“Black Monday (1987)”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

In finance, Black Monday refers to Monday, October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already sustained significant declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell exactly 508 points to 1,738.74 (22.61%).^[1] In Australia and New Zealand, the 1987 crash is also referred to as "Black Tuesday" because of the time zone difference.

The terms Black Monday and Black Tuesday are also respectively applied to October 28 and October 29, 1929, which occurred after Black Thursday on October 24, which started the Stock Market Crash of 1929.

Background

In late 1985 and early 1986, the United States economy shifted from a rapid recovery from the early 1980s recession to a slower expansion, resulting in a brief "soft landing" period as the economy slowed and inflation dropped. The stock market advanced significantly, with the Dow peaking in August 1987 at 2,722 points, or 44% over the previous year's closing of 1,895 points. Further financial uncertainty may have resulted from the collapse of OPEC in early 1986, which led to a crude oil price decrease of more than 50% by mid-1986.^[2]

On October 14, the DJIA dropped 95.46 points (3.8%) (a then record) to 2,412.70, and it fell another 58 points (2.4%) the next day, down over 12% from the August 25 all-time high.

On Thursday, October 15, 1987, Iran hit the American-owned (and Liberian-flagged) supertanker, the Sungari, with a Silkworm missile off Kuwait's main Mina Al Ahmadi oil port. The next morning, Iran hit another ship, the U.S.-flagged MV Sea Isle City, with another Silkworm missile.

On Friday, October 16, when all the markets in London were unexpectedly closed due to the Great Storm of 1987, the DJIA fell 108.35 points (4.6%) to close at 2,246.74 on record volume. Then–Treasury Secretary James Baker stated concerns about the falling prices.

The crash began in Far Eastern markets the morning of October 19 and accelerated in London time, largely because London had closed early on October 16 due to the storm. By 9:30 a.m., the London FTSE100 had fallen over 136 points. Later that morning, two U.S. warships shelled an Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf in response to Iran's Silkworm missile attack on the Sea Isle City.^[3]^[4]

Market effects

By the end of October, stock markets had fallen in Hong Kong (45.5%), Australia (41.8%), Spain (31%), the United Kingdom (26.45%), the United States (22.68%) and Canada (22.5%). New Zealand's market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and would take several years to recover.^[5]^[6] The damage to the New Zealand economy was compounded by high exchange rates and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's refusal to loosen monetary policy in response to the crisis, in contrast to countries such as West Germany, Japan and the United States, whose banks increased short-term liquidity to forestall recession and would experience economic growth in the following 2–3 years.^[7]

The Black Monday decline was, and currently remains, the largest one-day percentage decline in the DJIA. (Saturday, December 12, 1914, is sometimes erroneously cited as the largest one-day percentage decline of the DJIA. In reality, the ostensible decline of 24.39% was created retroactively by a redefinition of the DJIA in 1916.^[8]^[9])

Following the stock market crash, a group of 33 eminent economists from various nations met in Washington, D.C. in December 1987, and collectively predicted that "the next few years could be the most troubled since the 1930s".^[10]

Causes

Possible causes for the decline included program trading, overvaluation, illiquidity and market psychology.

A popular explanation for the 1987 crash was computerized selling dictated by portfolio insurance hedges.^[11] However, economist Dean Furbush pointed out that the biggest price drops occurred during light trading volume.^[12] In program trading, computers execute rapid stock trades based on external inputs, such as the price of related securities. Common strategies implemented by program trading involve an attempt to engage in arbitrage and portfolio insurance strategies.

As computer technology became widespread, program trading grew dramatically within Wall Street firms. After the crash, many blamed program trading strategies for blindly selling stocks as markets fell, exacerbating the decline. Some economists theorized that the speculative boom leading up to October was caused by program trading, and that the crash was merely a return to normalcy. Either way, program trading ended up taking the majority of the blame in the public eye for the 1987 stock market crash. U.S. Congressman Edward J. Markey, who had been warning about the possibility of a crash, stated that "Program trading was the principal cause."^[13]

New York University's Richard Sylla divides the causes into macroeconomic and internal reasons. Macroeconomic causes included international disputes about foreign exchange and interest rates, and fears about inflation.

Regulation

After Black Monday, regulators overhauled trade-clearing protocols to bring uniformity to all prominent market products. They also developed new rules, known as "trading curbs" or colloquially as circuit breakers, allowing exchanges to temporarily halt trading in instances of exceptionally large price declines in some indexes; for instance, the DJIA.^[15]

See also

References

1. ^{{cite news|last=Browning|first=E.S.| title=Exorcising Ghosts of Octobers Past|work=The Wall Street Journal|pages=C1–C2|publisher=Dow Jones & Company|date=2007-10-15| url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB119239926667758592?mod=mkts_main_news_hs_h|accessdate=2007-10-15}}
2. ^http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-caused-recession-not-wallstreet.php/Oil caused recession, not wall street, Tom Therramus, 2009
3. ^{{cite web |title=Black Monday 10th Anniversary 1987 Timeline |publisher=The Motley Fool |date=1997-10-19 |url=http://aol.fool.com/Features/1997/sp971017CrashAnniversary1987Timeline.htm |accessdate=2007-10-15 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20070306100851/http://aol.fool.com/Features/1997/sp971017CrashAnniversary1987Timeline.htm |archivedate=2007-03-06 |df= }}
4. ^http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2009/08/20/great-stock-market-crashes-black-monday-in-1987/ Great Stock Market Crashes: Black Monday In 1987
5. ^{{cite web |url= http://www2.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/web/nzstories.nsf/0/1ea7f51215015a74cc256b1f0004f99a/Body/0.2856?OpenElement&FieldElemFormat=jpg |title=Share Price Index, 1987–1998}}
6. ^{{cite web |url= http://www2.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/web/nzstories.nsf/0/1ea7f51215015a74cc256b1f0004f99a?OpenDocument |title=Commercial Framework: Stock exchange, New Zealand Official Yearbook 2000.|publisher=Statistics New Zealand|accessdate=8 December 2014}}
7. ^{{cite book|last1=Grant|first1=David Malcolm|title=Bulls, Bears and Elephants: A History of the New Zealand Stock Exchange|date=1997|publisher=Victoria University Press|location=Wellington|isbn=0-86473-308-9|page=330|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=GljzNcev1AEC&lpg=PP1&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false|accessdate=18 July 2016}}
8. ^{{cite news |title=Setting the Record Straight on the Dow Drop | date=1987-10-26| publisher= New York Times| url=https://www.nytimes.com/1987/10/26/business/setting-the-record-straight-on-the-dow-drop.html}}
9. ^{{cite news | title=The Day Stocks Rose but the Dow Plunged | date=2008-10-01 | publisher=WSJ.com Blogs: The Numbers Guy | url=https://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/the-day-stocks-rose-but-the-dow-plunged-423/ | first=Carl | last=Bialik}}
10. ^{{cite news |first= |last= |authorlink= |coauthors= |title=Group of 7, Meet the Group of 33 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/26/opinion/group-of-7-meet-the-group-of-33.html |work=The New York Times |publisher= |date=1987-12-26 |accessdate= }}
11. ^{{cite book|last=Bookstaber|first=Richard|title=A Demon Of Our Own Design|year=2007|publisher=John Wiley & Sons|location=USA|isbn=978-0-470-39375-8|pages=7–32}}
12. ^{{cite encyclopedia |last1=Furbush |first1=Dean |editor= David R. Henderson (ed.) |encyclopedia=Concise Encyclopedia of Economics |title=Program Trading |url=http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc1/ProgramTrading.html |year=2002 |edition= 1st |publisher=Library of Economics and Liberty |quote= The precipitous price declines occurred when the normal index-arbitrage relation was most disrupted, not when index arbitrage was prevalent.}} {{OCLC|317650570|50016270|163149563}}
13. ^{{cite web | last =Albert | first =Bozzo | title =Players replay the crash | work =Remembering the Crash of 87 | publisher =CNBC | date = 2007-10-12 | url =https://www.cnbc.com/id/21136884 | accessdate =2007-10-13}}
14. ^{{cite news | last =Annelena | first =Lobb | authorlink = | title =Looking Back at Black Monday:A Discussion With Richard Sylla | work =The Wall Street Journal Online | publisher =Dow Jones & Company | date =2007-10-15 | url =https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB119212671947456234?mod=US-Stocks | format = | doi = | accessdate =2007-10-15}}
15. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.federalreservehistory.org/Events/DetailView/48|title=Black Monday: The Stock Market Crash of 1987|last2=Eckblad|first2=Marshall|publisher=Federal Reserve History|last1=Bernhardt|first1=Donald|accessdate=31 July 2014}}