请输入您要查询的百科知识：

　

词条 Public Policy Polling
释义

  1. Elections

     2008  2010  2011  2012   2014    2016  

  2. Methodology

  3. References

  4. External links

{{Infobox company
| name = Public Policy Polling
| logo = Public Policy Polling logo.jpg
| logo_size = 200px
| type = Private
| foundation = {{start date and age|2001}}
Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S.
| founder = Dean Debnam
| location_city = 2912 Highwoods Boulevard, Suite 201
Raleigh, North Carolina
| location_country = U.S.
| key_people = Dean Debnam (President, CEO)
Tom Jensen (Director)
| area_served = United States
| industry = Opinion polling
| homepage = publicpolicypolling.com
}}Public Policy Polling (PPP) is a U.S. Democratic[1] polling firm based in Raleigh, North Carolina.[2][3][4] PPP was founded in 2001 by businessman Dean Debnam, the firm's current president and chief executive officer.[5]

In addition to political issues, the company has polled the public on topics such as the approval rating of God,[6] whether Republican voters believe President Obama would be eligible to enter heaven in the event of the Rapture,[7] whether hipsters should be subjected to a special tax for being annoying,[8] and whether Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer.[9][10]

Elections

2008

PPP first entered prominence through its performance in the 2008 Democratic primaries between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The company performed well, producing accurate predictions in states ranging from South Carolina to Wisconsin, many of which featured inaccurate results by other pollsters.[11]{{primary source inline|date=October 2016}}[12] After the November election, PPP was ranked by the Wall Street Journal as one of the two most accurate firms, among those who were most active in the presidential swing states.[2]

2010

PPP was the first pollster to find Scott Brown with a lead over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate special election; Brown ultimately won in a major comeback, and PPP's final poll in that race predicted Brown's winning margin exactly.[13]

2011

PPP was praised{{By whom|date=May 2015}} for its accuracy in polling primaries and special elections, which are notoriously hard to predict. The contests they accurately predicted include the West Virginia gubernatorial primaries, special elections in New York and California,[14][15] as well as all eight Wisconsin recall elections.

2012

A study by Fordham University found that, of 28 firms studied, PPP had the most accurate poll on the presidential national popular vote, both its independently conducted poll and the one it does in collaboration with the Daily Kos and the SEIU.[16][17]

PPP correctly called the winner of the presidential election in all 19 states it polled in the final week of the election, as well as the winners of all the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races it surveyed.[18][19][20][21][22]

2014

Political research firm YouGov found PPP’s gubernatorial polls to have the lowest average margin of error among national firms that polled in at least five gubernatorial races in the month preceding the election.[23]

2016

In the 2016 Presidential Election, PPP's final polls widely missed the mark in several key swing states, including New Hampshire,[24] North Carolina,[25] Pennsylvania,[26] and Wisconsin.[27] Their polls also significantly underestimated President Trump's lead in Ohio,[28] and incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton to win Florida.[29]

Methodology

The company's surveys use Interactive Voice Response (IVR), an automated questionnaire used by other polling firms such as SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports.[30] The journalist Nate Cohn has criticized the company's methodology as being "unscientific".[31]

In 2013 columnist Nate Cohn described PPP as a liberal pollster,[32] although according to statistician Nate Silver, PPP had a tendency to slightly lean Republican as of September 2016.[33] As of February 11th, 2017 Silver's website, FiveThirtyEight, gives PPP a B+ grade in its pollster ranking.[33]

References

1. ^{{cite web |url = http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2008/11/ppps-bias.html |title = PPP's 'Bias' |publisher = Public Policy Polling |date = November 5, 2008 |accessdate = October 5, 2016 |author = Jensen, Tom }}
2. ^1 {{cite web |url = http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/how-ppp-became-the-it-democratic-pollster |title = How PPP Became The 'It' Democratic Pollster |work = Talking Points Memo |date = August 22, 2011 |accessdate = October 5, 2016 |author = Sarlin, Benjy }}
3. ^{{cite web |url = http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/not-average-pollster-phones-trump-credible-says-n-c-man |title = Not Your Average Pollster: He Says Phones Are Out and Trump Is Credible |work = Roll Call |date = March 23, 2016 |accessdate = October 5, 2016 |author = Pathé, Simone }}
4. ^{{cite web |url = http://www.politico.com/story/2009/06/sen-launches-attack-on-polling-firm-024062 |title = Sen. launches attack -- on polling firm |work = Politico |date = June 23, 2009 |accessdate = October 5, 2016 |author = Kraushaar, Josh }}
5. ^"About Us", Public Policy Polling, 2012. Retrieved on 6 December 2012.
6. ^{{cite web |url = http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/God-approval-poll-creator/2011/07/24/id/404610 |title = Public Policy Poll: God Commands 52% Approval |publisher = Newsmax.com |date = July 24, 2011 |accessdate = October 21, 2011 }}
7. ^{{cite web |last = Rosenbaum |first = Ron |url = http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2011/07/19/only_19_percent_of_republicans_think_obama_would_be_raptured.html |title = Only 19 Percent of Republicans Think Obama Would Be Raptured |publisher = Slate |date = July 19, 2011 |accessdate = October 21, 2011 }}
8. ^{{cite web |url = http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/13/hipster-tax_n_3268094.html |title = Hipster Tax For Being 'So Annoying' Backed By 27 Percent Of Americans: Poll |publisher = The Huffington Post |date = 13 May 2013 |accessdate = 14 May 2013 }}
9. ^{{cite news |last1 = Stuart |first1 = Tessa |title = Is Ted Cruz the Zodiac Killer? Maybe, Say 38 Percent of Florida Voters |url = https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/is-ted-cruz-the-zodiac-killer-maybe-say-38-percent-of-florida-voters-20160226 |accessdate = 1 May 2016 |work = Rolling Stone |date = 26 February 2016 }}
10. ^{{cite web |title = Trump Leads Rubio in Florida- Even Head to Head |url = http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf |publisher = Public Policy Polling |accessdate = 1 May 2016 }}
11. ^{{cite web |url = http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/01/ppp-most-accurate-numbers-in-country.html |title = PPP: most accurate numbers in the country for South Carolina |publisher = Public Policy Polling |date = January 26, 2008 |accessdate = October 21, 2011 }}
12. ^http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/wi-dem-primary-all-x-all-021908.JPG
13. ^{{cite web |last = Taylor |first = Jessica |url = http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0110/Poll_Scott_Brown_leading_Coakley_4847.html |title = Poll: Scott Brown ahead of Martha Coakley by 1 point |publisher = Politico |date = January 9, 2010 |accessdate = October 21, 2011 }}
14. ^{{cite web |last = Catanese |first = David |url = http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0711/The_polling_is_right_Why_PPP_deserves_props.html |title = The polling is right: Why PPP deserves props |publisher = Politico |date = July 14, 2011 |accessdate = October 21, 2011 }}
15. ^{{cite web |last = Isenstadt |first = Alex |url = http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55703.html |title = NY-26: The winners and losers |publisher = Politico |date = |accessdate = October 21, 2011 }}
16. ^{{cite web |last = Leighton |first = Kyle |url = http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/fordham-study-public-policy-polling-deemed-most-accurate |title = Fordham Study: Public Policy Polling Deemed Most Accurate National Pollster In 2012 |publisher = Talking Points Memo |date = 7 November 2012 |accessdate = 7 November 2012 }}
17. ^{{cite news |last = Easley |first = Jonathan |title = Study finds PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012 |url = http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/266615-study-finds-ppp-kos-the-most-accurate-pollsters-in-2012 |accessdate = 25 April 2013 |newspaper = The Hill |date = 7 November 2012 }}
18. ^{{cite web |last = Mahtesian |first = Charles |url = http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/11/ppp-nailed-it-148911.html |title = PPP nailed it |publisher = Politico |date = 7 November 2012 |accessdate = 6 December 2012 }}
19. ^{{cite web |last = Bialik |first = Carl |url = https://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/11/07/how-did-pollsters-fare-on-election-night/ |title = How did pollsters fare on election night? |publisher = Wall Street Journal |date = 7 November 2012 |accessdate = 6 December 2012 }}
20. ^{{cite web |last = Lauter |first = David |url = http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-which-pollsters-did-best-election-20121108,0,5284255.story |title = Which pollsters did best: Non-traditional methods were standouts |publisher = Los Angeles Times |date = 8 November 2012 |accessdate = 6 December 2012 }}
21. ^{{cite web |last = Enten |first = Harry |url = https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/nov/07/how-pollsters-won-2012-election-mostly |title = How the pollsters won the 2012 US election, mostly |publisher = The Guardian |date = 7 November 2012 |accessdate = 6 December 2012 }}
22. ^{{cite web |last = LoGiurato |first = Brett |url = http://www.businessinsider.com/ppp-election-prediction-nate-silver-obama-romney-2012-11 |title = How a three-man polling team completely nailed their election prediction |publisher = Business Insider |date = 12 November 2012 |accessdate = 6 December 2012 }}
23. ^{{Cite web|title = YouGov {{!}} YouGov poll performance in the 2014 Governor elections|url = https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/11/06/yougov-poll-performance-2014-governor-elections/|website = YouGov: What the world thinks|accessdate = 2015-07-16}}
24. ^https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143857/NHResults112-Final.pdf
25. ^https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143904/NCResults112-Final.pdf
26. ^https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143857/PAResults11316-Final.pdf
27. ^https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
28. ^{{cite tweet |user = ppppolls |author = PublicPolicyPolling |number = 795762928419033090 |date = 7 November 2016 |title = Post Labor Day we haven't done a single Ohio poll that had either candidate up by more than 1 }}
29. ^{{cite tweet |user = ppppolls |author = PublicPolicyPolling |number = 795447716453187585 |date = 7 November 2016 |title = Think Hillary will win both but more confident about Florida }}
30. ^{{cite news |url = https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122592455567202805 |title = Polls Foresaw Future, Which Looks Tough for Polling |last = Bialik |first = Carl |authorlink = Carl Bialik |date = November 6, 2008 |work = The Wall Street Journal |pages = A16 |accessdate = March 12, 2012 }}
31. ^{{Cite web |title = There's Something Wrong With America's Premier Liberal Pollster |url = https://newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed |website = New Republic |date = 2013-09-12 |access-date = 2016-02-24 |first = Nate |last = Cohn }}
32. ^https://newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed
33. ^1 {{Cite web |url = http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ |title = FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings |last = Silver |first = Nate |date = 2016-06-02 |language = en-US |access-date = 2016-07-19 }}

External links

  • {{official|http://www.publicpolicypolling.com}}

5 : Companies based in Raleigh, North Carolina|Companies established in 2001|Democratic Party (United States) organizations|Privately held companies based in North Carolina|Public opinion research companies in the United States
随便看

　

开放百科全书收录14589846条英语、德语、日语等多语种百科知识，基本涵盖了大多数领域的百科知识，是一部内容自由、开放的电子版国际百科全书。

　

Copyright © 2023 OENC.NET All Rights Reserved
京ICP备2021023879号 更新时间：2024/9/28 9:23:29