| 词条 | ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters |
| 释义 |
The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, simply called the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the economy of Europe issued by the European Central Bank (ECB).[1] HistoryThe ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters was started in 1999.[1][2] In 2007, the ECB published a review of the survey based on eight years of experience.[3] ReceptionAcademic researchThe ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters has been the subject of some academic research, including a 2013 paper considering whether there was a better way of combining the forecasts than simply taking the average. They found some methods of combining that did better than the average, but noted that it was not clear that these methods would continue to beat the average in the future.[4] See also
References1. ^1 {{cite web|url=http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/prices/indic/forecast/html/index.en.html|title = ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters|publisher = European Central Bank|accessdate = April 13, 2014}} 2. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp8.pdf|title = An Introduction to the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters|author = Juan Angel Garcia|date = September 2003|publisher = European Central Bank}} 3. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp59.pdf|title = The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: A Review After Eight Years of Experience|date = April 2007|author = Carlos Bowles|author2 = Roberta Friz|author3 = Veronique Genre|author4 = Geoff Kenny|author5 = Aidan Meyler|author6 = Tuomas Rautanen}} 4. ^{{cite journal|title = Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?|last = Genre|first = Veronique|last2 = Kenny|first2 = Geoff|last3 = Meyler|first3 = Aidan|last4 = Timmermann|first4 = Aidan|doi = 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.06.004|journal = International Journal of Forecasting|publisher = International Institute of Forecasters in collaboration with Elsevier|volume = 29|year = 2013|pages = 108-121}} External links
2 : Economy of Europe|Economic forecasting |
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