“Opinion polling for the 2015 Portuguese legislative election”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

词条

Opinion polling for the 2015 Portuguese legislative election

释义

Graphical summary
Party vote
Seat projections
Notes
References
External links

In the run up to the 2015 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 5 June 2011, to the day the next election was held, on 4 October 2015.

Graphical summary

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Date	Polling Firm	Sample size	PSD	PS	CDS-PP	CDU	BE	MPT	L/TDA	PDR	PàF{{efn\|name=PSD/CDS–PP	Others	Lead
Date	Polling Firm	Sample size										Others	Lead
4 Oct 2015	Election Results	55.9%	w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF	8.3	10.2	0.4	0.7	1.1	38.6	8.4	6.3
4 Oct	name=DataAverage}}	w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF	8.9	9.4	40.2	9.2	7.9
4 Oct	name=DataAverage}}	46,626	w.PàF	31.3	w.PàF	7.9	9.3	38.3	13.2	7.0
4 Oct	Intercampus{{efn>name=DataAverage}}	17,726	w.PàF	31.7	w.PàF	8.5	10.2	39.2	10.4	7.5
4 Oct	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=DataAverage}}	25,898	w.PàF	32.5	w.PàF	8.0	9.5	1.0	40.5	8.5	8.0
Exit polls
26 Sep–1 Oct	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/eleicoes/legislativas/detalhe/coligacao_tem_quase_sete_pontos_de_vantagem_sobre_o_ps.html Aximage]	1,387	w.PàF	32.5	w.PàF	9.2	9.0	39.1	10.2	6.6
26–30 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,070	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	10.0	8.0	39.0	9.0	5.0
22–30 Sep	Intercampus	1,013	w.PàF	32.9	w.PàF	8.8	7.9	0.5	0.5	1.7	37.2	10.5	4.3
29 Sep	name=TrackingPoll}}	200	w.PàF	31.8	w.PàF	8.1	7.1	40.3	12.7	8.5
26–29 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,008	w.PàF	32.1	w.PàF	8.4	7.9	38.4	13.2	6.3
25–29 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,010	w.PàF	33.0	w.PàF	11.0	8.0	39.0	9.0	6.0
24–29 Sep	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/legislativas2015/2015-10-01-Sondagem-PàF-passa-para-a-frente-com-5-pontos-de-vantagem Eurosondagem]	2,067	w.PàF	32.7	w.PàF	9.4	6.7	37.7	13.5	5.0
22–29 Sep	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/eleicoes/legislativas/detalhe/coligacao_com_41_e_ps_com_29_na_maior_sondagem_das_legislativas.html Marktest]	1,607	w.PàF	28.6	w.PàF	9.3	8.7	0.8	0.7	41.0	10.9	12.4
28 Sep	name=TrackingPoll}}	200	w.PàF	32.1	w.PàF	8.2	7.1	39.0	13.6	6.9
25–28 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,008	w.PàF	31.6	w.PàF	8.2	7.9	38.8	13.5	7.2
24–28 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,071	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	10.0	7.0	40.0	9.0	6.0
27 Sep	name=TrackingPoll}}	199	w.PàF	31.8	w.PàF	8.4	7.1	38.4	14.3	6.6
26–27 Sep	UCP–CESOP	3,302	w.PàF	32.0	w.PàF	9.0	9.0	1.0	1.0	38.0	10.0	6.0
24–27 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,025	w.PàF	32.1	w.PàF	9.1	7.5	37.9	13.4	5.8
23–27 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,075	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	9.0	7.0	41.0	9.0	7.0
26 Sep	Aximage{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	200	w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF	8.6	7.0	37.9	14.2	5.6
23–26 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,025	w.PàF	33.0	w.PàF	9.0	6.7	38.1	13.2	5.1
22–26 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	936	w.PàF	33.0	w.PàF	8.0	7.0	43.0	9.0	10.0
25 Sep	Aximage{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF	37.7	30.0	5.4
22–25 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,025	w.PàF	32.8	w.PàF	8.9	6.7	0.3	1.1	37.5	12.7	4.7
21–25 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,027	w.PàF	35.0	w.PàF	8.0	7.0	42.0	8.0	7.0
24 Sep	Aximage{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	w.PàF	32.6	w.PàF	37.7	29.7	5.1
21–24 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,024	w.PàF	32.3	w.PàF	9.2	6.1	1.1	37.0	14.3	4.7
20–24 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,046	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	9.0	7.0	41.0	9.0	7.0
18–24 Sep	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/eleicoes/legislativas/detalhe/coligacao_alarga_vantagem_face_ao_ps_para_59_pontos.html Aximage]	710	w.PàF	32.0	w.PàF	9.0	7.1	37.9	14.0	5.9
23 Sep	Aximage{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	100	w.PàF	33.4	w.PàF	7.6	6.5	37.0	15.5	3.6
20–23 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,017	w.PàF	32.9	w.PàF	7.8	6.0	37.9	15.4	5.0
19–23 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	891	w.PàF	35.0	w.PàF	9.0	8.0	40.0	8.0	5.0
17–23 Sep	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/legislativas2015/2015-09-25-Sondagem.-PS-e-coligacao-separados-por-05-pontos Eurosondagem]	1,548	w.PàF	36.0	w.PàF	10.1	5.0	1.5	1.9	35.5	10.0	0.5
22 Sep	Aximage{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	103	w.PàF	34.3	w.PàF	7.9	6.2	36.3	15.3	2.0
19–22 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,007	w.PàF	34.1	w.PàF	8.3	4.8	38.9	13.9	4.8
18–22 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	828	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	10.0	8.0	40.0	8.0	6.0
21 Sep	Aximage{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	w.PàF	34.7	w.PàF	35.9	29.4	1.2
18–21 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	1,005	w.PàF	35.7	w.PàF	7.3	4.4	38.9	13.7	3.2
17–21 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	738	w.PàF	35.0	w.PàF	8.0	7.0	40.0	10.0	5.0
20 Sep	Aximage{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	w.PàF	34.8	w.PàF	35.6	29.6	0.8
18–20 Sep	Intercampus{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	733	w.PàF	37.1	w.PàF	6.3	4.0	40.1	12.5	3.0
19 Sep	Aximage{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	w.PàF	34.9	w.PàF	35.6	29.5	0.7
16–19 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	613	w.PàF	35.0	w.PàF	8.0	7.0	40.0	10.0	5.0
18 Sep	Aximage{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	w.PàF	35.1	w.PàF	8.4	5.7	35.5	15.3	0.4
15–18 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	678	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	8.0	8.0	40.0	10.0	6.0
14–17 Sep	UCP–CESOP{{efn>name=TrackingPoll}}	647	w.PàF	34.0	w.PàF	7.0	8.0	41.0	10.0	7.0
13–17 Sep	Aximage	704	w.PàF	34.7	w.PàF	8.3	5.8	35.3	16.0	0.6
11–16 Sep	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2015-09-18-Sondagem.-PS-ganha-em-votos-mas-perde-em-mandatos Eurosondagem]	1,867	w.PàF	35.5	w.PàF	10.3	5.2	1.8	2.2	34.0	11.0	1.5
4–7 Sep	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/eleicoes/legislativas/detalhe/sondagem_ps_afunda_cinco_pontos_e_e_ultrapassado_pela_coligacao.html Aximage]	602	w.PàF	33.3	w.PàF	8.5	4.6	1.6	1.8	38.9	11.3	5.6
27 Aug–2 Sep	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2015-09-04-Sondagem-coligacao-volta-a-subir-e-PS-a-cair Eurosondagem]	1,040	w.PàF	36.0	w.PàF	10.4	4.6	1.7	2.3	35.0	10.0	1.0
29 Jul–4 Aug	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2015-08-07-Sondagem-PS-e-coligacao-separados-por-15-pontos Eurosondagem]	1,030	w.PàF	36.3	w.PàF	10.0	5.0	1.7	2.3	34.8	9.9	1.5
12–16 Jul	Aximage	607	w.PàF	38.0	w.PàF	7.5	4.0	1.3	1.4	37.8	10.0	0.2
2–7 Jul	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2015-07-10-Sondagem.-PS-dois-pontos-a-frente-da-coligacao-PSD-CDS Eurosondagem]	1,025	w.PàF	36.7	w.PàF	10.2	4.8	1.9	2.5	34.6	9.3	2.1
26 Jun–4 Jul	Intercampus	1,014	w.PàF	37.6	w.PàF	11.0	6.0	0.9	0.6	0.8	32.7	10.4	4.9
15–21 Jun	Pitagórica	523	w.PàF	33.5	w.PàF	10.1	3.6	1.3	1.6	36.4	13.5	2.9
13–16 Jun	[https://www.dn.pt/politica/interior/em-oito-meses-o-ps-de-costa-e-apanhado-pela-coligacao-4633073.html UCP–CESOP]	1,048	w.PàF	37.0	w.PàF	10.0	8.0	38.0	7.0	1.0
4–9 Jun	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2015-06-12-Sondagem.-PSD-e-CDS-reduzem-diferenca-face-ao-PS Eurosondagem]	1,030	w.PàF	36.9	w.PàF	10.5	4.5	2.0	2.7	33.3	10.1	3.6
31 May–4 Jun	Aximage	598	w.PàF	38.0	w.PàF	7.5	4.0	1.2	2.1	37.2	10.0	0.8
7–12 May	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2015-05-15-Sondagem-PS-cresce-mas-pouco.-Nao-ha-maioria-a-vista Eurosondagem]	1,021	w.PàF	38.1	w.PàF	10.3	4.8	1.8	2.5	33.6	8.9	4.5
7–10 May	Aximage	605	w.PàF	37.3	w.PàF	7.7	4.2	2.0	2.6	37.2	9.0	0.1
9–15 Apr	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/psd-e-o-que-mais-sobe-nas-intencoes-de-voto=f920333 Eurosondagem]	1,025	26.7	37.5	8.0	10.2	4.3	2.0	2.8	{{N/A}}	8.5	10.8
4–8 Apr	Aximage	602	30.5	36.9	6.0	9.2	3.5	1.7	3.8	{{N/A}}	8.4	6.4
5–10 Mar	[https://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/pais/2015-03-13-Popularidade-de-Cavaco-em-queda-PS-lidera-intencoes-de-voto Eurosondagem]	1,005	25.2	38.1	8.1	9.6	4.4	2.1	3.0	{{N/A}}	9.5	12.9
3–6 Mar	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/intencoes_de_voto_no_ps_caem_pelo_sexto_mes_e_psd_fica_abaixo_dos_30.html Aximage]	600	28.9	36.1	6.1	10.7	4.0	1.6	4.4	{{N/A}}	8.2	7.2
18–25 Feb	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/sondagem-psd-e-cds-coligados-conseguem-empate-tecnico-com-o-ps=f912820 Eurosondagem]^[1]	1,515	w.PàF	37.5	w.PàF	9.6	4.2	2.1	2.5	35.0	9.1	2.5
18–25 Feb	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/sondagem-psd-e-cds-coligados-conseguem-empate-tecnico-com-o-ps=f912820 Eurosondagem]^[2]	1,515	27.8	36.5	7.7	10.0	4.4	2.3	2.7	Did not exist	8.6	8.7
5–11 Feb	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/cds-e-o-que-mais-desce-marinho-e-pinto-o-que-mais-sobe=f910672 Eurosondagem]	1,015	26.7	38.1	6.9	9.0	4.0	2.2	3.0		10.1	11.4
4–8 Feb	Aximage	608	30.2	36.7	5.3	9.2	3.8	2.5	5.2		7.1	6.5
8–14 Jan	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/sondagem-psd-e-cds-aproximam-se-do-ps=f906582 Eurosondagem]	1,010	26.9	37.9	7.9	9.3	3.5	2.0	2.5		10.0	11.0
9–12 Jan	Aximage	601	30.9	36.9	4.7	7.7	3.5	3.0	5.2		8.1	6.0
2015
4–10 Dec	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/sondagem-ps-sobe-apesar-de-socrates=f902376 Eurosondagem]	1,036	25.2	37.5	7.3	10.1	3.3	1.7	2.2	Did not exist	12.7	12.3
1–4 Dec	Aximage	607	31.0	37.4	5.1	7.6	5.2	2.9	4.1		6.7	6.4
6–11 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,022	25.3	36.9	7.7	10.4	3.6	1.0	1.5		13.6	10.6
7–10 Nov	Aximage	603	31.1	38.5	5.2	7.9	6.0	2.1	2.1		7.1	7.4
11–13 Oct	UCP–CESOP	1,064	28.0	45.0	4.0	10.0	4.0	9.0	17.0
2–7 Oct	Eurosondagem	1,021	26.2	34.8	8.0	10.5	4.0	2.1	1.6		12.8	8.6
1–4 Oct	Aximage	609	27.4	40.2	6.1	9.2	7.7	1.1	8.3		12.8
4–9 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,011	28.0	33.0	7.5	10.7	4.3	3.3	1.7		Did not exist	11.5	5.0
31 Aug–3 Sep	Aximage	602	28.6	30.9	8.4	11.9	5.7	14.5	2.3
31 Jul–6 Aug	Eurosondagem	1,033	27.8	32.1	7.0	11.0	4.5	3.6	1.9			12.1	4.3
25–31 Jul	Pitagórica{{efn>name=Scenario/PSCosta}}	504	26.8	33.9	5.1	13.0	3.1	3.1	15.0			7.1
25–31 Jul	Pitagórica{{efn>name=Scenario/PSSeguro}}	504	28.1	30.0	6.9	12.7	4.2	3.5	14.6			1.9
3–9 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,014	27.5	32.5	6.6	11.1	4.9	4.0	2.0			11.4	5.0
4–7 Jul	Aximage	593	27.2	31.0	8.3	10.7	6.9	15.9	3.8
2–5 Jun	Eurosondagem	1,025	26.1	33.0	6.9	11.8	4.8	4.6	2.0			10.8	6.9
1–4 Jun	Aximage	608	24.9	32.0	7.8	13.0	6.0	12.7	7.1
30 May–1 Jun	Pitagórica{{efn>name=Scenario/PSCosta}}	506	27.5	35.2	6.2	13.6	4.4	3.3	9.8			7.7
30 May–1 Jun	Pitagórica{{efn>name=Scenario/PSSeguro}}	506	28.0	30.6	6.3	14.4	4.8	3.7	12.2			2.6
25 May 2014	[https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/europeias2014/ EP Election]	33.8%	w.AP	31.5	w.AP	12.7	4.6	7.1	2.2	27.7		14.3	3.8
19–24 May	Intercampus	4,004	28.7	29.1	2.4	11.4	5.4	Did not exist	23.0	0.4
14–22 May	Aximage	1,507	29.0	36.2	7.3	10.3	6.5		10.7	7.2
1–7 May	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/ps-tem-o-melhor-resultado-da-legislatura=f869253 Eurosondagem]	1,005	26.9	38.0	8.1	10.4	6.6		10.0	11.1
2–5 May	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/eleicoes/detalhe/ps_lidera_intencao_de_voto_nas_legislativas.html Aximage]	605	30.5	36.2	6.8	10.5	6.6		9.4	5.7
12–14 Apr	UCP–CESOP	1,117	30.0	36.0	4.0	12.0	7.0		11.0	6.0
9–12 Apr	Aximage	613	31.5	36.1	6.1	11.8	6.4		8.1	4.6
3–9 Apr	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/psd-e-cds-perdem-terreno=f865124 Eurosondagem]	1,011	25.2	37.3	8.1	10.9	7.5		11.0	12.1
25–29 Mar	Pitagórica	506	27.6	39.0	7.6	10.3	6.9		8.6	11.4
6–12 Mar	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/partidos-da-maioria-recuperam=f860697 Eurosondagem]	1,021	26.6	36.6	8.4	11.1	6.9		10.4	10.0
8–11 Mar	Aximage	587	33.3	36.8	5.7	11.7	5.4		7.1	3.5
24 Feb–1 Mar	Pitagórica	506	28.4	37.2	8.7	10.5	4.9		10.2	8.8
9–12 Feb	Aximage	604	31.4	38.1	5.4	9.7	5.7		9.7	6.7
6–12 Feb	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/ps-desce-pouco-psd-sobe-pouco=f855862 Eurosondagem]	1,025	25.6	36.9	7.7	10.5	7.0		12.3	11.3
20–24 Jan	Pitagórica	506	25.8	37.8	7.8	11.4	6.6		Did not exist	10.6		12.0
9–15 Jan	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/ps-sobe-e-partidos-do-governo-descem=f851080 Eurosondagem]	1,010	25.0	37.5	8.0	10.4	6.6			12.5		12.5
7–10 Jan	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/barometro_ps_reforca_intencoes_de_voto_e_psd_supera_os_30.html Aximage]	601	30.6	38.5	5.8	9.2	6.3			9.6		7.9
2014
10–15 Dec	Pitagórica	503	25.7	36.7	9.0	11.2	6.7	Was not polled	Did not exist	Did not exist	Did not exist	10.7	11.0
5–10 Dec	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/partidos-da-coligacao-aproximam-se-do-ps=f847226 Eurosondagem]	1,035	26.5	36.5	8.5	10.0	6.5					12.0	10.0
6–9 Dec	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/passos_coelho_pressiona_seguro_nas_intencoes_de_voto.html Aximage]	609	29.6	36.4	8.3	9.7	6.3					9.7	6.8
19–21 Nov	Marktest	800	25.6	35.6	1.5	17.2	6.5					13.6	10.0
6–9 Nov	Aximage	602	28.4	36.9	9.4	10.3	6.8					8.2	8.5
30 Oct–5 Nov	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/ps-sobe-em-novembro=f839984 Eurosondagem]	1,005	25.6	37.3	8.4	11.1	5.9					11.7	11.7
22–25 Oct	Marktest	803	26.2	35.8	2.3	16.6	5.5					13.6	9.6
19–22 Oct	Aximage	607	26.9	30.2	12.1	12.4	7.2					11.2	3.3
14–19 Oct	Pitagórica	506	23.7	36.7	8.6	13.2	6.6					11.2	13.0
2–8 Oct	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/sondagem-partidos-do-governo-sobem=f835114 Eurosondagem]	1,010	26.9	36.5	8.6	12.1	5.9					10.0	9.6
29 Sep 2013	Local Elections	52.6%	31.4	36.7	3.4	11.1	2.4	0.1				14.8	5.3
28–29 Sep	Intercampus	1,000	27.0	39.0	4.0	11.0	7.0	Was not polled				12.0	12.0
26–29 Sep	Aximage	609	30.2	34.5	10.3	10.4	5.6					9.0	4.3
17–19 Sep	Marktest	801	28.5	36.6	2.5	11.5	7.3					13.6	8.1
5–11 Sep	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/psd-e-o-partido-que-mais-sobe=f830159 Eurosondagem]	1,038	26.5	38.0	6.5	12.5	6.5					10.0	11.5
1–3 Sep	Aximage	609	28.0	35.3	7.6	11.8	6.6					10.7	7.3
25–31 Jul	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/partidos-do-governo-com-ligeira-descida=f824208 Eurosondagem]	1,020	24.4	37.4	7.7	12.5	7.5					10.5	13.0
27–29 Jul	Universidade Católica}}]	1,096	32.0	35.0	3.0	11.0	7.0					12.0	3.0
24–28 Jul	Pitagórica	507	24.1	34.6	8.1	13.1	8.7					11.4	10.5
16–18 Jul	Marktest	804	27.6	34.2	5.2	10.8	8.6					13.6	6.6
8–11 Jul	Aximage	603	28.0	37.4	5.8	10.5	6.7					11.6	9.4
5–10 Jul	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/popularidade-de-portas-e-passos-em-queda=f819977 Eurosondagem]	1,007	25.0	37.0	8.0	12.0	8.0					10.0	12.0
28 Jun–2 Jul	Pitagórica	503	23.7	33.9	9.1	13.2	8.9					11.2	10.2
4–7 Jun	Aximage	599	23.2	35.5	9.4	11.5	8.4					12.0	12.3
30 May–4 Jun	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/ps-e-pcp-ja-valem-50-por-cento-juntos=f812390 Eurosondagem]	1,028	24.8	36.9	7.7	13.0	8.0					9.6	12.1
27–30 May	Marktest	802	25.0	34.6	5.6	13.1	8.2					13.5	9.6
23–28 May	Pitagórica	506	25.4	32.7	9.5	12.6	9.4					10.4	7.3
7–10 May	Aximage	604	26.2	35.5	9.5	9.4	6.9					12.5	9.3
2–8 May	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/ps-ja-vale-mais-do-que-psd-e-cds-juntos=f806047 Eurosondagem]	1,009	25.9	36.0	8.4	12.1	8.8					8.8	10.1
17–20 Apr	Pitagórica	503	26.9	28.6	12.0	12.8	8.7					11.0	1.7
5–10 Apr	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/pcp-e-bloco-valem-mais-de-20-por-cento=f799799 Eurosondagem]	1,025	26.5	35.0	8.5	12.5	8.5					9.0	8.5
1–4 Apr	Aximage	601	25.3	32.6	9.4	12.0	7.8					12.9	7.3
19–24 Mar	Pitagórica	503	25.7	36.7	10.6	11.2	7.9					7.9	11.0
9–11 Mar	{{nowrap>Universidade Católica}}	949	28.0	31.0	5.0	12.0	8.0					16.0	3.0
4–6 Mar	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/psd_recupera_terreno_nas_intencoes_de_voto_e_esta_mais_proximo_do_ps.html Aximage]	607	25.1	31.6	12.1	12.2	7.1					11.9	6.5
28 Feb–5 Mar	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/cavaco-desce-na-popularidade=f792153 Eurosondagem]	1,022	27.0	35.2	9.0	12.1	8.0					8.7	8.2
20–24 Feb	Pitagórica	503	26.4	35.1	10.7	10.7	8.6					8.5	8.7
5–8 Feb	Aximage	602	29.1	32.0	8.7	11.5	6.3					12.4	2.9
30 Jan–5 Feb	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/psd-sobe-na-intencao-de-voto=f785752 Eurosondagem]	1,011	27.6	34.1	9.5	11.6	8.4					8.8	6.5
22–25 Jan	Pitagórica	504	28.6	33.8	10.2	12.0	8.0					7.4	5.2
15–21 Jan	Marktest	803	27.9	32.6	5.2	12.4	13.3					8.6	4.7
6–9 Jan	Aximage	603	26.3	32.9	10.3	11.8	7.4					11.3	6.6
3–8 Jan	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/psd-recupera-passos-nao=f778677 Eurosondagem]	1,010	26.9	34.3	9.6	10.3	8.8					10.1	7.4
2013
13–18 Dec	Pitagórica	511	29.0	34.6	11.4	11.2	8.4	Was not polled	Did not exist	Did not exist	Did not exist	5.4	5.6
5–11 Dec	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/comunistas-com-prenda-em-dezembro=f773883 Eurosondagem]	1,034	26.4	34.0	10.0	11.0	9.0					9.6	7.6
4–7 Dec	Aximage	609	26.8	32.9	8.0	11.0	7.6					13.7	6.1
9–16 Nov	Pitagórica	505	26.4	36.2	9.8	9.8	7.5					10.2	9.8
7–13 Nov	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/seguro-e-o-lider-mais-popular=f767422 Eurosondagem]	1,033	26.9	35.0	10.1	10.0	9.5					8.5	8.1
30 Oct–6 Nov}}	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php?template=SHOWNEWS_V2&id=589849 Aximage]	602	26.3	32.1	7.9	9.6	7.5					16.6	5.8
8–13 Oct	Pitagórica	503	29.5	34.1	8.3	9.1	7.2					11.8	4.6
4–9 Oct	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/psd-desce-mais-3-nas-intencoes-de-voto=f759377 Eurosondagem]	1,021	30.0	34.8	10.0	9.5	7.7					8.0	4.8
1–4 Oct	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php?template=SHOWNEWS_V2&id=583597 Aximage]	604	24.9	33.7	7.9	9.5	7.0					17.0	8.8
17–20 Sep	Marktest	805	20.2	29.6	5.2	10.1	8.6					26.3	9.4
15–17 Sep	[https://www.dn.pt/politica/interior/psd-cai-a-pique-mas-ps-nao-sobe-2779585.html UCP–CESOP]	1,132	24.0	31.0	7.0	13.0	11.0					14.0	7.0
10–13 Sep	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/sondagem-ps-ultrapassa-o-psd=f753241 Eurosondagem]	1,037	33.0	33.7	10.3	9.3	7.0					6.7	0.7
3–6 Sep	Aximage	600	33.3	35.4	7.1	7.7	5.3					11.2	2.1
9–14 Aug	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/ps-a-um-ponto-do-psd=f747352 Eurosondagem]	1,011	34.1	33.0	10.1	8.8	6.6					7.4	1.1
17–20 Jul	Marktest	803	26.7	25.8	4.4	9.9	6.9					26.3	0.9
5–10 Jul	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/direita-em-perda-esquerda-em-alta=f739356 Eurosondagem]	1,036	34.6	32.5	10.1	8.7	6.9					7.2	2.1
2–4 Jul	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php?template=SHOWNEWS_V2&id=566933 Aximage]	600	35.0	30.8	7.9	7.8	5.3					13.2	4.2
19–22 Jun	Marktest	800	31.3	29.2	2.8	9.5	5.4					21.8	2.1
7–12 Jun	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/esquerda-destaca-se-da-direita=f733085 Eurosondagem]	1,022	34.3	32.1	11.6	9.0	6.9					6.1	2.2
4–6 Jun	Aximage	600	36.6	28.2	7.5	10.1	5.0					12.6	8.4
26–28 May	[https://www.dn.pt/politica/interior/psd-e-ps-empatados-e-esquerda-de-novo-maioritaria-2591139.html UCP–CESOP]	1,366	36.0	33.0	6.0	9.0	9.0					7.0	3.0
22–24 May	Marktest	807	30.4	29.1	3.5	9.6	8.5					18.9	1.3
10–15 May	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/ps-encurta-a-diferenca-para-o-psd=f726966 Eurosondagem]	1,011	34.8	31.2	11.6	8.8	6.0					7.6	3.6
2–5 May	Aximage	600	36.3	28.9	6.2	9.7	4.3					14.6	7.4
17–21 Apr	Marktest	810	31.4	25.4	3.6	10.2	7.8					21.6	6.0
11–17 Apr	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/passos-e-governo-caem-seguro-e-ps-sobem=f720423 Eurosondagem]	1,036	35.3	30.5	10.7	9.1	6.4					8.0	4.8
3–5 Apr	Aximage	600	35.0	27.8	8.7	10.1	4.0					14.4	7.2
19–23 Mar	Marktest	802	36.5	20.5	5.2	7.6	6.3					23.9	16.0
8–13 Mar	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/psd-e-cds-reforcam-maioria=f712215 Eurosondagem]	1,021	36.0	29.6	12.0	8.5	6.9					7.0	6.4
5–7 Mar	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php?template=SHOWNEWS_V2&id=543709 Aximage]	600	36.2	31.4	6.5	9.2	2.9					13.8	4.8
14–22 Feb	Marktest	800	30.2	25.9	3.9	9.3	6.0					24.7	4.3
2–7 Feb	Eurosondagem	1,010	35.0	30.0	11.7	8.5	6.5					8.3	5.0
1–4 Feb	Aximage	600	37.5	30.3	8.9	8.8	2.8					11.7	7.2
17–22 Jan	Marktest	800	37.6	25.2	4.0	6.1	7.7					19.4	12.4
5–10 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,064	36.4	30.3	12.1	7.7	6.4					7.1	6.1
3–6 Jan	Aximage	600	37.9	30.0	9.3	10.7	2.5					9.6	7.9
2012
7–13 Dec	Eurosondagem	1,033	36.0	30.0	12.5	8.8	6.4	Was not polled	Did not exist	Did not exist	Did not exist	6.3	6.0
5–8 Dec	Aximage	600	39.5	27.7	9.1	11.3	3.3					9.1	11.8
15–19 Nov	Marktest	804	45.4	19.7	5.0	7.9	4.1					17.9	25.7
10–15 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,025	36.3	29.6	12.1	9.0	6.1					6.9	6.7
7–10 Nov	Aximage	600	41.2	26.8	9.5	10.6	3.5					8.4	14.4
20–25 Oct	Eurosondagem	1,032	36.9	29.2	12.5	8.8	6.3					6.3	7.7
18–22 Oct	Marktest	809	41.6	19.7	5.3	10.5	4.2					18.7	21.9
3–5 Oct	Aximage	600	41.1	26.0	10.2	7.6	5.0					10.1	15.1
22–27 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,036	39.3	28.2	12.1	8.2	5.3					6.9	11.1
20–23 Sep	Marktest	804	47.1	23.3	6.8	4.0	2.7					16.1	23.8
10–11 Sep	UCP–CESOP	1,457	43.0	33.0	6.0	7.0	6.0					5.0	10.0
7–10 Sep	Aximage	600	40.9	25.1	7.1	9.0	3.2					14.7	15.8
26–30 Aug	Eurosondagem	1,025	39.6	26.9	12.5	8.4	5.5					7.1	12.7
14–19 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,022	40.0	26.3	13.1	8.0	5.1					7.5	13.7
5–8 Jul	Aximage	600	42.0	24.0	10.3	7.5	5.9					10.3	18.0
26–28 Jun	Eurosondagem	1,010	40.8	25.0	13.6	7.7	4.8					8.1	15.8
5 Jun 2011	General Election	58.0%	38.7	28.0	11.7	7.9	5.2	0.4				7.7	10.6

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 116 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of the Republic.

116 seats needed for majority
Date	Polling Firm	PSD	PS	CDS–PP	CDU	BE	MPT	L/TDA	PDR	PàF{{efn\|name=PSD/CDS–PP	Others
Date	Polling Firm										Others
4 Oct 2015	General Election	w.PàF	86	w.PàF	17	19	0	0	0	107	1
4 Oct	[https://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/especiais/legislativas-2015/2015-10-04-Coligacao-PSD-CDS-vence-eleicoes-Bloco-ultrapassa-CDU Eurosondagem]	w.PàF	84−90	w.PàF	15−18	16−19	0	0−1	0−1	100−108	0
4 Oct	Intercampus	w.PàF	77−89	w.PàF	12−20	15−23	0	0−1	0	106−118	0−2
4 Oct	UCP–CESOP	w.PàF	80−88	w.PàF	13−17	16−20	0	0−1	0	108−116	0
Exit polls
24–29 Sep	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/legislativas2015/2015-10-01-Sondagem-PàF-passa-para-a-frente-com-5-pontos-de-vantagem Eurosondagem]	w.PàF	89−95	w.PàF	19−21	10−15	0	0	0	102−108	0−1
26–27 Sep	UCP–CESOP	w.PàF	78−95	w.PàF	15−20	12−17	0	0−1	0	99−114	0−1
22–26 Sep	[https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/647869157950779393 UCP–CESOP]	w.PàF	89	w.PàF	16	8	0	0	1	117	0
21–25 Sep	[https://twitter.com/twittprognosis/status/647725287678083072 UCP–CESOP]	w.PàF	91	w.PàF	16	8	0	1	1	113	0
17–23 Sep	[https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/eleicoes/legislativas/detalhe/eurosondagem_ps_continua_a_frente_mas_perde_terreno_para_a_coligacao.html Eurosondagem]	w.PàF	97−102	w.PàF	20−22	5−7	0	1	0−2	100−103	0
11–16 Sep	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2015-09-18-Sondagem.-PS-ganha-em-votos-mas-perde-em-mandatos Eurosondagem]	w.PàF	95−101	w.PàF	20−22	6−9	0	1	2	99−102	0
7–12 May	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2015-05-15-Sondagem-PS-cresce-mas-pouco.-Nao-ha-maioria-a-vista Eurosondagem]	w.PàF	103	w.PàF	21	6	0	1	2	97	0
18–25 Feb	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/sondagem-psd-e-cds-coligados-conseguem-empate-tecnico-com-o-ps=f912820 Eurosondagem]^[1]	w.PàF	100−105	w.PàF	18−21	4	0	1−2	2	98−103	0
18–25 Feb	[https://expresso.sapo.pt/sondagem-psd-e-cds-coligados-conseguem-empate-tecnico-com-o-ps=f912820 Eurosondagem]^[2]	78−87	99−105	13−17	20−21	4−6	0	2−3	2−3		0
2015
5 Jun 2011	General Election	108	74	24	16	8	0				0

Notes

{{notes
| refs ={{efn
| name = DataAverage
| This poll provides data ranges and/or approximations. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.
}}{{efn
| name = TrackingPoll
| Tracking poll.
}}{{efn
| name = PSD/CDS–PP
| The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS–PP) will contest the election in a joint coalition called Portugal Ahead (Portugal à Frente).
}}{{efn
| name = Scenario/PSCosta
| Hypothesized scenario with António Costa as PS candidate.
}}{{efn
| name = Scenario/PSSeguro
| Hypothesized scenario with António José Seguro as PS candidate.
}}
}}

References

1. ^¹Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election in a coalition.
2. ^¹Hypothesized scenario if PSD and CDS-PP contest the election separately.

External links

Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker
ERC - Official publication of polls

2 : Opinion polling for elections|Opinion polling in Portugal

随便看

开放百科全书收录14589846条英语、德语、日语等多语种百科知识，基本涵盖了大多数领域的百科知识，是一部内容自由、开放的电子版国际百科全书。