请输入您要查询的百科知识：

　

词条 Opinion polling for the 2015 French departmental elections
释义

  1. National

      First round    By second round configuration    Left–right–FN    Left–right    Left–FN    Right–FN    Departmental projections    Cantonal projections  

  2. Aisne

  3. Dordogne

  4. Gard

  5. Gironde

  6. Landes

  7. Pyrénées-Orientales

  8. Essonne

  9. Val-de-Marne

  10. External links

{{Use dmy dates|date=February 2018}}

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2015 French departmental elections, which were held in two rounds on 22 and 29 March 2015.

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

National

First round

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionEXGFGEELVPSDVGMoDemUDIUMPDVDFNDIV
2015 election22 Mar 2015 – 49.83% 0.07% 6.10% 2.03% 21.46% 7.10% 0.64% 1.29%27.46% 7.21% 25.24% 1.40%
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2975-1-study_file.pdf Ifop-Fiducial]18–19 Mar 2015 1,132 53%<0.5% 6% 3% 20% 4%29% 6%30% 2%
OpinionWay17–19 Mar 2015 2,274 54% – 6% 3% 22% 4% 0.5% 0.5%29% 4%29% 2%
Harris Interactive17–18 Mar 2015 1,015 –<0.5% 7% 2% 19% 5% 1%28% 8%29% 1%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20150923211452/http://www.csa.eu/multimedia/data/sondages/data2015/opi20150319-Les-elections-departementales-Vague2.pdf CSA]16–18 Mar 2015 979 56%<0.5% 7% 3% 20% 4% 3%27% 5%28% 3%
[https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/letat-desprit-des-francais-avant-les-elections-departementales Ipsos]16–17 Mar 2015 1,038 54% – 7% 2% 21% 5% 0.5% (DVD)30% 4% 29% 1.5%
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2965-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]11–13 Mar 2015 1,473 54%<0.5% 6% 3% 19% 5%<0.5%29% 5%30% 3%
Harris Interactive10–11 Mar 2015 1,020 – 0.5% 7% 3%26% 0.5%32% 29% 2%
Odoxa5–6 Mar 2015 880 – 1% 8% 4%20% –29% –31% 7%
Harris Interactive3–5 Mar 2015 1,030 – 1% 6% 4%21% 3%28%30% 7%
OpinionWay3–5 Mar 2015 977 56% – 7% 2% 21% 5% 1% 1%29% 5% 28% 1%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20150307092903/http://www.csa.eu/multimedia/data/sondages/data2015/opi20150304-csa-bfmtv-les-elections-departementales.pdf CSA]2–4 Mar 2015 965 58%<0.5% 6% 2% 21% 4%5% 25% 5%29% 3%
Odoxa26–27 Feb 2015 807 – 2% 9% 4%19% –27% –33% 6%
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2941-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]19–20 Feb 2015 918 57% 2% 6% 7% 20% – –28% –30% 7%
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2940-1-study_file.pdf Ifop-Fiducial]11–13 Feb 2015 900 – 2% 7% 6% 21% – 6%27% –29% 2%
[https://staticswww.bva-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/fichier_bva_-_i-tele_-_rapport_de_force_departementales_-_31_janvier_201520351.pdf BVA]29–30 Jan 2015 1,028 – 2% 9% 7%18% 8% 5% 25% –26% –
Odoxa22–23 Jan 2015 1,015 – 1% 10% 7%20% 6% 7% 23% –26% –
Odoxa11–12 Dec 2014 1,002 – 2% 9% 7%17% 5% 7% 25% –28% –

By second round configuration

The Ifop poll conducted from 23 to 24 March 2015 tested hypotheses in cantons in which specific configurations were present in the second round; the sample size provided represents the entire poll and not that within each configuration.

Left–right–FN

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionLeftRightFN
Odoxa11–12 Dec 2014 1,002 – 32%39% 29%
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2980-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]23–24 Mar 2015 1,902 –35% 34% 31%
Harris Interactive22 Mar 2015 991 – 37%41% 22%

Left–right

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionLeftRight
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2980-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]23–24 Mar 2015 1,902 – 44%56%
Harris Interactive22 Mar 2015 991 – 42%58%

Left–FN

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionLeftFN
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2980-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]23–24 Mar 2015 1,902 –54% 46%
Harris Interactive22 Mar 2015 991 –60% 40%

Right–FN

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionRightFN
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2980-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]23–24 Mar 2015 1,902 –63% 37%
Harris Interactive22 Mar 2015 991 –71% 29%

Departmental projections

The departmental projections below were constructed for the 93 departments of metropolitan France excluding Corse-du-Sud and Haute-Corse.

Polling firmFieldwork dateLeftRightHung
2015 election29 Mar 2015 2964 0
OpinionWay27 Mar 2015 2761 5
[https://www.slideshare.net/OpinionWayTVOpinionW/cantoscope-premier-tour23032015 OpinionWay]23 Mar 2015 2563 5
[https://www.slideshare.net/OpinionWayTVOpinionW/lopinion-et-slpv-analytics-le-cantoscope-par-opinionway-mars-2015 OpinionWay]22 Mar 2015 1971 3
OpinionWay19 Mar 2015 2066 7

Cantonal projections

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		LeftRightFN
OpinionWay27 Mar 2015 – 750–8001100–1150 60–100
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2980-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]23–24 Mar 2015 1,902 560–680970–1110 50–110

Aisne

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionFG/
PCF		PS/
DVG		UMP/
UDI		FNDIV
2015 election22 Mar 2015 – 46.73% 2.63% 28.92% 29.60%38.67% 0.17%
Odoxa6–10 Mar 2015 814 – 7% 20% 24%41% 8%

Dordogne

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionFG/
PCF		PS/
PRG		DVG/
EELV		UMP/UDI/
MoDem		DVDFN
2015 election22 Mar 2015 – 39.96% 10.40%33.67% 4.44% 19.94% 10.18% 21.37%
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2970-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]11–12 Mar 2015 804 48% 10% 22% 10%26% 7% 25%

Gard

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionFGPSDVG/
EELV		UMP/UDI/
MoDem		DVD/
DLF		FN
2015 election22 Mar 2015 – 46.02% 11.77% 15.78% 9.62% 22.21% 3.48%35.54%
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2973-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]16–17 Mar 2015 604 52% 10% 16% 9% 25% 7%33%

Gironde

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionFGPS/
DVG		EELVUMP/UDI/
MoDem/CPNT		DVDFN
2015 election22 Mar 2015 – 49.45% 8.05%33.05% 2.60% 31.84% 1.22% 22.78%
[https://www.sudouest.fr/2015/03/19/elections-departementales-en-gironde-la-droite-et-le-centre-en-tete-du-premier-tour-1864254-2964.php Ifop]13–14 Mar 2015 802 50% 7% 24% 11%28% 9% 21%

Landes

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionFGPSEELVUMP/UDI/
MoDem		FN
2015 election22 Mar 2015 – 42.80% 7.85%38.79% 1.62% 32.63% 18.67%
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2971-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]11–12 Mar 2015 802 50% 11% 28% 6%32% 23%

Pyrénées-Orientales

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionPSDVG/FG/
EELV		UMP/
UDI		FNDIV
2015 election22 Mar 2015 – 42.80% 25.02% 7.97% 23.65%31.42% 11.95%
[https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2974-1-study_file.pdf Ifop]16–17 Mar 2015 604 48% 22% 10% 30%33% 5%

Essonne

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionFG/
PCF		PSUMP/
UDI		DVDFNDIV
2015 election22 Mar 2015 – 52.58% 5.08% 31.47%31.57% 8.32% 22.71% 0.85%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20150323104737/http://www.le-republicain.fr/actualites-departementales/4891-essonne-departementales-2015-sondage-1er-tour-la-droite-en-tete PollingVox]19 Mar 2015 – – 11% 23%31% 5% 23% 7%
Odoxa3–5 Mar 2015 807 – 16% 22%25% 9% 20% 8%

Val-de-Marne

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		{{abbr|Abs.|AbstentionFG/
PCF		PS/
DVG		EELVUMP/
UDI		FN
2015 election22 Mar 2015 – 55.56% 17.20% 21.95% 6.21%33.33% 17.21%
Odoxa11–13 Mar 2015 813 – 23% 19% 8%31% 19%

External links

  • Notices of the French polling commission {{fr}}

2 : Opinion polling in France|Opinion polling for elections
随便看

　

开放百科全书收录14589846条英语、德语、日语等多语种百科知识，基本涵盖了大多数领域的百科知识，是一部内容自由、开放的电子版国际百科全书。

　

Copyright © 2023 OENC.NET All Rights Reserved
京ICP备2021023879号 更新时间：2024/11/13 11:35:17