| 词条 | 2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 释义 |
| election_name = 2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election | country = Castilla–La Mancha | type = parliamentary | ongoing = no | previous_election = 2011 Castilian-Manchegan regional election | previous_year = 2011 | next_election = 2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election | next_year = 2019 | outgoing_members = | elected_members = | seats_for_election = All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha | majority_seats = 17 | opinion_polls = 2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election#Opinion polls | registered = 1,576,351 {{small|0.6%}} | turnout = 1,127,147 (71.5%) 4.5 pp | election_date = 24 May 2015 | image1 = | leader1 = María Dolores de Cospedal | party1 = People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha | leader_since1 = 14 June 2006 | leaders_seat1 = Toledo | last_election1 = 25 seats, 48.1% | seats1 = 16 | seat_change1 = 9 | popular_vote1 = 413,349 | percentage1 = 37.5% | swing1 = 10.6 pp | image2 = | leader2 = Emiliano García-Page | party2 = Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha | leader_since2 = 26 February 2012 | leaders_seat2 = Toledo | last_election2 = 24 seats, 43.4% | seats2 = 15 | seat_change2 = 9 | popular_vote2 = 398,104 | percentage2 = 36.1% | swing2 = 7.3 pp | image3 = | leader3 = José García Molina | party3 = Podemos (Spanish political party) | leader_since3 = 1 April 2015 | leaders_seat3 = Toledo | last_election3 = Did not contest | seats3 = 2 | seat_change3 = 2 | popular_vote3 = 107,463 | percentage3 = 9.7% | swing3 = New party | map_image = CastillaLaManchaProvinceMapCortes2015.png | map_size = 300px | map_caption = Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha | title = President | before_election = María Dolores de Cospedal | before_party = People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha | after_election = Emiliano García-Page | after_party = Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha }} The 2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the Autonomous Community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain. OverviewElectoral systemThe Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ({{lang-es|Voto rogado}}).[2] The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[3] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of three seats, with the remaining 18 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.{{efn|The electoral law was amended twice, in 2012 and 2014. The 2012 amendment provided for a 53 seat-Cortes and a fixed allocation of seats among constituencies: 10 for Albacete, 12 for Ciudad Real, 9 for Cuenca, 9 for Guadalajara and 13 for Toledo. As a result of them being superseded by the 2014 amendment, no election was fought under these rules.}}[1][4] The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[4][5][6] Election dateThe term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 24 May 2015.[1][4][5][6] The President of the Junta of Communities had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1] Opinion pollsThe table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha (25 until 13 August 2012 and 27 from 13 August 2012 to 21 July 2014).
ResultsOverall
|title=Popular vote |titlebar=#ddd |width=550px |barwidth=500px |bars={{bar percent|PP|{{People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha/meta/color}}|37.49}}{{bar percent|PSOE|{{Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha/meta/color}}|36.11}}{{bar percent|Podemos|{{Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color}}|9.75}}{{bar percent|C's|{{Citizens (Spanish political party)/meta/color}}|8.64}}{{bar percent|Ganemos–LV–IU|{{Ganemos Castilla–La Mancha/meta/color}}|3.10}}{{bar percent|Others|#777777|3.17}}{{bar percent|Blank ballots|#DDDDDD|1.75}} }}{{bar box |title=Seats |titlebar=#ddd |width=550px |barwidth=500px |bars={{bar percent|PP|{{People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha/meta/color}}|48.48}}{{bar percent|PSOE|{{Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha/meta/color}}|45.45}}{{bar percent|Podemos|{{Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color}}|6.06}} }} Distribution by constituency
Notes{{notelist}}References
1. ^1 2 3 {{cite act |title=Statute of Autonomy of Castilla–La Mancha of 1982 |type=Organic Law |number=9 |work=Official State Gazette |language=Spanish |date=10 August 1982 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1982-20820&tn=1&p=20140522 |accessdate=15 September 2017}} 2. ^{{cite web |last=Reig Pellicer |first=Naiara |date=16 December 2015 |url=http://www.cafebabel.co.uk/politics/article/spanish-elections-begging-for-the-right-to-vote.html |title=Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote |website=cafebabel.co.uk |accessdate=17 July 2017}} 3. ^{{cite web |last=Gallagher |first=Michael |date=30 July 2012 |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170730092518/http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/effthresh.php |title=Effective threshold in electoral systems |publisher=Trinity College, Dublin |accessdate=22 July 2017}} 4. ^1 2 {{cite act |title=Castilla–La Mancha Electoral Law of 1986 |type=Law |number=5 |work=Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha |language=Spanish |date=23 December 1986 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1987-2164&tn=1&p=20140728 |accessdate=15 September 2017}} 5. ^1 {{cite act |title=General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985 |type=Organic Law |number=5 |work=Official State Gazette |language=Spanish |date=19 June 1985 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1985-11672&tn=1&p=20150331 |accessdate=28 December 2016}} 6. ^1 {{cite web |url=http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/LOREG_ENG |title=Representation of the people Institutional Act |author= |date= |website=juntaelectoralcentral.es |publisher=Central Electoral Commission |accessdate=16 June 2017}} 7. ^{{cite web |title=Los sondeos a pie de urna dan la victoria a María Dolores Cospedal, que tendrá entre 15 y 17 diputados |url=http://www.vocesdecuenca.com/web/voces-de-cuenca/-/los-sondeos-a-pie-de-urna-dan-la-victoria-a-maria-dolores-cospedal-que-tendra-entre-15-y-17-diputados |language=Spanish |work=Voces de Cuenca |date=24 May 2015}} 8. ^{{cite web |title=El PP obtendría entre 15 y 17 diputados en Castilla–La Mancha y el PSOE entre 13 y 15 |url=http://www.abc.es/toledo/ciudad/20150524/abci-obtendria-diputados-castilla-mancha-201505242023.html |language=Spanish |work=ABC |date=24 May 2015}} 9. ^{{cite web |title=Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015 |url=http://www.slideshare.net/GAD3_com/con-150405-comparativa-encuestas-resultados-antena-3-48692251 |language=Spanish |work=GAD3 |date=28 May 2015}} 10. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal, ante su primera reválida |url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/2015/05/17/036.html |language=Spanish |work=ABC |date=17 May 2015}} 11. ^{{cite web |title=Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas |url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/2015/05/17/023.html |language=Spanish |work=ABC |date=17 May 2015}} 12. ^{{cite web |title=El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla–La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja |url=http://www.larazon.es/espana/el-pp-mantendria-sin-apoyos-castilla-y-leon-castilla-la-mancha-murcia-y-la-rioja-ML9739680 |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=17 May 2015}} 13. ^{{cite web |title=Castilla–La Mancha: Cospedal se mantiene en el límite de revalidar su mandato |url=http://www.larazon.es/espana/castilla-la-mancha-cospedal-se-mantiene-en-el-limite-de-revalidar-su-mandato-JL9739579 |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=17 May 2015}} 14. ^{{cite web |title=Castilla–La Mancha. Encuesta mayo 2015 |url=http://www.larazon.es/documents/10165/0/video_content_3083750_20150517025119.pdf |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=17 May 2015}} 15. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal se queda al filo de la mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha |url=http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/05/17/555831b3268e3e4f2f8b456c.html |language=Spanish |work=El Mundo |date=17 May 2015}} 16. ^{{cite web |title=Intención de voto en Castilla–La Mancha. Gráfico |url=http://www.elmundo.es/grafico/espana/2015/05/16/5557891122601dcd708b4580.html |language=Spanish |work=El Mundo |date=17 May 2015}} 17. ^{{cite web |title=La última y muy reciente encuesta interna del PP: mayoría absoluta de Cospedal y victoria en las cinco provincias |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150518072900/http://www.eldigitalcastillalamancha.es/especial_elecciones_2015/articulo.asp?idarticulo=186442 |language=Spanish |work=eldigitalcastillalamancha.es |date=11 May 2015}} 18. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal vence sin mayoría absoluta tras la irrupción de Ciudadanos |url=https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/05/09/actualidad/1431189162_669313.html |language=Spanish |work=El País |date=9 May 2015}} 19. ^{{cite web |title=Situación política en Castilla–La Mancha |url=http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/09/media/1431196281_594577.html |language=Spanish |work=El País |date=9 May 2015}} 20. ^{{cite web |title=Estudio político Castilla–La Mancha / mayo de 2015 |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150518081802/http://www.elplural.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Encuesta-NOXA-Castilla-La-Mancha-1.pdf |language=Spanish |work=Noxa Consulting |date=10 May 2015}} 21. ^{{cite web |title=Castilla–La Mancha, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Noxa |url=http://www.electograph.com/2015/05/castilla-la-mancha-mayo-2015-sondeo-noxa.html |language=Spanish |work=Electograph |date=10 May 2015}} 22. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal ganará las elecciones y superará a Page en las 5 provincias |url=http://www.latribunadetoledo.es/noticia/Z158FD366-0639-A11E-01BD66A8339B0328/20150514/cospedal/roza/mayoria/absoluta/gana/cinco/provincias/region |language=Spanish |work=La Tribuna de Toledo |date=14 May 2015}} 23. ^{{cite web |title=Page vencería aunque sin mayoría, en la encuesta de La Voz del Tajo |url=http://www.lavozdeltajo.com/noticia/16959/Castilla-La-Mancha/Page-venceria-aunque-sin-mayoria-en-la-encuesta-de-La-Voz-del-Tajo.html |language=Spanish |work=lavozdeltajo.com |date=5 May 2015}} 24. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal, cerca de obtener su segunda mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha |url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/2015/05/03/026.html |language=Spanish |work=ABC |date=3 May 2015}} 25. ^{{cite web |title=Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla–La Mancha (Estudio nº 3071. Marzo-Abril 2015) |url=http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3071mar_A.pdf |language=Spanish |work=CIS |date=7 May 2015}} 26. ^{{cite web |title=Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha" |url=http://hemeroteca.lavanguardia.com/preview/2015/05/08/pagina-16/95390495/pdf.html |language=Spanish |work=La Vanguardia |date=8 May 2015}} 27. ^{{cite web |title=Page ganaría a Cospedal en la mayoría de grandes localidades de la región |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150430013630/http://www.lacalle.info/page-ganaria-a-cospedal-en-la-mayoria-de-grandes-localidades-de-la-region/ |language=Spanish |work=La Calle |date=22 April 2015}} 28. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal pierde la mayoría y empata con Page, mejor valorado por los ciudadanos |url=https://issuu.com/lacalleguadalajara/docs/la_calle_-_14 |language=Spanish |work=La Calle |date=24 March 2015}} 29. ^{{cite web |title=El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos |url=http://www.larazon.es/espana/el-pp-seguira-siendo-el-mas-votado-en-las-cc-aa-pese-a-la-caida-en-apoyos-CM9493271 |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=20 April 2015}} 30. ^{{cite web |title=Castilla–La Mancha: Cospedal aguanta el tipo ante un PSOE desgastado en la oposición |url=http://www.larazon.es/espana/castilla-la-mancha-cospedal-aguanta-el-tipo-ante-un-psoe-desgastado-en-la-oposicion-NN9492942 |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=20 April 2015}} 31. ^{{cite web |title=Castilla–La Mancha. Encuesta marzo 2015 |url=http://www.larazon.es/documents/10165/0/video_content_2946308_20150420023459.pdf |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=20 April 2015}} 32. ^{{cite web |title=Los sondeos prevén la entrada de Podemos en Castilla–La Mancha y la salida de Cospedal del Gobierno |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150226013122/http://vozpopuli.com/actualidad/58098-los-sondeos-preven-la-entrada-de-podemos-en-castilla-la-mancha-y-la-salida-de-cospedal-del-gobierno |language=Spanish |work=VozPópuli |date=25 February 2015}} 33. ^{{cite web |title=Castilla–La Mancha, Febrero 2015. Sondeos internos PP y PSOE |url=http://www.electograph.com/2015/02/castilla-la-mancha-febrero-2015-sondeos.html |language=Spanish |work=Electograph |date=25 February 2015}} 34. ^{{cite web |title=Castilla–La Mancha, Febrero 2015. Sondeo interno PP |url=http://www.electograph.com/2015/02/castilla-la-mancha-febrero-2015-sondeo.html |language=Spanish |work=Electograph |date=20 February 2015}} 35. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal revalida |url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/2015/01/28/022.html |language=Spanish |work=ABC |date=28 January 2015}} 36. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal repetirá en Castilla La Mancha |url=https://gaceta.es/noticias/archivo-2/cospedal-salva-los-muebles-castilla-mancha-29012015-1914/index.php |language=Spanish |work=La Gaceta |date=29 January 2015}} 37. ^{{cite web |title=Castilla–La Mancha, Enero 2015. Sondeo interno PP |url=http://www.electograph.com/2015/02/castilla-la-mancha-enero-2015-sondeo_2.html |language=Spanish |work=Electograph |date=2 February 2015}} 38. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal renovará la mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha |url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/2015/03/01/032.html |language=Spanish |work=ABC |date=1 March 2015}} 39. ^{{cite web |title=El PP revalidaría la mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha con 17 diputados |url=http://www.abc.es/toledo/ciudad/20150201/abci-revalidaria-mayoria-absoluta-castilla-201502012256.html |language=Spanish |work=ABC |date=1 February 2015}} 40. ^{{cite web |title=El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015 |url=http://www.desarrollando-ideas.com/publico/141104_dmasi_Informe_especial_reparto_poder_territorial_2015.pdf |language=Spanish |website=desarrollando-ideas.com |date=31 October 2014}} 41. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal revalidaría la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones regionales |url=http://www.latribunadealbacete.es/noticia/Z393DAA1B-F425-70D9-347B0279E0187DBD/20141117/cospedal/revalidaria/mayoria/absoluta/elecciones/regionales |language=Spanish |work=La Tribuna de Albacete |date=17 November 2014}} 42. ^{{cite web |title=El PP refuerza su mayoría absoluta con 28 diputados frente a los 23 del PSOE |url=http://www.abc.es/toledo/ciudad/20140504/abci-refuerza-mayoria-absoluta-diputados-201405042204.html |language=Spanish |work=ABC |date=4 May 2014}} 43. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal repetiría mayoría absoluta con 4 diputados más que el PSOE |url=http://www.latribunadealbacete.es/noticia/ZAC99E578-AE60-FE45-AB7B6C3EBC2511BB/20131216/cospedal/repetiria/mayoria/absoluta/4/diputados/mas/psoe |language=Spanish |work=La Tribuna de Albacete |date=16 December 2013}} 44. ^{{cite web|title=El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303192445/http://www.larazon.es/espana/el-pp-ganaria-de-nuevo-en-9-de-13-autonomias-LJ4391184 |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=18 November 2013}} 45. ^{{cite web |title=Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013 |url=http://www.larazon.es/documents/10165/0/video%285843%29.pdf |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=18 November 2013}} 46. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal volvería a ganar por mayoría absoluta |url=http://www.latribunadealbacete.es/noticia/Z6D791E3C-B4C9-8E27-B4AE479BFF1F4016/20130520/cospedal/volveria/ganar/mayoria/absoluta |language=Spanish |work=La Tribuna de Albacete |date=20 May 2013}} 47. ^{{cite web |title=El PP mantiene el poder autonómico |url=http://www.larazon.es/espana/el-pp-mantiene-el-poder-autonomico-AF2250507 |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=13 May 2013}} 48. ^{{cite web |title=Repite la mayoría absoluta: Castilla–La Mancha, Baleares, Castilla y León, Región de Murcia y La Rioja |url=http://www.larazon.es/espana/repite-la-mayoria-absoluta-castilla-la-mancha-BF2250344 |language=Spanish |work=La Razón |date=13 May 2013}} 49. ^{{cite web|title=El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón) |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304052841/http://www.electometro.es/2013/05/el-pp-ganaria-en-la-mayoria-de-las-autonomias-la-razon/ |language=Spanish |work=Electómetro |date=13 May 2013}} 50. ^{{cite web |title=Cospedal aumentaría su mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha |url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/2013/05/31/030.html |language=Spanish |work=ABC |date=31 May 2013}} 51. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/CASTILLA_LA_MANCHA_2015_Resultados.pdf |title=Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results, 24 May 2015 |date=15 June 2015 |language=Spanish |website=juntaelectoralcentral.es |publisher=Electoral Commission of Castilla–La Mancha |accessdate=29 September 2017}} 52. ^{{cite web |url=https://www.cortesclm.es/web2/paginas/eleccionIX.php |title=IX Legislature. Regional election, 24 May 2015 |language=Spanish |website=cortesclm.es |publisher=Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha |accessdate=29 September 2017}} 53. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.historiaelectoral.com/acmancha.html |title=Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha elections since 1983 |language=Spanish |website=historiaelectoral.com |publisher=Electoral History |accessdate=29 September 2017}}
4 : 2015 in Castilla–La Mancha|2015 regional elections in Spain|Elections in Castilla–La Mancha|May 2015 events in Europe |
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