“Labor force in the United States”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

The labor force (workforce in British English) is the actual number of people available for work and is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. The U.S. labor force was approximately 160 million persons in January 2018.^[1] By Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) definitions, the labor force is defined as: "Included are persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces."^[2] The U.S. labor force has risen each year since 1960, with the exception of the period following the Great Recession, when it remained below 2008 levels from 2009-2011.^[1]

The labor force participation rate, LFPR (or economic activity rate, EAR), is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort (national population of the same age range). Much like other countries in the West during the later half of the 20th century, the labor force participation rate increased significantly, largely due to the increasing number of women entering the workplace.

In the U.S., the overall labor force participation rate has declined steadily since 2000, due primarily to the aging and retirement of the Baby Boom generation. Analyzing labor force participation trends in the prime working age (25-54) cohort helps separate the impact of an aging population from other demographic factors (e.g., gender, race, and education) and government policies. The Congressional Budget Office explained in 2018 that higher educational attainment is correlated with higher labor force participation for workers aged 25–54. Prime-aged men tend to be out of the labor force due to disability, while a key reason for women is caring for family members.^[3]

Gender and the US labor force

Women

In the United States, there were three significant stages of women’s increased participation in the labor force. During the late 19th century through the 1920s, very few women worked. Working women were often young single women who typically withdrew from labor force at marriage unless their family needed two incomes. These women worked primarily in the textile manufacturing industry or as domestic workers. This profession empowered women and allowed them to earn a living wage. At times, they were a financial help to their families.

Between 1930 and 1950, female labor force participation increased primarily due to the increased demand for office workers, women participating in the high school movement, and electrification which reduced the time spent on household chores. In the 1950s to the 1970s, most women were secondary earners working mainly as secretaries, teachers, nurses, and librarians (pink-collar jobs).

Claudia Goldin and others, specifically point out that by the mid-1970s there was a period of revolution of women in the labor force brought on by different factors. Women more accurately planned for their future in the work force, choosing more applicable majors in college that prepared them to enter and compete in the labor market. In the United States, the labor force participation rate rose from approximately 59% in 1948 to 66% in 2005,^[4] with participation among women rising from 32% to 59%^[5] and participation among men declining from 87% to 73%.^[6]^[7]

A common theory in modern economics claims that the rise of women participating in the US labor force in the late 1960s was due to the introduction of a new contraceptive technology, birth control pills, and the adjustment of age of majority laws. The use of birth control gave women the flexibility of opting to invest and advance their career while maintaining a relationship. By having control over the timing of their fertility, they were not running a risk of thwarting their career choices. However, only 40% of the population actually used the birth control pill. This implies that other factors may have contributed to women choosing to invest in advancing their careers.

Another factor that may have contributed to the trend was the Equal Pay Act of 1963, which aimed at abolishing wage disparity based on sex. Such legislation diminished sexual discrimination and encouraged more women to enter the labor market by receiving fair remuneration to help raise children.

Historical Trends

According to the US Census in 1861, one third of women were in the labor force and of these one fourth were married women.^[8]

According to Ellen DuBoise and Lynn Dumenil, they estimate that the number of women in the labor force from 1800 - 1900 are:^[9]

According to the US Department of Labor, as of 2017 women make up 47% of the total labor force with 70% of them mothers with children under 18 years of age.^[10]

Men

Men's labor force participation has been falling consistently since at least the 1960s.^[11] This applies to both the overall and prime working age (25-54), as discussed in the analysis section below.

Analyzing the LFPR

Overall rate

From 1962 to 1999, women entering the U.S. workforce represented a nearly 8 percentage point increase in the overall LFPR.^[13] The U.S. overall LFPR (age 16+) has been falling since its all-time high point of 67.3% reached in January–April 2000, reaching 62.7% by January 2018.^[14] This decline since 2000 is primarily driven by the retirement of the Baby Boom generation. Since the overall labor force is defined as those age 16+, an aging society with more persons past the typical prime working age (25-54) exerts a steady downward influence on the LFPR. The decline was forecast by economists and demographers going back into the 1990s, if not earlier. For example, during 1999 the BLS forecast that the overall LFPR would be 66.9% in 2015 and 63.2% in 2025.^[15] A 2006 forecast by Federal Reserve economists (i.e., before the Great Recession that began in December 2007) estimated the LFPR would be below 64% by 2016, close to the 62.7% average that year.^[16]

The labor force participation rate decreases when the percentage increase in the defined population (denominator) is greater than the percentage increase in the labor force (i.e., the sum of employed and unemployed, the numerator). With respect to the unemployment rate, if the percentage increase in the number of unemployed (numerator) is greater than the percentage increase in the number in the labor force (denominator), the unemployment rate will rise.^[17]

Prime working age rate

Economists also analyze the LFPR for those prime-aged workers, aged 25–54. Mathematically, this ratio is computed with a numerator (labor force age 25-54) and denominator (civilian population age 25-54). This can help remove the impact of aging demographics, to better understand trends among working-aged persons. The prime-aged LFPR peaked at 84.5% at three times between October 1997 and April 2000. Prior to the Great Recession, the rate was 83.3% in November 2007, then fell to a trough of 80.5% in July 2015, before steadily climbing back to 81.7% in January 2018.^[18] It is one of the few key labor market variables that had yet to recover its pre-crisis level as of January 2018 and is an indicator of slack in the labor market.^[19]

The Congressional Budget Office explained in 2018 higher educational attainment is correlated with higher labor force participation. Prime-aged men tend to be out of the labor force due to disability, while a key reason for women is caring for family members. To the extent an aging population requires the assistance of prime-aged family members at home, this also presents a downward pressure on this cohort's participation.^[3]

Foreign-born (Immigrants)

There were 27.8 million foreign-born workers in the labor force as of January 2018.^[22] This group had an overall LFPR of 65.1% in January 2018.^[23]

International comparison

For 2017, the Central Intelligence Agency ranked the U.S. as having the fourth largest labor force in the world at about 160 million, behind China (807 million), India (522 million), and the European Union (235 million).^[24]

See also

References

1. ^¹{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV|title=Civilian Labor Force|website=FRED|accessdate=February 18, 2018}}
2. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm#c|title=BLS Glossary|publisher=|accessdate=15 October 2014}}
3. ^¹[https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53452 CBO-Factors Affecting the Labor Force Participation of People Ages 25 to 54-February 7, 2018]
4. ^{{cite web|url=http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS11300000&years_option=specific_years&include_graphs=true&to_month=1&from_month=2|title=Bureau of Labor Statistics Data|publisher=|accessdate=15 October 2014}}
5. ^{{cite web|url=http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS11300002&years_option=specific_years&include_graphs=true&to_year=2006&from_month=3|title=Bureau of Labor Statistics Data|publisher=|accessdate=15 October 2014}}
6. ^Breaking down the male participation rate by age bracket shows a marked decline in participation among men 55 and over from approximately 71% in 1948 to 44% in 2005 . Among younger age groups a decline is noticeable, but not nearly as drastic.
7. ^{{cite web|url=http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS11300001&years_option=specific_years&include_graphs=true&to_month|title=8=2006&from_month=9|publisher=|accessdate=15 October 2014}}
8. ^{{cite book |last1=Yalom |first1=Marilyn |title=A History of the Wife |date=2002 |publisher=Perennial |location=New York |isbn=0060931566 |page=188}}
9. ^{{cite book |last1=DuBois |first1=Ellen Carol |last2=Dumenil |first2=Lynn |title=Through Women's Eyes : An American History with Documents |date=2009 |publisher=Bedford/St. Martin's |location=Boston |isbn=0312468873 |page=338 |edition= 2nd}}
10. ^{{cite web |title=12 Stats about Working Women |url=https://blog.dol.gov/2017/03/01/12-stats-about-working-women |website=US Department of Labor |date=March 1, 2017}}
11. ^{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300001|title=Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate - Men|website=FRED|accessdate=February 18, 2018}}
12. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20160620_cea_primeage_male_lfp.pdf|title=White House Council of Economic Advisors-The Long-Term Decline in Prime-Age Male Labor Force Participation-June 2016-Page 13|website=Whitehouse.gov|accessdate=4 October 2017}}
13. ^[https://voxeu.org/article/decline-labour-force-participation-us CEPR-Multiple Authors-Understanding the decline in the labour force participation rate in the United States-August 2014]
14. ^{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART|title=Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate|website=FRED|accessdate=February 18, 2018}}
15. ^[https://www.bls.gov/mlr/1999/12/art1full.pdf BLS-Howard Fullerton-Labor force participation: 75 years of change, 1950–98 and 1998–2025-December 1999]
16. ^[https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2006/03/2006a_bpea_aaronson.pdf Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System-The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply-See Figure 3-2006]
17. ^Peter Barth and Dennis Heffley "Taking Apart Taking Part: Local Labor Force Participation Rates" University of Connecticut, 2004.
18. ^{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060|title=Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate Age 25-54|website=FRED|accessdate=February 18, 2018}}
19. ^[https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-yellens-labor-market-dashboard/ Bloomberg-Jamrisko et. al-Yellen's Labor Market Dashboard-February 2, 2018]
20. ^{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRAC25MAUSM156S|title=Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate - Men Aged 25-54|website=FRED|accessdate=February 18, 2018}}
21. ^{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRAC25FEUSM156S|title=Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate - Women Aged 25-54|website=FRED|accessdate=February 18, 2018}}
22. ^{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRAC25FEUSM156S|title=Civilian Labor Force: Foreign Born|website=FRED|accessdate=February 18, 2018}}
23. ^{{Cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01373395|title=Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate Foreign Born|website=FRED|accessdate=February 18, 2018}}
24. ^[https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2095rank.html#us CIA World Factbook-Country Comparison on Labor Force-Retrieved February 20, 2018]