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词条 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
释义

  1. Background

  2. Democratic primary

      Candidates    Declared    Declined  

  3. Republican primary

      Candidates    Declared    Declined  

  4. Third parties

      Candidates    Declared  

  5. General election

      Endorsements    Fundraising    Debates    Predictions    Polling    Results  

  6. See also

  7. References

  8. External links

{{Use mdy dates|date=January 2018}}{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
| country = Arkansas
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2008 United States Senate election in Arkansas
| previous_year = 2008
| next_election = 2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas
| next_year = 2020
| election_date = {{Start date|2014|11|4}}
| image1 =
| nominee1 = Tom Cotton
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| popular_vote1 = 478,819
| percentage1 = 56.5%
| image2 =
| nominee2 = Mark Pryor
| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)
| popular_vote2 = 334,174
| percentage2 = 39.4%
| map_image = Arkansas Senatorial Election Results by County, 2014.svg
| map_size = 210px
| map_caption = County results
Cotton: {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}}
Pryor: {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}}
| title = U.S. Senator
| before_election = Mark Pryor
| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)
| after_election = Tom Cotton
| after_party = Republican Party (United States)
}}{{ElectionsAR}}

The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. Although the race was initially anticipated to be close, Cotton defeated Pryor by a wider-than-expected margin in the general election; most outlets called the race for Cotton within half an hour after the polls closed. This marked the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans hold both Senate seats in Arkansas, and the Arkansas congressional delegation was entirely Republican. Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator.

Background

Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[1] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were successfully re-elected.[2]

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[3] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[4]

Democratic primary

Pryor was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

  • Mark Pryor, incumbent U.S. Senator[5]

Declined

  • Bobby Tullis, former state representative[6]

Republican primary

Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates

Declared

  • Tom Cotton, U.S. Representative[7]

Declined

  • Rick Crawford, U.S. Representative[8]
  • Mark Darr, Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas[9]
  • Timothy Griffin, U.S. Representative[10]
  • Steve Womack, U.S. Representative[11]

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

  • Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive[12]
  • Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010[12]

General election

Endorsements

{{Endorsements box
| title = Tom Cotton (R)
| list =
  • Club for Growth[13]
  • Timothy Griffin, U.S. Representative[11]
  • Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator[14]
  • Allen West, former U.S. Representative[15]
  • Steve Womack, U.S. Representative[11]
  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania and candidate for President of the United States in 2012[16]
  • Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential candidate[17]

}}{{Endorsements box
| title = Mark Pryor (D)
| list =
  • Arkansas Education Association[18]
  • Former President of the United States, Bill Clinton

}}

Fundraising

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Mark Pryor (D) $10,428,246 $12,034,784 $364,653
Tom Cotton (R) $7,557,443 $6,411,763 $1,885,435

Debates

  • [https://www.c-span.org/video/?322050-1/arkansas-senate-debate Complete video of debate], October 13, 2014

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[19]100|Tossup}} November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20]{{sort|103|Likely R}} November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[21]{{sort|100|Lean R}} November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[22]{{sort|100|Lean R}} November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Pryor (D)		Tom
Cotton (R)		 Other Undecided
Basswood Research March 16–17, 2013 600 ± 4% 35%43% — 22%
Basswood Research June 22–23, 2013 600 ± 4%41% 40% — 19%
[https://www.scribd.com/doc/158212312/AR-Sen-Clark-Research-for-AFSCME-July-2013 Clark Research] July 23–27, 2013 729 ± 4%43% 35% — 21%
On Message Inc. July 29–30, 2013 600 ± 4% 42%44% — 14%
Harper Polling August 4–5, 2013 587 ± 4.04% 41%43% — 16%
Polling Company/WomanTrend August 6–7, 2013 600 ± 4%45% 43% — 12%
Global Strategy Group August 26–29, 2013 501 ± ?%47% 40% — 13%
Harper Polling September 24–26, 2013 622 ± 3.93%45% 42% — 13%
Talk Business/Hendrix College October 8, 2013 603 ± 4%42% 41% — 17%
Public Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013 955 ± 3.2%44% 41% — 15%
University of Arkansas October 10–17, 2013 800 ± 3.5%34% 32% —34%
Impact Management Group October 24, 2013 911 ± 3.2% 41%42% — 18%
Polling Company/WomanTrend December 6–7, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 41%48% — 9%
Public Policy Polling December 13–15, 2013 1,004 ± 3.1% 44% 44% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports February 4–5, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40%45% 5% 10%
Harper Polling January 26–27, 2014 533 ± 4.24% 36%42% — 22%
Impact Management Group February 10, 2014 1,202 ± 2.83% 42%46% — 13%
Hickman AnalyticsFebruary 17–20, 2014400± 4.9% 39%41% 8% 12%
42%51% — 8%
Anzalone Lizst Grove Research March 27 – April 2, 2014 600 ± 4%48% 45% — 7%
Talk Business/Hendrix College April 3–4, 2014 1,068 ± 3%45.5% 42.5% 4%[26] 8%
[https://www.scribd.com/doc/217489671/AR-Sen-AR-Gov-Opinion-Research-Associates-Apr-2014 Opinion Research Associates] April 1–8, 2014 400 ± 5%48% 38% — 8%
Harper Polling April 9–10, 2014 522 ± 4.29% 39% 39% — 22%
[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/23/upshot/24upshot-south-poll.html New York Times/Kaiser Family] April 8–15, 2014 857 ± 4%46% 36% 4% 15%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 857 ± 3.35% 43%46% 4% 7%
Public Policy Polling April 25–27, 2014 840 ± 3.4%43% 42% — 16%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 4, 2014 876 ± 3.3%51% 40% 1% 3%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 43%47% 4% 6%
Public Opinion Strategies May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.39% 41%46% — 13%
Fabrizio Lee June 3–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 43%51% — 5%
Magellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014 755 ± 3.57% 45%49% 2% 4%
Impact Management Group June 29, 2014 1290 ± 2.72% 43%47% — 10%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20140721023108/http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/arkansas-polling-us-senate-governor-and-attorney-general Gravis Marketing] July 7–8, 2014 987 ± 3% 44%51% 5%[27] —
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,628 ± 2.9% 45%49% 1% 5%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research July 20–24, 2014 600 ± 4%48% 46% — 6%
Talk Business/Hendrix College July 22–25, 2014 1,780 ± 2.3% 42%44% 7%[23] 7%
Public Policy PollingAugust 1–3, 20141,066± 3% 39%41% 7%[23] 14%
41%43% — 16%
[https://www.scribd.com/doc/237445036/ORSurvery Opinion Research Associates] August 6–14, 2014 414 ± 4.9%46% 41% 4%[26] 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 25–26, 2014 750 ± 4%44% 43% 6% 6%
[https://gallery.mailchimp.com/0a361110a8a816b64fb4521ff/files/AR_FLYER_14_901.pdf ccAdvertising] August 31 – September 1, 2014 1,735 ± ? 29%37% — 34%
[https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-arkansas/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov] August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,572 ± 3% 39%43% 2% 16%
CNN/ORC InternationalAugust 28 – September 2, 2014 523 LV ± 4.5% 47%49% — 4%
839 RV ± 3.5%47% 38% — 14%
Hickman Analytics August 26 – September 3, 2014 700 ± 3.7%45% 43% — 12%
NBC News/MaristSeptember 2–4, 2014 639 LV ± 3.9% 40%45% 6%[31] 9%
1,068 RV ± 3% 41% 41% 8%[24] 11%
[https://web.archive.org/web/20140917133548/http://www.southernprogressfund.org/2014/09/new-statewide-poll/ Answers Unlimited] September 7–9, 2014 600 ± 3.5%46% 42% 4%[25] 8%
Gravis Marketing September 8–11, 2014 902 ± 4% 43%47% 2%[26] 8%
Hickman Analytics September 13–18, 2014 801 ± 3.5%46% 43% — 11%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 18–21, 20141,453± 2.6% 38%43% 6%[27] 13%
39%45% — 15%
Suffolk September 20–23, 2014 500 ± 4.4%44.8% 43% 5.4%[28] 6.8%
Rasmussen Reports September 24–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 40%47% 5% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,991 ± 2% 41%45% 1% 13%
Opinion Research Associates October 1–5, 2014 400 ± 5%45% 42% 5% 9%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014 707 ± 3.5% 39%46% 5%[29] 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–15, 2014 940 ± 3% 44%47% 4% 5%
Talk Business/Hendrix October 15–16, 2014 2,075 ± 2.2% 40.5%49% 4.5%[30] 6%
NBC News/MaristOctober 19–23, 2014 621 ± 3.9% 43%45% 6%[31] 7%
971 ± 3.1%43% 42% 6%[31] 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,567 ± 4% 42%47% 1% 10%
Opinion Research Associates October 25–26, 2014 401 ± 5%45% 44% 2%[32] 10%
Issues & Answers Network October 21–27, 2014 568 ± 4.1% 36%49% — 15%
Rasmussen Reports October 27–29, 2014 967 ± 3% 44%51% 4% 2%
Public Policy PollingOctober 30 – November 1, 20141,092± 3% 41%49% 4%[42] 5%
45%51% — 4%
[https://www.scribd.com/doc/245310596/AR-Sen-AR-Gov-Opinion-Research-Associates-for-Arkansas-Citizens-First-Congress-Nov-2014 Opinion Research Associates] October 30 – November 1, 2014 400 ± 5%45% 43% 4%[33] 8%

Results

{{Election box begin | title=United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2014[34]}}{{Election box winning candidate with party link
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| candidate = Tom Cotton
| votes = 478,819
| percentage = 56.50%
| change = N/A
}}{{Election box candidate with party link
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| candidate = Mark Pryor (incumbent)
| votes = 334,174
| percentage = 39.43%
| change = -40.10%
}}{{Election box candidate with party link
| party = Libertarian Party (United States)
| candidate = Nathan LaFrance
| votes = 17,210
| percentage = 2.03%
|change = N/A
}}{{Election box candidate with party link
| party = Green Party (United States)
| candidate = Mark Swaney
| votes = 16,797
| percentage = 1.98%
| change = -18.49%
}}{{Election box candidate with party link
| party = n/a
| candidate = Write-ins
| votes = 505
| percentage = 0.06%
|change = N/A
}}{{Election box total
| votes = 847,505
| percentage = 100.0%
|change = N/A
}}{{Election box gain with party link no swing
| winner = Republican Party (United States)
| loser = Democratic Party (United States)
| swing =
}}{{Election box end}}

See also

{{Portal|Government of the United States|Arkansas}}
  • 2014 United States Senate elections
  • 2014 United States elections

References

1. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.greenpartywatch.org/2008/11/06/rebekah-kennedy-pulls-record-results-for-us-senate | title=Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America's #1 Source for Green Party News & Views | publisher=Green Party Watch | date=November 7, 2008 | accessdate=September 4, 2010}}
2. ^{{cite web | url=http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2013/08/05/mark-pryor-could-face-historic | title= Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014 | work=Smart Politics | first=Eric | last=Ostermeier | date= August 5, 2013}}
3. ^{{cite web | url=http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2013/03/20/tom-cottons-quandary-can-house | title= Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats? | work=Smart Politics | first=Eric | last=Ostermeier | date= March 20, 2013}}
4. ^{{cite web | url=http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2014/11/17/will-a-freshman-us-representat | title= Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016? | work=Smart Politics | first=Eric | last=Ostermeier | date= November 17, 2014}}
5. ^{{cite news | url=http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2012/04/19/sen-mark-pryor-is-running-for-re-election-in-2014 | title=Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014 | publisher=Arkansas Times | date=April 19, 2012}}
6. ^{{cite news | url=http://www.naturalstatereport.com/2013/07/31/national-republicans-cluesless-in-ar/| title=D.C. GOP can't get a pulse on Arkansas| publisher=Natural State Report | date=July 31, 2013}}
7. ^{{cite news | last=Glueck | first=Katie | title=Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate | url=http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/tom-cotton-arkansas-senate-run-94978.html?hp=t2_3 | newspaper=Politico | date=July 31, 2013}}
8. ^{{cite news | url=http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2012/nov/12/democrat-mark-pryor-seen-likely-gop-targe-20121112/| title=Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in '14| publisher=Arkansas Online | first1=Alex | last1=Daniels | first2=Charlie | last2=Frago| date=November 12, 2012}}
9. ^{{cite news | url=http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/94086/mark-darr-announces-run-for-arkansas-4th-district-seat| title=Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat | agency=Associated Press | first=Andrew | last=DeMillo | publisher=Arkansas Business| date=August 13, 2013}}
10. ^  {{webarchive | url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121203031719/http://talkbusiness.net/2012/11/griffin-wins-seat-on-ways-and-means-committee-will-not-seek-higher-office | date=December 3, 2012 }}
11. ^1 2 {{cite news | url=http://talkbusiness.net/2013/08/democrats-republicans-react-to-cotton-changing-political-landscape/| title=Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape | work=Talk Business Arkansas | first=Ryan | last=Saylor | date=August 7, 2013 | accessdate=August 13, 2013}}
12. ^1 {{cite web | url=http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Candidates-who-filed-for-office-in-Arkansas-5284882.php | title=Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas | date=March 3, 2014 | accessdate=March 5, 2014 | work=sfgate.com}}
13. ^{{cite web | last=Trygstad | first=Kyle | title=Club for Growth Backs Mark Pryor Challenger | url=http://atr.rollcall.com/club-for-growth-backs-mark-pryor-challenger/ | work=Roll Call | accessdate=August 7, 2013}}
14. ^{{cite web | last=Leary | first=Alex | title=Rubio endorses Tom Cotton in Arkansas Senate race | url=http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/rubio-endorses-tom-cotton-in-arkansas-senate-race/2142440 | work=Tampa Bay Times | accessdate=September 20, 2013}}
15. ^{{cite web | last=Kubin | first=Jacquie | title=Allen West Guardian Fund 2014: Endorsing tomorrow's leaders | url=http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/political-potpourri/2013/sep/13/allen-west-guardian-fund-2014-endorsements-announc/ | work=The Washington Times | accessdate=September 19, 2013}}
16. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.patriotvoices.com/rick_santorum_and_patriot_voices_pac_announce_endorsements_in_four_key_u_s_senate_races | title=Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races | date=April 22, 2014 | accessdate=April 25, 2014 | work=Patriot Voices}}
17. ^{{cite web | first= | title=Political Note: Romney Endorses Cotton | url=http://swtimes.com/news/political-note-romney-endorses-cotton | date=June 13, 2014 | accessdate=July 31, 2014 | work=Time Record Online Edition}}
18. ^{{cite web | first=Max | last=Brantley | title=UPDATE: Arkansas Education Association to endorse Mark Pryor. And, boy, did he go after Cotton today on Medicare, Social Security | url=http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2014/04/25/arkansas-education-association-to-endorse-mark-pryor | work=Arkansas Times | date=April 25, 2014 | accessdate=July 31, 2014}}
19. ^{{cite web | title=2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 | url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139256 | website=The Cook Political Report | accessdate=September 20, 2018}}
20. ^{{cite web | title=The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks | url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-crystal-balls-final-2014-picks/ | website=Sabato's Crystal Ball | accessdate=September 20, 2018}}
21. ^{{cite web | title=2014 Senate Ratings | url=http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2014-senate-ratings-november-6-2014 | work=Senate Ratings | publisher=The Rothenberg Political Report | accessdate=September 20, 2018}}
22. ^{{cite web | title=2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014 | url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html| publisher=Real Clear Politics | accessdate=September 20, 2018}}
23. ^1 Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
24. ^Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
25. ^1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
26. ^1 Nathan LaFrance (L)
27. ^Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
28. ^Nathan LaFrance (L) 2.8%, Mark Swaney (G) 2.6%
29. ^Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
30. ^Nathan LaFrance (L) 2.5%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
31. ^1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
32. ^Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
33. ^1 Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
34. ^{{cite web | url=http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/53237/149537/Web01/en/summary.html | title=November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results | publisher=Arkansas Secretary of State | accessdate=November 23, 2014}}

External links

  • U.S. Senate elections in Arkansas, 2014 at Ballotpedia
  • Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
  • Arkansas Senate debate excerpts, OnTheIssues.org
Campaign websites (Archived)
  • [https://web.archive.org/web/20141031182116/https://pryorforsenatesec.ngpvanhost.com/form/262195499406198528 Mark Pryor (D) for U.S. Senate]
  • [https://web.archive.org/web/20141031182215/http://votetomcotton.com/ Tom Cotton (R) for U.S. Senate]
  • [https://web.archive.org/web/20141031181524/http://www.lafrance2014.com/ Nathan LaFrance (L) for U.S. Senate]
  • [https://www.facebook.com/pages/Mark-Swaney-for-U-S-Senate/1376495275959638 Mark Swaney (G) for U.S. Senate]
{{United States elections, 2014}}

3 : United States Senate elections in Arkansas|2014 United States Senate elections|2014 Arkansas elections
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