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词条 2013 Lower Saxony state election
释义

  1. Background

  2. Polls

  3. Results

  4. Sources

{{Expand German|Landtagswahl in Niedersachsen 2013|date=May 2012}}{{Infobox election
| election_name = Lower Saxony state election, 2013
| country = Lower Saxony
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = Lower Saxony state election, 2008
| previous_year = 2008
| next_election = Lower Saxony state election, 2017
| next_year = 2017
| seats_for_election = All 137 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony
| majority_seats = 69
| election_date = 20 January 2013[1]
| turnout =
| image1 =
| leader1 = David McAllister
| party1 = Christian Democratic Union (Germany)
| last_election1 = 68 seats, 42.5%
| seats_before1 = 68
| seats1 = 54
| seat_change1 = {{decrease}}14
| popular_vote1 = 1,287,730
| percentage1 = 36.0%
| swing1 = {{decrease}}6.5%
| image2 =
| leader2 = Stephan Weil
| party2 = Social Democratic Party of Germany
| last_election2 = 48 seats, 30.3%
| seats_before2 = 48
| seats2 = 49
| seat_change2 = {{increase}}1
| popular_vote2 = 1,165,538
| percentage2 = 32.6%
| swing2 = {{increase}}2.3%
| image3 =

| leader3 = Anja Piel and Stefan Wenzel
| party3 = Alliance '90/The Greens
| last_election3 = 12 seats, 8.0%
| seats_before3 = 12
| seats3 = 20
| seat_change3 = {{increase}}8
| popular_vote3 = 489,572
| percentage3 = 13.7%
| swing3 = {{increase}}5.7%
| image4 =
| leader4 = Stefan Birkner
| party4 = Free Democratic Party (Germany)
| last_election4 = 13 seats, 8.2%
| seats_before4 = 13
| seats4 = 14
| seat_change4 = {{increase}}1
| popular_vote4 = 354,971
| percentage4 = 9.9%
| swing4 = {{increase}}1.7%
| image5 =
| leader5 = Manfred Sohn
| party5 = The Left (Germany)
| last_election5 = 11 seats, 7.1%
| seats_before5 = 11
| seats5 = 0
| seat_change5 = {{decrease}}11
| popular_vote5 = 112,215
| percentage5 = 3.1%
| swing5 = {{decrease}}4.0%
| map_image = Landtagswahl Niedersachsen 2013 Erststimmenmehrheit.svg
| map_size =
| map_alt =
| map_caption = First votes winners in the electoral districts{{legend|#5A5A5A|CDU}} {{legend|#DE2911|SPD}}
| title = Ministerpräsident
| posttitle = Ministerpräsident-designate
| before_election = David McAllister
| before_party = Christian Democratic Union (Germany)
| after_election = Stephan Weil
| after_party = Social Democratic Party of Germany
}}

A state election was held in Lower Saxony on 20 January 2013 to elect the 137 members of the Landtag.

The CDU-led government of Minister-President David McAllister sought to retain power in the assembly, but fell one seat short of a majority. They were replaced by an SPD-Green coalition, which has a one-seat majority.[2]

Background

In the regional elections on 27 January 2008, the CDU-FDP coalition was reelected under Prime Minister Christian Wulff. The SPD under Wolfgang Jüttner lost more than three percentage points to make it the SPD's worst ever result in Lower Saxony. The FDP retained their status as the third strongest party over the Greens although only by 0.2% of the vote. The Left achieved 7.1 percent of the vote, crossing the minimum electoral threshold and earning representation for the first time in the state legislature.

Before the election the SPD & Greens announced their plan to govern together and campaign together. The CDU acted independently of the FDP during the campaign but sought to continue the CDU-FDP coalition after the election. If a CDU-FDP coalition was unable to be formed, the CDU said the SPD would be their second choice; however the SPD itself rejected the idea of a grand coalition with the CDU. The Left and The Pirates remained outside of possible coalition talks and failed to win seats in the election.[2]

Polls

PollsterDateCDUSPDFDPGreensThe LeftPiratesOthers
Exit Poll 20.01.2013 36.8% 32.9% 9.6% 13.5% <5 % <5 % <5 %
GMS 17.01.2013 41% 33% 5% 13% 3% 3% 2%
INFO GmbH 12.01.2013 38% 31.5% 4.5% 14.5% 6% 3% 2.5%
Infratest dimap 10.01.2013 40% 33% 5% 13% 3% 3% 3%
GMS 10.01.2013 41% 33% 5% 13% 3% 3% 2%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 10.01.2013 39% 33% 5% 13% 3% 3% 4%
Infratest dimap 03.01.2013 40% 34% 4% 13% 3% 3% 3%
INFO GmbH 22.12.2012 38.5% 33% 3.5% 12.5% 4% 4.5%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 06.12.2012 39% 32% 4% 13% 4% 4% 4%
Infratest dimap 06.12.2012 40% 33% 3% 15% 3% 3% 3%
GMS 04.12.2012 41% 32% 4% 13% 3% 4% 3%
Infratest dimap 08.11.2012 41% 34% 3% 13% 3% 3% 3%
Infratest dimap 20.09.2012 37% 33% 3% 15% 4% 4% 4%
GMS 20.09.2012 38% 33% 5% 13% 5% 3% 3%
Forsa[3] 24.07.2012 38% 33% 4% 11% 4% 7% 3%
YouGov 19.07.2012 31% 35% 4% 14% 5% 7% 4%
Infratest dimap[4] 16.05.2012 32% 36% 4% 13% 3% 8% 4%
GMS[5] 16.05.2012 37% 33% 3% 13% 3% 9% 2%
Infratest dimap[6] 25.01.2012 36% 32% 3% 17% 5% 4% 3%
GMS[7] 20.01.2012 37% 33% 3% 18% 3% 3% 3%

Results

{{electiontable|Lower Saxony state election, 2013|Summary of the 20 January 2013 Landtag of Lower Saxony elections results}}
< 2008    Next >
|-
PartyPopular voteSeats
|-
Votes%+/–Seats+/–
|-{{Party name with colour|Christian Democratic Union (Germany)|shortname=Christian Democratic Union|colour=#000000}}
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands - CDU|| 1,287,730 || 36.0% || -6.5% || 54 || -14
|-{{Party name with colour|Social Democratic Party of Germany|shortname=Social Democratic Party of Germany}}
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands - SPD|| 1,165,538 || 32.6% || +2.3% || 49 || +1
|-{{Party name with colour|Alliance '90/The Greens|shortname=Alliance '90/The Greens}}
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen|| 489,572 || 13.7% || +5.7 %|| 20 || +8
|-{{Party name with colour|Free Democratic Party (Germany)|shortname=Free Democratic Party}}
Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP|| 354,971 || 9.9% || +1.7% || 14 || +1
|-{{Party name with colour|The Left (Germany)|colour=#AA0000}}
Die Linke|| 112,215 || 3.1% || -4.0% || 0 || -11
|-
| bgcolor="white"| || align=left |Other parties|| 165,235 || 4.7% || +0.8% || {{nochange}} || {{nochange}}
|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
| align="right" colspan="2" | Valid votes
| 3,575,261
| 98.7%
| {{increase}}0.2%
| colspan=2 rowspan=2 color=#BAB9B9|
|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
| align="right" colspan="2" | Invalid votes
| 45,733
| 1.3%
| {{decrease}}0.2%
|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
| align="right" colspan="2" | Totals and voter turnout
| 3,620,994
| 59.4%
| {{increase}}2.3%
| 137
| {{decrease}}15
|- style="background-color:#BAB9B9"
| colspan="2" | Electorate
| 6,100,218
| 100.00
|
| colspan=2|
|-
| colspan=11 align=left | Source: Landeswahlleiterin Niedersachsen
|}

Most polls taken in early 2012 showed a SPD-Green majority. However, in the run up to the election, polls tightened with the CDU-FDP coalition virtually neck and neck with the SPD-Green coalition. Polling suggested that the FDP's vote could be very close to 5%, which led to some officials in the CDU to suggest tactically voting FDP to ensure it met the minimum threshold, thus ensuring the continuation of the CDU-FDP.[2]

Sources

1. ^{{cite news|last=Donahue|first=Patrick|title=Merkel’s Party Climbs in Poll as FDP Coalition Partner Plunges|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/merkel-s-party-climbs-in-poll-as-fdp-coalition-partner-plunges.html|accessdate=9 January 2013|newspaper=Bloomberg|date=9 January 2013}}
2. ^[https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21570693-local-defeat-albeit-only-hairs-breadth-spells-trouble-angela-merkel-vincible The vincible chancellor], The Economist, 26 January 2013
3. ^[https://www.welt.de/newsticker/news3/article108372411/Umfrage-CDU-staerkste-Kraft-in-Niedersachsen.html Umfrage: CDU stärkste Kraft in Niedersachsen]
4. ^Wahlumfragen im Auftrag des NDR
5. ^Wahlumfragen zur Landtagswahl im Niedersachsen.
6. ^Wahlumfragen zur Landtagswahl im Niedersachsen
7. ^Die politische Stimmung in Niedersachsen April 2012
{{Lower Saxony state election}}{{2013 elections in Germany}}{{DEFAULTSORT:Lower Saxony State Election, 2013}}

3 : 2013 elections in Germany|Elections in Lower Saxony|January 2013 events in Europe

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