| 词条 | Surprisingly popular |
| 释义 |
The surprisingly popular answer is a wisdom of the crowd technique that taps into the expert minority opinion within a crowd.[1] For a given question, a group is asked both "What do you think the right answer is?" and "What do you think the popular answer will be?" The answer that maximizes the average difference between the "right" answer and the "popular" answer is the "surprisingly popular" answer.[2] ExampleQuestion to be determined: Is Philadelphia the capital of Pennsylvania? Questions asked to the group and the response rates: Is Philadelphia the capital of Pennsylvania?
What do you think most people will respond to that question?
The difference between the answers to the right question and the popular question:
Thus, the No answer is surprisingly popular (10% > -10%). Because of the relatively high margin of 10%, there can be high confidence that the correct answer is No. References1. ^{{cite web|last1=Akst|first1=Daniel|title=The Wisdom of Even Wiser Crowds|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wisdom-of-even-wiser-crowds-1487265722?tesla=y&mod=vocus|publisher=The Wall Street Journal|accessdate=16 May 2018|date=February 16, 2017}} 2. ^{{cite web|last1=Dizikes|first1=Peter|title=Better wisdom from crowds|url=http://news.mit.edu/2017/algorithm-better-wisdom-crowds-0125|publisher=MIT News|accessdate=16 May 2018|date=January 25, 2017}} Further reading{{cite journal|last1=Prelec|first1=Dražen|last2=Seung|first2=H. Sebastian|last3=McCoy|first3=John|title=A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem|journal=Nature|date=25 January 2017|volume=541|pages=532–535|doi=10.1038/nature21054}} 4 : Crowdsourcing|Social information processing|Knowledge|Crowds |
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