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词条 2014–17 Brazilian drought
释义

  1. Extent

  2. Potential causes

  3. Effect on crop production

  4. Effect on hydropower generation

  5. Potential solutions

  6. See also

  7. References

{{Expand Portuguese|Seca na Região Sudeste do Brasil em 2014–2017|date=November 2017}}{{Update|date=December 2018}}

The 2014–17 Brazilian drought is a severe drought affecting the southeast of Brazil including the metropolitan areas of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. In São Paulo, it has been described as the worst drought in 100 years.[1][2] The city of São Paulo appeared to be affected the most and by the beginning of February many of its residents were subjected to sporadic water cutoffs.[3] Rain at the end of 2015 and in early 2016 brought relief, however, long term problems in water supply remain in São Paulo state.[4]

Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo still being affected by drought in 2016 due to the 2014–16 El Niño event. In these areas the rains are irregular since 2014 and the drought worsened from 2015.[5][6][7]Over 50% of the Brazil was affected, as the drought spanned sections of all nine northeastern states. Between 2012-2015, the federal government decreed a state of “public calamity” over 6,200 times due to the droughts.[8]

This is the worst drought in Brazil in the last 100 years, according to the O Estado de S. Paulo in September 2017.[9]

Extent

Usually the rainy season starts in November,[9] but lack of rain in the 2014/15 season led to a major shortfall in the water supply in the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais.[1][10] With major reservoirs operating at their lowest capacity (the main reservoir system of Cantareira supplying São Paulo being at only 6% of its capacity in early February[1][11]) officials at São Paulo warned about extended rationing as water may run out before the next rainy season in November 2015.[9] In response, the water utility of São Paulo, Sabesp, has reduced water pressure in the system. It also started to impose punitive tariffs on users who use more than in previous years.[12] By early February residents had started to recycle and hoard water.[11]

At the beginning of the dry season in early May 2015, the water crisis continued and water reservoirs in the São Paulo area were insufficiently filled.[13] Work was underway to link up various reservoirs to make better use of existing water resources.[13] By October 2015 the Cantareira reservoirs contained 12% of their capacity while the polluted Billings Reservoir had 20%.[14]

With the arrival of the rainy season at the end of 2015, the drought situation improved. In February 2016 torrential downpours caused flooding in São Paulo.[15] Water levels at Cantareira had recovered from 20 percent capacity at the beginning of December to almost 50 percent by mid February 2016.[4] However, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo still being affected by drought in 2016, and in 5 May the Espírito Santo Government declared a state of emergency across the state as the drought worsened.[7]

There was concern that an unresolved water crisis may impact the 2016 Olympic Games.[24] In 2017, the rains remained extremely irregular in Minas Gerais,[16] Espírito Santo[17] and most parts of the regions Central-West and Northeast. This is the worst drought in Brazil in the last 100 years, according to the O Estado de S. Paulo in September 2017.[18]

Potential causes

The drought situation is not unexpected. São Paulo is experiencing its third consecutive year of diminished rain falls.[9] A drought situation was already experienced in early 2014.[19] Water management is poor, pipes leak, and the infrastructure is old.[1] Past reports by scientists, environmentalists and technical experts were overridden by real estate developers and industrial and agricultural interests.[9] Further, lack of protection of watersheds and reservoirs has polluted water sources and made it difficult to bring usable water to the market.[9] The expansion of deforestation activities into the Amazon basin has been linked to the reduction of rainfall in the south of Brazil.[1][3][9] Even if the Amazon's evaporation was enough to generate flying rivers, urban heat islands coupled with a heat wave prevented the arrival of humid air masses that generate rain. In turn, Brazilian regions on the way to the Southeast had an uprise of rain, to the point the Central-West and Southern regions suffered from floods.[20]

Effect on crop production

Brazil is the world’s third-largest agricultural exporter, and the sector represents approximately 6% of the country’s GDP. Irrigation for agriculture accounts for 72% of water use in Brazil, compared to just 9% for urban consumption. Less water supply for crop production lead to "The Agricultural Economy Institute" stating that 2014 accounted for São Paulo's worst agricultural losses in half a century. [21]

The irregular rainfall pattern contributed to a reduction in crop production through the drought period, due to an atmospheric blockage which prevented a cold front from advancing over key crop regions in Brazil, the world's largest exporter of coffee, sugar, soy and beef. In 2014 the drought wiped out a third of the country's coffee crop in some areas, which caused global coffee arabica prices to rise 50% over the year. [22] In 2015 coffee trees had not recovered from the extreme heat and drought quick enough, triggering another arabica price rally. Crop production of soy, one of the country’s largest export crops, decreased by 17% during the drought. [23]
The Cemaden’s Rain Monitoring System showed that severe droughts were observed  in the states of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, they are both the largest regions for soybean production and fourth-largest beef producers in Brazil. [24]

Effect on hydropower generation

As 70% of Brazil’s electricity is generated by hydropower, the lack of water lead to energy rationing in addition to water rationing.[25] [12] In response to decreased hydroelectric power, rolling power cuts were instituted.[26] Water and electricity prices were expected to rise a month or two after the elections in October. Power utilities In Brazil stated that the loss of hydro-generating capacity had cost them 15.8bn reais (£4.3bn). Most of this was spent on more expensive alternative such as oil and other carbon-based fuels that filled the gap in electricity supply. This in turn pushed up Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions in the years of 2015 to 2017. [27]

Potential solutions

Analysts see the crisis as a relatively short-term stressor but believe that it has the potential to be the "catalyst" to solve specifically São Paulo’s water problems.[12] Short term solutions include drilling more wells and more recycling of water. Long term solutions include the transfer of more water from additional river basins. Thus, a new 15 km connection has been authorised to be built to bring water from the Paraiba do Sul river basin to the Cantareira system, watersheds that have distinct aquatic biota. [28].[12] These water diversion projects transport water between isolated river basins, without regard for ecology or aquatic biodiversity. Also, repair of leaking pipes is estimated to save 6% of total municipal water consumption in São Paulo.[12]

In 2018, steep fines were implement for above-average water use, but some fear the measure came too late. The Cantareira reservoir was at 6.8% capacity at the start of 2018, even after several afternoons of violent summer rainstorms in Sao Paulo. [29]

See also

  • Water management in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo
  • Grande Seca

References

1. ^1 2 3 4 {{cite web| url=https://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2015/02/10/384971276/a-historic-drought-grips-brazils-economic-capital |author=Lourdes Garcia-Navarro, Paula Moura |title=A Historic Drought Grips Brazil's Economic Capital|publisher=NPR |date=February 10, 2015 |accessdate=February 13, 2015}}
2. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-29583818/brazil-hit-by-worst-drought-in-decades|title=Brazil hit by worst drought in decades|website=BBC News|language=en|access-date=2019-03-25}}
3. ^1 {{cite web |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/17/world/americas/drought-pushes-sao-paulo-brazil-toward-water-crisis.html?_r=0 |author=Simon Romero| title=Taps Start to Run Dry in Brazil’s Largest City.| publisher=New York Times |date=February 16, 2015| accessdate=February 18, 2015}}
4. ^1 {{cite web| url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-water-idUSKCN0VR1YJ |author=C. Stauffer |title=Drought ends in Brazil's Sao Paulo but future still uncertain| publisher=Reuters |date=February 18, 2016 |accessdate=May 13, 2016}}
5. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.climatempo.com.br/noticia/2015/11/02/el-nino-acentua-a-seca-no-rio-doce-9757 |title=El Niño acentua a seca no rio Doce |language=Portuguese |author=Josélia Pegorim |date=November 2, 2015 |publisher=Climatempo |accessdate=May 20, 2016}}
6. ^{{cite web|url=http://noticias.terra.com.br/climatempo/seca-continua-no-es-e-em-mg,e55b438b112229546f0002be0cff9103h4uuca3z.html |title=Seca continua no ES e em MG |language=Portuguese |author=Terra |date=October 7, 2015 |accessdate=May 20, 2016}}
7. ^1 {{cite web|url=http://www.gazetaonline.com.br/_conteudo/2016/05/cbn_vitoria/reportagens/3942194-seca-faz-espirito-santo-decretar-situacao-de-emergencia.html |title=Seca faz Espírito Santo decretar situação de emergência |language=Portuguese |author=Patrícia Scalzer |date=May 5, 2016 |accessdate=May 20, 2016}}
8. ^{{Cite web|url=https://brazilian.report/money/2018/07/24/brazil-agribusiness-drought-season/|title=Brazil's agribusiness to suffer from worst drought season|date=2018-07-24|website=The Brazilian Report|language=en-US|access-date=2019-03-25}}
9. ^1 2 3 4 5 {{cite web |url=https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2015/feb/11/brazil-drought-ngo-alliance-50-ngos-saving-water-collapse| author=Marussia Whately, Rebeca Lerer |title=Brazil drought: water rationing alone won't save São Paulo|publisher=The Guardian| date=February 11, 2015 |accessdate=February 13, 2015}}
10. ^{{cite web| url= https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-30962813| title= Brazil's most populous region facing worst drought in 80 years| publisher=BBC| date=January 24, 2015 |accessdate=February 13, 2015}}
11. ^1 {{cite web |url=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2015/02/brazil-drought-prompts-drastic-measures-save-water-150213154556221.html |author= |title=Brazil drought prompts drastic measures to save water| publisher=Al Jazeera| date=February 14, 2015 |accessdate=February 14, 2015}}
12. ^1 2 3 4 {{cite web| url=https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/sao-paulo-drought-could-benefit-brazil |title=Sao Paulo Drought Could Benefit Brazil| publisher=Stratfor| date=February 2, 2015 |accessdate=February 18, 2015}}
13. ^1 {{cite web| url=http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Military-Could-Step-in-Over-Brazil-Drought-Chaos-20150506-0040.html |title=An engineer for Sao Paulo state’s water company said that "scenes from the end of the world" would ensue if the city ran out of water.| publisher=telesur |date=May 6, 2015 |accessdate=June 23, 2015}}
14. ^{{cite web |url=http://time.com/4054262/drought-brazil-video/ |author=Jon Gerberg| title=A Megacity Without Water: São Paulo’s Drought |publisher=Time magazine |date=October 13, 2015 |accessdate=November 27, 2015}}
15. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/02/drought-stricken-sao-paulo-hit-floods-150226101119755.html| author=Everton Fox| title=Drought-stricken Sao Paulo hit by floods |publisher=Al Jazeera |date=February 26, 2015 |accessdate=March 5, 2015}}
16. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.em.com.br/app/noticia/gerais/2017/08/20/interna_gerais,893422/estiagem-e-degradacao-deixam-rios-e-lagoas-de-mg-em-situacao-dramatica.shtml |title=Estiagem e degradação deixam rios e lagoas de Minas em situação dramática |language=Portuguese |author=Gustavo Werneck |date=August 20, 2017 |publisher=Estado de Minas |accessdate=October 11, 2017}}
17. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.gazetaonline.com.br/cbn_vitoria/reportagens/2017/10/fantasma-do-racionamento-assombra-o-espirito-santo-1014102081.html |title="Fantasma" do racionamento assombra o Espírito Santo |language=Portuguese |author=Gazeta Online |date=October 2, 2017 |publisher=Gazeta Online |accessdate=October 11, 2017}}
18. ^1 {{cite web |url=http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,maiores-represas-do-pais-enfrentam-seca-historica,70002012904 |title=Maiores represas do País enfrentam seca histórica |language=Portuguese |author=André Borges |date=September 23, 2017 |publisher=O Estado de S. Paulo |accessdate=October 11, 2017}}
19. ^{{cite news|last1=Phillips|first1=Dom|title=São Paulo faces a critical water shortage as the World Cup prepares to kick off|url=https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/sao-paulo-water-shortage-world-cup|accessdate=3 August 2014|work=The Guardian|date=21 May 2014}}
20. ^{{cite web| url=http://super.abril.com.br/ideias/o-brasil-secou|author=Camila Almeida |title=O Brasil secou|work=Superinteressante|language=Portuguese| date=November 2014| accessdate=June 23, 2015}}
21. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.as-coa.org/articles/brazil-update-historic-drought-takes-toll-agriculture|title=Brazil Update: Historic Drought Takes Toll on Agriculture|last=Glickhouse|first=Rachel|website=AS/COA|language=en|access-date=2019-02-28}}
22. ^{{Cite web|url=http://www.wfo-oma.org/news/the-effects-of-drought-in-brazil.html|title=The effects of drought in Brazil|last=Generale|first=O. M. A.|website=www.wfo-oma.org|language=en|access-date=2019-03-15}}
23. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/brazil-water-supply-crops-still-at-risk-a-year-after-epic-drought/|title=Brazil Water Supply, Crops Still at Risk a Year after Epic Drought|website=Scientific American|language=en|access-date=2019-02-28}}
24. ^{{Cite web|url=https://brazilian.report/money/2018/07/24/brazil-agribusiness-drought-season/|title=Brazil's agribusiness to suffer from worst drought season|date=2018-07-24|website=The Brazilian Report|language=en-US|access-date=2019-03-25}}
25. ^{{cite web| url= http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a140a1e6-b14e-11e4-a830-00144feab7de.html#slide0 |author= Joe Leahy |title= São Paulo drought raises fears of Brazil energy crisis |publisher=Financial Times| date= February 11, 2015 |accessdate=February 13, 2015}}
26. ^1 {{cite web| url=https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/may/04/brazil-drought-2016-olympic-games-rio-de-janiero-rio-20-climate-change |author=Matthew Wheeland |title=Brazil struggles with drought and pollution as Olympics loom large |publisher=The Guardian| date=May 4, 2015| accessdate=June 23, 2015}}
27. ^{{Cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2014/sep/05/brazil-drought-crisis-rationing|title=Brazil drought crisis leads to rationing and tensions|last=Watts|first=Jonathan|date=2014-09-05|work=The Guardian|access-date=2019-03-15|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}
28. ^{{Cite journal|last=Agostinho|first=Ângelo Antônio|last2=Pelicice|first2=Fernando Mayer|last3=Orsi|first3=Mario Luís|last4=Magalhães|first4=André Lincoln Barroso de|last5=Lima-Junior|first5=Dilermando Pereira|last6=Daga|first6=Vanessa Salete|last7=Azevedo-Santos|first7=Valter M.|last8=Vitule|first8=Jean Ricardo Simões|date=2015-03-27|title=Brazil's drought: Protect biodiversity|url=http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6229/1427.2|journal=Science|language=en|volume=347|issue=6229|pages=1427–1428|doi=10.1126/science.347.6229.1427-b|issn=0036-8075|pmid=25814574}}
29. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/brazil-water-supply-crops-still-at-risk-a-year-after-epic-drought/|title=Brazil Water Supply, Crops Still at Risk a Year after Epic Drought|website=Scientific American|language=en|access-date=2019-03-25}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:2014-16 Brazilian drought}}

26 : Water in Brazil|Climate of Brazil|Droughts in South America|21st-century droughts|Natural disasters in Brazil|Environment of Espírito Santo|Environment of Minas Gerais|Environment of Rio de Janeiro (state)|Environment of São Paulo (state)|2014 disasters in Brazil|2015 disasters in Brazil|2016 disasters in Brazil|2017 disasters in Brazil|2014 natural disasters|2015 natural disasters|2016 natural disasters|2017 natural disasters|2014 in the environment|2015 in the environment|2016 in the environment|2017 in the environment|2010s droughts|2014 droughts|2015 droughts|2016 droughts|2017 droughts
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