succeeded Tony Abbott as Liberal Party leader on 14 September 2015. Poll was conducted to gauge the public's response.}} 43.3% 35.9% 11.9% 8.9% 50% 50%
14 Sep 2015Turnbull replaces Abbott as Liberal leader
12–13 Sep 2015Morgan[97] 35% 36.5% 16% 12.5% 43%57%
5–6 Sep 2015Morgan[98] 36.5% 35.5% 16.5% 11.5% 45%55%
4–6 Sep 2015Newspoll[99] 39% 39% 12% 10% 46%54%
26–30 Aug 2015Essential[100] 40% 38% 11% 12% 48%52%
27 Aug 2015ReachTEL[101] 40.3% 37.5% 13.4% 8.9% 47%53%
22–23 Aug 2015Morgan[102] 38.5% 36% 14% 11.5% 45.5%54.5%
20–23 Aug 2015Newspoll[103] 38% 39% 13% 10% 46%54%
13–15 Aug 2015Ipsos[104] 38% 36% 16% 11% 44%56%
11–14 Aug 2015Essential 41% 38% 10% 11% 48%52%
8–9 Aug 2015Morgan[105] 36.5% 37% 15.5% 11% 43%57%
8–9 Aug 2015Newspoll[106] 39% 39% 13% 9% 46%54%
4–7 Aug 2015Essential 40% 39% 11% 9% 47%53%
6 Aug 2015ReachTel[107] 40.2% 38.3% 12.8% 8.7% 47%53%
28–31 Jul 2015Essential[108] 39% 38% 12% 10% 47%53%
30 Jul 2015ReachTel[109] 40.6% 38% 12.9% 8.6% 47%53%
25–26 Jul 2015Morgan[110] 39% 35.5% 15% 10.5% 46%54%
16–19 Jul 2015Newspoll[111] 40% 39% 12% 9% 47%53%
14–17 Jul 2015Essential 41% 38% 11% 11% 48%52%
11–12 Jul 2015Morgan[112] 41.5% 34.5% 13.5% 10.5% 49%51%
4–5 Jul 2015Newspoll[113] 40% 37% 13% 10% 48%52%
2–4 Jul 2015Ipsos[114] 39% 35% 16% 10% 47%53%
27–28 Jun 2015Morgan[115] 39% 36% 14% 11% 46.5%53.5%
16 Jun 2015Newspoll[116] 40% 34% 14% 12% 49%51%
16 Jun 2015Essential 42% 39% 10% 9% 48%52%
13–14 Jun 2015Morgan[117] 37.5% 37.5% 13.5% 11.5% 45.5%54.5%
11–13 Jun 2015Ipsos[118] 40% 37% 14% 10% 47%53%
11–13 Jun 2015Essential 41% 40% 9% 10% 48%52%
2 Jun 2015Newspoll[119] 41% 37% 13% 9% 48%52%
2 Jun 2015Essential[120] 41% 37% 13% 9% 48%52%
23–24, 30–31 May 2015Morgan[121] 41% 37% 13% 9% 47%53%
26 May 2015Essential[120] 41% 39% 10% 9% 48%52%
18 May 2015Morgan[122] 41.5% 35.5% 12.5% 10.5% 49%51%
17 May 2015Ipsos[123] 43% 35% 13% 9% 50% 50%
17 May 2015Newspoll[124] 40% 37% 12% 11% 47%53%
13 May 2015ReachTel[125] 41.1% 38.3% 12.1% 8.6% 47%53%
7–10 May 2015Essential[126] 41% 39% 11% 10% 48%52%
6 May 2015Di Natale replaces Milne as Greens leader
4 May 2015Newspoll[127] 39% 35% 12% 14% 48%52%
4 May 2015Morgan[128] 40% 37.5% 11.5% 11% 46.5%53.5%
28 Apr 2015Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47%53%
21 Apr 2015Essential 41% 39% 11% 10% 48%52%
11–12, 18–19 Apr 2015Morgan[129] 38.5% 38% 12% 11% 47%53%
14 Apr 2015Essential 41% 39% 10% 11% 48%52%
10–12 Apr 2015Newspoll[130] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49%51%
9–11 Apr 2015Ipsos[131] 39% 38% 13% 9% 46%54%
28–29 Mar, 3–6 Apr 2015Morgan[132] 40.5% 36% 12.5% 11% 47%53%
29 Mar 2015ReachTEL[133] 39.6% 40.5% 11.5% 8.5% 46%54%
20–22 Mar 2015Newspoll[134] 41% 37% 11% 11% 49%51%
14–15, 21–22 Mar 2015Morgan[135] 38% 40% 11% 11% 44%56%
17 Mar 2015Essential 40% 39% 9% 11% 48%52%
10 Mar 2015Essential[136] 40% 40% 9% 11% 47%53%
7–8 Mar 2015Newspoll[137] 38% 39% 12% 11% 45%55%
28 Feb–1, 7–8 Mar 2015Morgan[138] 39% 38% 12.5% 11.5% 46.5%53.5%
26–28 Feb 2015Ipsos 42% 36% 12% 10% 49%51%
20–22 Feb 2015Essential 40% 41% 9% 10% 47%53%
20–22 Feb 2015Newspoll 38% 38% 12% 12% 47%53%
6–8 Feb 2015Newspoll 35% 41% 12% 12% 43%57%
31 Jan–1, 7–8 Feb 2015Morgan 35% 41% 12% 12% 42.5%57.5%
5 Feb 2015ReachTEL 38.4% 41.4% 11.2% 8.9% 45%55%
4–5 Feb 2015Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43%57%
28–30 Jan 2015Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43%57%
27 Jan 2015ReachTEL 39.7% 40.2% 11.3% 8.8% 46%54%
r27 Jan 2015Essential 39% 41% 9% 11% 46%54%
20 Jan 2015Essential 40% 40% 10% 11% 47%53%
13 Jan 2015Essential 38% 40% 10% 11% 46%54%
12 Jan 2015Morgan 38.5% 38.5% 9.5% 13.5% 45.5%54.5%
23–27 Dec 2014Morgan 37.5% 39.5% 12% 11% 43.5%56.5%
16 Dec 2014Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48%52%
12–15 Dec 2014Newspoll 38% 39% 12% 11% 46%54%
6–7, 13–14 Dec 2014Morgan 35% 41% 11.5% 12.5% 42.5%57.5%
4–6 Dec 2014Ipsos 40% 37% 12% 11% 48%52%
2–4 Dec 2014Galaxy 38% 41% 11% 10% 45%55%
2 Dec 2014Essential 40% 40% 9% 11% 47%53%
29–30 Nov 2014Newspoll 37% 37% 13% 13% 46%54%
22–23, 29–30 Nov 2014Morgan 37% 37.5% 12% 11.5% 46.5%53.5%
25 Nov 2014Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48%52%
21 Nov 2014ReachTEL 40.2% 38.7% 11.1% 9.9% 47%53%
18 Nov 2014Newspoll 36% 39% 11% 14% 45%55%
17 Nov 2014Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48%52%
17 Nov 2014Morgan 38% 38.5% 12% 11.5% 44.5%55.5%
11 Nov 2014Essential 40% 38% 10% 13% 48%52%
4 Nov 2014Newspoll 38% 36% 13% 13% 46%54%
4 Nov 2014Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48%52%
25–26 Oct, 1–2 Nov 2014Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12.5% 11.5% 45.5%54.5%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014Ipsos 42% 37% 12% 10% 49%51%
28 Oct 2014Essential 39% 39% 9% 12% 47%53%
23 Oct 2014ReachTEL 40.1% 37.5% 11.5% 10.9% 48%52%
21 Oct 2014Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47%53%
21 Oct 2014Newspoll 38% 34% 14% 14% 47%53%
20 Oct 2014Morgan 39.5% 35.5% 12% 13% 48%52%
14 Oct 2014Essential 41% 39% 10% 10% 48%52%
7 Oct 2014Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48%52%
4–5 Oct 2014Morgan 40% 35% 12% 13% 47%53%
4–5 Oct 2014Galaxy 42% 36% 12% 10% 49%51%
23 Sep 2014Newspoll 41% 34% 11% 14% 49%51%
13–14, 20–21 Sep 2014Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12% 12% 45.5%54.5%
18 Sep 2014ReachTEL 41.6% 37.4% 10.5% 10.5% 49%51%
30–31 Aug, 6–7 Sep 2014Morgan 38% 37% 10.5% 14.5% 46%54%
5–7 Sep 2014Newspoll 39% 35% 14% 12% 48%52%
22–24 Aug 2014Newspoll 40% 34% 11% 15% 49%51%
16–17, 23–24 Aug 2014Morgan 37.5% 38.5% 10.5% 13.5% 44.5%55.5%
19 Aug 2014Essential 40% 38% 9% 13% 48%52%
9–10 Aug 2014Morgan 37.5% 38% 11% 13.5% 44%56%
8–10 Aug 2014Newspoll 40% 34% 13% 13% 48%52%
25–27 Jul 2014Newspoll 36% 36% 12% 16% 46%54%
11–13 Jul 2014Newspoll 36% 37% 11% 16% 46%54%
1 Jul 2014Essential[139] 40% 38% 9% 13% 48%52%
30 Jun 2014Morgan[140] 35% 36.5% 12% 16.5% 42.5%57.5%
27–29 Jun 2014Newspoll 35% 37% 13% 15% 45%55%
13–15 Jun 2014Newspoll 37% 36% 10% 17% 47%53%
30 May–1 Jun 2014Newspoll 36% 37% 12% 15% 46%54%
27 May 2014Essential[141] 40% 39% 9% 12% 48%52%
20 May 2014Essential[142] 40% 40% 8% 12% 48%52%
17–18 May 2014Morgan[143] 35% 38.5% 12% 14.5% 42.5%57.5%
16–18 May 2014Newspoll 36% 38% 11% 15% 45%55%
15–17 May 2014Nielsen[144] 35% 40% 14% 12% 44%56%
4 May 2014Galaxy[145] 39% 37% 11% 13% 48%52%
2–4 May 2014Newspoll[146] 38% 34% 14% 14% 47%53%
30 Apr 2014Essential[141] 40% 38% 10% 11% 48%52%
22 Apr 2014Morgan[147] 38.5% 34% 13% 14.5% 48%52%
15 Apr 2014Essential[148] 42% 37% 10% 11% 50% 50%
13 Apr 2014Nielsen[149] 40% 34% 17% 9% 48%52%
8 Apr 2014Essential[150] 42% 38% 9% 11% 49%51%
7 Apr 2014Morgan[151] 38.5% 34.5% 12% 15% 48.5%51.5%
4–6 Apr 2014Newspoll[152] 43% 34% 11% 12%51% 49%
25 Mar 2014Morgan[153] 38% 38.5% 11% 12.5% 45.5%54.5%
25 Mar 2014Essential[154] 44% 37% 9% 11%51% 49%
21–23 Mar 2014Newspoll[155] 40% 36% 13% 11% 48%52%
18 Mar 2014Essential[156] 43% 36% 9% 12%51% 49%
13–15 Mar 2014Nielsen[157] 44% 35% 12% 10%51% 49%
7–9 Mar 2014Newspoll 41% 35% 11% 13% 49%51%
5 Mar 2014Essential[158] 44% 38% 8% 10%51% 49%
23 Feb 2014Morgan[159] 41% 35.5% 10.5% 13% 49.5%50.5%
21–23 Feb 2014Newspoll[160] 39% 39% 10% 12% 46%54%
15 Feb 2014Nielsen[161] 44% 33% 12% 11%52% 48%
7–9 Feb 2014Newspoll[162] 41% 35% 12% 12% 49%51%
28 Jan 2014Morgan[163] 39.5% 37% 11.5% 12% 47%53%
23 Jan 2014ReachTEL 39.8% 40.6% 9.1% 9.1% 47%53%
17–20 Jan 2014Essential[164] 43% 37% 9% 11%51% 49%
13 Jan 2014Morgan[165] 38% 39% 10.5% 12.5% 47.5%52.5%
16 Dec 2013Morgan[166] 40.5% 38.5% 10% 11% 47.5%52.5%
15 Dec 2013ReachTEL 41.4% 40.4% 8.7% 9.5% 48%52%
6–8 Dec 2013Newspoll 40% 38% 11% 11% 48%52%
28 Nov–2 Dec 2013Essential[167] 44% 36% 8% 11%52% 48%
30 Nov–1 Dec 2013Morgan (multi)[168] 41.5% 38.5% 8.5% 12.5% 48.5%51.5%
22–24 Nov 2013Newspoll 43% 35% 10% 12%52% 48%
21–23 Nov 2013Nielsen[169] 41% 37% 11% 11% 48%52%
8–10 Nov 2013Newspoll 45% 32% 12% 11%53% 47%
25–27 Oct 2013Newspoll 47% 31% 10% 12%56% 44%
19–20 Oct 2013Morgan[170] 43.5% 34.5% 10% 12%51.5% 48.5%
13 Oct 2013Shorten replaces Rudd as Labor leader
21–22 Sep 2013Morgan[171] 43.5% 34% 10.5% 12%50.5% 49.5%
19–22 Sep 2013Essential[172] 43% 37% 9% 11%51% 49%
12–15 Sep 2013Essential[172] 44% 36% 9% 11%53% 47%
7 Sep 20132013 election45.6%33.4%8.7%12.3%53.5%46.5%
4–6 Sep 2013Morgan (multi) 45% 31.5% 9.5% 14%54.5% 44.5%
5 Sep 2013ReachTEL[173] 43.5% 33.7% 10.2% 12.6%53% 47%
3–5 Sep 2013Newspoll 46% 33% 9% 12%54% 46%

Preferred prime minister and satisfaction

Date FirmPreferred prime minister Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
Turnbull ShortenTurnbullShorten
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016Newspoll[2]48% 31%40%47%36%51%
30 Jun 2016ReachTEL[3]52.9% 47.1%
26–29 Jun 2016Ipsos[6]49% 35%49%41%42%50%
23–26 Jun 2016Essential[7]40% 29%40%40%37%39%
23–26 Jun 2016Newspoll[8]45% 30%37%51%35%50%
23 Jun 2016ReachTEL[9]58.4% 41.6%
16–19 Jun 2016Newspoll[13]46% 31%36%51%35%51%
16 Jun 2016ReachTEL[14]57.6% 42.4%
14–16 Jun 2016Ipsos[15]48% 34%47%42%43%47%
9–12 Jun 2016Essential[16]40% 29%38%40%34%40%
9 Jun 2016ReachTEL[17]55.4% 44.6%
2–5 Jun 2016Newspoll[19]45% 30%37%51%33%52%
2 Jun 2016ReachTEL[20]55.6% 44.4%
31 May – 2 Jun 2016Ipsos[21]49% 31%45%42%41%47%
26–29 May 2016Essential[22]40% 27%41%39%34%44%
26 May 2016ReachTEL[24]54.9% 45.1%
19–22 May 2016Newspoll[26]46% 31%38%50%37%49%
19 May 2016ReachTEL[27]55.6% 44.4%
17–19 May 2016Ipsos[28]47% 30%48%38%40%46%
12–15 May 2016Essential[30]43% 28%40%42%34%43%
5–8 May 2016Newspoll[33]49% 27%38%49%33%52%
5–7 May 2016Ipsos[33]51% 29%48%40%38%49%
5 May 2016ReachTEL[35]57.7% 42.3%
4–5 May 2016Morgan57% 24%43%41%34%49%
14–17 Apr 2016Newspoll[39]47% 28%36%49%31%52%
14–16 Apr 2016Ipsos[42]54% 27%51%38%33%55%
14 Apr 2016ReachTEL[43]58.4% 41.6%
Apr 2016Essential[44]44% 22%39%39%30%44%
31 Mar–3 Apr 2016Newspoll[45]48% 27%38%48%32%53%
Mar 2016Essential[44]48% 19%45%35%27%47%
21 Mar 2016ReachTEL[35]60.0% 40.0%
10–12 Mar 2016Ipsos[51]61% 24%55%32%33%52%
3–6 Mar 2016Newspoll[52]55% 21%44%41%30%55%
Feb 2016Essential[61]52% 15%51%27%27%48%
18–21 Feb 2016Newspoll[56]55% 21%48%38%28%57%
11–13 Feb 2016Ipsos[59]64% 19%62%24%30%55%
11 Feb 2016ReachTEL[60]74.9% 25.1%
Jan 2016Essential[61]51% 18%51%25%27%47%
28–31 Jan 2016Newspoll[63]59% 20%53%31%25%60%
Dec 2015Essential[61]54% 15%56%23%27%47%
4–6 Dec 2015Newspoll[71]60% 14%52%30%23%61%
Nov 2015Essential[174]55% 14%56%20%27%47%
26 Nov 2015ReachTEL[74]71.4% 28.6%
19–22 Nov 2015Newspoll[76]64% 15%60%22%26%57%
12–14 Nov 2015Ipsos[78]69% 18%69%16%29%57%
6–8 Nov 2015Newspoll[80]55% 14%56%20%27%47%
Oct 2015Essential48% 19%47%17%30%42%
23–25 Oct 2015Newspoll[175]63% 17%58%23%26%58%
20–22 Oct 2015Morgan[176]76% 14%66%18%25%62%
15–17 Oct 2015Ipsos[87]67% 21%68%17%32%56%
9–11 Oct 2015Newspoll57% 19%50%25%28%53%
Sep 2015Essential53% 17%N/AN/A29%50%
17–20 Sep 2015Newspoll55% 21%42%24%29%54%
15–16 Sep 2015Galaxy[95]51% 20%
15 Sep 2015ReachTEL[96]61.9% 38.1%
15 Sep 2015Morgan70% 24%
Abbott ShortenAbbottShorten
4–6 Sep 2015Newspoll37%41%30%63%30%58%
27 Aug 2015ReachTEL[101] 42.1%57.9%
20–23 Aug 2015Newspoll[103]35%40%30%63%34%52%
13–15 Aug 2015Ipsos39%45%35%59%39%49%
11 Aug 2015Essential36% 32%38%53%29%52%
9 Aug 2015Newspoll 39% 39%33%61%29%57%
6 Aug 2015ReachTEL 41.5%58.5%
31 Jul 2015ReachTEL 44.9%55.1%
16–19 Jul 2015Newspoll[111]39% 36%33%60%27%59%
7 Jul 2015Essential37% 30%37%53%27%52%
6 Jul 2015Newspoll 39% 39%33%60%28%56%
11–13 Jun 2015Newspoll[116]41% 38%34%56%28%54%
11–13 Jun 2015Ipsos[118] 41%42%
2 Jun 2015Essential38% 33%39%50%32%45%
2 Jun 2015Newspoll[119]41% 37%38%53%32%50%
17 May 2015Ipsos[123]44% 39%42%50%41%45%
17 May 2015Newspoll[124]41% 40%39%52%35%46%
12 Apr 2015Essential35% 32%36%54%32%41%
5 Apr 2015Newspoll[127] 38% 38%37%56%34%50%
27 Apr 2015Morgan44% 39%37%53%34%48%
14 Apr 2015Essential 33%35%33%58%33%42%
10–12 Apr 2015Newspoll[130] 40%41%33%59%33%51%
9–11 Apr 2015Ipsos[131] 38%46%34%60%42%44%
20–22 Mar 2015Newspoll[134] 36%41%29%61%36%47%
7–8 Mar 2015Newspoll[137] 33%44%28%63%39%42%
26–28 Feb 2015Ipsos 39%44%32%62%43%43%
20–22 Feb 2015Newspoll 35%43%25%68%35%49%
6–8 Feb 2015Newspoll 30%48%24%68%42%40%
1 Feb 2015Galaxy 27%44%
28–30 Jan 2015Galaxy 27%44%
14 Jan 2015Morgan 41%43%37%52%37%40%
13 Jan 2015Essential 35%37%37%53%39%33%
28–30 Nov 2014Newspoll 37%44%33%58%37%43%
4–6 Dec 2014Ipsos 39%47%
28–30 Nov 2014Newspoll 36%43%33%57%39%43%
18 Nov 2014Newspoll 37%43%36%55%39%41%
11 Nov 2014Essential36% 34%39%50%37%38%
4 Nov 2014Newspoll39% 38%37%52%37%45%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014Ipsos 41% 41%42%49%43%40%
21 Oct 2014Newspoll39% 38%38%53%35%46%
14 Oct 2014Essential38% 32%40%48%35%36%
23 Sep 2014Newspoll41% 37%41%52%38%43%
5–7 Sep 2014Newspoll 37% 37%35%54%36%43%
22–24 Aug 2014Newspoll 39%40%36%55%40%39%
8–10 Aug 2014Newspoll41% 37%36%54%36%44%
25–27 Jul 2014Newspoll 38% 38%36%53%38%41%
11–13 Jul 2014Newspoll 36%41%31%60%34%43%
27–29 Jun 2014Newspoll 34%44%31%62%34%41%
13–15 Jun 2014Newspoll 37%40%30%61%34%45%
30 May – 1 Jun 2014Newspoll 35%45%33%59%38%43%
16–18 May 2014Newspoll 34%44%30%60%42%39%
15–17 May 2014Nielsen 40%51%34%62%47%39%
2–4 May 2014Newspoll40% 38%35%56%35%41%
13 Apr 2014Nielsen45% 44%43%50%43%41%
8 Apr 2014Essential42% 32%41%47%34%38%
4–6 Apr 2014Newspoll41% 33%40%47%31%42%
21–23 Mar 2014Newspoll43% 36%40%50%36%43%
13–15 Mar 2014Nielsen48% 43%45%49%42%42%
7–9 Mar 2014Newspoll42% 36%38%50%33%43%
21–23 Feb 2014Newspoll[160]38% 37%36%52%35%39%
15 Feb 2014Nielsen[160]49% 39%45%47%40%40%
7–9 Feb 2014Newspoll41% 33%40%45%35%35%
6–8 Dec 2013Newspoll41% 34%40%45%44%27%
22–24 Nov 2013Newspoll44% 33%42%42%39%27%
21–23 Nov 2013Nielsen[169]49% 41%47%46%51%30%
8–10 Nov 2013Newspoll46% 30%45%38%37%24%
25–27 Oct 2013Newspoll47% 28%47%34%32%24%
2013 election––––––
3–5 Sep 2013Newspoll45%44%50%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Individual seat polling

{{main|Electorate opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election}}{{Clear}}

Notes

1. ^Mackerras pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2016 based on 2016 Federal Election Pendulum (Update): Antony Green ABC 13 March 2016 – O'Connor and Durack not included for Labor majority calculation but are included for Coalition loss of majority calculation.
2. ^1 Turnbull clings to narrow lead: The Australian 2 July 2016
3. ^1 [https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-30june16 1 July 2016 ReachTEL]
4. ^1 Jul 2016 Essential
5. ^{{Cite web|url=https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/30/fairfax-ipsos-50-50-3/|title=Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition - The Poll Bludger|date=2016-06-30|language=English|access-date=2016-06-30}}
6. ^1 {{Cite web|url=http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/fairfaxipsos-poll-dead-heat-on-election-eve-20160630-gpvmom.html|title=Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Dead heat on election eve as final poll points to cliffhanger|date=2016-06-30|website=theage.com.au|access-date=2016-06-30}}
7. ^1 28 Jun 2016 Essential
8. ^1 {{cite web|url=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-surge-puts-pm-on-the-cusp-of-victory/news-story/415d3fcbd2d43af718d07e6a84e8cb91 |title=Nocookies |publisher=The Australian |date= |accessdate=2016-06-27}}
9. ^1 [https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-23june16 23 June 2016 ReachTEL]
10. ^{{cite web|url=https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/26/galaxy-50-50-3/ |title=Galaxy: 50-50 - The Poll Bludger |publisher=Blogs.crikey.com.au |date= |accessdate=2016-06-27}}
11. ^{{cite news|url=https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/31916844/liberals-holding-tight-in-nsw-galaxy-poll/|title=Liberals on track to keep key marginals}}
12. ^21 Jun 2016 Essential
13. ^1 {{cite web|url=https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/19/newspoll-50-50-13/|title=Newspoll: 50-50 - The Poll Bludger|date=2016-06-19|website=The Poll Bludger|language=English|access-date=2016-06-19}}
14. ^1 {{cite web|url=https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-16june16 |title=Blog |publisher=ReachTEL |date=2016-06-17 |accessdate=2016-06-27}}
15. ^1 {{cite news|url=http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-labor-within-striking-distance-20160617-gplsgi.html}}
16. ^1 14 Jun 2016 Essential
17. ^1 [https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-9june16 9 Jun 2016 ReachTEL]
18. ^7 Jun 2016 Essential
19. ^1 {{cite web|url=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/election-2016-newspoll-shows-labor-and-coalition-5050/news-story/a6e87b4be140a0cab55bcb7845f2e4bd |title=Nocookies |publisher=The Australian |date= |accessdate=2016-06-15}}
20. ^1 [https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-3june16 2 Jun 2016 ReachTEL]
21. ^1 {{cite news|url=http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-fairfax-ipsos-poll-puts-bill-shorten-ahead-of-malcolm-turnbull-for-first-time-20160603-gpb33x.html|title=Election 2016: Fairfax Ipsos poll puts Bill Shorten ahead of Malcolm Turnbull for first time|author=Mark Kenny|date=3 Jun 2016|publisher=SMH}}
22. ^1 31 May 2016 Essential
23. ^{{cite web|title=Election now too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. Minor Parties ‘won’ last night’s Leaders' debate.|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6831-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-may-30-2016-201605300615|website=Roy Morgan Research|publisher=Roy Morgan|accessdate=30 May 2016}}
24. ^1 [https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-26may2016 26 May 2016 ReachTEL]
25. ^24 May 2016 Essential
26. ^1 23 May 2016 Newspoll
27. ^1 {{cite web|url=https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-19may2016 |title=Blog |publisher=ReachTEL |date=2016-05-20 |accessdate=2016-06-15}}
28. ^1 {{cite news|url=http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/fairfaxipsos-poll-malcolm-turnbulls-approval-slides-as-election-campaign-drags-20160520-goztv0.html|title=Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Malcolm Turnbull's approval slides as election campaign drags|author=Mark Kenny|date=21 May 2016|publisher=SMH}}
29. ^In the first week of the campaign ALP grabs election winning lead: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5% - Roy Morgan Research
30. ^1 [https://crikey-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/blogs.dir/6/files/2016/05/Essential-Report_160517.pdf 17 May 2016 Essential]
31. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/10/malcolm-turnbulls-budget-turns-younger-voters-off-coalition-poll-shows|date=10 May 2016|publisher=The Guardian}}
32. ^10 May 2016 Essential
33. ^1 2 3 {{cite web|url=http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/05/08/newspoll-ipsos-galaxy/|title=It's on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy|last=Bowe|first=William|date=8 May 2016|publisher=Crikey}}
34. ^No Cookies | Daily Telegraph
35. ^1 2 {{cite web|url=https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-5may2016 |title=Blog |publisher=ReachTEL |date=2016-05-06 |accessdate=2016-06-15}}
36. ^[https://crikey-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/blogs.dir/6/files/2016/05/Essential-Report_160503.pdf 3 May 2016 Essential]
37. ^{{cite news|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll|accessdate=3 May 2016|publisher=Roy Morgan Research}}
38. ^27 Apr 2016 Essential
39. ^1 18 Apr 2016 Newspoll
40. ^19 Apr 2016 Essential
41. ^{{cite news|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll|accessdate=18 April 2016|publisher=Roy Morgan Research}}
42. ^1 {{cite news|url=http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/voters-expected-more-poll-20160417-go8b73.html|title=Fairfax-Ipsos poll points to knife-edge election between Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten|author=Mark Kenny|date=17 April 2016|publisher=SMH}}
43. ^1 {{cite web|url=https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-14April2016|title=7 News – National Poll|date=15 April 2016|publisher=ReachTEL}}
44. ^1 2 12 Apr 2016 Essential
45. ^1 4 Apr 2016 Newspoll
46. ^{{cite web|title=L-NP in front again as Turnbull shows leadership|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6746-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-april-4-2016-201604040745|website=Roy Morgan Research|publisher=Roy Morgan|accessdate=5 April 2016}}
47. ^[https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-21march2016 Mar 2016 ReachTEL]
48. ^21 Mar 2016 Newspoll
49. ^{{cite web|title=Essential Report 22 March|url=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Essential-Report_160322.pdf|website=Essential Research|publisher=Essential Research|accessdate=23 March 2016}}
50. ^{{cite web|title=ALP & L-NP now too close to call as electors react to Government forcing Senate voting changes last week as Turnbull today recalls Parliament in April for Double Dissolution Election showdown|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6723-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-march-21-2016-201603210505|website=Roy Morgan Research|publisher=Roy Morgan Research|accessdate=21 March 2016}}
51. ^1 Mar 2016 Ipsos
52. ^1 3–6 Mar 2016 Newspoll
53. ^{{cite web|title=The Essential Report – 8 March 2016|url=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Essential-Report_160308.pdf|website=Essential|publisher=Essential|accessdate=8 March 2016}}
54. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6711-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-march-7-2016-201603070410|title=Federal Voting Intention virtually unchanged: L-NP 53% maintain clear 2PP lead over ALP 47% as Parliament debates Senate reform|date=7 March 2016|publisher=Roy Morgan Research}}
55. ^{{cite web|title=The Essential Report – 1 March 2016|url=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Essential_Report_160301.pdf|website=Essential|publisher=Essential|accessdate=1 March 2016}}
56. ^1 {{cite web|title=NEWSPOLL|url=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll|website=The Australian|publisher=Newspoll Limited|accessdate=21 February 2016}}
57. ^{{cite web|title=The Essential Report – 23 February 2016|url=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/essential_report_160223.pdf|website=Essential|publisher=Essential|accessdate=29 February 2016}}
58. ^{{cite web|title=Federal Voting Intention unchanged: L-NP 52.5% maintain clear 2PP lead over ALP 47.5%|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6691-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-february-22-2016-201602220504|website=Roy Morgan Research|publisher=Roy Morgan|accessdate=22 February 2016}}
59. ^1 {{cite news|url=http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-voters-cool-on-malcolm-turnbull-as-coalition-support-drops-below-2013-election-levels-20160214-gmtnd1.html|title=Fairfax-Ipsos poll: voters cool on Malcolm Turnbull as Coalition support drops below 2013 election levels|last=Kenny|first=Mark|date=15 February 2016|publisher=SMH}}
60. ^1 {{cite web|url=https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-11february2016|title=7 News – National Poll – 11 February 2016|date=11 February 2016}}
61. ^1 2 3 {{cite web|title=The Essential report – 9 February 2016|url=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/essential_report_160209.pdf|website=Essential Research|publisher=Essential Research|accessdate=14 February 2016}}
62. ^{{cite web|title=ALP narrows gap following GST discussions – ALP up 2.5% to 47.5% cf. L-NP down 2.5% to 52.5%|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6665-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-february-9-2016-201602090452|website=Roy Morgan Research|publisher=Roy Morgan Research|accessdate=9 February 2016}}
63. ^1 Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition – The Poll Bludger 31 January 2016
64. ^{{cite web|title = L-NP lead over ALP narrows – now 55% (down 1%) cf. 45% (up 1%). Nick Xenophon outpolls Labor in South Australia – again.|url = http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6649-morgan-poll-federal-voting-january-25-2016-201601250551|website = Roy Morgan|access-date = 2016-01-25}}
65. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-21january2016|title=7 News – National Poll – 21 January 2016|date=21 January 2016}}
66. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/essential_report_160119.pdf|title=Essential Report|date=19 January 2016}}
67. ^{{cite web|title = L-NP lead down over ALP – now 56% (down 1.5%) cf. 44% (up 1.5%) although L-NP would still win Federal Election easily|url = http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6629-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-january-11-2015-201601110431|website = Roy Morgan|accessdate = 2016-01-11}}
68. ^[name=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/essential_report_151215.pdf]
69. ^{{cite web|title=L-NP increases lead over ALP – now 57.5% cf. 42.5%; biggest lead for Coalition since being elected in 2013|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6609-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-december-15-2015-201512150606|website=Roy Morgan Research|publisher=Roy Morgan Research|accessdate=15 December 2015}}
70. ^http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/essential_report_151208.pdf
71. ^1 Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition – The Poll Bludger 7 December 2015
72. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/federal-politics-voting-intention-111|title=Federal politics – voting intention|date=1 December 2015|publisher=Essential Media Communications}}
73. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6579-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-november-30-2015-201511300420|title=Federal Voting Intention unchanged. L-NP (56%) cf. ALP (44%); Confidence in Turnbull Government up again – highest since March 2011|date=30 November 2015|publisher=Roy Morgan Research}}
74. ^1 {{cite web|url=https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-26november2015|date=27 November 2015|publisher=ReachTEL|title=7 News – National Poll – 26 November 2015|access-date=27 November 2015}}
75. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/federal-politics-voting-intention-110|title=Federal politics – voting intention|date=24 December 2015|publisher=Essential Media Communications}}
76. ^1 {{cite web|url=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-bill-shorten-now-mr-15pc-with-voters/story-fnc6vkbc-1227620261638?sv=ef6da23d671509b1d2b894b2a7eeb09e|date=23 November 2015|publisher=The Australian|author=Phillip Hudson|title=Newspoll: Bill Shorten now Mr 15pc with voters}}
77. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6559-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-november-16-2015-201511160453 |title=Federal Voting Intention virtually unchanged. L-NP (56%) cf. ALP (44%); Confidence in Turnbull Government jumps – highest since March 2011 |date=16 November 2015|publisher=Roy Morgan Research}}
78. ^1 {{cite web|url=http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gst-rise-backed-by-voters-if-other-taxes-cut-fairfaxipsos-poll-20151115-gkzmpf.html|title=GST rise backed by voters if other taxes cut: Fairfax-Ipsos poll|publisher=The Sydney Morning Herald|date=16 November 2015|access-date=16 November 2015}}
79. ^{{cite web|url=http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_151110.pdf |date=10 November 2015 |title=The Essential Report, 10 November 2015 |publisher=Essential}}
80. ^1 {{cite web|url=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-coalition-support-up-again-shorten-now-mr-18-per-cent/story-fnc6vkbc-1227602388814|date=9 November 2015|publisher=The Australian}}
81. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6536-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-november-2-2015-201511020458 |title=Federal Voting Intention virtually unchanged – L-NP (56.5%) leads ALP (43.5%) – biggest lead for L-NP since April 2013 |date=2 November 2015|publisher=Roy Morgan Research}}
82. ^{{cite web|url=http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_151027.pdf|title=The Essential Report 27 October 2015|publisher=Essential}}
83. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/national-affairs/newspoll-true-measure-of-labors-fall-as-coalition-surges-on-pms-gains/story-fnc6vkbc-1227583198842|title=Newspoll: True measure of Labor’s fall as Coalition surges on PM’s gains|publisher=The Australian}}
84. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-22october2015|date=23 October 2015|title=7 News – National Poll – 22 October 2015|publisher=ReachTEL}}
85. ^{{cite web|url=http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_151020.pdf|title=The Essential Report|publisher=Essential}}
86. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6509-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-october-19-2015-201510190610 |title=Federal Voting Intention unchanged – L-NP (56%) leads ALP (44%) – equal biggest lead for L-NP since June 2013 |date=19 October 2015|publisher=Roy Morgan Research}}
87. ^1 {{cite web|url=http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dog-days-for-labor-as-coalition-surges-under-malcolm-turnbull-20151018-gkbx59.html|title=Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows dark days for Labor as Coalition surges under Malcolm Turnbull|date=18 October 2015|accessdate=18 October 2015|publisher=The Sydney Morning Herald}}
88. ^{{cite web|url=http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_151013.pdf|title=The Essential Report 13 October 2015|date=13 October 2015|publisher=Essential}}
89. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/newspoll-malcolm-turnbulls-appeal-grows-but-parties-locked/story-e6frg6n6-1227565337941|title=Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s appeal grows, but parties locked |author=Phillip Hudson|date=11 October 2015|publisher=The Australian}}
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References

{{reflist|colwidth=30em}}{{2016 Australian federal election}}

3 : 2016 Australian federal election|Opinion polling in Australia|Opinion polling for elections
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