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词条 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas
释义

  1. Primaries

  2. Campaign

     Predictions  Polling  Fundraising  Advertising and visits 

  3. Analysis

  4. Results

     By congressional district  By county 

  5. Electors

  6. References

  7. See also

{{Main|United States presidential election, 2008}}{{Infobox election
| election_name = United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2008
| country = Arkansas
| flag_year = 1924
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2004
| previous_year = 2004
| next_election = United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2012
| next_year = 2012
| election_date = November 4, 2008
| image1 =
| nominee1 = John McCain
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| home_state1 = Arizona
| running_mate1 = Sarah Palin
| electoral_vote1 = 6
| popular_vote1 = 638,017
| percentage1 = 58.72%
| image2 =
| nominee2 = Barack Obama
| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)
| home_state2 = Illinois
| running_mate2 = Joe Biden
| electoral_vote2 = 0
| popular_vote2 = 422,310
| percentage2 = 38.86%
| map_image = Arkansas Presidential Election Results 2008.svg
| map_size = 300px
| map_caption = County Results{{col-start}}{{col-2}}McCain{{legend|#f2b3be|40-50%}}{{legend|#e27f90|50-60%}}{{legend|#cc2f4a|60-70%}}{{legend|#d40000|70-80%}}{{col-2}}Obama{{legend|#86b6f2|50-60%}}{{legend|#4389e3|60-70%}}{{col-end}}
| title = President
| before_election = George W. Bush
| before_party = Republican Party (United States)
| after_election = Barack Obama
| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)
}}{{ElectionsAR}}

The 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 6 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Arkansas was won by Republican John McCain by a 19.9% margin of victory, an even greater margin than George W. Bush did in 2004, despite the national Democratic trend. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state trended dramatically Republican in 2008, as McCain performed over 4% better than Bush did in 2004, more than any other state. Only five counties swung more Democratic in 2008, and the vast majority of counties swung heavily Republican (some by as much as a 30% swing toward the Republicans).[1] Of the 10 counties with the largest % swing to the Republicans in 2008, 6 of them, a majority, were in Arkansas. Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Arkansas. Arkansas was one of the six states where neither Obama nor McCain won during the primary season.

Primaries

Arkansas swung and trended more Republican than any other state in the nation during the election

  • Arkansas Democratic primary, 2008
  • Arkansas Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Republican&91;2&93;
  2. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican&91;3&93;
  3. Takeaway: Leaning McCain&91;4&93;
  4. Election Projection: Leaning McCain&91;5&93;
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Republican&91;6&93;
  6. Washington Post: Leaning McCain&91;7&93;
  7. Politico: Solid McCain&91;8&93;
  8. Real Clear Politics: Leaning McCain&91;9&93;
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain&91;7&93;
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Republican&91;10&93;
  11. New York Times: Solid Republican&91;11&93;
  12. CNN: Leaning Republican&91;12&93;
  13. NPR: Solid McCain&91;7&93;
  14. MSNBC: Solid McCain&91;7&93;
  15. Fox News: Republican&91;13&93;
  16. Associated Press: Republican&91;14&93;
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican&91;15&93;

Polling

{{Main|Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Arkansas|l1=Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Arkansas}}

John McCain won every single opinion poll taken in Arkansas prior to the election. Although, McCain polled just in the low 50% range.[16] RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 52.3% for McCain, compared to 38.8% for Obama. The margin of victory on election day was more than double of the RCP average.[17] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.

Fundraising

Obama raised $1,004,783. McCain raised $934,884. Both candidates raised the most in Pulaski County.[18][19]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent over $110,350. McCain spent only $459.[20] Neither candidate visited the state.[21]

Analysis

Although former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, easily carried his home state of Arkansas in 1992 and 1996, the state was largely considered a safe state for McCain. Early polls gave McCain a double-digit lead among possible voters on Election Day.[22] Although the state was still strongly Democratic at the state and local levels, on Election Day, Arkansas voted for McCain by a margin of approximately 20%--ten points better than Bush's showing four years earlier. A possible factor for such the large swing away from the Democrats could have been the fact that Hillary Clinton, who once served as First Lady of Arkansas while her husband was Governor, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The polls showed Clinton defeating McCain in Arkansas. Obama became the first Democrat in history to win the White House without carrying Arkansas.

During the same election, however, freshman Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor faced no Republican opposition, and was reelected in a landslide victory over Rebekah Kennedy of the Green Party. The four members of the state's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives (three Democrats and one Republican) were also reelected with no major-party opposition. Republicans, however, picked up three seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives and one Democratic state representative became a Green (he later returned to the Democratic Party in 2009).

Results

United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2008[23]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin638,01758.72%6
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden422,31038.86%0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez12,8821.19%0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root4,7760.44%0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle4,0230.37%0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente3,4700.32%0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Eugene Puryear1,1390.10%0
Totals1,086,617100.00%6
Voter turnout64.52%

By congressional district

McCain swept every congressional district in Arkansas, three of which were held by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
{{ushr|Arkansas|1|1st 58.69% 38.41%Marion Berry
{{ushr|Arkansas|2|2nd 53.98% 44.07%Vic Snyder
{{ushr|Arkansas|3|3rd 64.16% 33.45%John Boozman
{{ushr|Arkansas|4|4th 58.14% 39.33%Michael Avery Ross

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Arkansas 37.53% 2,619 59.97% 4,185 2.49% 174 6,978
Ashley 34.44% 2,976 62.55% 5,406 3.01% 260 8,642
Baxter 32.73% 6,539 64.32% 12,852 2.95% 590 19,981
Benton 30.67% 23,331 67.20% 51,124 2.13% 1,618 76,073
Boone 28.66% 4,435 68.34% 10,575 3.% 464 15,474
Bradley 41.57% 1,680 55.98% 2,262 2.45% 99 4,041
Calhoun 31.17% 691 65.94% 1,462 2.89% 64 2,217
Carroll 39.44% 4,172 57.50% 6,083 3.06% 324 10,579
Chicot 58.43% 3,043 40.69% 2,119 .88% 46 5,208
Clark 46.92% 4,267 50.67% 4,608 2.41% 219 9,094
Clay 40.72% 2,244 55.02% 3,032 4.26% 235 5,511
Cleburne 26.03% 2,951 70.22% 7,962 3.75% 425 11,338
Cleveland 25.99% 911 69.93% 2,451 4.08% 143 3,505
Columbia 37.18% 3,554 61.32% 5,861 1.5% 143 9,558
Conway 38.70% 3,149 57.64% 4,691 3.66% 298 8,138
Craighead 36.47% 11,294 60.97% 18,881 2.56% 793 30,968
Crawford 25.51% 5,238 71.54% 14,688 2.95% 606 20,532
Crittenden 56.59% 10,330 41.91% 7,650 1.51% 275 18,255
Cross 36.19% 2,580 61.61% 4,393 2.2% 157 7,130
Dallas 44.33% 1,471 52.95% 1,757 2.71% 90 3,318
Desha 54.92% 2,569 42.73% 1,999 2.35% 110 4,678
Drew 39.30% 2,598 58.40% 3,860 2.3% 152 6,610
Faulkner 36.32% 14,955 61.59% 25,362 2.09% 862 41,179
Franklin 28.86% 1,869 68.12% 4,411 3.01% 195 6,475
Fulton 38.90% 1,819 57.78% 2,702 3.31% 155 4,676
Garland 36.37% 15,899 61.36% 26,825 2.28% 995 43,719
Grant 22.99% 1,562 73.94% 5,023 3.06% 208 6,793
Greene 33.36% 4,541 63.02% 8,578 3.62% 493 13,612
Hempstead 39.04% 2,869 58.14% 4,273 2.82% 207 7,349
Hot Spring 35.87% 4,288 60.30% 7,209 3.83% 458 11,955
Howard 36.03% 1,746 61.02% 2,957 2.95% 143 4,846
Independence 29.99% 3,688 67.12% 8,255 2.89% 356 12,299
Izard 34.34% 1,792 61.19% 3,193 4.47% 233 5,218
Jackson 39.54% 2,207 55.86% 3,118 4.6% 257 5,582
Jefferson 62.19% 18,465 35.89% 10,655 1.92% 569 29,689
Johnson 37.09% 3,034 60.17% 4,922 2.74% 224 8,180
Lafayette 39.04% 1,133 58.06% 1,685 2.89% 84 2,902
Lawrence 36.67% 2,138 57.58% 3,357 5.75% 335 5,830
Lee 60.14% 2,263 38.64% 1,454 1.22% 46 3,763
Lincoln 38.81% 1,710 57.04% 2,513 4.15% 183 4,406
Little River 34.03% 1,753 63.02% 3,247 2.95% 152 5,152
Logan 28.91% 2,286 67.66% 5,350 3.43% 271 7,907
Lonoke 25.14% 5,968 72.63% 17,242 2.24% 531 23,741
Madison 33.88% 2,144 62.77% 3,972 3.35% 212 6,328
Marion 33.29% 2,384 63.17% 4,524 3.55% 254 7,162
Miller 32.32% 4,869 65.81% 9,913 1.87% 281 15,063
Mississippi 47.59% 6,667 49.79% 6,976 2.62% 367 14,010
Monroe 46.83% 1,615 50.86% 1,754 2.32% 80 3,449
Montgomery 30.15% 1,092 65.30% 2,365 4.56% 165 3,622
Nevada 40.55% 1,474 56.73% 2,062 2.72% 99 3,635
Newton 29.85% 1,182 65.35% 2,588 4.8% 190 3,960
Ouachita 43.63% 4,346 54.49% 5,427 1.88% 187 9,960
Perry 31.60% 1,352 64.10% 2,743 4.3% 184 4,279
Phillips 63.50% 5,695 34.53% 3,097 1.97% 177 8,969
Pike 27.46% 1,089 68.76% 2,727 3.78% 150 3,966
Poinsett 34.59% 2,742 61.84% 4,903 3.57% 283 7,928
Polk 25.48% 1,957 71.25% 5,473 3.27% 251 7,681
Pope 27.18% 6,002 70.51% 15,568 2.31% 509 22,079
Prairie 31.00% 1,048 65.75% 2,223 3.25% 110 3,381
Pulaski 55.07% 88,854 43.52% 70,212 1.41% 2,277 161,343
Randolph 39.07% 2,469 57.21% 3,615 3.72% 235 6,319
Saline 28.43% 12,695 69.38% 30,981 2.19% 977 44,653
Scott 26.36% 1,053 69.86% 2,791 3.78% 151 3,995
Searcy 24.98% 961 70.86% 2,726 4.16% 160 3,847
Sebastian 31.64% 13,673 66.27% 28,637 2.09% 902 43,212
Sevier 28.19% 1,291 68.23% 3,125 3.58% 164 4,580
Sharp 33.59% 2,436 62.53% 4,535 3.87% 281 7,252
St. Francis 57.72% 5,486 41.21% 3,917 1.07% 102 9,505
Stone 30.02% 1,598 66.38% 3,534 3.61% 192 5,324
Union 36.03% 6,190 62.15% 10,677 1.82% 312 17,179
Van Buren 32.09% 2,151 63.79% 4,276 4.12% 276 6,703
Washington 42.44% 29,021 55.52% 37,963 2.04% 1,396 68,380
White 24.97% 6,732 72.22% 19,467 2.8% 756 26,955
Woodruff 51.14% 1,412 43.68% 1,206 5.18% 143 2,761
Yell 33.18% 2,003 63.09% 3,808 3.73% 225 6,036

Electors

{{Main|List of United States presidential electors, 2008}}

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[25]

  1. Jim Burnett
  2. Reta Hamilton
  3. Rose Bryant Jones
  4. Phyllis Kincannon
  5. Steve Lux
  6. Kermit Parks

References

1. ^{{cite web|url=http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2008&fips=5&f=1&off=0&elect=0&def=swg&datatype=county|title=Arkansas Swing 2008|publisher=Useelctionsatlas.org|accessdate=2013-10-27}}
2. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html |title=D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries |publisher=Dcpoliticalreport.com |date= |accessdate=2012-07-26}}
3. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential#belowMap |title=Presidential | The Cook Political Report |publisher=Cookpolitical.com |date= |accessdate=2012-07-26 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential |archivedate=May 5, 2015 }}
4. ^Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/ |date=April 22, 2009 }}
5. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.electionprojection.com/2008elections/president08.shtml |title=Election Projection |publisher=Electionprojection.com |accessdate=2013-10-27}}
6. ^{{cite web|url=http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html |title=President, Senate, House Updated Daily |publisher=Electoral-vote.com |date= |accessdate=2012-07-26}}
7. ^1 2 3 Based on Takeaway
8. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html |title=POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map |publisher=Politico.Com |date= |accessdate=2012-07-26}}
9. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5 |title=Electoral Map |publisher=RealClearPolitics |date= |accessdate=2012-07-26}}
10. ^CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08/ |date=June 14, 2009 }}
11. ^{{cite news| url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html?scp=1&sq=electoral%20college%20map&st=cse | title=Electoral College Map | work=The New York Times | accessdate=May 26, 2010}}
12. ^{{cite news| url=http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/ | work=CNN | title=October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs | accessdate=May 26, 2010}}
13. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/ | title=Winning the Electoral College | work=Fox News | date=April 27, 2010}}
14. ^{{cite web|url=http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/ |title=roadto270 |publisher=Hosted.ap.org |date= |accessdate=2012-07-26}}
15. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update |title=Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™ |publisher=Rasmussenreports.com |date=2008-11-03 |accessdate=2012-07-26}}
16. ^{{cite web|url=http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=5 |title=Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections |publisher=Uselectionatlas.org |date= |accessdate=2012-07-26}}
17. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/al/alabama_mccain_vs_obama-557.html|title=Alabama: McCain vs. Obama|accessdate=May 31, 2009|publisher=RealClearPolitics}}
18. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/fundraising/ | work=CNN | title=Map: Campaign money race - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com | accessdate=May 26, 2010}}
19. ^  {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090118034404/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=AR&cand_id=P00000001 |date=January 18, 2009 }}
20. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/ | work=CNN | title=Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com | accessdate=May 26, 2010}}
21. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/candidate.visits/ | work=CNN | title=Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com | accessdate=May 26, 2010}}
22. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ar/arkansas_mccain_vs_obama-592.html|title=RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Arkansas|accessdate=2008-12-17}}
23. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.arelections.org/index.php?ac:show:contest_statewide=1&elecid=181&contestid=6 |title=Official General Election Results |accessdate=2008-12-12 |publisher=Arkansas Secretary of State}}
24. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm |title=Electoral College |accessdate=2008-11-01 |publisher=California Secretary of State |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm |archivedate=October 30, 2008 }}
25. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/index.html#ar |title=U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates |publisher=Archives.gov |date= |accessdate=2012-07-26}}

See also

{{2008 U.S. presidential election state results}}{{DEFAULTSORT:United States Presidential Election In Arkansas, 2008}}

3 : 2008 United States presidential election by state|2008 Arkansas elections|United States presidential elections in Arkansas
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