“Proposed referendum on the Brexit withdrawal agreement”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

A referendum on the Brexit withdrawal agreement, also referred to as a "second referendum"{{efn|After the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. A few commentators, such as New Statesman political editor Stephen Bush, prefer third referendum, counting both the 2016 referendum and the 1975 United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum.^[1]}} or a "people's vote",{{efn|People's Vote is the name of a pressure group. For this reason, some broadcasters avoid the term or prefer "so-called people's vote"}} has been proposed by a number of politicians and pressure groups as a way to break the deadlock in Parliament surrounding the meaningful vote on the Brexit deal.

In the immediate aftermath of the 2016 referendum, some groups (chiefly Remain campaigners) demanded the referendum be re-run, citing alleged data misuse and campaign violations by Leave groups. Following the invocation of Article 50 to begin Brexit negotiations, these proposals morphed into a variety of different referendum choices with either two or three options, typically between "Remain a member of the EU" and "Accept the negotiated withdrawal agreement", sometimes with an additional "Leave the EU with no deal" option.

The most widely discussed proposal has been a referendum between "Remain" and "Accept the deal", promoted by the People's Vote pressure group. {{As of|2019|2|26}}, this is the official position of the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party of England and Wales, as well as the breakaway Independent Group of MPs. The Labour Party has announced that it will support such a referendum if Labour-proposed amendments to the EU withdrawal agreement are defeated, while the Scottish National Party has voted in Parliament in favour of a second vote. The Conservative Party are opposed to any referendum.^[2]

Support

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party went into the 2017 United Kingdom general election campaigning in favour of a second referendum, and a minority of pro-European rebels from Labour and the Conservatives also spoke in favour of it. These allied in April 2018 into the People's Vote campaign group.^[3] After several cabinet ministers resigned in protest at the Chequers statement setting out the Government's position in the Brexit negotiations, Conservative MP Justine Greening proposed a three-way referendum, using the supplementary vote system in an attempt to avoid vote splitting.^[4]

The Trades Union Congress, closely allied with Labour, said at its 2018 conference that it would declare in favour of a second referendum if the government failed to get "the deal that working people need".^[5] On 25 September 2018, delegates at the Labour party conference voted in favour of a motion that if Labour did not support Theresa May's deal, and if subsequent attempts to call another general election failed, the party should explore all options, including a second referendum.^[6] Some observers saw those conditions as fulfilled by the defeat of the meaningful vote on the 15 January 2019 and the vote of no confidence in May held the following day. However, the Labour leadership did not make any commitments to a referendum at that time.^[7] In early December 2018, the Financial Times reported that Leave groups had also started preparing for another referendum.^[8]

On 18 February 2019, seven pro-European MPs resigned from the Labour Party to form the The Independent Group (TIG). Over the following days, another Labour MP and three Conservative Party MPs joined them. All eleven support a referendum as proposed by the People's Vote group.^[9]

The following week, the Labour Party announced that it would put forward its own second referendum amendment if its attempts to safeguard workers' rights, Single Market access and Customs Union membership fails.^[10]

Opinion polling

Polling companies have asked questions based on a hypothetical future referendum since the immediate aftermath of the 2016 referendum. For most of 2016 and 2017, public opinion was consistently against another referendum and in the event one was called, polling suggested the Leave option would win again. As Brexit negotiations continued however, the Leave lead consistently slipped and public support for another referendum grew. {{As of|February 2019}}, no poll in the Britain Elects poll-tracker has shown a lead for Leave since April 2018, and political scientist John Curtice has noted "a modest but discernible softening of the Leave vote".^[11]^[12]

Polling which asks whether a further referendum should be held has shown a noticeable influence on how the question is phrased. In general a "second referendum" is less popular than a "public vote" or similar descriptor.^[13]

After the scale of Conservative rebellion to the Chequers statement became clear, some polls asked a three-way preference between "Remain", "Deal" and "No deal". The results in this case depend to a great degree on the choice of voting system – a first-past-the-post system for example might see a large Remain win due to vote splitting between the two Leave options.^[14]

Notes

References

1. ^{{cite news|url=https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/01/what-would-happen-if-there-was-second-eu-referendum|title=What would happen if there was a second EU referendum?|first=Stephen|last=Bush|accessdate=12 January 2018|date=26 February 2019|newspaper=New Statesman}}
2. ^{{cite news|url=https://www.ft.com/content/dc4bcc06-1a46-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21|title=Where parliament’s warring tribes stand on what next for Brexit|date=17 January 2019|accessdate=26 February 2019}}
3. ^{{cite news | last = Staff writer | title = Brexit: 'People's Vote' campaign group launched | url = https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43774200 | work = BBC News | date = 15 April 2018 | access-date = 26 February 2019}}
4. ^{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/back-second-brexit-vote-says-conservative-mp-justine-greening|title=Justine Greening endorses second Brexit referendum |date=16 July 2018|accessdate=26 February 2019|first1=Dan|last1=Sabbagh|first2=Peter|last2=Walker|newspaper=The Guardian}}
5. ^{{cite news|title=Brexit: TUC issues new EU referendum warning to May|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45464115|date=8 September 2018|website=BBC News}}
6. ^{{cite news|url=https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/25/uk/brexit-labour-conference-second-referendum-intl/index.html|title=The chances of a second Brexit referendum just got higher|first1=Lauren|last1=Said-Moorhouse|first2=Nada|last2=Bashir|date=26 September 2018|accessdate=26 February 2019}}
7. ^{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/20/corbyn-holds-back-from-conceding-to-calls-for-second-eu-referendum|title=Corbyn holds back from conceding to calls for second EU referendum |date=21 January 2019|accessdate=26 February 2019|first1=Heather|last1=Stewart|first2=Jessica|last2=Elgot|newspaper=The Guardian}}
8. ^{{cite news|url=https://www.ft.com/content/080d418a-f887-11e8-8b7c-6fa24bd5409c|title=Lynton Crosby aide working behind the scenes with Eurosceptics on strategy for new vote|date=7 December 2018|accessdate=26 February 2019|first=Sebastian|last=Payne|newspaper=Financial Times}}
9. ^{{cite news |url=https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/02/qa-who-are-independent-group-and-what-do-they-stand |title=Q&A: Who are the Independent Group and what do they stand for? |work=The New Statesman |author=Maguire, Patrick |date=18 February 2019 |accessdate=18 February 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190218155003/https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/02/qa-who-are-independent-group-and-what-do-they-stand |archive-date=18 February 2019 |dead-url=no }}
10. ^{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/25/labour-to-back-moves-for-second-brexit-referendum|title=Jeremy Corbyn: we’ll back a second referendum to stop Tory no-deal Brexit |date=25 February 2019|accessdate=26 February 2019|first1=Jessica|last1=Elgot|newspaper=The Guardian}}
11. ^{{cite web|url=https://britainelects.com/polling/europe/|title=Would Britain vote for Brexit again?|website=Britain Elects|accessdate=26 February 2019}}
12. ^{{cite web|url=https://whatukthinks.org/eu/has-there-been-a-shift-in-support-for-brexit/|title=Has There Been a Shift in Support for Brexit?|first=John|last=Curtice|date=8 February 2019|accessdate=26 February 2019|website=What UK Thinks|publisher=National Centre for Social Research}}
13. ^{{Cite web|url=https://whatukthinks.org/eu/a-question-of-wording-another-look-at-polling-on-a-second-referendum/|title=A Question of Wording? Another Look at Polling on a Second Referendum|website=What UK Thinks: EU|language=en-GB|access-date=2019-03-30}}
14. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/steve-fisher-condorcet|title=Deal or No Deal or Remain|first=Steve|last=Fisher|website=Deltapoll|accessdate=26 February 2019}}