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词条 Causal layered analysis
释义

  1. Theory

  2. History of research

  3. See also

  4. References

Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a technique used in strategic planning and futures studies to more effectively shape the future.[1][2] The technique was pioneered by Sohail Inayatullah, a Pakistani-Australian futures studies researcher.[3]

Theory

Causal layered analysis works by identifying many different levels, and attempting to make synchronized changes at all levels to create a coherent new future. Inayatullah's original paper[3] as well as his TEDx talk[4] identify four levels:

  1. The litany: This includes quantitative trends, often exaggerated and used for political purposes. The result could be a feeling of apathy, helplessness, or projected action. Inayatullah calls this "the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear."&91;3&93;
  2. Social causes, including economic, cultural, political, and historical factors.
  3. Structure and the discourse that legitimizes and supports the structure.
  4. Metaphor and myth

History of research

CLA was first introduced explicitly as a futures research technique by Sohail Inayatullah in a 1998 article for Futures that would come to be widely cited.[3] Later, Inayatullah would edit the CLA Reader, that featured chapters from a number of futurists and practitioners describing their experience with CLA.[5][6]

Inayatullah's work on CLA was examined in a book by Jose W. Ramos in 2003.[7]

A 2008 article by Chris Riedy examined the similarities, differences, and possible combinations of CLA and Ken Wilber's integral theory.[8]

A 2010 article by Gary P. Hampson explored the relationship between integral futures and CLA further, and also considered Richard Slaughter's critique of CLA.[9]

Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojevic have published an update in 2015.[10] With various authors, they investigate topics such as:

  • The Global Financial Crisis
  • Terrorism futures
  • Global governance
  • Ageing and the changing workforce
  • Educational and university futures
  • Climate change
  • Water futures in the Muslim world
  • The alternative futures of China
  • Agricultural policy in Australia
  • The new national narrative in Singapore

See also

  • Futures techniques
  • Backcasting

References

1. ^{{cite journal|url=http://www.wfs.org/futurist/january-february-2014-vol-48-no-1/causal-layered-analysis-defined|title = Causal Layered Analysis Defined|last = Inayatullah|first = Sohail|journal = The Futurist|publisher = World Future Society|date = January–February 2014|volume = 48|issue = 1|accessdate = July 2, 2014}}
2. ^{{cite web|url=http://scenariosforsustainability.org/recipes/cla.html|title = Causal Layered Analysis|publisher = Scenarios for Sustainability Recipes|accessdate = July 2, 2014}}
3. ^1 2 3 {{cite journal|title = Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method|doi = 10.1016/S0016-3287(98)00086-X|journal = Futures|volume = 30|issue = 8|date = October 1998|accessdate = July 2, 2014|last = Inayatullah|first = Sohail|pages = 815–829|url = http://proutglobal.info/slideshows/training/Related%20web%20pages/002-Casual_Layered_Analysis.pdf}}
4. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImWDmFPfifI|title = Causal Layered Analysis: Sohail Inayatullah at TEDxNoosa|last = Inayatullah|first = Sohail|date = May 12, 2013|accessdate = July 2, 2014}}
5. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.metafuture.org/Books/causal_layered_analysis_reader.htm|title = The Causal Layered Analysis Reader|publisher = Metafuture.org|accessdate = July 2, 2014}}
6. ^{{cite web|url=http://metafuture.org/cla%20papers/Inayatullah%20%20Causal%20layered%20analysis%20-%20theory,%20historical%20context,%20and%20case%20studies.%20Intro%20chapter%20from%20The%20CLA%20Reader..pdf|title = The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology|accessdate = July 2, 2014}}
7. ^{{cite web|url = http://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/swin:8255|title = From critique to cultural recovery: critical futures studies and casual layered analysis|last = Ramos|first = Jose W.|date = 2003|publisher = Australian Foresight Institute|accessdate = July 2, 2014|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140714133155/http://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/swin:8255#|archive-date = 2014-07-14|dead-url = yes|df = }}
8. ^{{cite journal|title = An Integral extension of causal layered analysis|url=http://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/research/bitstream/handle/10453/9782/2007001241.pdf?sequence=1|last = Riedy|first = Chris|volume = 40|issue = 2|date = March 2008|pages = 150–159|journal = Futures|publisher = Elsevier|doi = 10.1016/j.futures.2007.11.009}}
9. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.metafuture.org/pdf/epistemologicalfutures.pdf#page=53|title = Futures of integral futures: An analysis of Richard Slaughter's analysis of Causal Layered Analysis|journal = Futures|last = Hampson|first = Gary P.|volume = 42|issue = 2|date = March 2010|accessdate = July 2, 2014|doi = 10.1016/j.futures.2009.09.006}}
10. ^{{cite web|url=http://research.usc.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/usc:14860|title=CLA 2.0 Transformative Research in Theory and Practice|date = 2015}}

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