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词条 Atmospheric river
释义

  1. Description

     Scale 

  2. Impacts

     United States 

  3. See also

  4. References

  5. Further reading

  6. External links

{{Weather}}

An atmospheric river (AR) is a narrow corridor or filament of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere. Atmospheric rivers consist of narrow bands of enhanced water vapor transport, typically along the boundaries between large areas of divergent surface air flow, including some frontal zones in association with extratropical cyclones that form over the oceans.[1][2][3][4] Pineapple Express storms are the most commonly represented and recognized type of atmospheric rivers; they are given the name due to the warm water vapor plumes originating over the Hawaiian tropics that follow a path towards California.[5][6]

Description

The term was originally coined by researchers Reginald Newell and Yong Zhu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the early 1990s, to reflect the narrowness of the moisture plumes involved.[1][3][7] Atmospheric rivers are typically several thousand kilometers long and only a few hundred kilometers wide, and a single one can carry a greater flux of water than the Earth's largest river, the Amazon River.[2] There are typically 3–5 of these narrow plumes present within a hemisphere at any given time.

In the current research field of atmospheric rivers the length and width factors described above in conjunction with an integrated water vapor depth greater than 2.0 cm are used as standards to categorize atmospheric river events.[6][12][8][9]

As data modeling techniques progress, integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is becoming a more common data type used to interpret atmospheric rivers. Its strength lies in its ability to show the transportation of water vapor over multiple time steps instead of a stagnant measurement of water vapor depth in a specific air column (IWV). In addition IVT is more directly attributed to orographic precipitation, a key factor in the production of intense rainfall and subsequent flooding.[9] For instance the water vapor image to the left shows two rivers on 5 December 2015: the first, stretching from the Caribbean to the United Kingdom, caused by Storm Desmond, and the second originating from the Philippines is crossing Pacific Ocean to the west coast of North America.

Scale

The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography released a five-level scale in February 2019 to categorize atmospheric rivers, ranging from "weak" to "exceptional" in strength, or "beneficial" to "hazardous" in impact. The scale was developed by F. Martin Ralph, director of CW3E, who collaborated with Jonathan Rutz from the National Weather Service and other experts.[10] The scale considers both the amount of water vapor transported and the duration of the event. Atmospheric rivers receive a preliminary rank according to the 3-hour average maximum vertically integrated water vapor transport. Those lasting less than 24 hours are demoted by one rank, while those lasting longer than 48 hours are increased by one rank.[11]

Examples of different atmospheric river categories include the following historical storms:[10][12]

  1. February 2, 2017; lasted 24 hours
  2. November 19–20, 2016; lasted 42 hours
  3. October 14–15, 2016; lasted 36 hours and produced 5–10 inches of rainfall
  4. January 8–9, 2017; lasted 36 hours and produced 14 inches of rainfall
  5. December 29, 1996–January 2, 1997; lasted 100 hours and caused >$1 billion in damage

Typically, the Oregon coast averages one Cat 4 atmospheric river (AR) each year; Washington state averages one Cat 4 AR every two years; the Bay Area averages one Cat 4 AR every three years; and southern California, which typically experiences one Cat 2 or Cat 3 AR each year, averages one Cat 4 AR every ten years.[12]

Impacts

Atmospheric rivers have a central role in the global water cycle. On any given day, atmospheric rivers account for over 90% of the global meridional (north-south) water vapor transport, yet they cover less than 10% of the Earth's circumference.[2] Atmospheric rivers are also known to contribute to about 22% of total global runoff.[13]

They also are the major cause of extreme precipitation events that cause severe flooding in many mid-latitude, westerly coastal regions of the world, including the West Coast of North America,[14][15][16][17] Western Europe,[18][19][20], the west coast of North Africa[3], the Iberian Peninsula, Iran and New Zealand[13]. Equally, the absence of atmospheric rivers has been linked with the occurrence of droughts in several parts of the world including South Africa, Spain and Portugal [13].

United States

The inconsistency of California's rainfall is due to the variability in strength and quantity of these storms, which can produce strenuous effects on California's water budget. The factors described above make California a perfect case study to show the importance of proper water management and prediction of these storms.[6] The significance atmospheric rivers have for the control of coastal water budgets juxtaposed against their creation of detrimental floods can be constructed and studied by looking at California and the surrounding coastal region of the western United States. In this region atmospheric rivers have contributed 30-50% of total annual rainfall according to a 2013 study.[21] The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA) report, released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) on November 23, 2018[22] confirmed that along the U.S. western coast, landfalling atmospheric rivers "account for 30%–40% of precipitation and snowpack. These landfalling atmospheric rivers "are associated with severe flooding events in California and other western states."[5][17][23]

The USGCRP team of thirteen federal agencies—the DOA, DOC, DOD, DOE, HHS, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, NASA, NSF, Smithsonian Institution, and the USAID—with the assistance of "1,000 people, including 300 leading scientists, roughly half from outside the government" reported that, "As the world warms, the "landfalling atmospheric rivers on the West Coast are likely to increase" in "frequency and severity" because of "increasing evaporation and higher atmospheric water vapor levels in the atmosphere."[22][24][25][26][27]

Based on the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) analyses, a team led by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Paul J. Neiman, concluded in 2011 that landfalling ARs were "responsible for nearly all the annual peak daily flow (APDF)s in western Washington" from 1998 through 2009.[28]

The front cover of the NCA4 report features a natural-color NASA image of conditions over the northeastern Pacific on February 20, 2017. The report said that this AR brought a "stunning" end to the American West's 5-year drought with "some parts of California received nearly twice as much rain in a single deluge as normally falls in the preceding 5 months (October–February)". NASA Earth Observatory's Jesse Allen created the front cover visualization with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite.[29]

See also

  • Tropical upper tropospheric trough, a band of moisture common in tropical regions
  • ARkStorm, a hypothetical storm by the same name that could affect California
  • Great Flood of 1862 (massive flooding in US West)
  • Pineapple Express

References

1. ^1 {{cite journal|last=Zhu |first=Yong |author2=Reginald E. Newell |title=Atmospheric rivers and bombs |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |year=1994 |volume=21 |issue=18 |pages=1999–2002 |doi=10.1029/94GL01710 |url=http://paos.colorado.edu/~dcn/ATOC6020/papers/AtmosphericRivers_94GL01710.pdf |bibcode=1994GeoRL..21.1999Z |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20100610063041/http://paos.colorado.edu/~dcn/ATOC6020/papers/AtmosphericRivers_94GL01710.pdf |archivedate=2010-06-10 |df= }}
2. ^1 2 {{cite journal|last=Zhu|first=Yong|author2=Reginald E. Newell|title=A Proposed Algorithm for Moisture Fluxes from Atmospheric Rivers|journal=Monthly Weather Review |year=1998|volume=126|issue=3|pages= 725–735|doi=10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0725:APAFMF>2.0.CO;2|issn=1520-0493|bibcode = 1998MWRv..126..725Z }}
3. ^1 2 {{cite journal|last=Kerr|first=Richard A.|title=Rivers in the Sky Are Flooding The World With Tropical Waters|journal=Science|date=28 July 2006|volume=313|issue=5786|pages=435|doi=10.1126/science.313.5786.435|url=http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/~dettinge/atmos_rivers.science.pdf|pmid=16873624}}
4. ^{{cite conference | first = Allen B. | last = White | date = 2009-10-08 | title = The NOAA coastal atmospheric river observatory | url = http://ams.confex.com/ams/34Radar/techprogram/paper_155601.htm | conference = 34th Conference on Radar Meteorology | conferenceurl = http://ams.confex.com/ams/34Radar/techprogram/program_567.htm|display-authors=etal}}
5. ^1 {{Cite journal|last=Dettinger|first=Michael|date=2011-06-01|title=Climate Change, Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes1|journal=JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association|language=en|volume=47|issue=3|pages=514–523|doi=10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00546.x|issn=1752-1688|bibcode=2011JAWRA..47..514D}}
6. ^1 2 {{Cite journal|last=Dettinger|first=Michael D.|last2=Ralph|first2=Fred Martin|last3=Das|first3=Tapash|last4=Neiman|first4=Paul J.|last5=Cayan|first5=Daniel R.|date=2011-03-24|title=Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of California|url=http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/3/2/445|journal=Water|language=en|volume=3|issue=2|pages=445–478|doi=10.3390/w3020445}}
7. ^{{cite journal|last=Newell|first=Reginald E.|author2=Nicholas E. Newell |author3=Yong Zhu |author4=Courtney Scott |title=Tropospheric rivers? – A pilot study|journal=Geophys. Res. Lett.|year=1992|volume=19|issue=24|pages=2401–2404|doi=10.1029/92GL02916|url=http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/1992/92GL02916.shtml|bibcode=1992GeoRL..19.2401N}}
8. ^{{Cite journal|last=Guan|first=Bin|last2=Waliser|first2=Duane E.|last3=Molotch|first3=Noah P.|last4=Fetzer|first4=Eric J.|last5=Neiman|first5=Paul J.|date=2011-08-24|title=Does the Madden–Julian Oscillation Influence Wintertime Atmospheric Rivers and Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada?|journal=Monthly Weather Review|volume=140|issue=2|pages=325–342|doi=10.1175/MWR-D-11-00087.1|issn=0027-0644|bibcode=2012MWRv..140..325G}}
9. ^1 {{Cite journal|last=Guan|first=Bin|last2=Waliser|first2=Duane E.|date=2015-12-27|title=Detection of atmospheric rivers: Evaluation and application of an algorithm for global studies|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |volume=120 |issue=24 |pages=2015JD024257 |doi=10.1002/2015JD024257|issn=2169-8996|bibcode=2015JGRD..12012514G}}
10. ^1 {{cite web |url=http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/CW3E-Releases-New-Scale-to-Characterize-Strength-and-Impacts-of-Atmospheric-Rivers/ |title=CW3E Releases New Scale to Characterize Strength and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers |date=February 5, 2019 |publisher=Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes |accessdate=16 February 2019}}
11. ^1 {{cite journal |doi=10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1 |title=A Scale to Characterize the Strength and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers |author1=Ralph, F. Martin |author2=Rutz, Jonathan J. |author3=Cordeira, Jason M. |author4=Dettinger, Michael |author5=Anderson, Michael |author6=Reynolds, David |author7=Schick, Lawrence J. |author8=Smallcomb, Chris |date=February 2019 |journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}}
12. ^1 {{cite press release |url=https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-scale-characterize-strength-and-impacts-atmospheric-river-storms |title=New Scale to Characterize Strength and Impacts of Atmospheric River Storms |date=February 5, 2019 |publisher=Scripps Institute of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego |accessdate=16 February 2019}}
13. ^1 2 {{Cite journal|last=Paltan|first=Homero|last2=Waliser|first2=Duane|last3=Lim|first3=Wee Ho|last4=Guan|first4=Bin|last5=Yamazaki|first5=Dai|last6=Pant|first6=Raghav|last7=Dadson|first7=Simon|date=2017-10-25|title=Global Floods and Water Availability Driven by Atmospheric Rivers|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|language=en|volume=44|issue=20|pages=10,387–10,395|doi=10.1002/2017gl074882|issn=0094-8276|bibcode=2017GeoRL..4410387P}}
14. ^{{cite conference|first=Paul J. |last=Neiman |date=2009-06-08 |title=Landfalling Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers: From Extreme Events to Long-term Consequences |url=http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim/talks/pdf/Neiman_Talk2010.pdf |conference=The 2010 Mountain Climate Research Conference |conferenceurl=http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim/ |display-authors=etal }}{{dead link|date=October 2016 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}
15. ^{{cite journal|last=Neiman|first=Paul J.|title=Diagnosis of an Intense Atmospheric River Impacting the Pacific Northwest: Storm Summary and Offshore Vertical Structure Observed with COSMIC Satellite Retrievals|journal=Monthly Weather Review|year=2008|volume=136|issue=11|pages=4398–4420|doi=10.1175/2008MWR2550.1|url=http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/~dettinge/neiman_cosmic08.pdf|bibcode = 2008MWRv..136.4398N |display-authors=etal}}
16. ^{{cite journal|last=Neiman|first=Paul J.|title=Meteorological Characteristics and Overland Precipitation Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the West Coast of North America Based on Eight Years of SSM/I Satellite Observations|journal=Journal of Hydrometeorology |year=2008|volume=9|issue=1|pages=22–47|doi=10.1175/2007JHM855.1|url=http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/~dettinge/Neiman_Ar-JHM08.pdf|bibcode = 2008JHyMe...9...22N |display-authors=etal}}
17. ^1 2 {{cite journal|last=Ralph|first=F. Martin|title=Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers|journal=Geophys. Res. Lett.|year=2006|volume=33|issue=13|pages=L13801|doi=10.1029/2006GL026689|url=http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/~dettinge/atmos_rivers.pdf|bibcode=2006GeoRL..3313801R|display-authors=etal}}
18. ^{{cite web|title=Atmospheric river of moisture targets Britain and Ireland|url=http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/3838|work=CIMSS Satellite Blog|date=November 19, 2009}}
19. ^{{cite journal|last=Stohl|first=A. |author2=Forster, C. |author3=Sodermann, H. |title=Remote sources of water vapor forming precipitation on the Norwegian west coast at 60°N–a tale of hurricanes and an atmospheric river|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|date=March 2008|volume=113|issue=D5 |pages=n/a |url=| doi = 10.1029/2007jd009006 |bibcode=2008JGRD..113.5102S}}
20. ^{{cite journal|last=Lavers|first=David A|author2=R. P. Allan |author3=E. F. Wood |author4=G. Villarini |author5=D. J. Brayshaw |author6=A. J. Wade |title=Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|date=6 December 2011|volume=38|issue=23|pages=n/a|doi=10.1029/2011GL049783|url=http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/PAPERS/Lavers11GRL.pdf|accessdate=12 August 2012|bibcode = 2011GeoRL..3823803L |citeseerx=10.1.1.722.4841}}
21. ^{{Cite journal|last=Dettinger|first=Michael D.|date=2013-06-28|title=Atmospheric Rivers as Drought Busters on the U.S. West Coast|journal=Journal of Hydrometeorology|volume=14|issue=6|pages=1721–1732|doi=10.1175/JHM-D-13-02.1|issn=1525-755X|bibcode=2013JHyMe..14.1721D}}
22. ^1 {{cite news |url=https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-bn/index.html |title=Climate change will shrink US economy and kill thousands, government report warns |first1=Jen |last1=Christensen |first2=Michael |last2=Nedelman |newspaper=CNN |date=November 23, 2018 |access-date=November 23, 2018}}
23. ^{{citation|series=National Climate Assessment (NCA) |title=Chapter 2: Our Changing Climate|date=November 23, 2018|url=https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/|format=PDF|publisher=USGCRP|access-date=November 23, 2018|location=Washington, DC}}
24. ^{{cite report |last1=Wehner |first1=M. F. |first2=J. R. |last2=Arnold |first3=T. |last3=Knutson |first4=K. E. |last4=Kunkel |first5=A. N. |last5=LeGrande |date=2017 |title=Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires |series=Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment |volume=1 |editor-last1=Wuebbles |editor-first1=D. J. |editor-first2=D. W. |editor-last2=Fahey |editor-first3=K. A. |editor-last3=Hibbard |editor-first4=D. J. |editor-last4=Dokken |editor-first5=B. C. |editor-last5=Stewart |editor-first6=T. K. |editor-last6=Maycock |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program |location=Washington, DC |pages=231–256 |doi=10.7930/J0CJ8BNN}}
25. ^Dettinger, M., 2011: Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California–a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 514–523. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00546.x.
26. ^Warner, M. D., C. F. Mass, and E. P. Salathé Jr., 2015: Changes in winter atmospheric rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 climate models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16 (1), 118–128. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-14-0080.1.
27. ^Gao, Y., J. Lu, L. R. Leung, Q. Yang, S. Hagos, and Y. Qian, 2015: Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (17), 7179–7186. doi:10.1002/2015GL065435.
28. ^{{cite journal |last1=Neiman |first1=Paul. J. |first2=L. J. |last2=Schick |first3=F. M. |last3=Ralph |first4=M. |last4=Hughes |first5=G. A. |last5=Wick |date=December 2011 |title=Flooding in western Washington: The connection to atmospheric rivers. |journal=American Meteorological Society (AMS) |volume=12 |issue=6 |pages=1337–1358 |doi=10.1175/2011JHM1358.1 }}
29. ^{{cite report |date=October 2017 |title=Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) |series=Fourth National Climate Assessment |volume=1 |editor-last1=Wuebbles |editor-first1=D. J. |editor-first2=D. W. |editor-last2=Fahey |editor-first3=K. A. |editor-last3=Hibbard |editor-first4=D. J. |editor-last4=Dokken |editor-first5=B. C. |editor-last5=Stewart |editor-first6=T. K. |editor-last6=Maycock |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program |location=Washington, DC |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR2017_FullReport.pdf |format=PDF |pages=470 |doi=10.7930/J0J964J6}}

Further reading

  • {{cite journal |title=When It Rains, It Pours: Historic Drought and Atmospheric Rivers |author=Les Rowntree |date= July 27, 2015 |publisher=Bay Nature magazine |url=http://baynature.org/article/when-it-rains-it-pours/ |accessdate=November 9, 2016}}

External links

  • [https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/arportal/about/ NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory: Atmospheric River Information Page]
  • [https://web.archive.org/web/20100528121959/http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/outreach/resources/handouts/atmos_rivers.pdf NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory: Atmospheric Rivers] (PDF brochure)
  • [https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=precip_3hr/winkel3/ Current map of predicted global precipitation for the next three hours]

2 : Atmospheric dynamics|Atmospheric circulation
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