| 词条 | Electoral Calculus |
| 释义 |
|name = Electoral Calculus |logo = |logocaption = |screenshot = |collapsible = |collapsetext = |caption = |url = {{URL|electoralcalculus.co.uk}} |slogan = |commercial = No |type = |registration = No |language = English |content license = |owner = Martin Baxter |author = |launch date = |alexa = |revenue = |current status = Online |footnotes = }} Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors but excludes local issues. HistoryThe site was developed by Martin Baxter,[1] who is a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling.[2] Main featuresThe site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has a separate section for elections in Scotland.[3] MethodologyThe site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about Britain's electoral geography,[1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing.[4] It takes account of national polls and trends but excludes local issues.[5] The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model, which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects.[6] The Strong Transition Model was introduced in October 2007, and considers the effects of strong and weak supporters.[7] The models are explained in detail on the web site.[6] ReceptionIt was listed by The Guardian in 2004 as one of the "100 most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions.[8] In 2012 it was described by PhD student Chris Prosser at the University of Oxford as "probably the leading vote/seat predictor on the internet".[9] Its detailed predictions for individual seats have been noted by Paul Evans on the localdemocracy.org.uk blog.[10] Academic Nick Anstead noted in his observations from a 2010 Personal Democracy Forum event, that Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole considered Electoral Calculus to be "massively improved" in comparison with the swingometer.[11] With reference to the 2010 United Kingdom general election, it was cited by journalists Andrew Rawnsley[12] and Michael White[13] in The Guardian. John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election.[14] References1. ^1 {{cite web | url=http://www.intute.ac.uk/cgi-bin/fullrecord.pl?handle=20100408-11403823 | title=Electoral Calculus | publisher=Intute |accessdate=17 October 2011 |quote=An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results.}} 2. ^{{cite web|last=Ruppert|first=Evelyn|title=Data mobilisation and the UK 2010 Election|url=http://www.open.ac.uk/blogs/cresc/?p=17|work=CReSC: The Social Life of Methods|publisher=Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change|date=16 April 2010|accessdate=28 May 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110910073110/http://www.open.ac.uk/blogs/cresc/?p=17|archive-date=10 September 2011|dead-url=yes|df=dmy-all}} 3. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/por/scotland.htm | title=Scottish Government and Politics on the Internet | publisher=Keele University | work=School of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy website | accessdate=6 February 2014}} 4. ^{{cite news|last=Young|first=Toby|title=Who predicted the result correctly?|url=http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100038566/who-predicted-the-result-correctly/|accessdate=25 May 2012|newspaper=The Daily Telegraph|date=7 May 2010}} 5. ^{{cite news | url=http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/MP-s-course-lose-seat/story-15932772-detail/story.html | archive-url=https://archive.is/20130505065719/http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/MP-s-course-lose-seat/story-15932772-detail/story.html | dead-url=yes | archive-date=5 May 2013 | title=MP's on course to lose his seat | work=thisiskent.co.uk | publisher=Northcliffe Media | date=27 April 2012 | accessdate=24 May 2012 }} 6. ^1 {{cite web | url=http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newmodel.html | title=Transition Model |publisher=Electoral Calculus |date=8 July 2004 |accessdate=17 October 2011 |last=Baxter |first=Martin}} 7. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html | title=Strong Transition Model |publisher=Electoral Calculus |date=28 October 2007 |accessdate=17 October 2011 |last=Baxter |first=Martin}} 8. ^{{cite news|title=Cream of the crop|url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2004/dec/16/onlinesupplement.shopping|accessdate=28 May 2012|newspaper=The Guardian|date=16 December 2004}} 9. ^{{cite web|last=Prosser|first=Chris|title=Predicting the next UK general election|url=http://politicsinspires.org/2012/05/predicting-the-next-uk-general-election/|work=Politics in Spires|date=7 May 2012|accessdate=25 May 2012}} 10. ^{{cite web|last=Evans |first=Paul |title=Election websites to watch |url=http://blog.localdemocracy.org.uk/2010/03/30/election-websites-to-watch/ |work=localdemocracy.org.uk |date=30 March 2010 |accessdate=25 May 2012 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20140921111914/http://blog.localdemocracy.org.uk/2010/03/30/election-websites-to-watch/ |archivedate=21 September 2014 |df=dmy }} 11. ^{{cite web|last=Anstead|first=Nick|authorlink=Nick Anstead|title=General Election 2010 – Action Replay (Personal Democracy Forum Event at the Royal Society for the Arts)|url=http://www.nickanstead.com/blog/?p=1886|work=nickanstead.com|date=15 May 2010|accessdate=25 May 2012}} 12. ^{{cite news | url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/nov/22/andrew-rawnsley-general-election-hung-parliament | title=Why it's very likely the next parliament will be doubly hung |work=The Guardian |date=22 November 2009 |accessdate=17 October 2011 |last=Rawnsley |first=Andrew |authorlink=Andrew Rawnsley | location=London | quote=The different formulas used by Electoral Calculus and Swingo both translate a six-point Tory poll lead into a Commons in which the Conservatives are short of a majority.}} 13. ^{{cite news | url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/apr/30/tony-blair-labour-cleggmania-michael-white | title=Tony Blair's back. But it's too late for Labour | work=The Guardian | date=30 April 2010 |accessdate=17 October 2011 |last=White |first=Michael |authorlink=Michael White (journalist) | location=London | quote=How is Cameron 'winning' when Tory share of the vote is – on current measure – about 1% to 1.5% up on 2005 (source Electoral Calculus)?}} 14. ^{{cite news|last=Rentoul|first=John|authorlink=John Rentoul|title=John Rentoul: Clegg drives his voters away|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-clegg-drives-his-voters-away-2108775.html|accessdate=28 May 2012|newspaper=The Independent|date=17 October 2010}} External links
6 : British political websites|Elections in the United Kingdom|Electoral geography|Opinion polling in the United Kingdom|Psephology|Mathematical modeling |
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