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词条 2008 United States presidential election in Nevada
释义

  1. Primaries

  2. Campaign

     Predictions  Polling  Fundraising  Advertising and visits 

  3. Analysis

  4. Results

  5. Results breakdown

     By county  By congressional district 

  6. Electors

  7. References

  8. See also

{{Main|United States presidential election, 2008}}{{Infobox election
| election_name = United States presidential election in Nevada, 2008
| country = Nevada
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = United States presidential election in Nevada, 2004
| previous_year = 2004
| next_election = United States presidential election in Nevada, 2012
| next_year = 2012
| election_date = November 4, 2008
| image1 =
| nominee1 = Barack Obama
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| home_state1 = Illinois
| running_mate1 = Joe Biden
| electoral_vote1 = 5
| popular_vote1 = 533,736
| percentage1 = 55.15%
| image2 =
| nominee2 = John McCain
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| home_state2 = Arizona
| running_mate2 = Sarah Palin
| electoral_vote2 = 0
| popular_vote2 = 412,827
| percentage2 = 42.65%
| map_image = Nevada presidential election results 2008.svg
| map_size = 275px
| map_caption = County Results{{col-start}}{{col-2}}Obama{{legend|#b9d7ff|40-50%}}{{legend|#86b6f2|50-60%}}{{col-2}}McCain{{legend|#f2b3be|40-50%}}{{legend|#e27f90|50-60%}}{{legend|#cc2f4a|60-70%}}{{legend|#d40000|70-80%}}{{col-end}}
| title = President
| before_election = George W. Bush
| before_party = Republican Party (United States)
| after_election = Barack Obama
| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)
}}{{ElectionsNV}}

The 2008 United States presidential election in Nevada was part of the 2008 United States presidential election, which took place on November 4, 2008, throughout all 50 states and D.C.. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Nevada was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 12.5% margin of victory. Both campaigns heavily campaigned here in 2008, as although Obama held a lead in the polls, it was not unreasonable to think that John McCain, a nationally prominent Senator from neighboring Arizona had a legitimate chance of having Nevada swing to his corner. Most news organization considered the state as Obama would win, or a blue state, but some still considered it as a swing state during the last week of the election.[1] In the past four presidential elections, the margin of victory has always been below 5 percentage points. George W. Bush carried Nevada twice in 2000 and 2004 while Bill Clinton won the Silver State both times as well in 1992 and 1996. With the anti-Republican sentiment growing nationwide and the fact that personally, McCain barely campaigned in Nevada, Nevada swung wildly into the Democratic column in 2008 as Barack Obama carried the state by 12.50 points over John McCain, receiving 55.15% of the total statewide vote to McCain's 42.65%. It was the first time since 1988 that the margin of victory was in double digits, and the first and so far only time since 1964 when the margin was Democratic.

Primaries

  • Nevada Republican caucuses, 2008
  • Nevada Democratic caucuses, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Republican&91;2&93;
  2. Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat&91;3&93;
  3. Takeaway: Leaning Obama&91;1&93;
  4. Election Projection: Leaning Obama&91;4&93;
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat&91;5&93;
  6. Washington Post: Leaning Obama&91;6&93;
  7. Politico: Leaning Obama&91;7&93;
  8. Real Clear Politics: Leaning Obama&91;8&93;
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning Obama&91;6&93;
  10. CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat&91;9&93;
  11. New York Times: Leaning Democrat&91;10&93;
  12. CNN: Leaning Democrat&91;11&93;
  13. NPR: Leaning Democrat&91;6&93;
  14. MSNBC: Toss-up&91;6&93;
  15. Fox News: Toss-up&91;12&93;
  16. Associated Press: Toss-up&91;13&93;
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-up&91;14&93;

Polling

{{Main|Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Nevada|l1=Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Nevada}}

In the beginning of the general election, it was a dead heat. McCain did win several polls. However, since September 30, Obama swept every other poll taken in the state and tied one poll. The final 3 polls averaged 50% to 44% in favor of Obama.[15] On election day, Obama won the state with 55% and by a double-digit margin of victory, a much better performance than polls showed.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,980,771 in the state. Barack Obama raised $2,328,659.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $9,622,022. McCain and his interest groups spent $6,184,427.[17] Each campaign visited the state 7 times.[18]

Analysis

Nevada was somewhat of a swing state that voted for the winner of every presidential election from 1912 with the exceptions of 1976 when the state voted for Republican Gerald Ford over Democrat Jimmy Carter and 2016 when Nevada voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton over eventual winner Donald Trump. In 2008, McCain of neighboring Arizona was leading most polls taken March until the end of September (around the time of the 2008 financial crisis), when Obama of Illinois started taking a lead in almost every poll conducted from the beginning of October on, some of which in double digits.[19] The subprime mortgage crisis hit Nevada hard, and McCain's statement that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" undoubtedly hurt him in a state that was devastated by the economic meltdown.

When the actual 2008 election came, Obama carried the Silver State by a very safe margin of 12.50 percentage points, larger than most polls anticipated. This was due almost entirely to Obama winning the state's three largest jurisdictions: Clark County, home to Las Vegas; Washoe County, which contains Reno; and the independent city of Carson City,[20] which combine for 88% of Nevada's total population. Hispanics also played a large role in Obama's landslide victory. According to exit polling, they composed 15% of voters in Nevada and broke for Obama by a three-to-one margin.[21] With their support, Obama carried Washoe County by a comfortable 12-point margin and a somewhat narrower one-point margin in Carson City. These two areas hadn't gone Democratic since Lyndon B. Johnson won them in 1964. Obama also won Clark County by double digits, the first time a Democrat won the county by more than single-digits since 1964. McCain ran up huge margins in most of the more rural counties, which have been solidly Republican ever since Richard Nixon's 1968 win.[22] However, it was not nearly enough to overcome his deficit in Clark, Washoe and Carson City. Indeed, Obama's 122,000-vote margin in Clark County would have been enough by itself to carry the state, and Nevada voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole for the first time since 1960 and second since 1944.[23]

At the same time, Democrats picked up a U.S. House seat in Nevada's 3rd Congressional District, which is based in Clark County and consists of most of the Las Vegas suburbs. Democratic State Senator Dina Titus defeated incumbent Republican Jon Porter by 5.14 points with several third parties receiving a small but significant proportion of the total statewide vote. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Nevada Assembly and picked up two seats in the Nevada Senate, giving the Democrats control of both chambers of the Nevada Legislature for the first time in decades.

{{As of|2016|11|alt=As of the 2016 presidential election}}, this is the last time that Carson City voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results

United States presidential election in Nevada, 2008
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden533,73655.15%5
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin412,82742.65%0
None of these CandidatesNone of these Candidates6,2670.65%0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez6,1500.64%0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root4,2630.44%0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle3,1940.33%0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente1,4110.15%0
Totals967,848100.00%5
Voter turnout (Voting age population)49.7%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Carson City 49.08% 11,623 48.22% 11,419 2.69% 638 23,680
Churchill County 32.95% 3,494 64.42% 6,832 2.63% 279 10,605
Clark County 58.48% 380,765 39.48% 257,078 2.04% 13,299 651,142
Douglas County 41.20% 10,672 56.55% 14,648 2.25% 584 25,904
Elko County 28.35% 4,541 68.47% 10,969 3.18% 509 16,019
Esmeralda County 23.69% 104 69.02% 303 7.29% 32 439
Eureka County 19.33% 144 75.70% 564 4.97% 37 745
Humboldt County 33.70% 1,909 63.31% 3,586 2.98% 169 5,664
Lander County 27.45% 577 69.74% 1,466 2.81% 59 2,102
Lincoln County 24.58% 518 71.10% 1,498 4.32% 91 2,107
Lyon County 39.83% 8,405 57.59% 12,154 2.58% 544 21,103
Mineral County 46.90% 1,082 49.02% 1,131 4.07% 94 2,307
Nye County 41.31% 7,226 54.53% 9,537 4.16% 728 17,491
Pershing County 36.66% 673 58.55% 1,075 4.79% 88 1,836
Storey County 45.57% 1,102 51.57% 1,247 2.85% 69 2,418
Washoe County 55.25% 99,671 42.61% 76,880 2.14% 3,856 180,407
White Pine County 32.01% 1,230 63.51% 2,440 4.48% 172 3,842

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried two of the state's three congressional districts both held by Democrats while John McCain carried the one and only congressional district held by a Republican.

District McCain Obama Representative
{{ushr|Nevada|1|1st 34.25% 63.68%Shelley Berkley
{{ushr|Nevada|2|2nd 48.79% 48.76%Dean Heller
{{ushr|Nevada|3|3rd42.59%55.35%Jon Porter (110th Congress)
Dina Titus (111th Congress)

Electors

{{Main|List of United States presidential electors, 2008}}

Technically the voters of Nevada cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Nevada is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[25]

  1. Maggie Carlton
  2. Tahis Castro
  3. Ruby Duncan
  4. Ron Hibble
  5. Theresa Navarro

References

1. ^Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/ |date=April 22, 2009 }}
2. ^D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
3. ^Presidential | The Cook Political Report {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential#belowMap |date=May 5, 2015 }}
4. ^Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
5. ^Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
6. ^Based on Takeaway
7. ^POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
8. ^RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
9. ^CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081029000000/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08/ |date=October 29, 2008 }}
10. ^{{cite news| url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html?scp=1&sq=electoral%20college%20map&st=cse | title=Electoral College Map | work=The New York Times | accessdate=2010-05-26}}
11. ^{{cite news| url=http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/ | work=CNN | title=October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs | accessdate=2010-05-26}}
12. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/ | title=Winning the Electoral College | work=Fox News | date=2010-04-27}}
13. ^roadto270
14. ^Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
15. ^Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
16. ^Presidential Campaign Finance
17. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/ | work=CNN | title=Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com | accessdate=2010-05-26}}
18. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/candidate.visits/ | work=CNN | title=Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com | accessdate=2010-05-26}}
19. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html|title=RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Nevada|accessdate=2008-11-26}}
20. ^{{cite news|url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPNV|title=CNN Election Center 2008 - Nevada Results|accessdate=2008-11-26}}
21. ^{{cite web|last=Cost|first=Jay|author2=Sean Trende |title=Election Review, Part 3: The West|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/01/election_review_part_3_the_wes.html|publisher=RealClearPolitics|date=2009-01-18|accessdate=2009-04-19}}
22. ^Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
23. ^Counting the Votes; Nevada
24. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm |title=Electoral College |accessdate=2008-11-01 |publisher=California Secretary of State |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm |archivedate=October 30, 2008 }}
25. ^http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200881215045

See also

{{United States presidential election, 2008}}{{2008 U.S. presidential election state results}}

3 : 2008 United States presidential election by state|United States presidential elections in Nevada|2008 Nevada elections

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