词条 | Global Burden of Disease Study | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
释义 |
The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) is a comprehensive regional and global research program of disease burden that assesses mortality and disability from major diseases, injuries, and risk factors. GBD is a collaboration of over 1,800 researchers from 127 countries. Under principal investigator Christopher J.L. Murray, GBD is based out of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.[1] HistoryThe Global Burden of Disease Study began in 1990 as a single World Bank-commissioned[2] study, now called GBD 1990.[3] The original project quantified the health effects of more than 100 diseases and injuries for eight regions of the world, giving estimates of morbidity and mortality by age, sex, and region. It also introduced the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) as a new metric to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors,[3][4][5] to aid comparisons. GBD 1990 was "institutionalized" at the World Health Organization (WHO) and the research was "conducted mainly by researchers at Harvard and WHO".[2] In 2000–2002, the 1990 study was updated by WHO to include a more extensive analysis using a framework known as comparative risk factor assessment.[4] The WHO estimates were again updated for 2004 in The global burden of disease: 2004 update (published in 2008)[6] and in Global health risks (published in 2009).[4][7] Official DALY estimates had not been updated by WHO since 2004[8] until the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), also known as the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010,[9] was published in December 2012.[14][10] The work quantified the burdens of 291 major causes of death and disability and 67 risk factors disaggregated by 21 geographic regions and various age–sex groups.[11][12] GBD 2010 had the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation as its coordinating center, but was a collaboration between several institutions including WHO and the Harvard School of Public Health.[11] The work was funded by the Gates Foundation.[2] The GBD 2010 estimates contributed to WHO's own estimates published in 2013,[4] although WHO did not acknowledge the GBD 2010 estimates.[13][14] The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) was published in 2014.[23] The first installment, "Smoking Prevalence and Cigarette Consumption in 187 Countries, 1980–2012", was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association in January, and further installments were published throughout the year.[14] IHME continued to act as the coordinating center for the work.[15] In October 2016, Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) was published.[14] The work was still coordinated at IHME. GrowthThe following table summarizes GBD's growth over the years.
AimsThe GBD has three specific aims:
The burden of disease can be viewed as the gap between current health status and an ideal situation in which everyone lives into old age free of disease and disability. Causes of the gap are premature mortality, disability and exposure to certain risk factors that contribute to illness. ResultsThe 2013 report showed that global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years in 1990, to 71.5 years in 2013,[22] while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million to 54.9 million over the same interval.[22] Progress varied widely across demographic and national groups. Reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections and neonatal causes in low-income regions drove the changes. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell, while for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%.[22] For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes and malaria remain in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections.[22] GBD 2015 found that for the first time, annual deaths from measles had fallen below 100,000 in 2013 and 2015.[23][24][25] It also found that the global annual rate of new HIV infections has largely stayed the same during the past 10 years.[26] GBD 2015 also introduced the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a measure of a location's socio-demographic development that takes into account average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate.[27][28][29] Reception{{more|Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation#Reception}}The results of the Global Burden of Disease Study have been cited by The New York Times,[30] The Washington Post,[31] Vox,[32] and The Atlantic.[33][34] The World Health Organization did not acknowledge the GBD 2010 estimates.[13][14] PublicationsThe following is a table of GBD publications {{as of|2017|02|lc=y}}.[35][36][37][38][39] "GBD 2010" proper means the paper was published as part of the original triple issue in The Lancet.
See also
References1. ^{{cite web|title=What does a $100 million public health data revolution look like?|url=http://www.tedmed.com/talks/show?id=17751|website=TEDMED}} 2. ^1 2 {{cite web |url=http://www.healthdata.org/announcement/institute-health-metrics-and-evaluation-and-world-health-organization-sign-new |title=Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and World Health Organization sign new agreement |publisher=Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation |accessdate=January 29, 2017 |date=May 2015}} 3. ^{{cite book|first1=Annette|last1=Prüss-Üstün|first2=C.|last2=Mathers|first3=Carlos|last3=Corvalán|first4=A.|last4=Woodward|title=Assessing the environmental burden of disease at national and local levels: Introduction and methods|year=2003|publisher=World Health Organization|location=Geneva|isbn=978-9241546201|series=WHO Environmental Burden of Disease Series|volume=1|url=http://www.who.int/quantifying_ehimpacts/publications/9241546204/en/index.html}} 4. ^1 2 3 4 {{cite web|url=http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/about/en/index.html|title=About the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project|work=Health statistics and health information systems|publisher=World Health Organization}} 5. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.who.int/topics/global_burden_of_disease/en/|title=Global burden of disease|publisher=World Health Organization}} 6. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GBD_report_2004update_full.pdf |title=The global burden of disease: 2004 update |publisher=World Health Organization |year=2008}} 7. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GlobalHealthRisks_report_Front.pdf |title=Global health risks: mortality and burden of disease attributable to selected major risks |year=2009 |publisher=World Health Organization}} 8. ^Global Burden of Disease (GBD) at WHO, 2012 9. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.healthdata.org/node/1366 |title=Global Burden of Disease: Massive shifts reshape the health landscape worldwide |publisher=Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation |accessdate=January 30, 2017 |quote=That’s one of the main findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), a collaborative project led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.|date=2014-05-08 }} 10. ^{{cite journal |vauthors=Murray CJ, Vos T, Lozano R, Naghavi M, Flaxman AD, Michaud C, etal | title=Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 | journal=Lancet | year= 2013 | volume= 380 | issue= 9859 | pages= 2197–223 | pmid=23245608 | doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4 }} 11. ^1 {{cite journal |vauthors=Murray CJ, Ezzati M, Flaxman AD, Lim S, Lozano R, Michaud C, etal | title=GBD 2010: design, definitions, and metrics | journal=Lancet | year= 2013 | volume= 380 | issue= 9859 | pages= 2063–6 | pmid=23245602 | doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61899-6 }} 12. ^{{cite journal|vauthors=Watts C, Cairncross S | title=Should the GBD risk factor rankings be used to guide policy? | journal=Lancet | year= 2013 | volume= 380 | issue= 9859 | pages= 2060–1 | pmid=23245600 | doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(12)62121-7}} 13. ^1 {{Cite journal |url=https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3406781/RudanComment2013GBD.pdf |first1=Igor |last1=Rudan |first2=Kit Yee |last2=Chan |title=Global health metrics needs collaboration and competition |date=December 18, 2014 |accessdate=January 27, 2017 |doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62006-7 |pmid=25530441 |journal=The Lancet |volume=385 |issue=9963 |pages=92–94}} 14. ^1 {{cite web |url=http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/science/historic-gift-gates-foundation-gives-279-million-to-university-of-washington/ |first=Sandi |last=Doughton |title=Historic gift: Gates Foundation gives $279 million to University of Washington |publisher=The Seattle Times |date=January 25, 2017 |accessdate=January 25, 2017 |quote=Initially, though, IHME antagonized other health experts, who accused the Seattle institute of arrogance and failing to share data and methods. Its first global health report card was not acknowledged by the World Health Organization.}} 15. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.healthdata.org/gbd/about/history |title=GBD History |publisher= Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation |accessdate=January 30, 2017|date=2014-04-18 }} 16. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/web-based-tool-charts-disease-risk-factors-around-the-world-and-through-time/2013/03/05/d182aa22-85cf-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_story.html |publisher=The Washington Post |title=Web-based tool charts disease, risk factors around the world and through time |date=March 5, 2013 |first=David |last=Brown |accessdate=January 31, 2017}} 17. ^1 2 3 {{cite web |url=http://www.healthdata.org/about/history |title=History |publisher=Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation |accessdate=January 29, 2017|date=2014-05-10 }} 18. ^{{cite journal|last1=Das|first1=P|title=The story of GBD 2010: a "super human" effort|journal=Lancet|date=2012|volume=380|issue=9859|pages=2067–2070|doi=10.1016/s0140-6736(12)62174-6}} 19. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/increase-global-life-expectancy-offset-war-obesity-and-substance-abuse |title=Increase in global life expectancy offset by war, obesity, and substance abuse |publisher=Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation |accessdate=January 29, 2017|date=2016-10-03 }} 20. ^{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1| issn = 0140-6736 | volume = 388| issue = 10053| pages = 1459–1544| authors=GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators | title = Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015| journal = The Lancet| accessdate = 2017-01-29| date = 2016-10-08| url = http://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)31012-1/fulltext| pmid=27733281| pmc=5388903}} 21. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161006102549.htm |title=Global burden of disease study 2015 assesses the state of the world's health |publisher=ScienceDaily |accessdate=January 29, 2017 |date=October 6, 2016}} 22. ^1 2 3 4 5 6 {{cite journal|author=GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators| date=2014|title=Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013|journal=The Lancet|volume=385|issue=9963|pages=117–171|issn=0140-6736|doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2|pmid=25530442|pmc=4340604}} 23. ^{{cite web |url=http://blogs.plos.org/speakingofmedicine/2016/11/16/vaccinations-vaccine-science-and-a-new-us-president/ |title=Vaccinations, Vaccine Science, and a New US President {{!}} Speaking of Medicine |publisher=PLOS |date=November 17, 2016 |accessdate=January 31, 2017 |author=Peter Hotez |quote=Those results include new findings just released by the Gates Foundation-supported Global Burden of Disease 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators that found a 75 percent reduction in global measles mortality over the last decade such that (for the first time ever) fewer than 100,000 children died from measles in 2013 and 2015}} 24. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableImage?tableId=tbl3&pii=S0140673614616822 |title=Table 3: Selected causes of global child deaths in 1990 and 2013 |accessdate=January 31, 2017}} 25. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableImage?tableId=tbl5&pii=S0140673616310121 |title=Table 5: Global deaths in 2005 and 2015 for all ages and both sexes combined and age-standardised death rates, with percentage change between 2005 and 2015 for 249 causes |accessdate=January 31, 2017}} 26. ^{{cite journal |url=http://www.nature.com/news/global-rate-of-new-hiv-infections-hasn-t-fallen-in-a-decade-1.20305 |title=Global rate of new HIV infections hasn't fallen in a decade |journal=Nature |accessdate=February 2, 2017 |author=Nisha Gaind |date=July 25, 2016|doi=10.1038/nature.2016.20305 }} 27. ^{{cite web |url=http://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/global-burden-disease-study-2015-gbd-2015-socio-demographic-index-sdi-1980%E2%80%932015 |title=Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) 1980–2015 |website=GHDx |accessdate=February 7, 2017 |publisher=Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation}} 28. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/there-s-a-new-ranking-of-the-healthiest-countries-how-is-yours-doing/ |title=There's a new ranking of the healthiest countries. How is yours doing? |publisher=World Economic Forum |accessdate=February 7, 2017 |date=September 23, 2016 |first=Joe |last=Myers}} 29. ^{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31790-1| issn = 0140-6736 | volume = 388| issue = 10053| pages = 1447| last = Lancet| first = The| title = GBD 2015: from big data to meaningful change| journal = The Lancet| accessdate = 2017-02-07| date = 2016-10-08| url = http://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)31790-1/abstract}} 30. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/18/world/asia/china-coal-health-smog-pollution.html |date=August 17, 2016 |publisher=The New York Times |title=Coal Burning Causes the Most Air Pollution Deaths in China, Study Finds |author=Edward Wong |accessdate=January 31, 2017}} 31. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/roads-kill-the-toll-of-traffic-accidents-are-rising-in-poor-countries/2014/01/12/b1065922-56d2-11e3-8304-caf30787c0a9_story.html |publisher=The Washington Post |title=Roads Kill: The toll of traffic accidents is rising in poor countries |accessdate=January 31, 2017 |date=January 13, 2014 |first=}} 32. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.vox.com/2015/1/2/7474995/map-years-lost-life |date=March 13, 2015 |author=Dylan Matthews |publisher=Vox |title=The #1 reason people die early, in each country |accessdate=January 31, 2017}} 33. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/01/how-the-world-gets-sick-and-dies/267454/ |publisher=The Atlantic |title=How the World Gets Sick and Dies |author=Neal Emery |accessdate=January 31, 2017 |date=January 24, 2013}} 34. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/10/how-back-pain-took-over-the-world/503243/ |publisher=The Atlantic |title=How Back Pain Took Over the World |author=Olga Khazan |accessdate=January 31, 2017 |date=October 7, 2016}} 35. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.healthdata.org/results/research-articles?field_topics_tid=All&field_publication_date_value%5Bvalue%5D%5Byear%5D=&field_people_target_id=All&field_health_conditions_tid=All&field_risk_factors_tid=All&field_geography_global_tid=All&field_project_list_tid=191 |title=Research Articles - Project: Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) |accessdate=February 2, 2017 |publisher=Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation}} 36. ^{{cite web |url=http://thelancet.com/gbd |title=Lancet Global Burden of Disease |accessdate=February 3, 2017 |publisher=The Lancet}} 37. ^{{cite web |url=http://thelancet.com/gbd/2013 |title=Lancet Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 |accessdate=February 3, 2017 |publisher=The Lancet}} 38. ^{{cite web |url=http://thelancet.com/gbd/2010 |title=Lancet Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 |accessdate=February 3, 2017 |publisher=The Lancet}} 39. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.hup.harvard.edu/results-list.php?collection=1045 |title=Search Results for: The Global Burden of Disease and Injury |publisher=Harvard University Press |accessdate=February 3, 2017 |last1=Murray |first1=Christopher J. L. |last2=Lopez |first2=Alan D.}} 40. ^{{cite web |url=http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/42161 |title=WHO IRIS: Health dimensions of sex and reproduction : the global burden of sexually transmitted diseases, HIV, maternal conditions, perinatal disorders, and congenital anomalies / edited by Christopher J. L. Murray, Alan D. Lopez |publisher=World Health Organization |accessdate=February 4, 2017}} 41. ^{{cite web |url=http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/41848 |title=WHO IRIS: Global health statistics : a compendium of incidence, prevalence and mortality estimates for over 200 conditions / Christopher J. L. Murray, Alan D. Lopez |publisher=World Health Organization |accessdate=February 4, 2017}} 42. ^{{cite web |url=http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/41864 |title=WHO IRIS: The Global burden of disease : a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020 : summary / edited by Christopher J. L. Murray, Alan D. Lopez |publisher=World Health Organization |accessdate=February 4, 2017}} External links
2 : Global health|Public health research |
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