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词条 Opinion polling for the 2019 Finnish parliamentary election
释义

  1. Graphical summary

     By party 

  2. Poll results

     Seats 

  3. Preferred Prime Minister polling

  4. Notes

In the run up to the 2019 parliamentary elections in Finland, various organizations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Finland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 19 April 2015, to the present day.

Graphical summary

By party

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The table uses the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if that date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

The Sipilä Cabinet is composed of the top three parties from the previous election: Centre (Kesk), National Coalition (Kok) and Finns (PS) parties. But after the split of the Finns Party, Blue Reform (Sin) took the party's place in the Sipilä Cabinet.

DatePolling Firm KESK KOK PS SDP VIHR VAS SFP KD SINOthersLeadGov.Opp.
6 Mar–26 Mar [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10711554 Taloustutkimus] 14.4 15.8 15.120.1 13.0 9.8 4.3 3.5 0.9 3.14.3 (31.1) (65.8)
18 Feb–15 Mar [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000006041160.html Kantar TNS] 14.3 18.1 11.121.0 14.0 8.9 4.4 4.2 1.2 2.82.9 (33.6) (63.6)
8 MarThe Sipilä Cabinet announces its resignation due to failed health care reform
6 Feb–5 Mar [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10675599 Taloustutkimus] 14.1 16.2 13.321.3 13.7 8.9 4.7 3.5 1.8 2.55.1 32.1 65.4
18 Feb–3 Mar [https://www.aamulehti.fi/a/201490338 Tietoykkönen] 14.1 18.1 11.221.3 13.2 9.0 4.1 4.1 2.3 2.63.2 34.5 62.9
14 Jan–14 Feb [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000006008351.html Kantar TNS] 14.7 18.6 11.420.8 13.6 8.7 4.3 4.0 1.0 2.92.2 34.3 62.8
14 Jan–5 Feb [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10633111 Taloustutkimus] 15.6 17.3 12.020.1 14.6 8.6 4.0 3.6 1.4 2.72.8 34.3 62.9
14–28 Jan [https://www.aamulehti.fi/a/201435395 Tietoykkönen] 14.4 19.7 9.921.0 13.0 8.9 4.2 4.3 2.1 2.51.3 36.2 61.3
13 Dec–11 Jan [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005967576.html Kantar TNS] 15.6 19.5 9.720.9 12.9 9.4 4.3 4.0 1.1 2.61.4 36.2 61.2
10 Dec–8 Jan [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10588026 Taloustutkimus] 16.1 19.6 10.221.2 13.6 9.5 2.5 4.2 1.0 2.11.6 36.7 61.2
2018
5–18 Dec [https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/074e55f6-9bdf-41fe-8bb9-7774f58a6697 Tietoykkönen] 15.5 19.6 9.720.7 12.9 9.1 4.1 3.9 1.8 2.71.1 36.9 60.4
13 Nov–12 Dec [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005933593.html Kantar TNS] 15.6 19.4 8.621.4 13.4 9.6 4.4 4.1 1.2 2.32.0 36.2 61.5
12 Nov–4 Dec [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10540626 Taloustutkimus] 17.0 19.1 8.121.5 13.9 8.5 4.0 4.1 1.5 2.32.4 37.6 60.1
14–23 Nov [https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/54bb6f61-a1a3-4e85-9ca2-a83099784e05 Tietoykkönen] 15.1 19.8 8.421.4 13.6 9.3 4.5 3.7 2.2 2.01.6 37.1 60.9
15 Oct–12 Nov [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005901149.html Kantar TNS] 15.4 19.7 8.722.4 12.5 9.7 4.4 4.0 1.2 2.02.7 36.3 61.7
3 Oct–6 Nov [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10496137 Taloustutkimus] 16.5 20.2 9.822.7 11.3 9.2 4.3 3.5 1.1 1.42.5 37.8 60.8
3 NovPekka Haavisto is elected as the interim leader of the Green League
12–30 Oct [https://aamulehti.fi/a/201281750 Tietoykkönen] 15.2 19.9 7.722.0 12.9 9.5 4.2 3.8 2.3 2.52.1 37.4 60.1
24 OctTouko Aalto announces his resignation from the Green League's leadership
17 Sep–11 Oct [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005865488.html Kantar TNS] 15.7 19.6 9.122.0 12.0 9.8 4.4 3.8 1.4 2.22.4 36.7 61.1
10 Sep–2 Oct [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10436852 Taloustutkimus] 17.6 18.9 9.322.6 11.6 9.8 3.7 4.1 1.1 1.33.7 37.6 61.1
14–27 Sep [https://www.aamulehti.fi/uutiset/uusi-kannatuskysely-julki-vihreiden-alamaki-jatkuu-yha-touko-aallon-sijainen-maria-ohisalo-viime-kesa-oli-kaannekohta-201223416/ Tietoykkönen] 15.1 19.9 7.922.2 12.3 9.5 4.3 3.9 2.5 2.42.3 37.5 60.1
20 Aug–14 Sep [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005832925.html Kantar TNS] 15.5 19.7 8.721.4 12.9 9.6 4.5 3.9 1.6 2.21.7 36.8 61.0
13 Aug–4 Sep [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10387592 Taloustutkimus] 17.8 19.0 9.420.3 12.6 9.1 4.3 3.5 1.6 2.41.3 38.4 59.2
13–25 Aug [https://www.aamulehti.fi/uutiset/kannatuskysely-sdpn-antti-rinne-alkaa-jo-nayttaa-paaministerilta-ero-kokoomukseen-venyy-201168929/ Tietoykkönen] 15.5 19.8 8.021.9 13.1 9.1 4.2 3.7 2.1 2.62.1 37.4 60.0
16 Jul–16 Aug [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005800045.html Kantar TNS] 15.5 20.2 7.921.7 13.7 9.6 4.3 4.1 1.2 2.01.5 36.9 61.3
9 Jul–7 Aug [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10343087 Taloustutkimus] 17.8 19.8 8.721.2 13.6 7.7 4.3 3.8 0.8 2.31.4 38.4 59.3
11 Jun–12 Jul [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005760310.html Kantar TNS] 15.3 20.2 7.822.1 13.2 9.6 4.3 4.2 1.3 2.01.9 36.8 61.2
6 Jun–3 Jul [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10287615 Taloustutkimus] 16.6 19.7 10.320.3 13.9 8.6 3.3 3.6 1.1 2.60.6 37.4 60.0
6–26 Jun [https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/201806282201041161_pi.shtml Tietoykkönen] 15.9 19.7 7.820.2 13.9 9.4 4.6 3.9 2.6 2.00.5 38.2 59.8
14 May–10 Jun [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005718665.html Kantar TNS] 15.8 19.7 8.021.6 13.5 9.2 4.5 3.9 1.7 2.11.9 37.3 60.7
2 May–5 Jun [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10240365#start=252 Taloustutkimus] 17.6 19.3 8.320.0 14.4 8.9 3.9 3.4 1.7 2.50.7 38.6 58.9
18–31 May [https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/201806032200988376_pi.shtml Tietoykkönen] 15.1 19.5 7.921.2 13.1 9.0 4.8 4.3 2.5 2.61.7 37.1 60.3
16 Apr–11 May [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005682873.html Kantar TNS] 15.7 20.5 7.721.2 14.2 8.7 4.4 3.8 1.7 2.10.7 37.9 60.0
19 Apr–2 May Tietoykkönen 15.9 19.5 8.021.8 13.2 8.7 4.6 4.0 2.1 2.22.3 37.5 60.3
3–26 Apr [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10187200 Taloustutkimus] 17.020.2 8.5 20.0 14.9 9.1 3.7 3.3 1.5 1.80.2 38.7 59.5
19 Mar–12 Apr [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005645553.html Kantar TNS] 15.7 20.6 8.121.4 14.0 8.9 4.2 3.5 1.6 2.00.8 37.9 60.1
1–27 Mar [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10136813 Taloustutkimus] 16.321.5 9.2 20.2 14.2 9.0 3.5 3.3 1.5 1.31.3 39.3 59.4
16–26 Mar Tietoykkönen 16.1 19.9 8.221.0 13.3 8.7 4.4 3.9 2.0 2.51.1 38.0 59.5
19 Feb–15 Mar [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005608179.html Kantar TNS] 15.921.1 8.5 20.8 14.5 8.5 4.1 3.2 1.4 2.00.3 38.4 59.6
7–28 Feb [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10096785 Taloustutkimus] 17.0 20.0 8.521.0 14.5 8.9 2.9 3.3 1.6 2.31.0 38.6 59.1
14–26 Feb Tietoykkönen 15.520.5 8.7 19.6 13.6 8.8 4.8 3.9 2.3 2.30.9 38.3 59.4
22 Jan–15 Feb [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005577104.html Kantar TNS] 16.321.7 8.6 19.0 14.4 9.1 4.2 3.4 1.3 2.02.7 39.3 58.7
28 Dec–6 Feb [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10063466 Taloustutkimus] 17.420.8 9.6 18.7 14.0 8.1 4.6 3.2 1.6 2.02.1 39.8 58.2
19–29 Jan Tietoykkönen 15.420.9 8.2 19.2 14.5 8.6 4.6 3.9 2.7 2.01.7 39.0 59.0
28 JanSauli Niinistö wins the presidential election
12 Dec–18 Jan [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005546924.html Kantar TNS] 15.621.9 8.1 19.0 15.5 8.8 4.4 3.4 1.5 1.82.9 39.0 59.2
2017
29 Nov–27 Dec [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9996681 Taloustutkimus] 17.819.8 8.6 17.8 14.0 8.8 4.6 4.0 2.3 2.32.0 39.9 57.8
8–18 Dec Tietoykkönen 16.220.8 7.8 20.1 13.7 9.0 4.8 4.1 1.8 1.70.7 38.7 59.5
14 Nov–10 Dec [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005488961.html Kantar TNS] 14.822.2 8.0 19.0 15.4 9.3 4.4 3.3 1.6 2.03.2 38.6 59.4
1–28 Nov [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9955728 Taloustutkimus] 17.422.3 8.4 19.7 14.2 8.0 3.5 3.6 1.1 1.82.6 40.8 57.4
16 Oct–13 Nov [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005455466.html Kantar TNS] 15.121.4 8.7 19.0 15.7 8.8 4.4 3.3 1.6 2.02.4 38.1 59.9
4–31 Oct [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9911028 Taloustutkimus] 17.422.8 6.9 18.4 14.0 9.0 4.9 3.4 1.3 1.94.4 41.5 56.6
18 Sep–14 Oct [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005417380.html Kantar TNS] 15.421.9 9.3 18.1 16.1 8.2 4.4 3.3 1.3 2.03.8 38.6 59.4
11 Sep–3 Oct [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9865602 Taloustutkimus] 15.821.7 9.9 17.3 16.6 8.3 3.5 3.9 1.5 1.54.4 39.0 59.5
21 Aug–19 Sep Kantar TNS 16.121.1 9.2 17.8 16.7 7.9 4.5 3.2 1.3 2.23.3 38.5 59.3
21 Aug–5 Sep [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9818447 Taloustutkimus] 16.220.8 10.3 15.6 17.8 8.2 4.5 3.3 1.4 1.93.0 38.4 59.7
17 Jul–18 Aug Kantar TNS 17.320.7 7.0 17.3 17.5 8.4 4.5 3.5 1.7 2.13.2 39.7 58.2
24 Jul–15 Aug [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9779594 Taloustutkimus] 17.320.8 8.8 15.9 17.6 7.7 4.8 3.7 1.6 1.83.2 39.7 58.5
26 Jun–18 Jul [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9729958 Taloustutkimus] 16.720.4 8.1 18.5 16.0 9.2 4.7 3.9 0.7 1.81.9 37.8 60.4
19 Jun–14 Jul Kantar TNS 16.421.0 6.3 19.6 15.5 8.9 4.4 3.3 2.5 2.11.4 39.9 58.0
13–20 Jun [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9684222 Taloustutkimus] 17.021.3 9.7 17.1 15.1 8.0 4.0 3.7 2.3 1.84.2 40.6 57.6
17 JunTouko Aalto wins the leadership of the Green League
22 May–16 Jun Kantar TNS 16.821.2 6.1 19.0 14.9 8.6 4.3 3.3 3.9 1.92.2 41.9 56.2
DatePolling Firm KESK KOK PS SDP VIHR VAS SFP KDOthersLeadGov.Opp.
13 JunThe Finns Party splits and Blue Reform continues working in the Sipilä Cabinet
12 Jun–13 Jun Tietoykkönen 17.020.2 10.4 17.8 14.1 9.1 5.5 4.2 1.72.4 47.6 50.7
10 JunJussi Halla-aho wins the leadership of the Finns Party
10 May–6 Jun [https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9654431 Taloustutkimus] 18.420.5 9.0 17.7 15.1 8.8 4.8 3.7 2.02.1 47.9 50.1
24 Apr–19 May Kantar TNS 17.720.6 9.4 18.7 14.3 8.6 4.6 3.7 2.41.9 47.7 49.9
10 Apr–9 May Taloustutkimus 18.421.1 9.6 18.6 14.6 7.7 4.5 3.6 1.92.5 49.1 49.0
9 AprFinnish municipal elections were held
16 Jan–11 Feb TNS Gallup 19.8 18.4 9.121.6 11.1 9.1 4.8 3.5 2.61.8 47.3 50.1
19 Dec–11 Jan TNS Gallup 19.9 18.7 8.621.7 12.1 8.5 4.4 3.6 2.51.8 47.2 50.3
2016
14 Nov–08 Dec TNS Gallup 20.8 18.4 9.9 20.8 11.2 8.2 4.6 3.5 2.60 49.1 48.3
2–29 Nov Taloustutkimus 20.4 18.9 8.521.1 12.6 8.6 4.0 3.6 2.30.7 47.8 49.9
17 Oct–11 Nov TNS Gallup20.9 18.6 10.1 20.4 11.6 7.9 4.6 3.5 2.40.5 49.6 48.0
5 Oct–1 Nov Taloustutkimus 19.6 18.8 8.521.2 13.6 8.7 4.0 3.4 2.21.6 47.1 50.9
19 Sep–14 Oct TNS Gallup 20.9 17.7 9.721.3 11.8 7.9 4.7 3.5 2.40.4 48.3 49.2
12 Sep–04 Oct Taloustutkimus 20.5 17.1 9.2 20.5 14.0 8.8 4.3 3.8 1.80 46.8 51.4
22 Aug–15 Sep TNS Gallup20.9 17.9 9.6 20.2 12.6 8.6 4.6 3.3 2.30.7 48.4 49.3
15 Aug–06 Sep Taloustutkimus20.7 17.7 8.4 20.0 13.6 9.3 4.7 3.6 2.00.7 46.8 51.2
18 Jul–18 Aug TNS Gallup20.6 17.3 9.5 19.1 12.9 9.6 4.8 3.7 2.51.5 47.4 50.1
11 Jul–09 Aug Taloustutkimus21.8 17.6 7.6 18.9 13.7 9.8 4.3 4.3 2.02.9 47.0 50.8
20 Jun–15 Jul TNS Gallup21.1 17.8 9.5 18.7 13.3 9.0 4.9 3.4 2.32.4 48.4 49.3
08 Jun–05 Jul Taloustutkimus21.1 18.6 8.6 18.2 14.1 9.2 4.3 3.6 2.32.5 48.3 49.4
16 May–16 Jun TNS Gallup20.9 17.0 9.1 20.6 13.6 8.2 4.7 3.7 2.20.3 47.0 50.8
12 JunAnna-Maja Henriksson wins the leadership of the Swedish People's Party
11 JunPetteri Orpo wins the leadership of the National Coalition Party
9 May–7 Jun Taloustutkimus20.2 17.7 9.0 20.1 14.8 8.3 4.2 3.5 2.20.1 46.9 50.9
6 JunLi Andersson wins the leadership of the Left Alliance
12–14 May TNS Gallup 20.7 17.7 9.322.0 11.4 9.0 4.3 3.4 2.21.3 47.7 50.1
4 Apr–3 May Taloustutkimus 20.4 17.0 8.521.5 13.5 8.5 4.5 3.6 2.51.1 45.9 51.6
14 Mar–11 Apr TNS Gallup 20.6 17.1 9.721.7 11.7 8.7 4.4 3.7 2.41.1 47.4 50.2
7–30 Mar Taloustutkimus21.7 17.1 9.5 20.3 12.5 8.3 4.7 3.6 2.31.4 48.3 49.4
15 Feb–11 Mar TNS Gallup21.5 17.4 10.2 21.4 10.9 8.3 4.5 3.5 2.30.1 49.1 48.6
3 Feb–1 Mar Taloustutkimus 20.7 16.9 9.022.9 10.7 8.9 4.5 3.9 2.52.2 46.6 50.9
18 Jan–14 Feb TNS Gallup21.4 18.0 9.9 21.2 10.8 8.5 4.3 3.7 2.20.2 49.3 48.5
11 Jan–2 Feb Taloustutkimus 20.9 17.3 9.821.5 12.3 8.6 4.1 3.4 2.10.6 48.0 49.9
14 Dec–14 Jan TNS Gallup 19.7 17.9 9.622.8 11.1 7.9 4.5 4.2 2.33.1 47.2 50.5
2015
7–29 Dec Taloustutkimus 21.4 18.7 8.922.7 11.7 7.3 3.9 3.4 2.01.3 49.0 49.0
16 Nov–10 Dec TNS Gallup 20.9 17.7 10.821.1 11.3 8.4 4.3 3.5 2.00.2 49.4 48.6
9 Nov–1 Dec Taloustutkimus21.6 18.3 8.9 21.0 12.6 8.1 4.6 3.5 1.40.6 48.8 49.8
19 Oct–12 Nov TNS Gallup21.6 18.4 11.0 19.6 11.6 8.0 4.3 3.5 2.02.0 51.0 47.0
12 Oct–3 Nov Taloustutkimus21.7 18.3 9.8 20.7 12.2 7.4 4.4 3.4 2.11.0 49.8 48.1
14 Sep–16 Oct TNS Gallup22.2 17.7 11.4 18.3 11.5 8.6 4.4 3.9 2.03.9 51.3 46.7
7 Sep–6 Oct Taloustutkimus21.7 18.0 10.7 18.3 12.7 8.3 4.8 4.0 1.53.7 50.4 48.1
10 Aug–10 Sep TNS Gallup22.3 18.0 15.6 15.0 11.1 7.8 4.8 3.5 1.94.3 55.9 42.2
10 Aug–1 Sep Taloustutkimus23.0 18.9 15.0 14.4 12.4 7.6 4.2 2.9 1.64.1 56.9 41.5
28 AugSari Essayah wins the leadership of the Christian Democrats
13 Jul–7 Aug TNS Gallup23.2 17.6 16.7 14.2 11.4 7.2 4.7 3.1 1.95.6 57.5 40.6
7 Jul–4 Aug Taloustutkimus23.1 18.2 15.6 14.5 12.7 7.8 3.9 2.7 1.54.9 56.9 41.6
15 Jun–9 Jul TNS Gallup21.9 18.2 17.6 14.7 9.8 7.9 4.5 3.3 2.13.7 57.7 40.2
3 Jun–1 Jul Taloustutkimus22.7 17.3 15.6 14.6 11.5 8.4 4.5 3.4 2.05.4 55.6 42.4
18 May–11 Jun TNS Gallup21.0 18.5 18.0 14.8 10.0 7.8 4.5 3.2 2.22.5 57.5 40.4
4 May–2 Jun Taloustutkimus23.1 16.7 17.5 15.0 10.5 7.5 4.5 3.1 2.15.6 57.3 40.6
20 Apr–15 May TNS Gallup21.1 18.0 19.2 15.1 9.3 6.8 4.6 3.4 2.51.9 58.3 39.2
19 Apr 2015 Election Results21.1 18.2 17.7 16.5 8.5 7.1 4.9 3.5 2.52.9 57.0 40.5

Seats

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 101 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Finnish Parliament.

101 seats needed for majority
DatePolling Firm KESK KOK PS SDP VIHR VAS SFP KD SINOthers
26 Mar 2019Counted based on six most recent polls. Åland's single MP is not included.|group=note}}354022472716741
5 Mar 2019Counted based on six most recent polls. Åland's single MP is not included.|group=note}}36412149261574
5 Feb 2019Counted based on six most recent polls. Åland's single MP is not included.|group=note}}383920492616731
10 Jan 2019Counted based on six most recent polls. Åland's single MP is not included.|group=note}}42431547251575
2015 Election-4937383415129501

Preferred Prime Minister polling

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister.

DatePolling Firm Juha Sipilä Petteri Orpo Antti Rinne Pekka Haavisto Touko Aalto Ville Niinistö Jussi Halla-aho Timo Soini Li Andersson Paavo Väyrynen Anna-Maja Henriksson Sampo Terho Sari Essayah
25 Mar–2 Apr 2019 [https://www.aamulehti.fi/a/20ca986d-8360-43fa-b666-7526f981203c Taloustutkimus] 10 12 14 21 8 7 2 1 3
27 Mar 2019 [https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000006049242.html Kantar TNS] 14 16 15 22 9 5
17 Feb 2019 [https://www.yrittajat.fi/uutiset/604030-tuore-gallup-pekka-haavisto-suosikki-paaministeriksi-ja-haneen-luotetaan-eniten Kantar TNS] 10 15 12 18 9 8 1
5 Jan 2019 [https://www.aamulehti.fi/a/201386721 Taloustutkimus] 13 16 12 22 5 5 1 1 4
12-17 Jan 2018 [https://www.mtv.fi/uutiset/kotimaa/artikkeli/is-petteri-orpo-suosituin-paaministeriksi-toisena-yllatysnimi-missa-on-antti-rinne/6751064#gs.RqTUxIQ Kantar TNS] 12 17 8 3 9 13 2
7 Nov 2017 Taloustutkimus 15 25 8 8 7 12
28–29 Jun 2017 Taloustutkimus 21 19 11 4 13 6 1 3
19–28 Jun 2017 [https://www.mtv.fi/uutiset/kotimaa/artikkeli/uutissuomalainen-petteri-orpo-suositumpi-paaministeriksi-kuin-juha-sipila/6488654 Taloustutkimus] 26.4 30.6 15.3 8.3 8.3 6.9
19–31 Dec 2016 Taloustutkimus 25.4 19.7 15.5 22.5 7.0 7.0 2.8

Notes

2 : Opinion polling for future elections|Opinion polling in Finland

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