词条 | Australian east coast low |
释义 |
Prior to the introduction of satellite imagery in the early 1960s, many east coast lows were classified as tropical cyclones. These storms which mostly affect the south east coast should not be confused with Australian region tropical cyclones which typically affect the northern half of the continent.[7] CharacterisationExplosive cyclogenesis is seen on average just once per year, but these storms cause significant wind and flood damage when they occur.[4] Australian east coast cyclones vary in size from mesoscale (approximately {{convert|10|-|100|km|mi|0|abbr=on}}) to synoptic scale (approximately {{convert|100|-|1000|km|mi|0|abbr=on}}).[8][9]Australian east coast cyclones, although variable in size and intensity, are typically characterised by widespread heavy rainfall.[9] These storms usually occur along the subtropical east coast of Australia from Gladstone in Queensland to the Victoria/New South Wales border, and often affect large populated cities such as Sydney and Brisbane, between which over one-third of the Australian population resides.[9] Rain associated damages attributed to east coast cyclones are estimated in millions to tens of million dollars annually and are a major contributor to the total weather-associated insurance losses for all of Australia.[9] Seven per cent of all major Australian disasters since 1967 can be directly attributed to east coast cyclones.[9] Australian east coast lows often intensify rapidly overnight making them one of the more dangerous weather systems to affect the New South Wales coast.[6] PatternThe incidence of these types of storms can be seen to fluctuate quite widely from one year to the next, with none in some years and the highest incidence being twelve in 1978/79.[7] Another feature of east coast low development is the tendency for clustering of events when conditions remain favourable. For example, near Brisbane, almost one third of events occur within 20 days of a preceding event.[7] Correlations of east coast cyclones with the interannual differences of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) indicate a strong preference for these storms to form just after a large swing from negative to positive Southern Oscillation index values and especially between swings from negative SOI the year before and positive SOI the year after. This suggests a preference for formation of east coast cyclones between extreme events of the Southern Oscillation Index.[9] Examples
See also{{Portal|Australia|Weather}}
References1. ^1 2 3 4 {{cite journal|last=Leslie|first=Lance M.|author2=Speer, Milton S.|title=Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Australian East Coast Cyclogenesis|journal=Weather and Forecasting|year=1998|volume=13|issue=3|pages=822–832|doi=10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0822:SREFOE>2.0.CO;2|bibcode = 1998WtFor..13..822L }} 2. ^{{cite journal|last=Dowdy|first=Andrew J.|author2=Graham A. Mills|author3=Bertrand Timbal|author4=Yang Wang|title=Changes in the Risk of Extratropical Cyclones in Eastern Australia|journal=Journal of Climate|date=February 2013|volume=26|issue=4|pages=1403–1417|doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00192.1|url=http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00192.1|accessdate=7 April 2013|bibcode=2013JCli...26.1403D}} 3. ^1 {{cite book|last=Dowdy|first=Andrew J.|title=CAWCR technical report; 37|year=2011|publisher=CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology|isbn=978-1-921826-36-8|url=http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_037.pdf|first2=Graham A.|last2=Mills|first3=Bertrand|last3=Timbal|editor=Day K. A.|accessdate=7 April 2013|chapter=Large-scale indicators of Australian East Coast Lows and associated extreme weather events|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130411044703/http://cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_037.pdf|archive-date=11 April 2013|dead-url=yes|df=dmy-all}} 4. ^1 2 {{cite journal|last=Holland|first=Greg J.|author2=Lynch, Amanda H.|author3= Leslie, Lance M.|title=Australian East-Coast Cyclones. Part I: Synoptic Overview and Case Study|journal=Monthly Weather Review|year=1987|volume=115|issue=12|pages=3024–3036|doi=10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<3024:AECCPI>2.0.CO;2|bibcode = 1987MWRv..115.3024H }} 5. ^1 {{cite journal|last=Lim |first=Eun-Pa |author2=Simmonds, Ian |title=Explosive Cyclone Development in the Southern Hemisphere and a Comparison with Northern Hemisphere Events |journal=Monthly Weather Review |year=2002 |volume=130 |issue=9 |pages=2188–2209 |doi=10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2188:ECDITS>2.0.CO;2 |url=http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/elim/pdf.dir/Lim_Simmonds2002.pdf |accessdate=21 March 2013 |bibcode=2002MWRv..130.2188L |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20130419061032/http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/elim/pdf.dir/Lim_Simmonds2002.pdf |archivedate=19 April 2013 }} 6. ^1 {{cite web|title=About East Coast Lows|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/sevwx/facts/ecl.shtml|publisher=Bureau of Meteorology|accessdate=6 April 2013}} 7. ^1 2 {{cite book|last=Harper|first=Bruce|title=Natural hazards and the risks they pose to South-East Queensland|year=2000|publisher=Australian Geological Survey Organisation in conjunction with Bureau of Meteorology|isbn=0642467080|url=http://www.ga.gov.au/image_cache/GA4206.pdf|author2=Ken Granger|editor=K. Granger & M. Hayne|accessdate=7 April 2013|chapter=Chapter 5: East coast low risks}} 8. ^1 2 3 4 {{cite web|title=Australian East Coast Storm 2007: Impact of East Coast Lows|url=http://www.guycarp.com/portal/extranet/insights/reportsPDF/2007/Australian%20East%20Coast%20Storm%20Report%202007.pdf;JSESSIONIDGCPORTALWCPORTALAPP=SnxFRhyT61F516ykRxppJk2fpTnb44CVvrBLN6Phh36jhlJ38vpj!2079543398?vid=1|publisher=Guy Carpenter|accessdate=7 April 2013|date=October 2007}} 9. ^1 2 3 4 5 {{cite journal|last=Hopkins|first=Linda C.|author2=Holland, Greg J.|title=Australian Heavy-Rain Days and Associated East Coast Cyclones: 1958–92|journal=Journal of Climate|year=1997|volume=10|issue=4|pages=621–635|doi=10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0621:AHRDAA>2.0.CO;2|url=http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%281997%29010%3C0621%3AAHRDAA%3E2.0.CO%3B2|accessdate=7 April 2013|bibcode = 1997JCli...10..621H }} 10. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-04/storm-warning-east-coast-braces-for-flooding-strong-winds-rain/7477244 |title=Weather warning: Heavy rain brings flooding, strong winds and dangerous surf |date=5 June 2016 |publisher=ABC News |accessdate=8 June 2016}} 11. ^{{cite news|title=Sydney homes evacuated as king tide combines with east coast low|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-06/nsw-homes-evacuated-as-king-tide-combines-with-east-coast-low/7479736|accessdate=16 June 2016|work=ABC News|date=5 June 2016|language=en-AU}} 12. ^{{cite news|last1=Higgins|first1=Kate|title=NSW weather: Severe east coast low hitting late in season, meteorologist says|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-25/severe-east-coast-low-hits-late-in-season/6722892|accessdate=26 August 2015|publisher=ABC|date=25 August 2015}} 13. ^{{cite news|last1=Hannam|first1=Peter|title=Sydney weather: City to sit on 'edge' of unusual east coast low|url=http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sydney-weather-city-to-sit-on-edge-of-unusual-east-coast-low-20150824-gj69sd.html|accessdate=26 August 2015|publisher=Sydney Morning Herald|date=24 August 2015}} 14. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=68072&list=ds&of=of_a&ot=ot_a&mm=08&yyyy=2015|title=Nowra daily temperature and rain summaries|publisher=Weatherzone|date=2 September 2015|accessdate=2 September 2015}} 15. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/another-east-coast-low-forecast-for-this-weekend/story-e6frflp0-1227322924734|title=Weather forecast for Sydney and NSW|publisher=News.com.au|date=27 April 2015|accessdate=2 May 2015}} 16. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-01/wet-weather-hits-south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/6436090|title=Queensland weather: Three people killed in car washed off flooded road; storm moves into northern NSW - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)|publisher=Abc.net.au|date=|accessdate=2 May 2015}} 17. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-21/three-killed-in-dungog-as-cyclonic-weather-batters-nsw/6407836|title=NSW wild weather: Three killed, homes washed away in Dungog as 'cyclonic' winds batter Sydney, Hunter and Central Coast - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)|publisher=Abc.net.au|date=21 April 2015|accessdate=2 May 2015}} 18. ^{{cite web|title=Three dead as severe storms hit New South Wales in Australia|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-32390793|publisher=BBC News|accessdate=21 April 2015}} 19. ^{{cite news|last1=Dean|first1=Sarah|title='Cyclonic' conditions and the heaviest rainfall in a century: The vicious 'East Coast Low' wreaking havoc across NSW explained|url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3047925/A-vicious-East-Coast-Low-year-s-weather-phenomenon-WORST-2007-winds-135km-h-200mm-rain-s-expected-three-times-long-usual.html|accessdate=21 April 2015|publisher=Daily Mail|date=21 April 2015}} 20. ^{{cite news|title=East coast low cause of wild NSW weather |url=http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2014/10/15/east-coast-low-cause-of-wild-nsw-weather.html |accessdate=18 October 2014 |publisher=Sky News |date=15 October 2014 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20141018112958/http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2014/10/15/east-coast-low-cause-of-wild-nsw-weather.html |archivedate=18 October 2014 |df=dmy }} 21. ^{{cite news|last1=Hannam|first1=Peter|title='Once every 100 years': what made the Sydney storm so ferocious|url=http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/once-every-100-years-what-made-the-sydney-storm-so-ferocious-20141015-1167eo.html|accessdate=18 October 2014|issue=15 October 2014|publisher=The Sydney Morning Herald}} 22. ^{{cite news|title=Snow, winds and floods — chaos from city to mountains|url=http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/snow-winds-and-floods-chaos-from-city-to-mountains/story-e6frflp0-1227090799100|accessdate=18 October 2014|publisher=news.com.au|date=16 October 2014}} 23. ^{{cite news|last=Guerit|first=Charlie|title=East coast low caused the flooding rains|url=http://www.ulladullatimes.com.au/story/1611180/east-coast-low-caused-the-flooding-rains/?cs=1480|accessdate=7 July 2013|newspaper=Milton Ulladulla Times|date=2 July 2013|deadurl=yes|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304065509/http://www.ulladullatimes.com.au/story/1611180/east-coast-low-caused-the-flooding-rains/?cs=1480|archivedate=4 March 2016|df=dmy-all}} 24. ^{{cite news|title=SES issues flash flooding warning for NSW coast|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-22/ses-warns-about-possibility-of-flash-flooding-along-nsw-coast/4773354|accessdate=7 July 2013|newspaper=ABC News|date=22 June 2013}} 25. ^{{cite book|last=Mills|first=Graham A.|title=CAWCR Technical Report No. 023|year=2010|publisher=The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology|isbn=978-1-921605-77-2|url=http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_023.pdf|author2=Rob Webb|author3=Noel E. Davidson|author4=Jeffrey Kepert|author5=Alan Seed|author6=Deborah Abbs|accessdate=8 April 2013|chapter=The Pasha Bulker east coast low of 8 June 2007|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130411045307/http://cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_023.pdf#|archive-date=11 April 2013|dead-url=yes|df=dmy-all}} 26. ^{{cite web|title=June 2007 East Coast Lows|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/sevwx/facts/events/june-07-ecl/index.shtml|publisher=Bureau of Meteorology|accessdate=6 April 2013}} 27. ^{{cite web|title=Severe weather likely for south-east NSW and eastern Victoria at the weekend|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/nsw/20050708.shtml|publisher=Bureau of Meteorology|accessdate=6 April 2013}} 28. ^{{cite web|title=broken link |url=http://www2.ho.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/nsw/20050323.shtml |publisher=Bureau of Meteorology |accessdate=6 April 2013 }}{{dead link|date=October 2016 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} 29. ^1 2 3 4 {{cite web|title=When were most recent major East Coast Lows?|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/sevwx/facts/ecl.shtml#hist|publisher=Bureau of Meteorology|accessdate=6 April 2013}} 30. ^{{cite news|last1=Erdman|first1=Jon|title=Australia Storm Hammers Sydney, New South Wales; 3 Dead, Hundreds Evacuated as Flooding Washes Away Homes|url=http://www.weather.com/news/news/australia-storm-sydney-new-south-wales-flooding|accessdate=26 April 2015|publisher=The Weather Channel|date=22 April 2015}} External links
7 : Floods in Australia|Floods in New South Wales|Weather events in Australia|Natural disasters in Australia|Extratropical cyclones|Subtropical cyclones|Types of cyclone |
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