| 词条 | Tobias Preis |
| 释义 |
|name = Tobias Preis |image = Tobias_Preis.jpg |caption = |birth_date = 1981 |birth_place = |death_date = |death_place = |residence = Germany, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States |nationality = German |ethnicity = |field = {{Plainlist|
}} |work_institutions = {{Plainlist|
}} |alma_mater = Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz |doctoral_advisor = |doctoral_students = |known_for = Identification of links between online behavior and real world economic events |author_abbrev_bot = |author_abbrev_zoo = |influences = |influenced = |prizes = |religion = |footnotes = |signature = }} Tobias Preis is Professor of Behavioral Science and Finance at Warwick Business School and a fellow of the Alan Turing Institute. He is a computational social scientist focussing on measuring and predicting human behavior with online data. At Warwick Business School he directs the Data Science Lab together with his colleague Suzy Moat. Preis holds visiting positions at Boston University and University College London. In 2011, he worked as a senior research fellow with H. Eugene Stanley at Boston University and with Dirk Helbing at ETH Zurich. In 2009, he was named a member of the Gutenberg Academy. In 2007, he founded Artemis Capital Asset Management GmbH, a proprietary trading firm which is based in Germany. He was awarded a Ph.D. in physics from the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz in Germany. Preis has quantified and modelled financial market fluctuations.[1][2] In addition, he has made contributions to general-purpose computing on graphics processing units (GPGPU) in statistical physics[3][4] and computational finance.[5] In 2010, Preis headed a research team which provided evidence that search engine query data and stock market fluctuations are correlated.[6][7][8][9][10] The team discovered a link between the number of Internet searches for company names and transaction volumes of the corresponding stocks on a weekly time scale.[11] In a TEDx talk,[12] Preis highlights the opportunities offered by studies of citizens' online behaviour to gain insights into socio and economic decision making. In 2012, Preis used Google Trends data to demonstrate together with his colleagues Suzy Moat, H. Eugene Stanley and Steven R. Bishop that Internet users from countries with a higher per capita gross domestic product (GDP) are more likely to search for information about the future than information about the past. The findings, published in the journal Scientific Reports, suggest there may be a link between online behaviour and real-world economic indicators.[13][14][15][16] Preis and colleagues examined Google search queries made by Internet users in 45 different countries in 2010 and calculated the ratio of the volume of searches for the coming year (2011) to the volume of searches for the previous year (2009), which they call the Future Orientation Index. A comparison of the Future Orientation Index to the per capita GDP of each country revealed a strong tendency for countries in which Google users enquire more about the future to exhibit a higher GDP. Preis and colleagues conclude from this study that a relationship potentially exists between the economic success of a country and the information-seeking behaviour of its citizens online.[13][17][18][19][20][21] In 2013, Preis and his colleagues Suzy Moat and H. Eugene Stanley introduced a method to identify online precursors for stock market moves, using trading strategies based on search volume data provided by Google Trends.[22] Their analysis of Google search volume for 98 terms of varying financial relevance, published in Scientific Reports,[23] suggests that increases in search volume for financially relevant search terms tend to precede large losses in financial markets.[24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31] Similarly, in a study also published in Scientific Reports in 2013,[32] Suzy Moat, Preis and colleagues demonstrated a link between changes in the number of views of Wikipedia articles relating to financial topics and subsequent large stock market moves.[33] In 2015, Preis and his colleague Suzy Moat designed and delivered a massive open online course (MOOC) on big data. The course focuses on measuring and predicting human behavior.[34] Preis is an academic editor of PLoS ONE.[35] See also
Footnotes1. ^{{cite web | url = http://www.zeit.de/2011/33/CH-Oekonophysik/seite-1 | title = Es braucht ein neues Finanzsystem | author = Peer Teuwsen | work = Die Zeit | date = August 15, 2011 | accessdate = May 26, 2012}} 2. ^{{cite web | url = http://www.nzz.ch/aktuell/hintergrund/wissenschaft/wie_finanzblasen_platzen_1.10616793.html | title = Wie Finanzblasen platzen | author = Leonid Leiva | work = Neue Zürcher Zeitung | date = May 18, 2011 | accessdate = May 26, 2012}} 3. ^{{cite journal | last = Block | first = Benjamin | last2 = Virnau | first2 = Peter | last3 = Preis | first3 = Tobias | title = Multi-GPU accelerated multi-spin Monte Carlo simulations of the 2D Ising model | journal = Computer Physics Communications | volume = 181 | pages = 1549–1556 | year = 2010 | doi = 10.1016/j.cpc.2010.05.005 | arxiv = 1007.3726 | bibcode = 2010CoPhC.181.1549B }} 4. ^{{cite journal | last = Preis | first = Tobias | last2 = Virnau | first2 = Peter | last3 = Paul | first3 = Wolfgang | last4 = Schneider | first4 = Johannes J. | title = GPU accelerated Monte Carlo simulation of the 2D and 3D Ising model | journal = Journal of Computational Physics | volume = 228 | pages = 4468–4477 | year = 2009 | doi = 10.1016/j.jcp.2009.03.018 | bibcode = 2009JCoPh.228.4468P }} 5. ^{{cite journal | last = Preis | first = Tobias | last2 = Virnau | first2 = Peter | last3 = Paul | first3 = Wolfgang | last4 = Schneider | first4 = Johannes J. | title = Accelerated fluctuation analysis by graphic cards and complex pattern formation in financial markets | journal = New Journal of Physics | volume = 11 | pages = 093024 | year = 2009 | doi = 10.1088/1367-2630/11/9/093024 | bibcode = 2009NJPh...11i3024P }} 6. ^{{cite journal | last = Preis | first = Tobias | last2 = Reith | first2 = Daniel | last3 = Stanley | first3 = H. Eugene | title = Complex dynamics of our economic life on different scales: insights from search engine query data | journal = Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A | volume = 368 | pages = 5707–5719 | year = 2010 | doi = 10.1098/rsta.2010.0284 | pmid=21078644| bibcode = 2010RSPTA.368.5707P }} 7. ^{{cite web | url = http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/15/google-searches-predict-stock-market-moves/ | title = Google searches predict stock market moves | author = Kevin Voigt | work = CNN | date = November 15, 2010 | accessdate = February 13, 2011}} 8. ^{{cite web | url = http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/11/can-google-predict-the-stock.html | title = Can Google Predict the Stock Market? | author = John Bohannon | work = Science | date = November 14, 2010 | accessdate = February 13, 2011}} 9. ^{{cite web | url = http://newsfeed.time.com/2010/11/15/google-searches-and-financial-market-fluctuations-linked-and-worrying/ | title = Study: Are Google Searches Affecting the Stock Market? | author = Catherine Mayer | work = Time Magazine | date = November 15, 2010 | accessdate = February 13, 2011}} 10. ^{{cite web | url = http://www.faz.net/aktuell/rhein-main/aktienhandel-oekonophysiker-untersucht-google-11069432.html | title = Ökonophysiker untersucht Google | author = Eva-Maria Magel | work = Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung | date = November 15, 2010 | accessdate = May 26, 2012}} 11. ^{{cite web | url = http://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/boerse/handelsstrategie-wer-sucht-hat-angst/7049274.html | title = Handelsstrategie: Wer sucht, hat Angst | author = Yvonne Esterházy | work = Wirtschaftswoche | date = August 29, 2012 | accessdate = August 29, 2012}} 12. ^{{cite web | url = http://tedxtalks.ted.com/video/TEDxZurich-Tobias-Preis-Bubble | title = TEDxZurich | date = October 4, 2011 | accessdate = May 26, 2012}} 13. ^1 {{cite journal | author=Tobias Preis, Helen Susannah Moat, H. Eugene Stanley and Steven R. Bishop | title=Quantifying the Advantage of Looking Forward | journal=Scientific Reports | volume= 2 | pages=350 | year=2012 | doi=10.1038/srep00350 | pmid=22482034 | pmc=3320057| bibcode=2012NatSR...2E.350P }} 14. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21678-online-searches-for-future-linked-to-economic-success.html | title=Online searches for future linked to economic success | author=Paul Marks | work=New Scientist | date=April 5, 2012 | accessdate=May 26, 2012}} 15. ^{{cite web | url=https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/news/2012/04/google-trends-reveals-clues-about-the-mentality-of-richer-nations.ars | title=Google Trends reveals clues about the mentality of richer nations | author=Casey Johnston | work=Ars Technica | date=April 6, 2012 | accessdate=May 26, 2012}} 16. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.theverge.com/2012/4/6/2929917/nature-future-orientation-index-gdp-versus-google-trends | title=Wealthier countries are more interested in the future | author=Andrew Webster | work=The Verge | date=April 6, 2012 | accessdate=May 26, 2012}} 17. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/feb/08/countries-most-forward-thinking-visualised | title=Which countries are the most forward thinking? See it visualised | author=Ami Sedghi | work=The Guardian | date=February 8, 2013 | accessdate=February 24, 2013}} 18. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2274912/Germany-knocks-Britain-spot-forward-looking-country-Google-searches-Pakistan-league.html | title=Germany knocks Britain off top spot to become world's most forward-thinking country in Google searches | author=Kate Bevan | work=Daily Mail | date=February 7, 2013 | accessdate=February 24, 2013}} 19. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-31/what-google-searches-about-the-future-tell-us-about-the-present | title=What Google Searches About the Future Tell Us About the Present | author=Bernhard Warner | work=Bloomberg Businessweek | date=January 31, 2013 | accessdate=February 24, 2013}} 20. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/02/08/map-the-worlds-most-and-least-forward-looking-countries-based-on-google-searches/ | title=Map: The world’s most and least ‘forward-looking’ countries, based on Google searches | author=Caitlin Dewey | work=The Washington Post | date=February 8, 2013 | accessdate=February 24, 2013}} 21. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.lastampa.it/2013/02/01/esteri/germania-felix-piu-ottimisti-di-noi-SwBruyug4fyLNnYNaTUNaP/pagina.html | title=Germania Felix: più ottimisti di noi | author=Alessandro Alviani | work=La Stampa | date=February 1, 2013 | accessdate=February 24, 2013}} 22. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.nature.com/news/counting-google-searches-predicts-market-movements-1.12879 | title=Counting Google searches predicts market movements | author=Philip Ball | work=Nature | date=April 26, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 23. ^{{cite journal | author=Tobias Preis, Helen Susannah Moat and H. Eugene Stanley | title=Quantifying Trading Behavior in Financial Markets Using Google Trends | journal=Scientific Reports | volume= 3 | pages=1684 | year=2013 | doi=10.1038/srep01684 | pmc=3635219 | pmid=23619126| bibcode=2013NatSR...3E1684P }} 24. ^{{cite web | url=http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/google-search-terms-can-predict-stock-market-study-finds/ | title= Google Search Terms Can Predict Stock Market, Study Finds | author=Nick Bilton | work=New York Times | date=April 26, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 25. ^{{cite web | url=http://business.time.com/2013/04/26/trouble-with-your-investment-portfolio-google-it/ | title=Trouble With Your Investment Portfolio? Google It! | author=Christopher Matthews | work=TIME Magazine | date=April 26, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 26. ^{{cite web | url= http://www.nature.com/news/counting-google-searches-predicts-market-movements-1.12879 | title=Counting Google searches predicts market movements | author=Philip Ball |work=Nature | date=April 26, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 27. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-25/big-data-researchers-turn-to-google-to-beat-the-markets | title='Big Data' Researchers Turn to Google to Beat the Markets | author=Bernhard Warner | work=Bloomberg Businessweek | date=April 25, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 28. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-need-a-valuable-handle-on-investor-sentiment-google-it-8590991.html | title=Hamish McRae: Need a valuable handle on investor sentiment? Google it | author=Hamish McRae | work=The Independent | date=April 28, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 29. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e5d959b8-acf2-11e2-b27f-00144feabdc0.html | title= Google search proves to be new word in stock market prediction | author=Richard Waters | work=Financial Times | date=April 25, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 30. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidleinweber/2013/04/26/big-data-gets-bigger-now-google-trends-can-predict-the-market/ | title=Big Data Gets Bigger: Now Google Trends Can Predict The Market | author=David Leinweber | work=Forbes | date=April 26, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 31. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22293693 | title=Google searches predict market moves | author=Jason Palmer | work=BBC | date=April 25, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 32. ^{{cite journal | author=Helen Susannah Moat, Chester Curme, Adam Avakian, Dror Y. Kenett, H. Eugene Stanley and Tobias Preis | title=Quantifying Wikipedia Usage Patterns Before Stock Market Moves | journal=Scientific Reports | volume= 3 | pages=1801 | year=2013 | doi=10.1038/srep01801 | pmc=3647164| bibcode=2013NatSR...3E1801M }} 33. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/97170c1a-b96f-11e2-9a9f-00144feabdc0.html | title=Wikipedia’s crystal ball | work=Financial Times | date=May 10, 2013 | accessdate=August 9, 2013}} 34. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/big-data | title=Big Data: Measuring and Predicting Human Behaviour | author=Moat and Preis | work=FutureLearn | date=2015 | accessdate=April 13, 2015}} 35. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.plosone.org/static/edboard | title=PLOS ONE Editorial Board | accessdate=February 24, 2013}} External links{{Commons category}}
7 : 1981 births|Living people|Complex systems scientists|Scientific computing researchers|German scientists|Academics of the University of Warwick|Wikipedia researchers |
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