“Chinese property bubble (2005–11)”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

The 2005 Chinese property bubble was a real estate bubble in residential and commercial real estate in China. The New York Times reported that the bubble started to deflate in 2011, while observing increased complaints that members of the middle-class were unable to afford homes in large cities.^[2] The deflation of the property bubble is seen as one of the primary causes for China's declining economic growth in 2013.^[2]

The phenomenon had seen average housing prices in the country triple from 2005 to 2009,^[4] possibly driven by both government policies and Chinese cultural attitudes. High price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios for property and the high number of unoccupied residential and commercial units have been cited as evidence of a bubble. Later, average housing prices in the country increased between 2010 and 2013,^[5]

Critics of the bubble theory point to China's relatively conservative mortgage lending standards and trends of increasing urbanization and rising incomes as proof that property prices are justified.^[1]

History

Economic contributors

There have been many factors that may have led to rising housing prices. Possible contributors include low interest rates and increased bank lending,^[2] beginning in 2003 under Wen Jiabao which allowed cheap credit for the construction and purchase of property while making competing debt investments less appealing. During the bubble, local government relied on land sales for income (accounting for up to 50% of revenue), incentivizing the continued sale and development of land.^[3] Limited access to foreign investments for Chinese citizens increased the appeal of domestic investments such as property.^[4] Chinese citizens also faced cultural pressures encouraging home ownership, particularly for men seeking a wife.^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]

Responding to the 2007–2012 global financial crisis, the spending from the China economic stimulus program may have found its way into real estate, contributing to the bubble.^[14]^[9]

Non-economic contributors

The Hukou system in China is similar to the US's green card system. For citizens of the PRC, Hukou residency status based on cities indicates what kind of medical and education service he or she can obtain from the local Chinese government. Hukou residency is not determined by where people actually live, but by their parents' Hukou status. Fairly good education, employment opportunities and medical services are available only in big cities in China, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and some second tier cities, because China is a developing country. Hukous' premiums in big cities in China should be evaluated properly when justifying the Chinese property bubble. For instance, the education and medical premium of a Beijing Hukou can be evaluated at RMB 600,000 ($100,000), which is popular cited on the Chinese internet. Most government and state-owned enterprises only provide interview opportunities to people with the local Hukou.

Grey income: According to independent economist Andy Xie, the scale of China's grey income is very large- possibly one-tenth of GDP. Most grey incomes are invested in the real estate market of tier 1 and tier 2 cities, which contributes to the fact that the leverage rate of Chinese properties are small compared to the property bubbles in other countries. The normalization of grey incomes in China fed the property bubble in the long run.

Rising fears of a bubble

Between 2005 and 2011, average housing prices rose rapidly in the Chinese real estate market. Analysts argued over whether this rise was a result of a speculative real estate bubble, or genuine increases in demand. Evidence for a bubble included significant numbers of vacant or under-performing commercial and residential properties^[10]^[11]^[12] and the continued construction of property despite these facts,^[13]^[14] including an estimated 64 million vacant apartments.^[15] There were high price-to-income ratios for real estate, such as in Beijing where the ratio is 27 to 1 years, five times the international average,^[16](27 to 1 is based on a double income household so 54 to 1 for a single income household of roughly 6,500 USD/yr) and high price-to-rent ratios for real estate, such as in Beijing where the ratio is 500:1 months compared to the global ratio of 300:1 months^[17] There was a weak secondary market for Chinese homes, with the ratio of secondary to primary residential property transactions at 0.26 for the first half of 2009 (four times as many new home purchases as secondary sales). Comparably, Hong Kong had a ratio of 7.25, and the U.S. had a ratio of 13.45.^[18]

Contributing to the bubble were Chinese companies in the chemical, steel, textile and shoe industries opening real estate divisions, expecting higher returns than in their core businesses^[19] During this period, residential housing investment as a share of China's GDP has tripled from 2% in 2000 to 6% in 2011, similar to the peak of the U.S. housing bubble.^[20]

Analysts, including Cao Jianhai, professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,^[21] Andy Xie, a Shanghai economist,^[22] and Zhang Xin, a CEO of Beijing real estate developer SOHO China^[23] warned of the threat of a bubble and the economic stagnation that would follow. In response to fears of a bubble, in the summer of 2011, Standard & Poor's downgraded its outlook for China real estate development sector to negative from stable, following a tightening of credit conditions in the country and slower sales.^[24]

However, trends of increasing urbanization and rising incomes^[25] in China that could continue to support real estate prices. The World Bank stated in a November 2009 report that Chinese home prices had not outpaced increases in incomes on a nationwide level, which dispelled worries of a looming bubble.^[25] However, in its 17 March 2010 quarterly report, the group said China needed to raise interest rates to contain the risk of a property bubble.^[26] In China, there were comparatively conservative mortgage lending practices, particularly in contrast to those at the height of the United States housing bubble^[27]

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Access China service released a follow up report to the October 2010 report "CHAMPS: China’s fastest-growing cities" entitled "Building Rome in a day: The sustainability of China’s housing boom".^[28] forecasting the population and average income in close to 300 Chinese cities, and the subsequent demand for housing in China which during the next decade. The report stated that "with China’s property market being an important global economic indicator, China’s housing boom will present opportunities for investors in sectors such as furniture, cars and building materials." Regarding China’s urban population, the report forecasts that between 2011 and 2020 it will "increase by 26.1% or over 160 million people, while urban per head disposable incomes will increase by 2.6-fold to 51,310 RMB (about US$7,500 at current exchange rates)."^[29]

Deflation of the bubble and effects on growth

Between 2010 and 2011, policies were enacted to curb the bubble from worsening or prevent it from occurring. The Chinese cabinet announced in 2010 it would monitor capital flows to "stop overseas speculative funds from jeopardizing China's property market" and also begin requiring families purchasing a second home to make at least a 40% down-payment.^[30]

In early 2011, Beijing banned the sale of homes to those who have not lived in Beijing for five years. Beijing also limited the number of homes a native Beijing family could own to two, and allowed only one home for non-native Beijing families.^[31] By July 2011, the Chinese Government raised interest rates for the third time that year^[32] A new nationwide real estate sales tax was introduced in China in late 2009 as a measure to curb speculative investing.^[33] A mortgage discount for first-time property buyers – which had offered fixed, 5% 20-year mortgages at just above 4% – was also eliminated.^[22]

The deflation of the bubble began in the summer of 2011, when home prices began to slow or fall in Chinese cities.^[34] The end of the property bubble is seen as one of the primary causes for China's declining economic growth in 2012.^[2]

As told in an Al Jazeera documentary called Chinese Dreamland by David Borenstein, China's technocrats planned to avoid the late-2000s financial crisis and economic recession by creating the greatest housing boom in human history, with then-Premier Wen Jiabao proclaiming that "confidence is more important than gold or capital" to maintain employment and GDP growth. China ending up using more concrete in two years than the United States did during the entire 20th century. The property bubble peaked in 2009. By 2012, as large established population centers were saturated, developers were building new communities in rural areas in order to keep up the momentum. Since the best way to market countryside housing was "internationalisation" by depicting them as global commerce metropolises, real estate developers enlisted "rent-a-foreigner" companies to stage "dazzling spectacles where their foreign employees are presented as famous entertainers, important businessmen, top-20 models, diplomats, architects". Borenstein observed that these "erotic fantasies" [fueled a] speculative frenzy" which went hand-in-hand with overbuilding in order to maintain the facade of confidence, discouraging negative financial reports which showed that demand was well overstated or even not justified. By 2014 developers were facing a growing backlash, from rural farmers whose land was expropriated without proper compensation, and from buyers upset by the poor quality and/or that other units in the same development being sold at steep discounts.^[35]^[36]^[37] This bubble ended up creating ghost cities that were abandoned incomplete or finished but largely unoccupied. Most of these empty developments are found in minor cities where state-run industries and mines had closed down, and new housing projects were seen by local officials as a means of diversification as well as cashing in on the property bubble.^[38]

The property bubble has resulted in poor quality design and construction, ending up in buildings often unfinished and/or unoccupied. Developers and contractors often cut corners to pocket money, while there is often a shortage of skilled labor, and projects often have short time constraints. Austin Williams wrote that this trend was consistent with capitalism where “Its early stages usually involve building shit, making a profit, and moving on to the next deal – even if the building falls down soon after.” In addition, long-lasting buildings are less profitable that those buildings shoddily built and rebuilt during the same time span; indeed repeated demolition and construction counts toward GDP economic growth.^[38]^[39]

City statistics

See also

References

1. ^{{Cite news |last = Hwang |first = Yukon |date = 11 February 2014 |title = Do not fear a Chinese property bubble |url = http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2014/02/11/do-not-fear-a-chinese-property-bubble/ |work = ft.com |accessdate = 13 March 2014 }}
2. ^{{cite web |url= http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2010-01/14/content_12808553.htm|title= China's real estate bubble, a heated debate|author= |date= 2010-01-14|work= |publisher= Xinhua|accessdate=2010-01-13}}
3. ^{{cite news |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/26/opinion/26iht-edcohen.html?pagewanted=2&ref=global|title= A Woman Burns|author= |date= 2010-01-25|work= |publisher= The New York Times|accessdate=2010-01-25 | first=Roger | last=Cohen}}
4. ^{{cite web |url= http://www.bonlive.com/11/62/1818-real-estate-bubble-in-china-part-1.shtml|title= Real Estate Bubble in China? Part 1|author= |date= |work= |publisher= BON TV|accessdate=1 February 2010|quote= Chinese investors don't have a lot of options that they're allowed. They can't invest overseas unless they already have money overseas. There is -- a lot of markets in China aren't well developed -- like there's no bond market in China. So, they can put their money in a bank and not earn very much. They can put their money in government bonds and not earn very much. They can put their money in the stock market, but they've seen over the past two years, if not before, that the stock market goes down as well as up....So, viewing these limited investment opportunities, people look at real estate and they say, 'You can't lose'. (9:50 - 11:00)}}
5. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.justlistedcalgary.ca/files/14/Beijing_issues_new_rules_to_limit_house_purchase.pdf|title= Price pressure on the home front|author= Yu Tianyu|date= 2010-01-04|work= |publisher= China Daily|accessdate=2015-05-14|quote= If you're not able to settle down in Beijing, that's considered a big failure. In order not to fail, you have to buy an apartment in the city.}}
6. ^{{cite web |url= http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2009/200912/20091209/article_422094.htm|title= Pitching a tent and a message|author= Zha Minjie|date= 2009-12-09|work= |publisher= Shanghai Daily|accessdate=2010-01-13}}
7. ^{{cite web |url= http://www.businessinsider.com/the-chinese-real-estate-bubble-is-the-most-obvious-bubble-ever-2010-1#there-are-also-demographic-factors-6|title= Why Shanghai Real Estate Is The Most Obvious Bubble Ever|author= |date= 2010-01-13|work= |publisher= The Business Insider|accessdate=2010-01-25}}
8. ^{{cite web |url= http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2010/201003/20100310/article_430703.htm|title= Blaming house bubble on mothers-in-law|author= |date= 2010-03-10|work= |publisher= Shanghai Daily|accessdate=13 March 2010}}
9. ^{{cite web |url= http://www.bonlive.com/11/62/1819-real-estate-bubble-in-china-part-2.shtml|title= Real Estate Bubble in China? Part 2|author= |date= |work= |publisher= BON TV|accessdate=1 February 2010|quote= The government announced a big stimulus package that was about 486 billion U.S. dollars, but that actually was not the big stimulus. The big stimulus was they told the banks, 'Go out and lend', and the banks lent 1.4 trillion U.S. dollars this year and actually increased the money supply by more than a third in the process of doing that. A lot of this money, the evidence seems to indicate, made its way, whether intentionally or unintentionally, into the construction and property sector. (4:38 - 5:20)}}
10. ^{{cite web |url= http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29330_Page2.html|title= Is China headed toward collapse?|author= Javers, Eamon|date= 2009-11-10|work= |publisher= Politico.com|accessdate=2010-01-02|quote= And the bears also keep a close eye on anecdotal reports from the ground level in China, like a recent posting on a blog called The Peking Duck about shopping at Beijing’s 'stunningly dysfunctional, catastrophic mall, called The Place.'}}
11. ^{{cite web|author=Al-Jazeera|title=China's Empty City|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk|format=video|publisher=YouTube|date=2009-11-09}}
12. ^{{cite news |url= http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1971284,00.html|title= China's Property: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble|author= Powell, Bill|date= 2010-03-22|work= |publisher= Time|accessdate=13 March 2010|quote= In Beijing, vast swaths of commercial space sit vacant – including floors of retail space right next to the iconic Water Cube, the swimming venue for the 2008 Olympics.}}
13. ^{{cite news |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/business/economy/29view.html|title= Dangers of an Overheated China |author= Cowen, Tyler|date= 2009-11-28|work= |publisher= The New York Times|accessdate=2010-01-02|quote= In Shanghai, the central business district appears to have high vacancy rates, yet building continues.}}
14. ^{{cite web |url= https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1228/economy-ponzi-debt-peking-china-bubble.html|title= The China Bubble|author= Epstein, Gady|date= 09-12-10|work= |publisher= Forbes.com|accessdate=2010-01-02|quote= As is typical in the later stages of property booms, many investors in China appear to have discarded rental yields as a measure of how much a building is worth in favor of greater-fool pricing. In downtown Beijing office towers sold this year for $400 per square foot, despite the fact that many were unleased and many more are under construction.}}
15. ^{{cite web|title=Crisis in China: 64 million empty apartments|url=http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Crisis-in-China:-64-million-empty-apartments-19459.html|accessdate=9 August 2011|work=AsiaNews|date=15 September 2010}}
16. ^{{cite web |url= http://china.globaltimes.cn/society/2009-09/465135.html|title= An affordable home for every family, Chongqing official promises |author= Xu Shenglan|date= 2009-09-08|work= |publisher= Global Times|accessdate=2010-01-13}}
17. ^{{cite web |url= http://www.businessinsider.com/the-chinese-real-estate-bubble-is-the-most-obvious-bubble-ever-2010-1#prices-are-way-out-of-whack-compared-to-global-standards-3|title= Why Shanghai Real Estate Is The Most Obvious Bubble Ever|author= |date= 2010-01-13|work= |publisher= The Business Insider|accessdate=2010-01-25}}
18. ^{{cite web |url= http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2009/12/18/china-goes-wrong-way-on-property-taxes/|title= China Goes Wrong Way on Property Taxes|author= Chovanec, Patrick|date= 2009-12-18|work= |publisher= |accessdate=13 March 2010}}
19. ^{{cite web|url=http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/bloomberg-specials/20525-chinas-property-bubble-may-lead-to-us-style-real-estate-slump.html |title=China’s property bubble may lead to US-style real-estate slump |author=Roberts, Dexter |date=2010-01-05 |work= |publisher= |accessdate=2010-01-07 |quote=Companies in the chemical, steel, textile and shoe industries have started up property divisions, too: The chance of a quick return is much higher than in their primary business. |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20100108084021/http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/bloomberg-specials/20525-chinas-property-bubble-may-lead-to-us-style-real-estate-slump.html |archivedate=8 January 2010 }}
20. ^{{cite web|last=Thompson|first=Derek|title=Chart of the Day: Is This the Chinese Housing Bubble?|url=https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/03/chart-of-the-day-is-this-the-chinese-housing-bubble/72578/|accessdate=9 August 2011|work=The Atlantic|date=16 March 2011}}
21. ^{{cite web |url= http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0414/1224244628269.html|title= Property prices in China set to halve|author= |date= 2009-04-14|work= |publisher= The Irish Times |accessdate=17 March 2010}}
22. ^¹{{cite news |url= http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1971284,00.html|title= China's Property: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble|author= Powell, Bill|date= 2010-03-22|work= |publisher= Time|accessdate=13 March 2010}}
23. ^¹{{cite web |url= http://seekingalpha.com/article/185740-interview-with-a-chinese-real-estate-insider|title= Interview with a Chinese Real Estate Insider|author= |date= |work= |publisher= China International Business|accessdate=1 February 2010|quote= We don’t really have a view on when it will end; [but] we do have a view that this is a bubble. Real estate is very much driven by government policy. This year we have RMB 4 trillion through the stimulus package, another RMB 6 trillion from municipality bonds, another RMB 10 trillion from bank loans: We have RMB 20 trillion in the system and it all finds its way to real estate.}}
24. ^{{cite news |url= http://www.chinesecrash.com/1/post/2011/06/sp-downgrades-china-developers.html|title= S&P Downgrades China Developers |publisher= http://www.chinesecrash.com”|accessdate= 2011-06-18 }}
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26. ^{{cite web |url= https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aABUF7oOD4Hk|title= China Must Pare Stimulus to Counter Bubbles, World Bank Says|author= Leung, Sophie|date= 2010-03-17|work= |publisher= Bloomberg|accessdate=17 March 2010}}
27. ^{{cite news |url= http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1971284-2,00.html|title= China's Property: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble|author= Powell, Bill|date= 2010-03-22|work= |publisher= Time|accessdate=13 March 2010}}
28. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=china_realestate_wp|title=The Sustainability of China’s Housing Boom}}
29. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.sourcewire.com/releases/rel_display.php?relid=63938|title=China property market ‘not a bubble’, says EIU in new report}}
30. ^{{cite news |url= https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/10/AR2010011002767.html|title= In China, fear of a real estate bubble|author= Mufson, Steven|date=2010-01-11|work= |publisher= The Washington Post|accessdate=2010-01-25}}
31. ^{{cite web |url=http://www0.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-02/16/content_12028324.htm |title=Beijing issues new rules to limit house purchase |publisher=China Daily}}
32. ^{{cite news |url= http://www.chinesecrash.com/1/post/2011/07/attempts-to-stop-the-chinese-bubble.html|title= Attempts to stop the Chinese bubble |publisher= http://www.chinesecrash.com”|accessdate=2011-07-22}}
33. ^{{cite news |url= http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dfd473ec-e5a7-11de-b5d7-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OmnqNeMb|title= China revives property tax to avert bubble|author= Jamil Anderlini, Beijing|date= 2009-12-10|work= |publisher= Chinese Economy|accessdate=2010-01-07}}
34. ^{{cite web|title=The China Real Estate Boom May Be Finished: Now What? |url=http://www.businessinsider.com/china-real-estate-boom-is-finished-now-what-2011-6|work=Business Insider|accessdate=9 August 2011|date=9 June 2011}}
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37. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.news.com.au/world/rentaforeigner-industry-playing-large-role-in-chinas-construction-boom/news-story/a53f2fa93806c0d5c4d0afe46f32fae6|title=China’s bizarre rent-a-foreigner industry|publisher=|accessdate=29 July 2017}}
38. ^¹{{cite web|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/03/31/what-china-is-doing-about-its-450-million-square-meters-of-unsold-housing/#275046c654e3|title=What China Is Doing About Its 450 Million Square Meters Of Unsold Housing|first=Wade|last=Shepard|publisher=|accessdate=29 July 2017}}
39. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.citymetric.com/skylines/half-houses-will-be-demolished-within-20-years-disposable-cities-china-1470|title="Half the houses will be demolished within 20 years": On the disposable cities of China|publisher=|accessdate=29 July 2017}}
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41. ^{{cite news |url= http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/china/Price-History|title= China property boom continues relentlessly|date= 2013-12-12|work= |publisher= Global property guide|accessdate=10 September 2015}}
42. ^{{cite news |url= https://medium.com/@RentApartmentShanghai/shanghai-rental-market-2015-47eb2e221583|title= Shanghai Real Estate Trends 2015|author= Medium|date= 2015-01-04|work= |publisher= Medium Inc|accessdate=6 January 2015}}
43. ^{{cite web |url= https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1228/economy-ponzi-debt-peking-china-bubble.html|title= The China Bubble|author= Epstein, Gady|date=2009-12-10|work= |publisher= Forbes.com|accessdate=2010-01-02|quote= Tianjin, a gritty metropolis not far from Beijing, will soon have more prime office space than will be filled in a quarter-century at the current absorption rate.}}
44. ^¹²³{{cite web |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/10/business/global/chinese-economy-shows-a-second-month-of-anemic-growth.html|title= Affirming Slowdown, China Reports Second Month of Scant Economic Growth|last= Bradsher|first= Keith|date= 9 June 2012|publisher=New York Times|accessdate=11 June 2012|quote=China’s leaders deliberately popped a real estate bubble last summer because of concerns that middle-class families had been priced out of homeownership in many cities}}
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