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词条 2019 European Parliament election
释义

  1. New law

  2. Parties and candidates

     European People's Party   Party of European Socialists    European Conservatives and Reformists   European Green Party   Alliance of Liberals and Democrats    Party of the European Left    New parties  

  3. Apportionment of seats

  4. Seat projections

  5. References

  6. External links

{{use dmy dates|date=March 2017}}{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2019 European Parliament election
| country = European Union
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = yes
| previous_election = 2014 European Parliament election
| previous_year = 2014
| previous_mps = List of members of the European Parliament, 2014–19
| next_election = 2024 European Parliament election
| next_year = 2024
| elected_members =
| election_date = 23–26 May 2019[1][2]
| seats_for_election = All 705 or 751 seats to the European Parliament
| majority_seats = 353 or 376
| image1 =
| leader1 = Manfred Weber
| alliance1 = EPP
| leaders_seat1 = Germany
| running_mate1 =
| last_election1 = 221 seats
| seats_before1 = 217
| seats1 =
| seat_change1 =
| color1 = 3399FF
| popular_vote1 =
| percentage1 =
| swing1 =
| image2 =
| leader2 = Frans Timmermans
| alliance2 = Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
| leaders_seat2 = Netherlands
| running_mate2 =
| last_election2 = 191 seats
| seats_before2 = 187
| seats2 =
| seat_change2 =
| color2 = F0001C
| popular_vote2 =
| percentage2 =
| swing2 =
| image3 =
| leader3 = Jan Zahradil
| alliance3 = European Conservatives and Reformists
| leaders_seat3 = Czech Republic
| running_mate3 =
| last_election3 = 70 seats
| seats_before3 = 76
| former_group_leader3 =
| seats3 =
| seat_change3 =
| color3 = 0054A5
| percentage3 =
| swing3 =
| image4 =
| leader4 = Guy Verhofstadt
| alliance4 = ALDE
| leaders_seat4 = Belgium (Dutch-speaking college)
| running_mate4 =
| last_election4 = 67 seats
| seats_before4 = 68
| seats4 =
| seat_change4 =
| color4 = FFD700
| popular_vote4 =
| percentage4 =
| swing4 =
| image5 =
| leader5 = Violeta Tomić
Nico Cué
| alliance5 = European United Left–Nordic Green Left
| leaders_seat5 = Slovenia
Belgium (French-speaking college)
| running_mate5 =
| last_election5 = 52 seats
| seats_before5 = 52
| seats5 =
| seat_change5 =
| color5 = 8B0000
| popular_vote5 =
| percentage5 =
| swing5 =
| image6 =
| leader6 = Bas Eickhout
Ska Keller
| alliance6 = Greens–European Free Alliance
| leaders_seat6 = Netherlands
Germany
| running_mate6 =
| last_election6 = 50 seats
| seats_before6 = 52
| seats6 =
| seat_change6 =
| color6 = 32CD32
| popular_vote6 =
| percentage6 =
| swing6 =
| image7 =
| leader7 = Nigel Farage[3]
| leaders_seat7 = South East England
| alliance7 = Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy
| running_mate7 =
| last_election7 = 48 seats
| seats_before7 = 41
| seats7 =
| color7 = 24B9B9
| seat_change7 =
| popular_vote7 =
| percentage7 =
| swing7 =
| image8 =
| leader8 = Nicolas Bay
Marcel de Graaff
| alliance8 = ENF
| leaders_seat8 = North West France
Netherlands
| running_mate8 =
| last_election8 = N/A
| seats_before8 = 37
| seats8 =
| color8 = 000022
| seat_change8 =
| popular_vote8 =
| percentage8 =
| swing8 =
| title = President of the European Commission
| posttitle =
| before_election = Jean-Claude Juncker
| before_party = European People's Party
| after_election =
| after_party =
}}{{Politics of the European Union mini}}

The next elections to the European Parliament are expected to be held between 23 and 26 May 2019. A total of 751 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) currently represent more than 512 million people from 28 member states. In February 2018, the European Parliament voted to decrease the number of MEPs from 751 to 705 if the United Kingdom withdraws from the European Union on the current schedule.[4]

New law

According to the European Council, the Council agreed at ambassador level to improve the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act.

The purpose of the reform would be to improve participation in elections, raise understanding of their European character and prevent irregular voting while at the same time respecting the constitutional and electoral traditions of the member states.{{citation needed|date=July 2018}}

A proposed draft would forbid "double voting" and voting in third countries, thus improving the visibility of European political parties.[5]

To avoid double voting, contact authorities would be established to exchange data on voters. This process would have to start at least six weeks before the EP elections.[5]

Parties and candidates

{{see also|Spitzenkandidat}}

The {{lang|de|Spitzenkandidat}} process involves the nomination by European political parties of candidates for the role of Commission President, the party winning the most seats in Parliament receiving the first opportunity to attempt to form a majority in Parliament to back their candidate (akin to how Prime Ministers are elected in national parliamentary democracies). This process was first used in 2014 and was opposed by some in the Council. The future of the process is uncertain, but the Parliament has attempted to codify the process and the parties are almost certain to select the candidates again.[6] On 23 January 2018, the Constitutional Affairs Committee adopted a text stating that the {{lang|de|Spitzenkandidat}} process could not be overturned, and that Parliament "will be ready to reject any candidate in the investiture procedure of the commission president who was not appointed as a {{lang|de|Spitzenkandidat}} in the run-up to the European elections".[7]

In May 2018, a Eurobarometer poll suggested that 49% of the 27,601 individuals from all 28 EU countries surveyed think that the {{lang|de|Spitzenkandidat}}s process will help them vote in the next European elections while 70% also think that the process requires a "real debate" on European issues.[8]

European People's Party

Incumbent Jean-Claude Juncker has stated he will not seek a second term as President.[9]

Two candidates sought the nomination of the EPP:

  • Alexander Stubb, the Vice-President of the European Investment Bank, former prime minister, foreign minister and finance minister of Finland.[10]
  • Manfred Weber, current group leader for the European People's Party in the European Parliament and member of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria has been backed by Angela Merkel as {{lang|de|Spitzenkandidat}} for the party[11]

At their 2018 Congress in Helsinki, the EPP elected Manfred Weber as their {{lang|de|Spitzenkandidat}} for President of the European Commission.[12]

Party of European Socialists

Previous candidate Martin Schulz left the European Parliament in 2017 to head the Social Democratic Party of Germany, but has stepped down from the latter position in 2018.

Two candidates were nominated by PES member parties and organizations:

  • Maroš Šefčovič (Vice-President of the Commission) announced in September bid to head Commission.[13]
  • Frans Timmermans (first Vice-President of the Commission, previous Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister) announced in October bid to head Commission.[14]

Šefčovič announced his withdrawal in November and supported Frans Timmermans as the Common Candidate.[15]

The party will convene an extraordinary Congress in Lisbon to ratify the election of the candidate and to vote upon the manifesto.

European Conservatives and Reformists

Jan Zahradil, an MEP for the Czech Civic Democratic Party, is the {{lang|de|Spitzenkandidat}} of the European Conservatives and Reformists.

European Green Party

Like in 2014, the Greens adopted the principle to have two leading candidates for the European Elections 2019.[16] Unlike in 2014 where the candidates were chosen through an open online primary elections, the two leading candidates will be elected by the Council of the Party in Berlin in November 2018.[17] Four people, two of them being currently MEPs, have declared their candidacy:[17]

  • Petra De Sutter (Senator and member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and candidate of Groen in the 2019 elections)
  • Ska Keller (MEP and candidate of Alliance 90/The Greens in the 2019 elections).
  • Bas Eickhout (MEP and candidate of GroenLinks in the 2019 elections)
  • Atanas Schmidt (nominated by Zelena Partija, Bulgaria)

At their 2018 Congress in Berlin, the party elected Ska Keller and Bas Eickhout as their {{lang|de|Spitzenkandidat}} for the President of the European Commission.

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats

  • Guy Verhofstadt (President of the ALDE group, MEP and former Prime Minister of Belgium)
  • Sylvie Goulard (Deputy Governor at Banque de France, former French Minister of the Armed Services and MEP).[18]
  • Margrethe Vestager (Commissioner for Competition, previous Danish Minister for Economy and Interior).[18][19][20]
  • Cecilia Malmström (Commissioner for Trade, previous Commissioner for Home Affairs and Swedish Minister for European Affairs).[18]
  • Hans van Baalen (President of the ALDE Party, MEP and previous president of the Liberal International).[21]
  • Emma Bonino (Former European Commissioner for Health and Consumer Protection, former Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs)
  • Violeta Bulc (Commissioner for Transport, former Deputy Prime Minister of Slovenia)

Party of the European Left

The designated candidates are Violeta Tomič from Slovenia and Belgian trade-unionist Nico Cué.[22]

New parties

The year 2019 will see the debut of new parties such as Kukiz'15 and Spring of Poland, Czech Pirate Party of Czech Republic, Alliance and Liberal Initiative of Portugal, USR and PLUS of Romania, LMŠ of Slovenia, Human Shield, Most and Workers' Front of Croatia, L'SNS and Sme Rodina of Slovakia. For the liberals, the biggest hope is that the new La République En Marche! party of French President Emmanuel Macron will choose to join ALDE after the elections.[23][24][25] However, En Marche is expected to be more likely to try to form a new parliamentary group of pro-European centrists who support Macron's plans to reform the European institutions, thus drawing away members from ALDE, EPP and S&D.[30][26] Possible partners for such a project might include Spanish Ciudadanos, Progressive Slovakia and the Hungarian Momentum Movement.[27] While it is likely that En Marche will put together the minimum of 25 MEPs needed to form a group, the requirement to include MEPs from at least seven member states would be more difficult.[27]

The European Spring initiated from the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 will run as a pan-European party alliance with one unified vision for Europe, the European Green New Deal.[28] The most prominent figure is the former Greek minister Yanis Varoufakis, who will run as candidate in the constituency of Germany.

Volt Europa, a pan-European progressive movement, will run in several countries under the same name in the attempt to form its own group.

The leader of the Italian Five Star Movement has expressed a desire to form an anti-establishment faction of their own within the EU.[29]

Pablo Iglesias, Catarina Martins, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and several others have formed an alliance in Maintenant le Peuple opposed to the PEL, but they are likely remain in GUE/NGL.

The Movement is an alliance of right-wing populist parties set up by Steve Bannon with the purpose of contesting the European elections. Participating parties include Lega Nord, People's Party of Belgium and Brothers of Italy, and possibly French National Rally. Originally envisioned as an attempt to unite the right-wing populist parties in Europe, The Movement has so far been snubbed by the Alternative for Germany,[30] the Freedom Party of Austria[31] and the UK Independence Party.[32]

Apportionment of seats

{{see also|Impact of Brexit on the European Union#European Parliament seats}}

If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union before the newly-elected MEPs are seated on 1 July 2019, the numbers of seats will be altered to what is considered by the S&D co-rapporteur Pedro Silva Pereira as "a fairer allocation of seats, finally complying with the Lisbon Treaty and the principle of degressive proportionality".[33]

Apportionment in the European Parliament
Country20072009Dec.

2011[34]

July
2013		2014Proposals for 2019 after the
removal of UK seats[35][36]
Cambridge CompromiseDecision
(Feb 2018)		Change
from 2014
Minimising
Gini		Minimising
malapportionment
{{flag|Germany|size=15px 99 99 99 99 96 96 9696 {{nochange}}
{{flag|France|size=15px 78 72 74 74 74 79 9679 {{up}} 5
{{flag|United Kingdom|size=15px 78 72 73 73 73 – – – {{down}} 73
{{flag|Italy|size=15px 78 72 73 73 73 73 8976 {{up}} 3
{{flag|Spain|size=15px 54 50 54 54 54 57 7059 {{up}} 5
{{flag|Poland|size=15px 54 50 51 51 51 47 5852 {{up}} 1
{{flag|Romania|size=15px 35 33 33 33 32 27 3333 {{up}} 1
{{flag|Netherlands|size=15px 27 25 26 26 26 24 2929 {{up}} 3
{{flag|Belgium|size=15px 24 22 22 22 21 18 2121 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Czech Republic|size=15px 24 22 22 22 21 17 2021 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Greece|size=15px 24 22 22 22 21 17 2021 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Hungary|size=15px 24 22 22 22 21 16 1921 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Portugal|size=15px 24 22 22 22 21 17 2021 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Sweden|size=15px 19 18 20 20 20 16 1921 {{up}} 1
{{flag|Austria|size=15px 18 17 19 19 18 15 1819 {{up}} 1
{{flag|Bulgaria|size=15px 18 17 18 18 17 13 1517 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Denmark|size=15px 14 13 13 13 13 12 1314 {{up}} 1
{{flag|Finland|size=15px 14 13 13 13 13 12 1314 {{up}} 1
{{flag|Slovakia|size=15px 14 13 13 13 13 12 1314 {{up}} 1
{{flag|Ireland|size=15px 13 12 12 12 11 11 1213 {{up}} 2
{{flag|Croatia|size=15px – – – 12 11 10 1112 {{up}} 1
{{flag|Lithuania|size=15px 13 12 12 12 11 9 911 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Latvia|size=15px 9 8 9 9 8 8 88 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Slovenia|size=15px 7 7 8 8 8 8 88 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Estonia|size=15px 6 6 6 6 6 7 77 {{up}} 1
{{flag|Cyprus|size=15px 6 6 6 6 6 6 76 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Luxembourg|size=15px 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 {{nochange}}
{{flag|Malta|size=15px 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 {{nochange}}
Total 785 736 754 766 751 639 736 705 {{down 46
{{main|Apportionment in the European Parliament}}

Decisions on the apportionment of seats in the Parliament are governed by article 14 of the Treaty of Lisbon. This article lays down that "[t]he European Parliament shall be composed of representatives of the Union's citizens. They shall not exceed seven hundred and fifty in number, plus the President. Representation of citizens shall be degressively proportional, with a minimum threshold of six members per Member State. No Member State shall be allocated more than ninety-six seats".

Due to the Brexit process, the United Kingdom's 73 MEPs are expected to be removed a few months before the 2019 European Parliament election. In April 2017, a group of European lawmakers discussed what should be done about the vacated seats. One plan, supported by Enrico Letta, Gianni Pittella and Emmanuel Macron, was to replace the 73 seats with a pan-European constituency list. Other options which were considered include dropping the British seats without replacement and reassigning some or all of the existing seats from other countries to reduce inequality of representation.[35]

A plan to reduce the number of seats to 705 was approved by the Parliament in February 2018. It involves redistributing 27 seats to under-represented members and reserving the remaining 46 for future EU expansions. A proposal by the Constitutional Affairs Committee to create a pan-member constituency was rejected by the Parliament at the same time.[4]

In January 2018, the French government unveiled a bill which would switch the country from using regional constituencies to a single nationwide constituency.[37]

The allocation of seats for Ireland increased from 11 to 13. There had been a proposal that the two additional seats be allocated to Irish citizens living in Northern Ireland. This was supported by Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and also by Guy Verhofstadt, but was strongly resisted by the Democratic Unionist Party.[38] Danuta Hübner (Committee on Constitutional Affairs) said: "It is amazing what you are saying because it is the Republic of Ireland which is against this idea of giving the right to vote to nationals in third countries – so we have a problem here".[38] The two additional seats were instead allocated to two of the three constituencies in Ireland, with a special provision that the last candidate elected in these constituencies be designated to account for circumstances where the United Kingdom had not left the European Union at the time of the sitting of the Parliament.

Seat projections

{{Update section|date=March 2019}}

Some observers{{Who|date=June 2018}} consider that the European People's Party might remain the dominant political force in the chamber while populists might be stronger than they were.[39] However, Eurosceptics could be the first force in the chamber according to Charles de Marcilly[39] whilst centrist parties such as European People's Party and the continent's Socialists could decline.[40]

The magazine of the Young European Federalists publishes prognoses based on national polls for the upcoming European parliament if there was an election held today.

Opinion polls by vote share
InstituteDate EPP S&D ECR ALDE Greens/EFA GUE/NGL EFDD ENF NIOthersOthers far-right (new+NI)Others far-left (new+NI)Others moderate (new+NI)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[41] 2019-04-0327.13% 18.61% 6.11% 10.37 %
(no En Marche)		 7.24% 6.96% 3.69% 8.24% → → 5.25% 0.28% 6.25%
(3.1% for En Marche)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[42] 2019-03-1525.99% 19.03% 5.68% 10.37 %
(no En Marche)		 6.53% 6.96% 4.55% 8.52% → → 5.39% 0.42% 5.40%
(2.97% for En Marche)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[43] 2019-02-2426.28% 19.74% 6.53% 9.66%
(no En Marche)		 6.11% 7.10% 4.83% 8.38% → → 5.68% 0.42% 6.68%
(2.97% for En Marche)
Wahlkreisprognose[44] 2018-12-2721.4% 17.8% 5.9% 12.7% 7.0% 7.5% 8.2% 9.2% → 9.3%–––
Europe Elects[45] 2018-12-0521.6% 17.9% 5.7% 13.1% 7.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.6% 1.0% 8.3%–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[46] 2018-11-2926.42% 19.89% 6.11% 10.8%
(no En Marche)		 5.97% 7.95% 4.97% 7.95% → → 5.11% 0.42% 4.55%
(2.5% for En Marche)
Europe Elects[47] 2018-11-1120.8% 17.6% 5.1% 13.3% 7.0% 8.8% 9.1% 9.6% 1.0% 7.8%–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[48] 2018-10-2826.42% 19.31% 5.97% 10.94%
(no En Marche)		 5.68% 8.24% 5.40% 7.53% → → 5.39% 0.42% 4.83%
(3% for En Marche)
Europe Elects[47] 2018-10-2620.9% 18.4% 5.0% 11.6% 6.4% 8.6% 9.3% 9.1% 1.1% 9.7%–––
Europe Elects[47] 2018-10-1821.5% 18.4% 4.3% 12.0% 6.4% 8.7% 9.5% 9.3% 1.0% 8.9%–––
Europe Elects[49] 2018-10-1421.3% 18.3% 3.9% 12.6% 6.3% 8.6% 9.5% 9.3% 1.0% 9.1%–––
Europe Elects[50] 2018-10-1321.3% 18.4% 3.9% 12.5% 6.3% 8.6% 9.5% 9.3% 1.0% 9.1%–––
Europe Elects[50] 2018-10-1221.3% 18.5% 3.9% 12.5% 6.5% 8.6% 9.6% 9.3% 1.0% 9.1%–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[51] 2018-09-2225.85% 19.74% 6.53% 10.80%
(no En Marche)		 5.11% 8.66% 5.68% 7.39% → → 5.11% 0.42% 4.69%
(3% for En Marche)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[52] 2018-09-1226.6% 20% 6.3% 10.2%
(no En Marche)		 4.7% 8.5% 5.5% 7.4% → → 5.5% 0.6% 4.7%
(3% for En Marche)
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[66] 2018-06-0120% 19.5% 9.5% 12.5% 6% 8% 8.5% 7.5% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[66] 2018-05-01 20.5%21% 10.5% 13% 4.5% 8% 8% 7% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[66] 2018-04-0120.5% 19.5% 10% 14% 4.5% 7.5% 8% 6.5% 1.5% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[66] 2018-03-0721% 20.5% 10% 12.5% 4.5% 7.5% 8.5% 6% 2.5% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[66] 2018-01-30 21%22% 10% 13.5% 5% 7.5% 7.5% 5.5% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[66] 2018-01-01 21%22.5% 10% 12.5% 4.5% 8.5% 7.5% 5.5% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[66] 2017-11-30 21.5%22% 10% 12.5% 4% 8% 7% 6.5% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[66] 2017-11-1421.5%21.5% 9.5% 13% 4% 8% 7% 6% 3% 6%–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[66] 2017-10-06 21%23% 9.5% 12.5% 4.5% 8% 4.5% 7% 3% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[66] 2017-09-14 22.5%23% 9.5% 13% 4.5% 8% 4.5% 6% 3% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[66] 2017-06-14 22.5%24% 8% 12.5% 4% 8% 4% 5.5% 3% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[53] 2017-05-22 22%23% 8.5% 12% 4% 8% 4.5% 6.5% 3% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[54] 2017-03-28 22%23% 8.5% 8% 4% 7.5% 6% 7% 6.5% 7.5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[55] 2017-03-01 21%23.5% 9% 8.5% 4% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6% 6.5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[56] 2017-02-0223% 20.5% 9.5% 8% 4.5% 8% 6% 8.5% 5.5% 6.5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[57] 2017-01-0723.5% 22% 9% 8.5% 4.5% 7.5% 6.5% 9% 3.5% 6.5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[58] 2016-12-0123.5% 22.5% 9% 8.5% 4.5% 7.5% 6.5% 8.5% 3.5% 6% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[59] 2016-10-3123% 21% 9% 8% 5% 8% 7% 9% 3% 7% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[60] 2016-10-0124% 22% 9% 9% 4% 8% 7% 9% 3% 5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[61] 2016-09-0125% 24% 10% 12% 4% 8% 5% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[62] 2016-08-1326% 24% 10% 11% 4% 8% 5% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[63] 2016-07-1327% 25% 9% 12% 4% 7% 5% 8% ? – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[64] 2016-06-2324%24% 10% 12% 4% 8% 6% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[65] 2016-06-0125% 23% 10% 11% 5% 8% 6% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[66] 2016-05-2225% 24% 10% 11% 4% 8% 6% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[67] 2016-05-0225% 24% 9% 12% 4% 9% 7% 7% ? – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[68] 2016-04-0227% 24% 11% 12% 4% 8% 5% 6% ? – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[69] 2016-03-0125% 24% 11% 13% 4% 9% 5% 6% ? – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[70] 2016-02-0225%25% 11% 11% 4% 9% 5% 7% 3% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[71] 2016-01-0426% 25% 10% 13% 4% 9% 5% 6% 2% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[72] 2015-12-0226% 25% 12% 11% 5% 8% 5% 6% 2% – – – –
Europe Elects/thenewfederalist.eu[73] 2015-11-17 26%27% 12% 10% 4% 8% 5% 6% 2% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[74] 2015-11-01 26%27% 12% 10% 4% 8% 5% 6% 2% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[75] 2015-10-0126%26% 10% 11% 4% 9% 5% 6% 3% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[76] 2015-09-0127% 26% 11% 10% 5% 9% 4% 5% 3% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[77] 2015-08-0627% 26% 10% 9% 5% 10% 4% 5% 3% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[78] 2015-07-0327% 26% 11% 9% 5% 9% 4% 5% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[79] 2015-06-1627% 25% 10% 10.5% 5% 9% 4% 5.5% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[80] 2015-06-0227% 26% 11% 9% 4% 9% 5% – 9% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[81] 2015-05-0529% 26% 9% 10% 4% 10% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[82] 2015-04-0329% 27% 10% 9% 4% 9% 4% – 8% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[83] 2015-03-1229% 27% 10% 9% 4% 10% 4% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[84] 2015-01-3029% 27% 9% 10% 4% 9% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[84] 2014-12-3029% 27% 10% 9% 4% 10% 4% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[84] 2014-11-3029% 27% 10% 10% 5% 9% 4% – 6% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[84] 2014-10-3029% 26% 9% 10% 5% 9% 4% – 8% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[84] 2014-09-3029% 26% 9% 10% 5% 9% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[84] 2014-08-30 27%28% 9% 10% 5% 9% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[84] 2014-07-3028% 26% 10% 10% 6% 8% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[84] 2014-06-3029% 26% 9% 10% 6% 8% 5% – 7% – – – –
European election 2014 2014-05-2529.2 % 25.4 % 9.1 % 8.9 % 6.8 % 6.7 % 6.4 % – 7.1 % – – – –

Some websites give prognoses in seats. The values of the ENF member parties before the constitution of the group in June 2015 are indicated in brackets. Since the United Kingdom notified its intention to leave the European Union in March 2017, the United Kingdom is excluded from some projections for the composition of the European Parliament.

Opinion polls by number of seats
InstituteDate EPP S&D ECR ALDE Greens–EFA GUE-NGL EFDD ENF NIOthers far-right (new+NI)Others far-left (new+NI)Others moderate (new+NI)
EU19.EU[85] 2019-04-05193 140 60 99 48 48 19
(only M5S)		 75 23–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[86] 2019-04-03191 131 43 73
(no En Marche)		 51 49 26 58 →37244
(22 from En Marche)
European Parliament[87] 2019-03-29188 142 43 72(no En Marche) 51 49 30 61 37––22
(only En Marche)
EU19.EU[88] 2019-03-29187 145 61 99 47 50 22
(only M5S)		 74 20–––
EU19.EU[89] 2019-03-27184 146 59 102 45 49 22
(only M5S)		 78 20–––
Europe Elects[90] 2019-03-25177 135 64 105 46 53 40 62 12+11–––
EU19.EU[91] 2019-03-21180 135 67 102 50 48 23
(only M5S)		 81 19–––
EU19.EU[92] 2019-03-18181 135 65 101 50 48 24
(only M5S)		 82 19–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[93] 2019-03-15183 134 40 73
(no En Marche)		 46 49 32 60 →38347
(21 from En Marche)
election.de[94] 2019-03-15175
(no Fidesz)		 132 59 98 57 53 61
(12 from Fidesz)		 62 8 – – –
EU19.EU[95] 2019-03-14178 143 58 101 47 51 24
(only M5S)		 83 20–––
EU19.EU[96] 2019-03-06186 142 60 94 48 49 25
(only M5S)		 81 20–––
EU19.EU[97] 2019-03-04185 141 59 94 47 52 25
(only M5S)		 83 19–––
EU19.EU[98] 2019-03-01182 138 59 97 47 53 26
(only M5S)		 83 20–––
European Parliament[99] 2019-02181 135 46 75 49 47 39 59 74–––
EU19.EU[100] 2019-02-26173 144 59 99 50 51 26
(only M5S)		 82 21–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[101] 2019-02-24185 139 46 68
(no En Marche)		 43 50 34 59 →40338
(21 from En Marche)
EU19.EU[102] 2019-02-21170 141 62 104 48 50 23
(only M5S)		 84 23–––
EU19.EU[103] 2019-02-20168 143 63 106 48 49 24
(only M5S)		 83 23–––
Eurobarometer[104] 2019-02-18183 135 51 75
(no En Marche)		 45 46 43 59 22+58–––
EU19.EU[105] 2019-02-16167 143 63 104 47 47 25
(only M5S)		 85 24–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[106] 2019-02-03191 138 56 68
(no En Marche)		 45 52 35 56 →39336
(21 from En Marche)
European Parliament[99] 2019-01186 129 43 77 46 45 34 60 85–––
Europe Elects[107] ("United Right Scenario") 2019-01-30191 129 – 98 47 56 – 132 12+40–––
Europe Elects[108] ("EFDD breaks apart scenario") 2019-01-30177 129 93 98 47 56 – 77 12+16–––
Europe Elects[109] 2019-01-13177 129 62 98 47 56 46 62 12+16–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[110] 2019-01-08181 130 58 90 49 57 14 63 11+52–––
European Parliament[99] 2018-12185 131 45 78 42 49 46 62 67–––
Europe Elects[111] 2018-12-05178 133 53 96 43 58 47 61 13+21–––
European Parliament[99] 2018-11181 140 43 78 46 50 45 59 63–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[112] 2018-11-29186 140 43 76
(no En Marche)		 42 56 35 56 →36332
(18 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[113] 2018-11-11172 136 54 98 45 60 48 61 10+21–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[114] 2018-10-28186 136 42 77
(no En Marche)		 40 58 38 53 →38334
(21 from En Marche)
Instituto Cattaneo[115] 2018-10-09180 139 54 93 45 63 55 63 13–––
Europe Elects[116] 2018-10-09177 134 50 98 40 61 50 61 9+25–––
Politico Europe[117] 2018-10-08178 137 48 83
(21 En Marche)		 40 58 53 59 6+33–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[118] 2018-09-22182 139 46 76
(no En Marche)		 36 61 40 52 → 36 3 33
(21 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[119] 2018-09-20181 134 49 100 37 61 49 57 11+26–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[120] 2018-09-19178 140 50 95 42 60 21 59 10+50–––
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[52] 2018-09-12187 141 44 72
(no En Marche)		 33 60 39 52 → 39 433
(21 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[121] 2018-08-10179 137 50 104 36 60 49 55 10+25–––
Thomson Reuters[122] 2018-07-28180 154 42 104 34 56 59 63 13–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("dynamic scenario")[123] 2018-07-25177 145 90 56 (En Marche)
53 (ALDE)		 38 58 – 78 10–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("baseline scenario")[123] 2018-07-25177 145 50 102 38 57 22 56 10+48–––
www.thenewfederalist.eu/Europe Elects[124] 2018-07-06185 141 44 110 34 58 49 52 9+23–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("dynamic scenario")[125] 2018-05-29178 138 84 57 (En Marche)
50 (ALDE)		 37 56 – 66 12–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("baseline scenario")[125] 2018-05-29178 137 43 103 37 55 23 46 12+44–––
treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[126] 2018-05-18179 141 42 112 32 61 58 47 12+21–––
treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[127] 2018-04-17180 143 42 112 33 60 58 46 9+22–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[128] 2018-04-03180 137 41 104 33 58 23 44 12+46–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[129] 2018-02-05179 142 47 102 33 65 42 41 27–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[130] 2017-12-13196 142 45 109 30 56 37 36 27–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[131] 2017-10-16192 150 45 106 28 55 38 37 27–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[132] 2017-08-21196 149 42 108 24 57 29 44 29–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[133] 2017-06-27201 155 38 109 23 55 28 42 27–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[171] 2017-05-02198 170 35 82 28 46 27 59 33–––
New allocation of seats without the United Kingdom approved
Der (europäische) Föderalist[171] 2017-05-02198 186 68 88 35 47 36 59 34–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[134] 2017-03-28181181 74 75 29 58 40 48 51–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[135] 2017-03-06191 182 69 80 35 50 48 60 36–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[136] 2017-03-01 174185 81 85 31 54 42 51 48–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[135] 2017-01-16191 180 63 82 40 48 48 68 31–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2017-01-07189 170 71 82 28 63 38 60 49–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2016-12-01195 176 72 81 35 57 38 57 42–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[135] 2016-11-14194 182 65 91 38 48 47 61 25–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[59] 2016-10-31191 171 73 75 30 71 41 61 38–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[60] 2016-10-01194 179 71 82 31 57 42 64 31–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[135] 2016-09-13189 181 62 91 38 47 53 63 27–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[62] 2016-09-01189 176 74 86 32 59 40 54 32–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[62] 2016-08-13191 184 72 86 32 60 40 58 21–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[138] 2016-07-28192 185 59 90 39 48 54 61 13–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[63] 2016-07-13202 187 67 92 31 57 36 58 21–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[139] 2016-06-23183 179 74 88 32 61 46 61 27–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[65] 2016-06-01186 177 76 83 35 59 63 45 27–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[140] 2016-05-25187 174 63 85 40 55 51 70 12–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[141] 2016-05-02187 178 69 89 27 66 56 49 23–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[142] 2016-04-07192 179 72 85 37 52 50 53 31–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[68] 2016-04-02205 177 84 87 30 58 37 48 25–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[69] 2016-03-01186 183 81 99 27 65 37 48 25–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[142] 2016-02-07196 183 70 82 34 51 51 55 29–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[143] 2016-02-02191 186 86 79 27 69 39 51 23–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[71] 2016-01-04194 187 76 95 28 66 37 48 20–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[144] 2015-12-14192 185 68 87 33 52 52 53 29–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[72] 2015-12-02197 186 91 82 33 61 37 47 17–––
thenewfederalist.eu[73] 2015-11-17 196201 88 76 31 62 42 42 13–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[74] 2015-11-01 197203 88 75 31 61 42 42 12–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[145] 2015-10-17204 193 66 75 33 51 51 54 24–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[146] 2015-08-21204 190 70 74 35 56 47 49 26–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[78] 2015-07-03206 193 80 68 36 69 30 39 30–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[147] 2015-06-30205 188 69 73 34 61 43 47 31–––
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[81] 2015-05-05218 196 71 75 31 74 34 – 52–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[148] 2015-05-03205 193 62 80 32 60 44 (51) 24–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[149] 2015-03-10216 196 60 77 31 60 43 (49) 19–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[150] 2015-01-12212 190 59 70 40 65 47 (43) 25–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[151] 2014-11-18212 195 59 69 42 60 47 (43) 24–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[152] 2014-09-23223 196 61 67 39 53 47 (40) 25–––
Der (europäische) Föderalist[135] 2014-07-28215 191 66 75 47 56 44 (40) 17–––
European election 2014 2014-05-25221 191 70 67 50 52 48 (37) 15–––

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140. ^{{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2016/05/europawahl-umfragen-mai-2016.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Mai 2016): EVP und S&D in freiem Fall |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date=2016-05-25 |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
141. ^{{cite web|author=Tobias Gerhard Schminke |url=https://www.treffpunkteuropa.de/nach-brusseler-anschlagen-rechtspopulismus-in-europa-erreicht-umfragehoch?var_mode=calcul |title=Nach Brüsseler Anschlägen: Rechtspopulismus in Europa erreicht Umfragehoch – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch |publisher=treffpunkteuropa.de |date= |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
142. ^1 {{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2016/02/europawahl-umfragen-februar-2016.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Februar 2016): Rechte weiter im Höhenflug, Sozialdemokraten auf neuem Tiefststand |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date=2016-02-07 |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
143. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.treffpunkteuropa.de/nach-koln-ubergriffen-le-pen-allianz-erstmals-bei-7-prozent?var_mode=preview |title=Le Taurillon, magazine eurocitoyen |publisher=Treffpunkteuropa.de |date= |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
144. ^{{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2015/12/europawahl-umfragen-dezember-2015.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Dezember 2015): Große Koalition verliert, ALDE gewinnt |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date=2015-12-14 |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
145. ^{{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2015/10/europawahl-umfragen-oktober-2015.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Oktober 2015): Rechtes Rekordhoch in der Flüchtlingskrise |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date= |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
146. ^{{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2015/08/europawahl-umfragen-august-2015.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (August 2015): Umfragen in der Sommerpause |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date= |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
147. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2015/07/europawahl-umfragen-juni-2015.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (Juni 2015) |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date= |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
148. ^{{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2015/05/europawahl-umfragen-mai-2015.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (Mai 2015) |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date= |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
149. ^{{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2015/03/wenn-am-nachsten-sonntag-europawahl.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (März 2015) |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date= |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
150. ^{{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2015/01/wenn-am-nachsten-sonntag-europawahl.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (Januar 2015) |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date= |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
151. ^{{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2014/11/wenn-am-nachsten-sonntag-europawahl.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (November 2014) |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date=2014-11-18 |accessdate=2016-11-29}}
152. ^{{cite web|author=Manuel Müller |url=http://www.foederalist.eu/2014/09/wenn-am-nachsten-sonntag-europawahl.html |title=Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (September 2014) |publisher=Foederalist.eu |date=2014-09-23 |accessdate=2016-11-29}}

External links

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{{Commons category-inline|European Parliament election, 2019}}{{European Parliament elections}}

3 : 2019 elections in Europe|European Parliament elections|2019 European Parliament election
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