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词条 Next Pakistani general election
释义

  1. Background

     2018 elections 

  2. Electoral system

  3. Opinion polls

     Nationwide Voting Intention  Government Approval Rating 

  4. References

{{Infobox election
| election_name = Next Pakistani general election
| country = Pakistan
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = yes
| previous_election = Pakistani general election, 2018
| previous_year = 2018
| election_date = on or before 12 October 2023
| next_election =
| next_year =
| seats_for_election = All 336 seats in the National Assembly
| majority_seats = 169
| opinion_polls =
| turnout =
| previous_mps = List of members of the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan
| next_mps =
| elected_mps =
| image1 =
| leader1 = Imran Khan
| leader_since1 = 25 April 1996
| party1 = Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
| color1 =
| leaders_seat1 =
| seats1 =
| seat_change1 =
| last_election1 = 149 seats, 31.82%
| seats_needed1 = {{increase}} 20
| popular_vote1 =
| percentage1 =
| swing1 =
| image2 =
| leader2 = Shehbaz Sharif
| party2 = Pakistan Muslim League (N)
| leader_since2 = 6 March 2018
| leaders_seat2 =
| seats2 =
| seat_change2 =
| last_election2 = 82 seats, 24.35%
| seats_needed2 = {{increase}} 87
| popular_vote2 =
| percentage2 =
| swing2 =
| image3 =
| leader3 = Bilawal Bhutto Zardari
| leader_since3 = 30 December 2007
| party3 = Pakistan Peoples Party
| color3 =
| leaders_seat3 =
| seats3 =
| seat_change3 =
| last_election3 = 54 seats, 13.03%
| seats_needed3 = {{increase}} 115
| popular_vote3 =
| percentage3 =
| swing3=

| map_image =


| map_size =
| map_alt =
| map =
| map_caption =
| title = Prime Minister
| before_election = Imran Khan
| before_party = Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
| after_election =
| after_party =
}}General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan less than 60 days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which is set to dissolve on 13 August 2023, unless dissolved earlier: in which case the election shall be held within 90 days after dissolution. This means that the election must be held by or before 12 October 2023.[1]

Background

2018 elections

{{further|Pakistani general election, 2018#Results}}

Following the elections in 2018, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf led by former cricket captain of the Pakistan national cricket team Imran Khan emerged as the largest party, winning 149 out of a total of 342 seats in the National Assembly of Pakistan. Despite being short of a majority, Independents and smaller parties such as the MQM-P helped Khan to form a government.[2]

During the election campaign, Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML (N)) led by former Chief Minister of Punjab Shehbaz Sharif campaigned on a platform of being “victimised by hidden forces”. Despite opinion polls close to the election showing a close contest, the actual result of the election showed the PTI with a lead of over 50 seats on the PML-N in the directly elected seats, and also gave it a lead of around 7.5 percentage points, despite polls suggesting it only had a lead of up to 4 percentage points. The PML-N was deprived of the chance of forming a government in Punjab, a province seen as it’s stronghold.[3]

Most parties apart from the PTI cried foul at the result and claimed that it was rigged.[4]

Electoral system

The 342 seats of the National Assembly consist of 272 elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[5] 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for minority groups. The reserved seats are elected by proportional representation based on the national vote share in the single-member constituencies with a 5% electoral threshold.[6] As a result of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan, six seats will be removed from the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas, bringing the total membership of the House down from 342 to 336.

Opinion polls

Nationwide Voting Intention

{{nowrap|DatePollster{{nowrap|PublisherSamplePTI{{nowrap|PML-NPPP{{nowrap|MMA{{nowrap|TLPOthersLead
22 Nov 2018}}IPOR[7]IRI3,99134%21%12%1%1%31%13%
25 July 2018Election 2018ECP53,123,73331.82%24.35%13.01%4.85%4.21%21.76%7.47%

Government Approval Rating

{{nowrap|DatePollster{{nowrap|PublisherSampleApprove (Satisfied)Disapprove (Dissatisfied)NetStrongly ApproveApproveDisapproveStrongly Disapprove
29 Dec 2018}}Gallup Pakistan[8]}}Self1,14151%46%5%13%38%26%20%
01 Dec 2018IPORSelf2,04147%27%20%17%30%18%9%
28 Nov 2018Pulse Consultant[9]}}Geo News}}2,01951%30%21%colspan=4 {{N/A}}
{{nowrap|22 Nov 2018}}IPOR[7]IRI3,99157%39%18%17%40%28%11%
56%40%16%16%40%28%12%
03 Sep 2018Gallup Pakistan[10]Self1,55049%27%22%colspan=4 {{N/A}}

References

1. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.pakistani.org/pakistan/constitution/part8.ch2.html|title=The Constitution of Pakistan, Part VIII: Elections}}
2. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2018/08/imran-khan-elected-pakistan-prime-minister-180817074849200.html|title=Imran Khan elected as Pakistan's prime minister|website=www.aljazeera.com}}
3. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1405132|title=PML-N to compete against ‘hidden forces’ in elections: Nawaz|first=Shafiq|last=Butt|date=2 May 2018|publisher=}}
4. ^{{cite web |url= https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1422876 |title= PTI delivers knockout punch; six major parties cry foul |author=Amir Wasim, Zulqernain Tahir, with Azfar-ul-Ashfaque |date= 26 July 2018 |publisher=}}
5. ^Electoral system IPU
6. ^Pakistan IFES
7. ^{{cite news |url=https://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2019.3.14_pakistan_poll.pdf|title=National Survey of Public Opinion in Pakistan|accessdate=17 March 2019}}
8. ^http://gallup.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/25.01.2019-English-1.pdf
9. ^{{cite news|url=https://www.geo.tv/latest/220175-survey-shows-51-satisfaction-with-100-day-performance-of-imran-khans-government|title=Half the country satisfied during 100 days, satisfaction decreased in Punjab and KP from previous govts|accessdate=23 March 2019}}
10. ^http://gallup.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/15.11.18-English-4.pdf
{{Pakistani elections}}{{Pakistan-election-stub}}

2 : General elections in Pakistan|Future elections in Asia

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