释义 |
- References
{{See also|Pre-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2010}}{{See also|Results of the Australian federal election, 2007 (House of Representatives)}}The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2007 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 10 National, and 2 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis, as elected in 2007.[1] The two candidate result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2] GOVERNMENT SEATS | Australian Labor Party | Marginal | Robertson (NSW) | Belinda Neal | ALP | 50.11 | Flynn (Qld) | Chris Trevor | ALP | 50.16 | Solomon (NT) | Damian Hale | ALP | 50.19 | Corangamite (Vic) | Darren Cheeseman | ALP | 50.85 | Bass (Tas) | Jodie Campbell | ALP | 51.00 | Hasluck (WA) | Sharryn Jackson | ALP | 51.26 | Bennelong (NSW) | Maxine McKew | ALP | 51.40 | Deakin (Vic) | Mike Symon | ALP | 51.41 | Braddon (Tas) | Sid Sidebottom | ALP | 51.44 | Petrie (Qld) | Yvette D'Ath | ALP | 52.05 | Page (NSW) | Janelle Saffin | ALP | 52.36 | Forde (Qld) | Brett Raguse | ALP | 52.91 | Dawson (Qld) | James Bidgood | ALP | 53.21 | Eden-Monaro (NSW) | Mike Kelly | ALP | 53.40 | Longman (Qld) | Jon Sullivan | ALP | 53.57 | Dobell (NSW) | Craig Thomson | ALP | 53.90 | Leichhardt (Qld) | Jim Turnour | ALP | 54.03 | Kingston (SA) | Amanda Rishworth | ALP | 54.42 | Blair (Qld) | Shayne Neumann | ALP | 54.48 | Franklin (Tas) | Julie Collins | ALP | 54.48 | Bonner (Qld) | Kerry Rea | ALP | 54.53 | Melbourne (Vic) | Lindsay Tanner | ALP | 54.71 v GRN | Moreton (Qld) | Graham Perrett | ALP | 54.75 | Hindmarsh (SA) | Steve Georganas | ALP | 55.05 | Brand (WA) | Gary Gray | ALP | 55.62 | Fairly safe | Bendigo (Vic) | Steve Gibbons | ALP | 56.13 | Wakefield (SA) | Nick Champion | ALP | 56.59 | Brisbane (Qld) | Arch Bevis | ALP | 56.76 | Lindsay (NSW) | David Bradbury | ALP | 56.78 | Parramatta (NSW) | Julie Owens | ALP | 56.88 | Macquarie (NSW) | Bob Debus | ALP | 57.04 | Melbourne Ports (Vic) | Michael Danby | ALP | 57.15 | Lowe (NSW) | John Murphy | ALP | 57.37 | Chisholm (Vic) | Anna Burke | ALP | 57.38 | Isaacs (Vic) | Mark Dreyfus | ALP | 57.69 | Makin (SA) | Tony Zappia | ALP | 57.70 | Ballarat (Vic) | Catherine King | ALP | 58.15 | Bruce (Vic) | Alan Griffin | ALP | 58.32 | Adelaide (SA) | Kate Ellis | ALP | 58.53 | Lilley (Qld) | Wayne Swan | ALP | 58.59 | Lyons (Tas) | Dick Adams | ALP | 58.78 | Perth (WA) | Stephen Smith | ALP | 58.85 | Richmond (NSW) | Justine Elliot | ALP | 58.87 | Corio (Vic) | Richard Marles | ALP | 58.93 | Jagajaga (Vic) | Jenny Macklin | ALP | 58.98 | Fremantle (WA) | Melissa Parke | ALP | 59.14 | Safe | Banks (NSW) | Daryl Melham | ALP | 61.08 | Lingiari (NT) | Warren Snowdon | ALP | 61.16 | Holt (Vic) | Anthony Byrne | ALP | 61.63 | Rankin (Qld) | Craig Emerson | ALP | 61.74 | Canberra (ACT) | Annette Ellis | ALP | 61.82 | Barton (NSW) | Robert McClelland | ALP | 62.10 | Griffith (Qld) | Kevin Rudd | ALP | 62.32 | Capricornia (Qld) | Kirsten Livermore | ALP | 62.71 | Charlton (NSW) | Greg Combet | ALP | 62.87 | Hotham (Vic) | Simon Crean | ALP | 63.00 | Kingsford Smith (NSW) | Peter Garrett | ALP | 63.29 | Prospect (NSW) | Chris Bowen | ALP | 63.46 | Oxley (Qld) | Bernie Ripoll | ALP | 64.13 | Shortland (NSW) | Jill Hall | ALP | 64.74 | Fraser (ACT) | Bob McMullan | ALP | 65.07 | Werriwa (NSW) | Chris Hayes | ALP | 65.24 | Maribyrnong (Vic) | Bill Shorten | ALP | 65.32 | Lalor (Vic) | Julia Gillard | ALP | 65.53 | Denison (Tas) | Duncan Kerr | ALP | 65.63 | Newcastle (NSW) | Sharon Grierson | ALP | 65.91 | Hunter (NSW) | Joel Fitzgibbon | ALP | 65.92 | Reid (NSW) | Laurie Ferguson | ALP | 66.80 | Cunningham (NSW) | Sharon Bird | ALP | 68.13 | Fowler (NSW) | Julia Irwin | ALP | 68.25 | Blaxland (NSW) | Jason Clare | ALP | 68.37 | Calwell (Vic) | Maria Vamvakinou | ALP | 69.33 | Sydney (NSW) | Tanya Plibersek | ALP | 69.50 | Port Adelaide (SA) | Mark Butler | ALP | 69.75 | Very safe | Watson (NSW) | Tony Burke | ALP | 70.33 | Chifley (NSW) | Roger Price | ALP | 70.66 | Scullin (Vic) | Harry Jenkins | ALP | 70.85 | Gorton (Vic) | Brendan O'Connor | ALP | 71.22 | Gellibrand (Vic) | Nicola Roxon | ALP | 71.46 | Wills (Vic) | Kelvin Thomson | ALP | 72.41 | Throsby (NSW) | Jennie George | ALP | 73.46 | Grayndler (NSW) | Anthony Albanese | ALP | 74.93 | Batman (Vic) | Martin Ferguson | ALP | 75.95 |
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS | Liberal/National coalition | Marginal | McEwen (Vic) | Fran Bailey | LP | 50.01 | Bowman (Qld) | Andrew Laming | LP | 50.04 | Swan (WA) | Steve Irons | LP | 50.11 | Dickson (Qld) | Peter Dutton | LP | 50.13 | Herbert (Qld) | Peter Lindsay | LP | 50.21 | La Trobe (Vic) | Jason Wood | LP | 50.51 | Macarthur (NSW) | Pat Farmer | LP | 50.72 | Sturt (SA) | Christopher Pyne | LP | 50.94 | Cowper (NSW) | Luke Hartsuyker | NP | 51.23 | Stirling (WA) | Michael Keenan | LP | 51.29 | Paterson (NSW) | Bob Baldwin | LP | 51.51 | Hinkler (Qld) | Paul Neville | NP | 51.69 | Cowan (WA) | Luke Simpkins | LP | 51.71 | Hughes (NSW) | Danna Vale | LP | 52.16 | Kalgoorlie (WA) | Barry Haase | LP | 52.58 | Boothby (SA) | Andrew Southcott | LP | 52.93 | Fairfax (Qld) | Alex Somlyay | LP | 53.01 | Fisher (Qld) | Peter Slipper | LP | 53.10 | Ryan (Qld) | Michael Johnson | LP | 53.82 | Wentworth (NSW) | Malcolm Turnbull | LP | 53.85 | Dunkley (Vic) | Bruce Billson | LP | 54.04 | Gilmore (NSW) | Joanna Gash | LP | 54.07 | Hume (NSW) | Alby Schultz | LP | 54.16 | Grey (SA) | Rowan Ramsey | LP | 54.43 | Greenway (NSW) | Louise Markus | LP | 54.50 | McMillan (Vic) | Russell Broadbent | LP | 54.79 | Aston (Vic) | Chris Pearce | LP | 55.05 | North Sydney (NSW) | Joe Hockey | LP | 55.38 | Canning (WA) | Don Randall | LP | 55.58 | Forrest (WA) | Nola Marino | LP | 55.83 | Gippsland (Vic) | Peter McGauran | NP | 55.91 | Casey (Vic) | Tony Smith | LP | 55.93 | Fairly safe | Menzies (Vic) | Kevin Andrews | LP | 56.02 | Goldstein (Vic) | Andrew Robb | LP | 56.05 | Cook (NSW) | Scott Morrison | LP | 56.57 | Higgins (Vic) | Peter Costello | LP | 57.04 | Mayo (SA) | Alexander Downer | LP | 57.06 | Wannon (Vic) | David Hawker | LP | 57.47 | Groom (Qld) | Ian Macfarlane | LP | 58.22 | Flinders (Vic) | Greg Hunt | LP | 58.25 | Wide Bay (Qld) | Warren Truss | NP | 58.47 | Lyne (NSW) | Mark Vaile | NP | 58.58 | Tangney (WA) | Dennis Jensen | LP | 58.68 | McPherson (Qld) | Margaret May | LP | 58.83 | Berowra (NSW) | Philip Ruddock | LP | 58.94 | Pearce (WA) | Judi Moylan | LP | 59.07 | Moore (WA) | Mal Washer | LP | 59.17 | Indi (Vic) | Sophie Mirabella | LP | 59.19 | Barker (SA) | Patrick Secker | LP | 59.45 | Warringah (NSW) | Tony Abbott | LP | 59.50 | Kooyong (Vic) | Petro Georgiou | LP | 59.53 | Safe | Fadden (Qld) | Stuart Robert | LP | 60.20 | Farrer (NSW) | Sussan Ley | LP | 61.17 | Mitchell (NSW) | Alex Hawke | LP | 61.59 | Calare (NSW) | John Cobb | NP | 62.05 | Mackellar (NSW) | Bronwyn Bishop | LP | 62.42 | Parkes (NSW) | Mark Coulton | NP | 63.04 | Bradfield (NSW) | Brendan Nelson | LP | 63.45 | Curtin (WA) | Julie Bishop | LP | 63.57 | Moncrieff (Qld) | Steven Ciobo | LP | 64.01 | Maranoa (Qld) | Bruce Scott | NP | 64.44 | Riverina (NSW) | Kay Hull | NP | 66.23 | O'Connor (WA) | Wilson Tuckey | LP | 66.55 | Murray (Vic) | Sharman Stone | LP | 68.26 | Very safe | Mallee (Vic) | John Forrest | NP | 71.27 | Independents | Kennedy (Qld) | Bob Katter | IND | 66.29 v ALP | New England (NSW) | Tony Windsor | IND | 74.33 v NP | {{clear}}References1. ^Two Party Preferred by Division 2. ^Electoral matrix: 2004 federal election {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080220022106/http://www.aph.gov.au/LIBRARY/pubs/rn/2004-05/05rn25.htm |date=2008-02-20 }}
{{Australian federal election, 2007}} 2 : 2007 elections in Australia|Pendulums for Australian federal elections |