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词条 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico
释义

  1. Primaries

  2. Campaign

     Predictions  Polling  Fundraising  Advertising and visits 

  3. Analysis

  4. Results

  5. Results breakdown

     By county  By congressional district 

  6. Electors

  7. References

{{main|United States presidential election, 2008}}{{Use American English|date=December 2016}}{{Use mdy dates|date=December 2016}}{{Infobox election
| election_name = United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2008
| country = New Mexico
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2004
| previous_year = 2004
| next_election = United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2012
| next_year = 2012
| election_date = November 4, 2008
| image1 =
| nominee1 = Barack Obama
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| home_state1 = Illinois
| running_mate1 = Joe Biden
| electoral_vote1 = 5
| popular_vote1 = 472,422
| percentage1 = 56.91%
| image2 =
| nominee2 = John McCain
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| home_state2 = Arizona
| running_mate2 = Sarah Palin
| electoral_vote2 = 0
| popular_vote2 = 346,832
| percentage2 = 41.78%
| map_image = New Mexico Presidential Election Results by Shaded County, 2008.svg
| map_size = 350px
| map_caption = County Results{{col-start}}{{col-2}}Obama{{legend|#86b6f2|50-60%}}{{legend|#4389e3|60-70%}}{{legend|#1666cb|70-80%}}{{legend|#0645b4|80-90%}}{{col-2}}McCain{{legend|#e27f90|50-60%}}{{legend|#cc2f4a|60-70%}}{{legend|#d40000|70-80%}}{{col-end}}
| title = President
| before_election = George W. Bush
| before_party = Republican Party (United States)
| after_election = Barack Obama
| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)
}}{{ElectionsNM}}

The 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 4, 2008. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New Mexico was won by the Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, by a 15.13% margin of victory; Obama took 56.91% of the vote while his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain of Arizona, took 41.78%. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered it as a safe blue state. Due to the extremely narrow{{Vague|date=December 2016}} margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections, it started out as a swing state, but hypothetical general election match-up polls taken in the state continued to show a big lead for Obama. Obama's leads in the polls in New Mexico increased so much that McCain did not campaign nearly as much there as he did elsewhere, despite it neighboring his home state of Arizona. A large Hispanic and Native American as well as a trending Democratic population put Obama over the top.[1]

Primaries

  • New Mexico Democratic primary, 2008
  • New Mexico Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat&91;2&93;
  2. Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat&91;3&93;
  3. Takeaway: Solid Obama&91;4&93;
  4. Election Projection: Solid Obama&91;5&93;
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat&91;6&93;
  6. Washington Post: Leaning Obama&91;7&93;
  7. Politico: Leaning Obama&91;8&93;
  8. Real Clear Politics: Leaning Obama&91;9&93;
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama&91;7&93;
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat&91;10&93;
  11. New York Times: Solid Democrat&91;11&93;
  12. CNN: Safe Democrat&91;12&93;
  13. NPR: Solid Obama&91;7&93;
  14. MSNBC: Solid Obama&91;7&93;
  15. Fox News: Democrat&91;13&93;
  16. Associated Press: Democrat&91;14&93;
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat&91;15&93;

Polling

{{main|Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#New Mexico|l1=Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: New Mexico}}

Obama won a majority of the pre-election polls taken in the state, including sweeping all of them taken after September 14. The final three polls averaged the Democrat leading 55% to 43%.[16]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,016,376 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,987,438.[17]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $4,535,378. McCain and his interest groups spent $3,606,796.[18] The Democrat ticket visited the state five times to the Republicans' eight times.[19]

Analysis

{{Original research|section|date=December 2016}}The key voting bloc{{According to whom|date=December 2016}} in this state is Hispanics, which make up a plurality of the state's total population with 45%. George W. Bush received over 40% of the Hispanic vote nationally in 2004. This support was enough for Bush to nip John Kerry by approximately 6,000 votes in New Mexico in 2004. In the previous two elections, New Mexico had been a very close swing state. Al Gore won the state by 300 votes in 2000, which was even narrower than the controversial results in Florida. However, after the 2004 presidential election, support for Republicans in the Hispanic community collapsed.{{Citation needed|date=December 2016}} During the 2008 election, New Mexico was regarded as an Obama-leaning state although John McCain was from neighboring Arizona and held similar views on illegal immigration to those of Bush. Ultimately, McCain obtained 30% of the Hispanic vote.{{Citation needed|date=December 2016}}Native Americans also represent a key voting demographic in New Mexico.[20] Obama won the Native American vote, 78–21%, and carried most of the counties within the confines of the Navajo Nation.[21]

The Republican base in New Mexico consists of the more rural southeastern part of the state which, while thinly populated, votes heavily Republican.{{Citation needed|date=December 2016}} Democrats are strongest in the state capital, Santa Fe, and its close-in suburbs. The city of Albuquerque and the southwestern part of the state both lean Democratic, but not as overwhelmingly as does Santa Fe. On a larger context, Southern New Mexico is typically more Republican while Northern New Mexico is traditionally more Democratic, while Albuquerque and other areas in the center tend to swing both ways.{{Citation needed|date=December 2016}}

In 2008, Obama carried the state by a 15-point margin, largely by dominating the Albuquerque area. He won Bernalillo County, home to Albuquerque itself, by 21 points; Kerry had won it by four points in 2004. While McCain dominated the southeastern part of the state, it was not nearly enough to overcome Obama's edge in the Albuquerque area.[22]

During the same election, former Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Udall, who had represented New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, defeated former Republican U.S. Representative Steve Pearce, who had represented New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, for an open U.S. Senate seat that was vacated by Republican Pete Domenici once it was discovered that he had brain cancer. Former Republican U.S. Representative Heather Wilson, who represented New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, vacated her seat to challenge Pearce in the GOP senatorial primary only to lose the nomination to him. As a result, all three of New Mexico's U.S. House seats were up for grabs, and Democrats captured all three of them. At the state level, Democrats increased their majorities in both houses of the New Mexico Legislature, picking up three seats in both the New Mexico House of Representatives and New Mexico Senate.

{{As of|2016|11|alt=As of the 2016 presidential election}}, this is the last election in which Luna County voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results

United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2008
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden472,422 56.91%5
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin346,83241.78%0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez5,3270.64%0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root2,4280.29%0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle1,5970.19%0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente1,5520.19%0
Totals830,158100.00%5
Voter turnout (voting age population)56.4%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Bernalillo County 59.86% 168,406 38.82% 109,212 1.32% 3,701 281,319
Catron County 31.31% 659 66.32% 1,396 2.38% 50 2,105
Chaves County 37.00% 8,160 61.80% 13,630 1.20% 264 22,054
Cibola County 63.12% 3,176 34.12% 1,717 2.76% 139 5,032
Colfax County 54.53% 3,465 44.07% 2,800 1.40% 89 6,354
Curry County 32.31% 4,655 66.52% 9,585 1.17% 169 14,409
De Baca County 34.32% 358 64.81% 676 0.86% 9 1,043
Doña Ana County 57.82% 38,574 40.79% 27,211 1.39% 930 66,715
Eddy County 36.45% 7,289 62.34% 12,468 1.21% 242 19,999
Grant County 59.15% 8,092 39.33% 5,381 1.51% 207 13,680
Guadalupe County 70.85% 1,541 28.28% 615 0.87% 19 2,175
Harding County 41.22% 256 57.49% 357 1.29% 8 621
Hidalgo County 50.87% 990 48.00% 934 1.13% 22 1,946
Lea County 27.37% 5,084 71.61% 13,301 1.02% 190 18,575
Lincoln County 36.47% 3,482 61.86% 5,906 1.68% 160 9,548
Los Alamos County 52.49% 5,709 45.84% 4,986 1.66% 181 10,876
Luna County 51.64% 4,289 46.44% 3,857 1.91% 159 8,305
McKinley County 71.31% 15,993 27.57% 6,183 1.13% 253 22,429
Mora County 78.57% 2,156 20.59% 565 0.84% 23 2,744
Otero County 39.56% 8,602 58.83% 12,791 1.61% 350 21,743
Quay County 38.83% 1,546 59.36% 2,363 1.81% 72 3,981
Rio Arriba County 74.75% 11,245 24.25% 3,648 1.00% 151 15,044
Roosevelt County 34.08% 2,270 64.33% 4,285 1.59% 106 6,661
Sandoval County 38.50% 17,645 59.82% 27,418 1.68% 768 45,831
San Juan County 76.94% 10,128 18.39% 2,421 4.66% 614 13,163
San Miguel County 56.19% 32,102 43.56% 24,887 0.25% 143 57,132
Santa Fe County 76.76% 53,802 22.03% 15,443 1.21% 849 70,094
Sierra County 42.92% 2,351 54.97% 3,011 2.12% 116 5,478
Socorro County 59.37% 4,643 38.50% 3,011 2.14% 167 7,821
Taos County 81.54% 13,384 17.22% 2,827 1.24% 204 16,415
Torrance County 44.41% 3,068 53.87% 3,721 1.72% 119 6,908
Union County 28.39% 492 70.28% 1,218 1.33% 23 1,733
Valencia County 53.00% 15,142 45.61% 13,033 1.39% 397 28,572

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried two of the state's three congressional districts, while John McCain just narrowly carried the other congressional district that simultaneously elected a Democrat to the U.S. House of Representatives.

District McCain Obama Representative
{{ushr|New Mexico|1|1st39.64%60.07%Heather Wilson (110th Congress)
Martin Heinrich (111th Congress)
{{ushr|New Mexico|2|2nd49.97%48.64%Steve Pearce (110th Congress)
Harry Teague (111th Congress)
{{ushr|New Mexico|3|3rd37.79%61.01%Tom Udall (110th Congress)
Ben R. Luján (111th Congress)

Electors

{{main|List of United States presidential electors, 2008}}

Officially the voters of New Mexico cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New Mexico is allocated five electors because it has three congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of five electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all five electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[23] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and of the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body; instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All five were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[24]

  1. Brian Colon
  2. Annadelle Sanchez
  3. Tom Buckner
  4. Christy French
  5. Alvin Warren

References

1. ^{{cite web| last=Cost|first=Jay|author2=Sean Trende |title=Election Review, Part 3: The West|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/01/election_review_part_3_the_wes.html|date=2009-01-18|publisher=RealClearPolitics|accessdate=2009-05-11}}
2. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html|title=D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.|author=|date=|work=dcpoliticalreport.com|access-date=December 19, 2016}}
3. ^Presidential | The Cook Political Report {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential#belowMap |date=May 5, 2015 }}
4. ^{{cite web|author=Adnaan |url=http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/ |title=Track the Electoral College vote predictions |publisher=The Takeaway |date=2008-09-20 |accessdate=2009-11-14 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/ |archivedate=April 22, 2009 }}
5. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.electionprojection.com/2008elections/president08.shtml|title=Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results|author=|date=|work=electionprojection.com|access-date=December 19, 2016}}
6. ^{{cite web|url=http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html|title=Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily|author=|date=|work=electoral-vote.com|access-date=December 19, 2016}}
7. ^1 2 3 Based on Takeaway
8. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html|title=POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com|author=|date=|work=politico.com|access-date=December 19, 2016}}
9. ^RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
10. ^CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081029000000/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08/ |date=October 29, 2008 }}
11. ^{{cite news| url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html?scp=1&sq=electoral%20college%20map&st=cse | title=Electoral College Map | work=The New York Times | accessdate=2010-05-26}}
12. ^{{cite news| url=http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/ | work=CNN | title=October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs | accessdate=2010-05-26}}
13. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/ | title=Winning the Electoral College | work=Fox News | date=2010-04-27}}
14. ^{{cite web|url=http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/|title=roadto270|author=|date=|work=ap.org|access-date=December 19, 2016}}
15. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update|title=Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™|first=Rasmussen|last=Reports|date=|work=rasmussenreports.com|access-date=December 19, 2016}}
16. ^Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
17. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=NM&cand_id=P00000001|title=Page Not Found|author=|date=|work=fec.gov|access-date=December 19, 2016}}
18. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/ | work=CNN | title=Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com | access-date=2010-05-26}}
19. ^{{cite news| url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/candidate.visits/ | work=CNN | title=Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com | accessdate=2010-05-26}}
20. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/election2008/2008/11/paying-attention-to-the-n.html|title=Paying Attention to the Native American Vote|last=|first=|date=|website=|publisher=|access-date=}}
21. ^{{Cite web|date=|url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/new-mexico.html|title=New Mexico - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times|website=elections.nytimes.com|access-date=2016-08-31}}
22. ^{{cite news|title=Election Results 2008 |url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html |publisher=New York Times |accessdate=2009-05-11 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20041103020223/http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/history/ch13.htm |archivedate=November 3, 2004 }}
23. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm |title=Electoral College |accessdate=2008-11-01 |publisher=California Secretary of State |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm |archivedate=October 30, 2008 }}
24. ^New Mexico Secretary of State's office {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081129113359/http://www.sos.state.nm.us/pdf/DemocraticPartyElectors08.pdf |date=November 29, 2008 }}
{{United States presidential election, 2008}}{{2008 U.S. presidential election state results}}{{DEFAULTSORT:United States Presidential Election In New Mexico, 2008}}

3 : 2008 United States presidential election by state|2008 New Mexico elections|United States presidential elections in New Mexico
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