“Opinion polling for the 2002 French legislative election”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

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Opinion polling for the 2002 French legislative election

释义

Graphical summary
First round
Second round seat projections
By second round configuration
PS/PCF/LV–UMP/UDF PS/PCF/LV–UMP/UDF–FN UMP–FN PS–FN
By constituency
First round Bouches-du-Rhône's 1st Bouches-du-Rhône's 3rd Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th Bouches-du-Rhône's 5th Bouches-du-Rhône's 8th Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd Paris's 11th Paris's 16th Tarn-et-Garonne's 1st Vaucluse's 4th Essonne's 1st Seine-Saint-Denis's 9th Val-d'Oise's 5th Second round Bouches-du-Rhône's 1st Bouches-du-Rhône's 3rd Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th Bouches-du-Rhône's 5th Bouches-du-Rhône's 8th Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd Paris's 11th Paris's 16th Tarn-et-Garonne's 1st Vaucluse's 4th Essonne's 1st Seine-Saint-Denis's 9th Val-d'Oise's 5th
See also
References
External links

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2002 French legislative elections, which were held in two rounds on 9 and 16 June 2002.

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the six major French pollsters. The graphs are smoothed 14-day weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (each poll weighted based on recency).

First round

The BVA poll conducted in October 1998 tested Ecology Generation (GE).

The Ipsos poll of 125 constituencies was conducted in seven categories of constituencies: 36 constituencies with left-right duels narrowly won by the left in 1997 with a weak performance of the FN in 2002, 10 constituencies with left-right duels narrowly won by the left in 1997 with the possibility of the FN advancing to the second round in 2002, 21 constituencies with triangulaires in 1997 with the FN narrowly won by the left, 4 constituencies with left-FN duels won by the left in 1997 where the right improved upon its score and could this advance to the second round in 2002, 34 constituencies with left-right duels narrowly won by the right in 1997 with a weak performance of the FN in 2002, 7 constituencies with left-right duels narrowly won by the right in 1997 with the possibility of the FN advancing to the second round in 2002, and 13 constituencies with triangulaires in 1997 with the FN narrowly won by the right.^[1]

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	LO	LCR	EXG	PCF	PR/ MDC	PS	PRG/ MRG	DVG	LV	ECO	CPNT	UDF	UMP/ RPR	DL	DVD	RPF	MPF	FN	MNR/ MN	EXD	REG	DIV
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	35.58%	1.18%	1.24%	0.32%	4.91%	1.19%	23.78%	1.51%	1.38%	4.44%	1.15%	1.64%	4.79%	33.37%	0.42%	3.89%	0.36%	0.79%	11.12%	1.08%	0.25%	0.36%	0.84%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030125040251/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020606a.htm CSA]	5–6 Jun 2002	1,004	–	3%			6%	1%	24.5%		–	4.5%	–	3%	4%	29%		2%	1.5%		15%	1.5%	–	–	5%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-11 Ipsos]	5 Jun 2002	1,014	–	3.5%			6%	2%	25%			5%	1%	3%	4%	32%		4%	–	–	12%	1%	–	–	1.5%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-cinq-jours-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]	31 May–3 Jun 2002	1,869	–	4%			5.5%	2%	24%			5%	1%	2%	4.5%	32%		3.5%	–	–	13%	1.5%	–	–	2%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20031223134255/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/040602_intentions.htm Sofres]	31 May–1 Jun 2002	1,000	–	3%			5%	2%	25.5%			6%	–	–	5%	31%		5%			13%	1.5%	–	–	3%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020612214634/http://www.ifop.com/europe/sondages/opinionf/electleg3.asp Ifop]	30–31 May 2002	950	–	4.5%			5%	2%	24.5%		–	5%	1%	–	36%			4%	–	–	13%	1%	–	–	4%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-deux-semaines-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]	24–27 May 2002	1,816	–	4%			6%	1.5%	24%			5%	1%	3%	4%	32%		3%	–	–	13%	1.5%	–	–	2%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030730203021/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/280502_intentions.htm Sofres]	24–25 May 2002	1,000	–	3.5%			5%	2%	24.5%			6%	–	–	4%	34%		3%			13%	1.5%	–	–	3.5%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020603025316/http://www.bva.fr/new/legislatives2202.html BVA]	23–25 May 2002	667	–	3%			6%	2%	26%			6%	1%	4%	6%	27%		5%	–	–	13%	1%	–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-10 Ipsos]	17–18 May 2002	951	–	3%			6%	1.5%	24%			7%	0.5%	2%	4%	35%		1%	–	–	14%	2%	–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030730202111/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/210502_intentions.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	1,000	–	2.5%			5%	2%	28%			5.5%	–	–	5%	31%		3.5%			11.5%	1.5%	–	–	4.5%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030123014926/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020516a.htm CSA]	15–16 May 2002	1,005	–	3%			6%	2%	25%		–	4%	–	3%	35%			–	3%		13%	2%	–	–	4%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-quatre-semaines-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]	10–11 May 2002	894	–	3%			7%	3%	25%			7%	0.5%	–	41%				–	–	12%	1.5%	–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20021107151559/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020505a.htm CSA]	5 May 2002	1,004	–	3%			6%	1%	27%		–	5%	–	3%	35%			–	3%		11%	2%	–	–	4%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020611060410/http://www.bva.fr/new/baro_politique_20011127-4.html BVA]	28–30 Mar 2002	684	–	7%			7%	–	28%			6%	3%	–	5%	23%	4%	–	2%	–	15%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/dbY7EW8.jpg BVA]	28 Feb–2 Mar 2002	708	–	7%			7%	–	30%			5%	3%	–	5%	24%	3%	–	3%	–	13%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20061123034929/http://www.lh2.fr/_upload/ressources/sondages/election/LHFValactObsPolitiqueFev.pdf Louis Harris]	1–2 Feb 2002	844	–	8%			6%	–	28%			11%	4%	–	9%	18%	6%	–	1%	–	9%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/nPMBodl.jpg BVA]	31 Jan–2 Feb 2002	821	–	6.5%			6.5%	–	28%			6%	4%	–	6%	22%	4%	–	4%	–	13%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20061123034929/http://www.lh2.fr/_upload/ressources/sondages/election/LHFValactObsPolitiqueFev.pdf Louis Harris]	4–5 Jan 2002	1,003	–	7%			6%	–	28%			10%	5%	–	7%	22%	3%	–	2%	–	10%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020112205458/http://www.bva.fr/new/baro_politique_20011127-4.html BVA]	2–5 Jan 2002	720	–	6%			6%	–	30%			9%	3%	–	6%	21%	4%	–	4%	–	11%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020418004014/http://www.bva.fr/fr/sondages/gauchedroite.html BVA]	29 Nov–1 Dec 2001	653	–	4%			7%	–	27%			10%	4%	–	4%	23%	4%	–	4%	–	13%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/d2HxLnA.jpg BVA]	25–27 Oct 2001	661	–	6%			6%	–	27%			10%	2%	–	5%	25%	3%	–	4%	–	12%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/Bg5m5qb.jpg BVA]	27–29 Sep 2001	764	–	5%			7%	–	28%			8%	3%	–	6%	22%	4%	–	4%	–	13%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/qwQZ0T5.jpg BVA]	30 Aug–1 Sep 2001	678	–	6%			6%	–	28%			9%	4%	–	7%	22%	4%	–	5%	–	9%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/B3KTOal.jpg BVA]	5–7 Jul 2001	917	–	6%			8%	–	31%			8%	5%	–	6%	21%	3%	–	3%	–	9%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/av8aGZ2.jpg BVA]	14–16 Jun 2001	682	–	7%			7%	–	30%			9%	3%	–	6%	20%	3%	–	6%	–	9%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/i70KXYv.jpg BVA]	10–12 May 2001	645	–	5%			8%	–	29%			10%	4%	–	7%	21%	3%	–	4%	–	9%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/bJ29xAe.jpg BVA]	20–21 Apr 2001	738	–	5%			7%	–	28%			12%	3%	–	7%	20%	4%	–	4%	–	10%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/aBuOpcj.jpg BVA]	22–24 Mar 2001	647	–	6%			6%	–	31%			10%	3%	–	7%	22%	4%	–	3%	–	8%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/flITIXF.png BVA]	22–24 Feb 2001	634	–	6%			8%	–	30%			8%	4%	–	6.5%	20%	3.5%	–	4%	–	10%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20010219224441/http://www.bva.fr/fr/sondages/gauchedroite.html BVA]	1–3 Feb 2001	642	–	5%			8%	–	32%			7%	2%	–	6.5%	24%	3.5%	–	4%	–	8%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/c6Ubecm.jpg BVA]	11–13 Jan 2001	621	–	5%			8%	–	31%			6%	3%	–	7%	21%	3%	–	4%	–	12%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/c6Ubecm.jpg BVA]	30 Nov–2 Dec 2000	945	–	6.5%			7.5%	–	29%			8%	3%	–	6.5%	19%	4%	–	6%	–	10.5%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20010706210751/http://www.ifop.com/europe/sondages/opinionf/anticip.asp Ifop]	27 Nov 2000	803	–	3%			8%	–	27%			14%		–	27%		–	8%	–	–	10%	–	–	–	3%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20001206051600/http://www.bva.fr/sondages/gauchedroite.html BVA]	8–10 Nov 2000	615	–	7%			7%	–	30%			7%	3%	–	7.5%	22%	2.5%	–	4%	–	10%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/JSzWZcw.jpg BVA]	6–8 Oct 2000	601	–	5%			7%	–	28%			7%	3%	–	6%	22%	4%	–	7%	–	11%		–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/barometre-paris-matchbva BVA]	7–9 Sep 2000	577	–	7%			8%	–	24%			7.5%	4%	–	7%	21%	3.5%	–	8%	–	10%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20000816223757/http://www.bva.fr/sondages/gauchedroite.html BVA]	20–22 Jul 2000	681	–	6%			8%	–	26%			7%	3%	–	6%	23%	4%	–	7.5%	–	9.5%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/qHFDhoc.jpg BVA]	15–17 Jun 2000	629	–	4.5%			7%	–	29%			7%	4%	–	6.5%	23%	3%	–	8%	–	8%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20000614003031/http://www.bva.fr/sondages/gauchedroite.html BVA]	11–13 May 2000	687	–	5%			9%	–	27%			6%	4%	–	8%	21%	4%	–	9%	–	7%		–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-climat-electoral-dans-la-perspective-des-elections-presidentielles-et-legislatives Ipsos]	28–29 Apr 2000	825	–	3%			9%	–	29%		–	8%	–	–	36%			–	4%	–	9%	2%	–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/tableau-de-bord-paris-matchbva-2 BVA]	13–15 Apr 2000	505	–	4.5%			8.5%	–	28%			7%	3%	–	8%	20%	3%	–	10%	–	8%		–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-tableau-de-bord-paris-match-bva-0 BVA]	16–18 Mar 2000	621	–	5%			9%	–	27%			7%	4%	–	8%	17%	3%	–	11%	–	9%		–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-de-laction-politique-21 Ipsos]	10–11 Mar 2000	920	–	3%			8%	–	29%		–	9%	–	–	35%			–	6%	–	8%	2%	–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20000226111440/http://www.bva.fr/sondages/gauchedroite.html BVA]	17–19 Feb 2000	599	–	5%			8%	–	28.5%			6.5%	5%	–	8%	17.5%	3%	–	9.5%	–	9%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20000122070426/http://www.bva.fr/sondages/gauchedroite.html BVA]	13–15 Jan 2000	546	–	5.5%			9.5%	–	26%			7%	2.5%	–	7%	18.5%	2.5%	–	11.5%	–	10%		–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/jospin-chirac-lecart-se-creuse Sofres]	27–29 Dec 1999	995	–	2%			9%	–	29%			8%	3%	–	25%			–	12%	–	10%	–	–	–	2%
[https://i.imgur.com/7d527mS.jpg BVA]	9–11 Dec 1999	601	–	6.5%			9%	–	26%			8%	3%	–	8%	19%	3%	–	9.5%	–	8%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/S2qyeyo.jpg BVA]	18–20 Nov 1999	926	–	5%			9%	–	28%			6%	2%	–	9%	17%	4%	–	9%	–	11%		–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/tableau-de-bord-paris-match-0 BVA]	14–16 Oct 1999	608	–	6%			9%	–	26%			6%	2%	–	8%	16%	3%	–	11%	–	13%		–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/lpZB5Wm.jpg BVA]	16–18 Sep 1999	673	–	5.5%			8%	–	26%			7%	3.5%	–	6%	17%	3%	–	12%	–	12%		–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/tableau-de-bord-mensuel-paris-match-bva-4 BVA]	15–17 Jul 1999	599	–	6%			7%	27%			–	7%	3%	–	8%	15%	3%	–	14%	–	10%		–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/tableau-de-bord-mensuel-paris-match-bva-3 BVA]	17–19 Jun 1999	648	–	6%			8%	27%			–	10%	3%	–	9%	11%	3%	–	16%	–	7%		–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/19990422100814/http://www.bva.fr/sondages/gauchedroite1098.html BVA]	11–13 Mar 1999	609	–	6%			8%	–	26%		–	8%	2%	–	7%	22%	6%	–	–	–	15%	–	–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/tableau-de-bord-mensuel-paris-match-bva-1 BVA]	14–16 Jan 1999	688	–	5%			8%	–	29%			7%	2%	–	7%	24%	4%	–	–	–	14%	–	–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/tableau-de-bord-mensuel-paris-match-bva-0 BVA]	10–13 Dec 1998	589	–	5%			8%	–	29%			7%	3%	–	7%	24%	6%	–	–	–	11%	–	–	–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-tableau-de-bord-politique-bva-paris-match-2 BVA]	19–21 Nov 1998	643	–	5%			9%	–	30%			6%	3%	–	7%	22%	5%	–	–	–	13%	–	–	–	–
[https://i.imgur.com/2gitdYn.jpg BVA]	15–17 Oct 1998	928	–	5%			8%	–	31%		–	5%	4%	–	8%	19%	5%	–	–	–	15%	–	–	–	–
CSA	27–28 Mar 1998	1,005	–	3.5%			9%	32%				5%	3%	–	8%	18%	–	5.5%	–	–	15%	–	–	–	1%
1997 election	25 May 1997	–	32.08%	(EXG)	(EXG)	2.52%	9.94%	(DVG)	23.53%	1.45%	2.81%	(ECO)	6.81%	–	14.19%	15.69%	–	6.63%	–	(DVD)	14.94%	–	0.10%	(DIV)	1.39%

In 125 constituencies

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	LO	LCR	EXG	PCF	PR/ MDC	PS	PRG	DVG	LV	ECO	UDF	UMP/ RPR	DL	DVD	FN	MNR
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/les-intentions-de-vote-dans-ces-circonscriptions Ipsos]	10–13 May 2002	689	3%			5%	3%	24%			6%	1%	42%				14%	2%

Second round seat projections

Projections marked with an asterisk (*) are for 555 deputies representing metropolitan France. The Ipsos projection on 12 June was constructed using interviews in 198 constituencies where the outcome appeared uncertain.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	PCF	PS	PRG	DVG	LV	UDF	UMP	DL	DVD	RPF	MPF	FN	MNR	REG	DIV
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	39.69%	21	140	7	6	3	29	355	2	9	2	1	0	0	1	1
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-12enquete-dans-les-198-circonscriptions-ou-le-duel Ipsos]*	12 Jun 2002	1,022	–	14–22	115–145			1–5	24–30	384–414					0	–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030125040251/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020606a.htm CSA]	5–6 Jun 2002	1,004	–	16–26	140–196				350–410						0–2		–	3–11
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-11 Ipsos]*	5 Jun 2002	1,014	–	174–216					339–381						0–4		–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-cinq-jours-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]*	31 May–3 Jun 2002	1,869	–	158–196					359–397						0–4		–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20031223134255/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/040602_intentions.htm Sofres]*	31 May–1 Jun 2002	1,000	–	164–238					316–388						0–4		–	–
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-deux-semaines-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]*	24–27 May 2002	1,816	–	167–208					347–388						0–4		–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030730203021/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/280502_intentions.htm Sofres]*	24–25 May 2002	1,000	–	155–207					348–400						0	–	–	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030730202111/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/210502_intentions.htm Sofres]*	17–18 May 2002	1,000	–	198–238					306–372						0	–	–	–
1997 election	1 Jun 1997	–	29.03%	38	241	12	21	7	106	132	–	13	–	(DVD)	1	0	0	1

By second round configuration

Older values provided by Ipsos in 198 uncertain constituencies were constructed using older national polls conducted by the pollster.

PS/PCF/LV–UMP/UDF

Ifop specifically named the PS and UMP. Sofres specifically named the PCF, PS, and LV, and the UMP (UDF, RPR, and DVD). In 2000, Ipsos specifically named the PS, PCF, and LV, and the RPR, UDF, and DL. In the polls conducted from 10 to 11 May 2002 and of 198 constituencies, Ipsos specifically named the PS, PCF, and LV, and the RPR, UDF, and DL. Thereafter, Ipsos specifically named the PS, PCF, and LV, and the UMP and UDF.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS/ PCF/LV	UMP/ UDF
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020811025006/http://www.ifop.com/europe/sondages/opinionf/suivileg.asp Ifop]	6–7 Jun 2002	945	44%	56%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-11 Ipsos]	5 Jun 2002	1,014	48%	52%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-cinq-jours-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]	31 May–3 Jun 2002	1,869	47%	53%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20031223134255/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/040602_intentions.htm Sofres]	31 May–1 Jun 2002	1,000	46%	54%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-deux-semaines-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]	24–27 May 2002	1,816	47%	53%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030730203021/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/280502_intentions.htm Sofres]	24–25 May 2002	1,000	45%	55%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-10 Ipsos]	17–18 May 2002	951	45%	55%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030730202111/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/210502_intentions.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	1,000	48.5%	51.5%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-quatre-semaines-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]	10–11 May 2002	894	47%	53%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-climat-electoral-dans-la-perspective-des-elections-presidentielles-et-legislatives Ipsos]	28–29 Apr 2000	825	51%	49%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-de-laction-politique-21 Ipsos]	10–11 Mar 2000	920	50%	50%

In 198 constituencies

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS/ PCF/LV	UMP/ UDF
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-12enquete-dans-les-198-circonscriptions-ou-le-duel Ipsos]	12 Jun 2002	1,022	47%	53%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-12enquete-dans-les-198-circonscriptions-ou-le-duel Ipsos]	9 Jun 2002	–	48%	52%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-12enquete-dans-les-198-circonscriptions-ou-le-duel Ipsos]	5 Jun 2002	–	50%	50%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-12enquete-dans-les-198-circonscriptions-ou-le-duel Ipsos]	31 May–3 Jun 2002	–	51%	49%

In 125 constituencies

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS/ PCF/LV	UMP/ UDF
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/les-intentions-de-vote-dans-ces-circonscriptions Ipsos]	10–13 May 2002	689	45%	55%

PS/PCF/LV–UMP/UDF–FN

Ifop specifically named the PS, UMP, and FN. Sofres specifically named the PCF, PS, and LV; the UMP (UDF, RPR, and DVD); and the FN and MNR. In the polls conducted from 10 to 11 May 2002 and of 198 constituencies, Ipsos specifically named the PS, PCF, and LV; the RPR, UDF, and DL; and the FN. Thereafter, Ipsos specifically named the PS, PCF, and LV; the UMP and UDF; and the FN.

Ipsos polls, denoted with an asterisk (*), only tested this scenario in constituencies where Jean-Marie Le Pen and Bruno Mégret together obtained at least 12.5% of the vote in the preceding presidential election.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS/ PCF/LV	UMP/ UDF	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020811025006/http://www.ifop.com/europe/sondages/opinionf/suivileg.asp Ifop]	6–7 Jun 2002	945	41%	45%	14%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-11 Ipsos]*	5 Jun 2002	1,014	39%	45%	16%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-cinq-jours-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]*	31 May–3 Jun 2002	1,869	40%	44%	16%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20031223134255/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/040602_intentions.htm Sofres]	31 May–1 Jun 2002	1,000	43%	45%	12%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-deux-semaines-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]*	24–27 May 2002	1,816	39%	44%	17%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030730203021/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/280502_intentions.htm Sofres]	24–25 May 2002	1,000	41%	47%	12%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/le-barometre-legislatives-2002-vague-10 Ipsos]*	17–18 May 2002	951	38%	45%	17%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030730202111/http://www.tns-sofres.com/etudes/pol/210502_intentions.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	1,000	44%	45%	11%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-de-lopinion-quatre-semaines-des-elections-legislatives Ipsos]*	10–11 May 2002	894	40%	46%	14%

In 79 of 125 constituencies

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS/ PCF/LV	UMP/ UDF	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/les-intentions-de-vote-dans-ces-circonscriptions Ipsos]	10–13 May 2002	689	40%	44%	16%

UMP–FN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	UMP	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020811025006/http://www.ifop.com/europe/sondages/opinionf/suivileg.asp Ifop]	6–7 Jun 2002	945	86%	14%

PS–FN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	PS	FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020811025006/http://www.ifop.com/europe/sondages/opinionf/suivileg.asp Ifop]	6–7 Jun 2002	945	79%	21%

By constituency

First round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 1st

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Mireille Mavrides {{small\|PCF	Marie-Arlette Carlotti {{small\|PS	Roger Guichard {{small\|PR	Roland Blum {{small\|UMP–DL	Marie-Claude Aucouturier {{small\|FN	Pascal Munier {{small\|MNR	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	35.92%	4.24%	25.92%	0.84%	39.89%	18.88%	1.98%	8.25%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020606101736/http://www.sofres.com/etudes/pol/310502_marseille_r.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	500	–	2%	27%	4%	40%	15%	4%	8%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 3rd

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Jean-Paul Nostriano {{small\|PCF	Gabriel Malauzat {{small\|PS	Philippe Sanmarco {{small\|DVG	Yannick Lopez {{small\|LV	Jean Roatta {{small\|UMP–DL	Jackie Blanc {{small\|FN	Nicole Cantrel {{small\|MNR	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	38.78%	4.76%	21.81%	5.02%	2.38%	36.28%	18.80%	1.70%	9.26%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020606101736/http://www.sofres.com/etudes/pol/310502_marseille_r.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	500	–	4%	23%	4%	5%	36%	14%	6%	8%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Sylvie Moyen {{small\|LO	Frédéric Dutoit {{small\|PCF	Patrick Mennucci {{small\|PS	Karim Zéribi {{small\|PR	François Franceschi {{small\|UMP–RPF	Jean-Pierre Baumann {{small\|FN	Hubert Savon {{small\|MNR	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	43.60%	0.77%	25.86%	17.96%	4.28%	16.60%	24.44%	3.83%	6.27%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821203919/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020528a.htm CSA]	27–28 May 2002	500	–	5%	19%	22%	3%	11%	26%	5%	9%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 5th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Marie-Yves Le Dret {{small\|PCF	David Gomes {{small\|DVG	Jean-Luc Bennahmias {{small\|LV–PS	Renaud Muselier {{small\|UMP–RPR	Marie-Odile Rayé {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	36.88%	5.39%	6.03%	16.97%	42.82%	18.14%	10.65%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020606101736/http://www.sofres.com/etudes/pol/310502_marseille_r.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	500	–	4.5%	–	23%	44%	16%	12.5%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 8th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Christophe Masse {{small\|PS–PCF	Jacques Rocca Serra {{small\|UDF–UMP	Stéphane Durbec {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	37.94%	35.66%	26.81%	21.09%	16.44%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020606101736/http://www.sofres.com/etudes/pol/310502_marseille_r.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	500	–	33%	29%	21.5%	16.5%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Georges Labazée {{small\|PS	Jean Saint-Josse {{small\|CPNT	François Bayrou {{small\|UDF	Marie-France Galvez {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	28.14%	31.41%	9.43%	41.79%	6.59%	10.76%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821201651/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020604b.htm CSA]	3–4 Jun 2002	502	–	29%	14%	36.5%	10%	10.5%

Paris's 11th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Yves Cochet {{small\|LV–PS	Dominique Versini {{small\|UMP	Yves Ogé {{small\|UDF	Nicole Catala {{small\|DVD	Yves de Coatgoureden {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	28.70%	38.07%	24.94%	4.85%	13.71%	6.21%	12.22%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821201129/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020601a.htm CSA]	31 May–1 Jun 2002	502	–	39%	21%	2%	19%	6%	13%

Paris's 16th

Bernard Pons was eligible to continue to the second round, but instead announced his retirement from politics after the first round, allowing Françoise de Panafieu to win unopposed on 16 June 2002.^[2]

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Nelly Oehlhaffen {{small\|PS	Atanase Périfan {{small\|DVD	Françoise de Panafieu {{small\|DVD	Bernard Pons {{small\|UMP	Danièle Lançon {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	29.36%	15.55%	4.99%	40.83%	22.34%	6.10%	10.18%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030511061809/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020529b.htm CSA]	27–29 May 2002	501	–	13%	2.5%	40%	24%	9%	11.5%

Tarn-et-Garonne's 1st

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Joëlle Greder {{small\|PCF	Roland Garrigues {{small\|PS	Philippe Debaigt {{small\|LV	Thierry Cabanes {{small\|CPNT	Brigitte Barèges {{small\|UMP	Liliane Garcia {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	27.56%	2.22%	32.35%	2.56%	3.59%	38.95%	12.03%	8.30%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821202447/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020604c.htm CSA]	3–4 Jun 2002	500	–	4%	31%	4%	5%	36%	12%	8%

Vaucluse's 4th

Jean-Pierre Lambertin was eligible to continue through to the second round, but instead withdrew his candidacy.^[3]

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Jean-Pierre Lambertin {{small\|PS–PCF–LV	Thierry Mariani {{small\|UMP	Jacques Bompard {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	29.74%	25.06%	35.23%	34.06%	5.65%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821204318/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020530b.htm CSA]	29–30 May 2002	539	–	27%	33%	32%	8%

Essonne's 1st

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Bruno Piriou {{small\|PCF	Manuel Valls {{small\|PS	Jacques Picard {{small\|LV	Serge Dassault {{small\|UMP	Gaëtan de Fresnoye {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	38.84%	4.60%	36.34%	3.52%	35.95%	11.20%	8.39%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030123021500/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020530a.htm CSA]	30 May 2002	501	–	7%	28%	8%	30%	14%	13%

Seine-Saint-Denis's 9th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Gilles Garnier {{small\|PCF	Élisabeth Guigou {{small\|PS	Anne Déo {{small\|LV	Nicole Rivoire {{small\|UDF	Georgia Vincent {{small\|UMP	Marie-Estelle Préjean {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	38.62%	10.22%	33.90%	4.62%	0.00%	26.59%	15.36%	9.32%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030123013810/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020604a.htm CSA]	3–4 Jun 2002	500	–	9%	36%	6%	5%	16%	15%	13%

Val-d'Oise's 5th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Robert Hue {{small\|PCF–PS–LV	Georges Mothron {{small\|UMP	Micheline Bruna {{small\|FN	Others
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	9 Jun 2002	–	39.24%	38.63%	35.53%	14.38%	11.47%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030123015730/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020529a.htm CSA]	25–29 May 2002	501	–	36%	35%	15%	14%

Second round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 1st

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Marie-Arlette Carlotti {{small\|PS	Roland Blum {{small\|UMP–DL	Marie-Claude Aucouturier {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	43.47%	39.82%	60.18%	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020606101736/http://www.sofres.com/etudes/pol/310502_marseille_r.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	500	–	40%	60%	–
				38%	43%	19%
				–	81%	19%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 3rd

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Gabriel Malauzat {{small\|PS	Jean Roatta {{small\|UMP–DL	Jackie Blanc {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	45.97%	42.83%	57.17%	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020606101736/http://www.sofres.com/etudes/pol/310502_marseille_r.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	500	–	42%	58%	–
				40%	44%	16%
				–	78%	22%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Frédéric Dutoit {{small\|PCF	Patrick Mennucci {{small\|PS	François Franceschi {{small\|UMP–RPF	Jean-Pierre Baumann {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	49.97%	64.80%	–	–	35.20%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821203919/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020528a.htm CSA]	27–28 May 2002	500	–	61%	–	–	39%
				48%	–	24%	28%
				–	62%	–	38%
				–	50%	23%	27%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 5th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Jean-Luc Bennahmias {{small\|LV–PS	Renaud Muselier {{small\|UMP–RPR	Marie-Odile Rayé {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	47.90%	–	75.54%	24.46%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020606101736/http://www.sofres.com/etudes/pol/310502_marseille_r.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	500	–	–	83%	17%
				34%	50%	16%
				37%	63%	–

Bouches-du-Rhône's 8th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Christophe Masse {{small\|PS–PCF	Jacques Rocca Serra {{small\|UDF–UMP	Stéphane Durbec {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	42.35%	44.56%	36.84%	18.60%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020606101736/http://www.sofres.com/etudes/pol/310502_marseille_r.htm Sofres]	17–18 May 2002	500	–	41%	38%	21%
				50%	50%	–
				–	73%	27%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Georges Labazée {{small\|PS	Jean Saint-Josse {{small\|CPNT	François Bayrou {{small\|UDF
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	31.91%	44.42%	–	55.58%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821201651/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020604b.htm CSA]	3–4 Jun 2002	502	–	45%	–	55%
	3–4 Jun 2002	502	–	39%	17%	44%

Paris's 11th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Yves Cochet {{small\|LV–PS	Dominique Versini {{small\|UMP	Nicole Catala {{small\|DVD
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	31.62%	51.83%	48.17%	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821201129/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020601a.htm CSA]	31 May–1 Jun 2002	502	–	52%	48%	–
				47%	27%	26%
				51%	–	49%

Paris's 16th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Nelly Oehlhaffen {{small\|PS	Françoise de Panafieu {{small\|DVD	Bernard Pons {{small\|UMP
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	54.48%	–	100.00%	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030511061809/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020529b.htm CSA]	27–29 May 2002	501	–	–	64%	36%
	27–29 May 2002	501	–	19%	50%	31%

Tarn-et-Garonne's 1st

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Roland Garrigues {{small\|PS	Brigitte Barèges {{small\|UMP	Liliane Garcia {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	29.20%	45.85%	54.15%	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821202447/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020604c.htm CSA]	3–4 Jun 2002	500	–	47%	53%	–
	3–4 Jun 2002	500	–	43%	47%	10%

Vaucluse's 4th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Jean-Pierre Lambertin {{small\|PS–PCF–LV	Thierry Mariani {{small\|UMP	Jacques Bompard {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	34.13%	–	57.62%	42.38%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20020821204318/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020530b.htm CSA]	29–30 May 2002	539	–	–	60%	40%
	29–30 May 2002	539	–	30%	36%	34%

Essonne's 1st

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Manuel Valls {{small\|PS	Serge Dassault {{small\|UMP	Gaëtan de Fresnoye {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	41.47%	52.97%	47.03%	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030123021500/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020530a.htm CSA]	30 May 2002	501	–	51%	49%	–
	30 May 2002	501	–	50%	39%	11%

Seine-Saint-Denis's 9th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Élisabeth Guigou {{small\|PS	Georgia Vincent {{small\|UMP	Marie-Estelle Préjean {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	44.38%	56.40%	43.60%	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030123013810/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020604a.htm CSA]	3–4 Jun 2002	500	–	62%	38%	–
	3–4 Jun 2002	500	–	58%	27%	15%

Val-d'Oise's 5th

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention	Robert Hue {{small\|PCF–PS–LV	Georges Mothron {{small\|UMP	Micheline Bruna {{small\|FN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	{{abbr\|Abs.\|Abstention
2002 election	16 Jun 2002	–	40.88%	49.62%	50.38%	–
[https://web.archive.org/web/20030123015730/http://www.csa-fr.com/fra/dataset/data2002/opi20020529a.htm CSA]	25–29 May 2002	501	–	50%	50%	–
	25–29 May 2002	501	–	45%	42%	13%

References

1. ^¹{{cite web|title=Les 125 circonscriptions sensibles|url=https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/les-125-circonscriptions-sensibles|publisher=Ipsos|date=14 May 2002|accessdate=10 March 2018}}
2. ^{{cite news|title=A Paris, droite et gauche sont au coude-à-coude|url=https://www.lesechos.fr/11/06/2002/LesEchos/18672-019-ECH_a-paris--droite-et-gauche-sont-au-coude-a-coude.htm|newspaper=Les Échos|date=11 June 2002|accessdate=11 March 2018}}
3. ^{{cite news|title=Echos de campagne|url=https://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2002/06/11/407717-echos-de-campagne.html|newspaper=La Dépêche du Midi|date=11 June 2002|accessdate=11 March 2018}}

External links

Notices of the French polling commission {{fr}}

2 : Opinion polling in France|Opinion polling for elections

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Graphical summary

First round

Second round seat projections

By second round configuration

PS/PCF/LV–UMP/UDF

PS/PCF/LV–UMP/UDF–FN

UMP–FN

PS–FN

By constituency

First round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 1st

Bouches-du-Rhône's 3rd

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Bouches-du-Rhône's 5th

Bouches-du-Rhône's 8th

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Paris's 11th

Paris's 16th

Tarn-et-Garonne's 1st

Vaucluse's 4th

Essonne's 1st

Seine-Saint-Denis's 9th

Val-d'Oise's 5th

Second round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 1st

Bouches-du-Rhône's 3rd

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Bouches-du-Rhône's 5th

Bouches-du-Rhône's 8th

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Paris's 11th

Paris's 16th

Tarn-et-Garonne's 1st

Vaucluse's 4th

Essonne's 1st

Seine-Saint-Denis's 9th

Val-d'Oise's 5th

See also

References

External links