词条 | Debt levels and flows |
释义 |
Debt levels and flows are a measure of the levels of debt – how much debt is outstanding – and the flows of debt – how much the level of debt changes over time. This is basic macroeconomic data, and varies between countries. Debt is used to finance enterprises and business around the world. Within mainstream economics, levels and flows of public debt (government debt) are a cause of concern, while levels and flows of private debt (especially households and corporations) are not seen as being of central importance. Measuring debt{{details|Debt to GDP ratio}}In measuring debt, stocks and flows are both of interest: stocks are amounts, levels of debt (e.g., $100) and have units of currency (such as US Dollars), while flows are changes in levels – in calculus terms, the derivative – (e.g., $10/year), and have units of currency/time (such as US Dollars/Year). In order to make these stock and flows comparable between countries and across time, one may normalize these by some measure of the size of the country's economy, most often GDP, that is, compute the debt to GDP ratio. For instance, $10 billion in 2000 is a small amount of debt relative to the size of the economy of the United States, but large relative to the size of the economy of Iceland, and dividing by the GDP reflects this. Because GDP is generally quoted with units of currency/year, and debt levels have units of currency, the debt level/GDP ratio has units of years, which may be interpreted as "how many years it would take to repay the debt if all income went to debt repayment". In practice this cannot happen – some of GDP must go to survival – and historically debt repayment rates during periods of repayment have been about 4%–10% of GDP (as in the United States during the Great Depression and World War II),{{Citation needed|date=January 2010}} so practical time to repay debt is rather Debt/GDP times 10–25. Overall levelsDebt levels are worth 3 years of GDP in many countries that have an annual GDP/person above $10,000. Worldwide debt levels are perhaps worth two or three years of GDP.{{Weasel inline|date=January 2010}} GDP (at currency exchange rate) was $40 trillion during 2004. Debt levels may therefore be about $100 trillion.{{Weasel inline|date=January 2010}} $5.7 trillion of gross debt was issued in 2004 according to Thomson Financial numbers, while GDP grew $4 trillion (currency exchange rate). That does not mean that net debt grew faster than GDP on a worldwide average (even if it has done so for years after 2001 in the USA), as debt issuance may be refinancing of existing debt, often "rolling over" debt that comes due into new debt. When debt matures new debt is many times issued to repay the old debt, perhaps from the same creditor. That is one reason why debt issuance far surpasses equity issuance in currency value. Debt is often issued with a repayment plan (a "time to maturity" in some cases), repayment times may be between a few days (interbank cash flow management) and 50 years or longer (consumer real estate debt). The average repayment time of all worldwide outstanding debt is perhaps{{Weasel inline|date=January 2010}} 10 years.{{Citation needed|date=January 2010}} Equity is another way of financing business, as it has no set time to maturity and pays no set interest. It pays profit from the company it has a claim on. AccountingAll credit is debt, a liability. Debt is created by lenders and borrowers agreeing to exchange the use of money for the promise to repay. The unit of money lent is the asset of the creditor and the liability of the debtor. Notes are paper with terms of exchange, hence credits or access to money. All currencies are notes ("This note is legal tender for..."). Money is based on a fiat whereupon all agree upon the exchange values of any one currency for another. This extends to savings and checking accounts which are depository receipts for money loaned to bankers who in turn lend it to other borrowers. And thus it multiplies, a deposit becomes a loan that becomes another deposit and so on. The terms of the lending agreement are the key elements of the contractual terms of a promissory note regarding repayment including the amount(s) loaned and to be repaid, loan fees, time value and risk value interest charges, due dates, balloon payments, default terms and more. All material information should be disclosed on financial statements or footnotes. Flows2004Worldwide debt and equity underwriting reached a record $5.69 trillion. Worldwide debt underwriting grew 4.3% year-over-year to $5.19 trillion. Syndicated lending was up 34.3% year-over-year. worldwide high-yield corporate debt climbed to over $163 billion eclipsing the previous record of $150 billion set in 1998. US Asset-backed securities volume increased 41.7% to $857 billion. Worldwide equity & equity-related issuance totaled $505bn for the year, representing a 29.9% increase over the $389bn raised in 2003. Initial public offerings increased nearly 220%. 2003Worldwide Debt, Equity and Equity-related issuance reached record-breaking levels with over $5 trillion in proceeds raised, surpassing 2001's record of $4.4 trillion. The $5 trillion of borrowings represented 14% of the GDP flow during the year (4.938/36.3) (see world economy). 93% of the issuance was debt, 7% was equity. Note that these numbers don't include all mortgage borrowing, which was $3.8 trillion in the United States during 2003. $900 billion of it is in mortgage-backed securities, at least $546 billion in US Federal Credit Agency. FlowsFlows mean issued and sold debt. Debt and equity issuance reported by Thomson Financial ( ) ($ billions and number of issues). Worldwide Debt, Equity & Equity-related
Worldwide Disclosed Fees
Worldwide Equity and Equity-related
Worldwide Debt
Worldwide High Yield Corporate Debt
Worldwide Loans (syndicated, leveraged)
EuropeAll Euromarket Issues
European Leveraged Loans
United StatesUS Investment grade
All US Federal Credit Agency Debt. FHLB dominated the agency market in 2003, raising $545.5 billion in proceeds, a 35% increase in volume from 2002.
US Mortgage-backed Securities
US Asset-backed securities
US Syndicated Loans
US Leveraged Loans
LevelsLevels mean market or balance sheet liability of borrowing party (or asset of lending party) value. Numbers are end-of-year levels, unless otherwise stated. Euro areaCredit market debt
Households
Non-financial corporations
Government
JapanCredit market debt
Households
Non-financial corporations
Government
United States{{main|Financial position of the United States}}Dollar amounts are debt owed by each sector (amounts borrowed by each sector) Credit market debt
Household sector
Domestic Financial sectors
Nonfinancial corporate business
Nonfarm noncorporate business
Farm business
Government
Federal government
State and local governments
See also
References1. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp570.pdf |format=PDF|title=Working Paper Series No. 570 (page 8) |accessdate=2007-02-25 |date=2006-01-01 |author=Laura Rinaldi and Alicia Sanchis-Arellano |publisher=European Central Bank}} 2. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.federalreserve.gov/RELEASES/z1/20060919/z1.pdf |format=PDF|title=Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States |accessdate=2007-02-05 |date=2006-09-19 |publisher=Federal Reserve}} 3. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf |format=PDF|title=Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States |date=2008-06-15 |publisher=Federal Reserve}} External links
InternationalThomson Financial
EuropeECB
United States
Federal Reserve
3 : Debt|Financial economics|Macroeconomic indicators |
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