“Comet Swift–Tuttle”的意思、由来-开放百科全书

Chinese records indicate that, in 188, the comet reached apparent magnitude 0.1.^[7] Observation was also recorded in 69 BC, and it was probably visible to the naked eye in 322 BC.^[8] In the discovery year of 1862, the comet was as bright as Polaris.^[4] The comet made a return appearance in 1992, when it was rediscovered by Japanese astronomer Tsuruhiko Kiuchi and became visible with binoculars.^[5] In 2126 it will be a bright naked-eye comet reaching about apparent magnitude 0.7.^[6]

After the 1862 observations it was thought that the comet would return between 1979 and 1983, but it didn't show up. However, it had been suggested in 1902 that this was the same comet as that observed by Ignatius Kegler on July 3, 1737,^[7] and on this basis Brian Marsden calculated that it would return only in 1992, which in fact it did.^[8]

It is the parent body of the Perseid meteor shower, perhaps the best known shower and among the most reliable in performance.^[8]

The comet's perihelion is just under that of Earth, while its aphelion is just over that of Pluto. An unusual aspect of its orbit is that it is captured into a 1:11 orbital resonance with Jupiter; it completes one orbit for every 11 of Jupiter.^[8] In principle this would mean that its proper long-term average period would be 130.48 years. However, it only entered this resonance about 1000 years ago, and will probably exit the resonance in several thousand years.^[8]

Threat to Earth

The comet is on an orbit that makes repeated close approaches to the Earth-Moon system,^[8] and has an Earth-MOID (Minimum orbit intersection distance) of {{convert|0.0009|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=on}}.^[3] Upon its 1992 rediscovery, the comet's date of perihelion passage was off from the then-current prediction by 17 days. It was then noticed that if its next perihelion passage (July 11, 2126) was also off by another 15 days (July 26), the comet would pass perilously close to Earth or the Moon on August 14, 2126 (IAUC 5636: 1992t). Given the size of the nucleus of Swift–Tuttle, this was of some concern. This prompted amateur astronomer and writer Gary W. Kronk to search for previous apparitions of this comet. He found the comet was most likely observed by the Chinese in 69 BC and AD 188, which was quickly confirmed by Brian Marsden.^[9]{{Failed verification|date=August 2018}} This information and subsequent observations have led to recalculation of its orbit, which indicates the comet's orbit is sufficiently stable that there is absolutely no threat over the next two thousand years.^[10] It is now known that the comet will pass {{convert|0.153|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=on}} from Earth on August 5, 2126.^[3] and within {{convert|0.147|AU|km mi|abbr=on}} from Earth on August 24, 2261.^[11]

A close encounter with Earth is predicted for the comet's return to the inner Solar System in the year 3044 with the closest approach estimated to be {{convert|1000000|mi|km AU|spell=in}}.^[12]

Another close encounter is predicted for the year 4479, around Sept. 15; the close approach is estimated to be less than 0.05 AU, with a probability of impact of 1 in a million.^[13] Subsequent to 4479, the orbital evolution of the comet is more difficult to predict; the probability of Earth impact per orbit is estimated as 2{{e|−8}} (0.000002%).^[13] It is the largest Solar System object that makes repeated close approaches to Earth. With a relative velocity of 60 km/s,^[14]^[27] an Earth impact would have an estimated energy of ~27 times that of the Cretaceous–Paleogene impactor.^[15] Comet Swift–Tuttle has been described as "the single most dangerous object known to humanity".^[16]

In 1996, the long-term possibility of Comet Swift–Tuttle impacting Earth was compared to 433 Eros, and they were compared to about 3000 other kilometer sized objects as objects of concern.^[17]

Notes

References

1. ^{{cite web |title=109P/Swift-Tuttle Orbit |url=http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=109P |publisher=Minor Planet Center |accessdate=2014-06-17}}
2. ^{{cite web |date=1999-11-18 |title=109P/Swift–Tuttle (NK 798) |publisher=OAA Computing and Minor Planet Sections |author=Syuichi Nakano |url=http://www.oaa.gr.jp/~oaacs/nk/nk723.htm |accessdate=2011-05-09}}
3. ^¹²³⁴⁵{{cite web |type=last observation: 1995-03-29 |title=JPL Small-Body Database Browser: 109P/Swift–Tuttle |url=http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=109P;cad=1 |publisher=Jet Propulsion Laboratory |accessdate=2011-05-09}}
4. ^[https://books.google.com/books?id=jAr7HMnlPGUC&pg=PA12 David Levy's Guide to Observing Meteor Showers] (pg12)
5. ^{{cite news|url=http://www.space.com/spacewatch/050811_perseid_facts.html|title=Top 10 Perseid Meteor Shower Facts|last=Britt|first=Robert|date=2005-08-11|publisher=Space.com|accessdate=2009-08-10}}
6. ^¹{{cite journal |last1=Yau |first1=K. |last2=Yeomans |first2=D. |last3=Weissman |first3=P. |title=The past and future motion of Comet P/Swift-Tuttle |journal=Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society |volume=266 |pages=305–316 |year=1994 |bibcode=1994MNRAS.266..305Y |doi=10.1093/mnras/266.2.305}}
7. ^{{cite book | title=Cometography |year=1999 |volume=1 |pages=400–2 |author=Gary W. Kronk |chapter=109P/1737 N1}}
8. ^Bedient, John. "AMS Meteor Showers page", American Meteor Society, 20 June 2010. Retrieved 2010-7-31.
9. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.cbat.eps.harvard.edu/iauc/05600/05670.html|title=Periodic Comet Swift–Tuttle (1992t)|last=Kronk|first=Gary|last2=Marsden |first2=Brian G. |year=1992|publisher=Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams|accessdate=2009-06-19}}
10. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.as.wvu.edu/~jel/skywatch/swfttle.html|title=on Swift–Tuttle's possible collision|last=Stephens|first=Sally|year=1993|publisher=Astronomical Society of the Pacific|accessdate=2008-08-25}}
11. ^{{cite web|last1=Yau|first1=Kevin|last2=Paul|first2=Weissman|last3=Yeomans|first3=Donald|title=The past and future motion ofComet P/Swift-Tuttle|url=http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?1994MNRAS.266..305Y&defaultprint=YES&filetype=.pdf|publisher=Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology}}
12. ^https://astrosociety.org/edu/publications/tnl/23/23.html
13. ^¹²³⁴⁵⁶{{cite journal | last = Chambers | first = J. E. | authorlink = | title = The long-term dynamical evolution of Comet Swift–Tuttle | journal = Icarus | volume = 114 | issue = 2| pages = 372–386 | publisher = Academic Press | location = | year = 1995 | bibcode = 1995Icar..114..372C | issn = | doi = 10.1006/icar.1995.1069 | id = }}
14. ^{{Cite book |first=Paul R. |last=Weissman |editor-last=Milani |editor-first=A. |editor2-last=Valsecchi |editor2-first=G.B. |editor3-last=Vokrouhlicky |editor3-first=D. |contribution=The cometary impactor flux at the Earth |title=Near Earth Objects, our Celestial Neighbors: Opportunity and Risk; Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 236, 2006 |year=2007 |pages=441–450 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |contribution-url=http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521863452 |doi=10.1017/S1743921307003559 |archiveurl=https://www.webcitation.org/5j3BlGwaZ |archivedate=2009-08-15 |deadurl=no |accessdate=2009-08-13 |journal=Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union |volume=2}}
15. ^This calculation can be carried out in the manner given by Weissman for Comet Hale–Bopp, as follows: A radius of 13.5 km and an estimated density of 0.6 g/cm³ gives a cometary mass of 6.2{{e|18}} g. An encounter velocity of 60 km/s yields an impact velocity of 61 km/s, giving an impact energy of 1.15{{e|32}} ergs, or 2.75{{e|9}} megatons, about 27.5 times the estimated energy of the K–T impact event.
16. ^¹{{cite book | last = Verschuur | first = Gerrit L. | authorlink = Gerrit Verschuur | title = Impact!: the threat of comets and asteroids | publisher = Oxford University Press | year = 1997 | location = | pages = 256 (see p. 116) | url = https://books.google.com/books?id=4gnumbZdVqEC&printsec=frontcover | doi = | id = | isbn = 978-0-19-511919-0}}
17. ^{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1996/04/25/us/mathematicians-say-asteroid-may-hit-earth-in-a-million-years.html|title=Mathematicians Say Asteroid May Hit Earth in a Million Years|last=Browne|first=Malcolm W.|access-date=2018-11-16|language=en}}

Threat to Earth

Notes

References

External links