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词条 Sectarian violence in Iraq (2006–2008)
释义

  1. Ethno-sectarian composition

  2. Participants

  3. Conflict and tactics

      Non-military targets    Bomb and mortar attacks    Suicide bombings    Death squads    Attacks on places of worship    Sectarian desertions  

  4. Timeline

  5. Growth in refugee flight

  6. Use of "civil war" label

  7. See also

      Films  

  8. References

  9. Bibliography

  10. External links

{{Use dmy dates|date=May 2016}}{{Infobox military conflict
| conflict = Sectarian Violence in Iraq (2006–2008)
| partof = the Iraq War (2003–11), Iraqi insurgency (2003–11) and the Iraq conflict (2003–present)
| image = Ethnoreligious Iraq.svg
| caption = Ethnic and religious groups in Iraq:{{col-begin}}{{col-break}}{{legend|#ffaaaa|Shia Arabs|outline=white smoke}}{{legend|#aaffcc|Sunni Arabs|outline=white smoke}}{{legend|#eeffaa|Iraqi Kurds|outline=white smoke}}{{col-break}}{{legend|#ccaaff|Iraqi Assyrians|outline=white smoke}}{{legend|#cdde87|Iraqi Yazidis|outline=white smoke}}{{legend|#ff9955|Iraqi Turkmen|outline=white smoke}}{{col-end}}
| date = 22 February 2006{{spaced ndash}}fall 2008[1]
| place = Central Iraq and Baghdad
| result =
  • Tens of thousands of Iraqis killed[2]
  • 4 million people displaced
  • U.S. Troop Surge in January 2007
  • Shi'a dominated governments formed after 2005 and 2010 elections
  • Presence of British and American troops in advise and assist roles until 2011[3]

| combatant1 = Sunni factions:
{{flagicon image|Flag of the Ba'ath Party.svg}} Iraqi Ba'ath Party Loyalists
  • {{flagicon image|Logo of the Supreme Command for Jihad and Liberation.png}} Supreme Command for Jihad and Liberation
  • Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order
Ansar al-Sunna
{{flagicon image|IAILogo.png}} Islamic Army of Iraq
Sunni tribes
Other Sunni insurgents and militia
Mujahideen Shura Council
  • {{flagicon image|Flag of al-Qaeda in Iraq.svg}} al-Qaeda in Iraq (until October 2006)
{{flagicon image|Flag of The Islamic State of Iraq.jpg}} Islamic State of Iraq
| combatant2 = Shi'a factions:
{{flagicon image|Flag of Jihad.svg}} Mahdi Army
{{flagicon image|Shiism arabic blue.PNG}} Special Groups
  • Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq
  • {{flagicon image|Kata'ib Hezbollah logo.svg}} Kata'ib Hezbollah
  • {{flagicon image|Flag of Promised Day Brigades.svg}} Promised Day Brigades
{{Flagicon image|Badr Organisation Military flag.svg}} Badr Brigades

Rogue elements among the Iraqi security forces

Soldiers of Heaven
Shia tribes
Other militias
| combatant3 = Public stability:
{{Flagicon|Iraq}} Iraqi security forces
{{Flagicon|United States}} United States
{{Flagicon|United Kingdom}} United Kingdom[4]
{{flagicon image|Flag of Multi-National Force – Iraq.png|size=23px}} Other coalition forces
Private Security Contractors
{{Flagicon|Kurdistan}} Peshmerga
Sons of Iraq[5]
| commander1 ={{flagicon image|Flag of the Ba'ath Party.svg}} Izzat Ibrahim ad-Douri
{{flagicon image|Flag of the Ba'ath Party.svg}} Mohammed Younis al-Ahmed
Abu Abdullah al-Shafi'i{{POW}}
Fakri Hadi Gari{{POW}}
Ishmael Jubouri
{{flagicon image|Flag of The Islamic State of Iraq.jpg}} Abu Omar al-Baghdadi{{KIA}}
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi{{KIA}}
{{flagicon image|Flag of The Islamic State of Iraq.jpg}} Abu Ayyub al-Masri{{KIA}}
{{flagicon|al-Qaeda}} Abu Suleiman
| commander2 =Muqtada al-Sadr
Abu Deraa
Qais al-Khazali{{POW}}
Akram al-Kabi
Arkan Hasnawi{{KIA}}
{{Flagicon image|Badr Organisation Military flag.svg}} Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim{{KIA}}
{{Flagicon image|Badr Organisation Military flag.svg}} Abdul Aziz al-Hakim
{{Flagicon image|Badr Organisation Military flag.svg}} Hadi al-Amiri
Abu Mustafa al-Sheibani
Dia Abdul Zahra Kadim{{KIA}}

Ahmed Hassani al-Yemeni{{KIA}}


| commander3 = {{Flagicon|Iraq}}{{Flagicon|Kurdistan}} Jalal Talabani
{{Flagicon|Iraq}} Ibrahim al-Jaafari
{{Flagicon|Iraq}} Nouri al-Maliki
{{Flagicon|United States}} Tommy Franks
{{Flagicon|Kurdistan}} Massoud Barzani
Abdul Sattar Abu Risha{{KIA}}
Ahmad Abu Risha
| strength1 = Sunni insurgents: 70,000 (2003–2007)[6]

Foreign Mujahedeen: 1,300[7]
|strength2 = Mahdi Army: 60,000 (2003–2008)[8]
Badr Organisation: 20,000[9]
Soldiers of Heaven: 1,000[10]
Special Groups: 7,000 (2011)[11]
| strength3 = Coalition
~49,700 current
Contractors
~7,000[12][13]
Iraqi Security Forces
618,000 (805,269 Army and 348,000 Police)[14]
Awakening Council militias
103,000[15]
| casualties1 =
| casualties2 =
| casualties3 =
| notes = N.B.: The factional situation is complex; Sunni- and Shi'ite-linked militias have also fought amongst each other, and have colluded with government forces. Some casualties also linked to the crime activities and not due to the war. See the full text for details.
|*Some casualties were related to the local crime.
| campaignbox = {{Campaignbox Iraq War}}
}}

Between 2006 and 2008, Iraq experienced a high level of sectarian violence. Some scholars and journalists state that the country was experiencing a civil war.[16]

Following the U.S.-launched 2003 invasion of Iraq, intercommunal violence between Iraqi Sunni and Shi'a factions became prevalent. In February 2006, the Sunni organization Al-Qaeda in Iraq bombed one of the holiest sites in Shi'a Islam—the al-Askari Mosque in Samarra. This set off a wave of Shi'a reprisals against Sunnis followed by Sunni counterattacks.[17] The conflict escalated over the next several months until by 2007, the National Intelligence Estimate described the situation as having elements of a civil war.[18] In 2008 and 2009, during the Sunni Awakening and the surge, violence declined dramatically.[19][20] However, low-level strife continued to plague Iraq until the U.S. withdrawal in late 2011.[16]

Two polls of Americans conducted in 2006 found that between 65% to 85% believed Iraq was in a civil war;[21][22] however, a similar poll of Iraqis conducted in 2007 found that 61% did not believe that they were in a civil war.[24]

In October 2006, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the Iraqi government estimated that more than 370,000 Iraqis had been displaced since the 2006 bombing of the al-Askari Mosque, bringing the total number of Iraqi refugees to more than 1.6 million.[23] By 2008, the UNHCR raised the estimate of refugees to a total of about 4.7 million (~16% of the population). The number of refugees estimated abroad was 2 million (a number close to CIA projections[24]) and the number of internally displaced people was 2.7 million.[25] The estimated number of orphans across Iraq has ranged from 400,000 (according to the Baghdad Provincial Council), to five million (according to Iraq's anti-corruption board). A UN report from 2008 placed the number of orphans at about 870,000.[26][27] The Red Cross stated in 2008 that Iraq's humanitarian situation was among the most critical in the world, with millions of Iraqis forced to rely on insufficient and poor-quality water sources.[28]

According to the Failed States Index, produced by Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace, Iraq was one of the world's top 5 unstable states from 2005 to 2008.[29] A poll of top U.S. foreign policy experts conducted in 2007 showed that over the next 10 years, just 3% of experts believed the U.S. would be able to rebuild Iraq into a "beacon of democracy" and 58% of experts believed that Sunni–Shiite tensions would dramatically increase in the Middle East.[30][31]

Ethno-sectarian composition

{{Main|Sectarian violence among Muslims}}

The population of Iraq can be divided into several main ideological or ethnic strands:

  • Shias (Arabic speaking): 55–65%: A majority of the population.
  • Sunnis (Arabic speaking): 20%: Politically dominated Iraq for centuries until the Coalition invasion of 2003.
  • Kurdish – 26%: independent administration (mostly Sunnis, small Shi'ite, Yazidi, and other elements).
  • Assyrian – 1%: This group has a minor role in the current situation (mostly Christians).
  • Turkoman – 2%: This group has a minor role in the current situation (majority Sunni with large Shi'a minority), although Turkey is concerned about their overall treatment in Iraq.

Religions:

  • Islam – 95%: This is the primary religion in Iraq and serves as one of the primary sectarian distinctions.
    • Sunni – 30%: Majority Arabs with Kurds and Turkomans by 3 to 1.
    • Shi'ite – 65%: Mainly Arabs with a very small minority of Kurds and Turkomans.
  • Christian, Mandaeans and Yazidi ~ 5%: These groups have a minor role in the civil war situation.

The main two participants in the violence were the Arab Sunni and Arab Shia factions, but conflicts within a single group also occurred. The Kurds were caught between the two religious groups, but as they were an ethnicity as opposed to a religious movement, they were often at odds with the Arabs that were settled in Iraqi Kurdistan by Saddam's Arabization policy.[32] Blurring this cohesion, though, were division of social, economic, political and geographic identities.

Participants

{{Main|Al-Qaeda in Iraq|Iraqi insurgency (Iraq War)|Private militias in Iraq}}

A multitude of groups formed the Iraqi insurgency, which arose in a piecemeal fashion as a reaction to local events, notably the realisation of the U.S. military's inability to control Iraq.[33] Beginning in 2005 the insurgent forces coalesced around several main factions, including the Islamic Army in Iraq and Ansar al-Sunna.[34] Religious justification was used to support the political actions of these groups, as well as a marked adherence to Salafism, branding those against the jihad as non-believers. This approach played a role in the rise of sectarian violence.[35] The U.S. military also believe that between 5-10% of insurgent forces are non-Iraqi Arabs.[33]

Independent Shi'ite militias identified themselves around sectarian ideology and possessed various levels of influence and power. Some militias were founded in exile and returned to Iraq only after the toppling of Saddam Hussein, such as the Badr Organization. Others were created since the state collapse, the largest and most uniform of which was the Mahdi Army established by Moqtada al-Sadr and believed to have around 50,000 fighters.[33]

Conflict and tactics

Non-military targets

Attacks on non-military and civilian targets began in earnest in August 2003 as an attempt to sow chaos and sectarian discord. Iraqi casualties increased over the next several years.[36][37]

Bomb and mortar attacks

Bomb attacks aimed at civilians usually targeted crowded places such as marketplaces and mosques in Shi'ite cities and districts.[38][39] The bombings, which were sometimes co-ordinated, often inflicted extreme casualties.

For example, the 23 November 2006 Sadr City bombings killed at least 215 people and injured hundreds more in the Sadr City district of Baghdad, sparking reprisal attacks, and the 3 February 2007 Baghdad market bombing killed at least 135 and injured more than 300. The co-ordinated 2 March 2004 Iraq Ashura bombings (including car bombs, suicide bombers and mortar, grenade and rocket attacks) killed at least 178 people and injured at least 500.

Suicide bombings

{{Main|List of suicide bombings in Iraq since 2003}}

Since August 2003, suicide car bombs were increasingly used as weapons by Sunni militants, primarily al-Qaeda extremists. The car bombs, known in the military as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), emerged as one of the militants' most effective weapons, directed not only against civilian targets but also against Iraqi police stations and recruiting centers.

These vehicle IEDs were often driven by the extremists from foreign Muslim countries with a history of militancy, such as Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Egypt, and Pakistan.[40]

Death squads

Death squad-style killings in Iraq took place in a variety of ways. Kidnapping, followed by often extreme torture (such as drilling holes in people's feet with drills[41]) and execution-style killings, sometimes public (in some cases, beheadings), emerged as another tactic. In some cases, tapes of the execution were distributed for propaganda purposes. The bodies were usually dumped on a roadside or in other places, several at a time. There were also several relatively large-scale massacres, like the Hay al Jihad massacre in which some 40 Sunnis were killed in a response to the car bombing which killed a dozen Shi'ites.

The death squads were often disgruntled Shi'ites, including members of the security forces, who killed Sunnis to avenge the consequences of the insurgency against the Shi'ite-dominated government.[42]

Iraq Body Count project data shows that 33% of civilian deaths during the Iraq War resulted from execution after abduction or capture. These were overwhelmingly carried out by unknown actors including insurgents, sectarian militias and criminals. Such killings occurred much more frequently during the 2006–07 period of sectarian violence.[43]

Attacks on places of worship

On 22 February 2006, a highly provocative explosion took place at the al-Askari Mosque in the Iraqi city of Samarra, one of the holiest sites in Shi'a Islam, believed to have been caused by a bomb planted by al-Qaeda in Iraq. Although no injuries occurred in the blast, the mosque was severely damaged and the bombing resulted in violence over the following days. Over 100 dead bodies with bullet holes were found on the next day, and at least 165 people are thought to have been killed. In the aftermath of this attack the U.S. military calculated that the average homicide rate in Baghdad tripled from 11 to 33 deaths per day.[33]

Dozens of Iraqi mosques were aftwerwards attacked or taken over by the sectarian forces. For example, a Sunni mosque was burnt in the southern Iraqi town of Haswa on 25 March 2007, in the revenge for the destruction of a Shia mosque in the town the previous day.[44] In several cases, Christian churches were also attacked by the extremists. Later, another al-Askari bombing took place in June 2007.

Iraq's Christian minority also became a target by Al Qaeda Sunnis because of conflicting theological ideas.[45][46]

Sectarian desertions

Some Iraqi service members deserted the military or the police and others refused to serve in hostile areas.[47] For example, some members of one sect refused to serve in neighborhoods dominated by other sects.[47] The ethnic Kurdish soldiers from northern Iraq, who were mostly Sunnis but not Arabs, were also reported to be deserting the army to avoid the civil strife in Baghdad.[48]

Timeline

{{Main|2003 in Iraq|2004 in Iraq|2005 in Iraq|2006 in Iraq|2007 in Iraq|2008 in Iraq|2009 in Iraq|2010 in Iraq|2011 in Iraq}}

For more information on events in a specific year, see the associated timeline page.

Growth in refugee flight

{{Main|Refugees of Iraq}}

By 2008, the UNHCR raised the estimate of refugees to a total of about 4.7 million, with 2 million displaced internally and 2.7 million displaced externally.[25] In April 2006 the Ministry of Displacement and Migration estimated that "nearly 70,000 displaced Iraqis, especially from the capital, are living in deteriorating conditions," due to ongoing sectarian violence.[49] Roughly 40% of Iraq's middle class is believed to have fled, the U.N. said. Most were fleeing systematic persecution and had no desire to return.[50] Refugees were mired in poverty as they were generally barred from working in their host countries.[51][52] A 25 May 2007 article noted that in the past seven months only 69 people from Iraq had been granted refugee status in the United States.[53]

Use of "civil war" label

The use of the term "civil war" has been controversial, with a number of commentators preferring the term "civil conflict".

A poll of over 5,000 Iraqi nationals found that 27% of polled Iraqi residents agreed that Iraq was in a civil war, while 61% thought Iraq was not.[54] Two similar polls of Americans conducted in 2006 found that between 65% to 85% believed Iraq was in a civil war.[21][22]

In the United States, the term has been politicized. Deputy leader of the United States Senate, Dick Durbin, referred to "this civil war in Iraq"[55] in a criticism of George W. Bush's 10 January 2007, President's Address to the Nation.[56]

Edward Wong on 26 November 2006 paraphrased a report from a group of American professors at Stanford University that the insurgency in Iraq amounted to the classic definition of a civil war.[57]

An unclassified summary of the 90-page January 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, titled Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead, states the following regarding the use of the term "civil war":

The Intelligence Community judges that the term "civil war" does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa'ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term "civil war" accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.[58]

Retired United States Army General Barry McCaffrey issued a report on 26 March 2007, after a trip and analysis of the situation in Iraq. The report labeled the situation a "low-grade civil war."[59] In page 3 of the report, he writes that:

"Iraq is ripped by a low-grade civil war which has worsened to catastrophic levels with as many as 3000 citizens murdered per month. The population is in despair. Life in many of the urban areas is now desperate. A handful of foreign fighter (500+)—and a couple thousand Al Qaeda operatives incite open factional struggle through suicide bombings which target Shia holy places and innocent civilians. ... The police force is feared as a Shia militia in uniform which is responsible for thousands of extra-judicial killings."

See also

{{Portal|Iraq}}
  • Iraq conflict (2003–present)
  • Casualties of the conflict in Iraq since 2003
  • Shia–Sunni relations
  • Iraqi insurgency
  • Refugees of Iraq
Events:
  • 2 March 2004 Iraq Ashura bombings
  • 23 November 2006 Sadr City bombings
  • 22 January 2007 Baghdad bombings
  • 3 February 2007 Baghdad market bombing
  • Hay al Jihad massacre
General:
  • Ethnic cleansing
  • Ethnic conflict
  • Sectarianism
  • Religion in Iraq
  • Religious war

Films

  • Iraq in Fragments, documentary (2006)

References

1. ^Anthony H. Cordesman (2011), [https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/110209_Iraq-PattofViolence.pdf "Iraq: Patterns of Violence, Casualty Trends and Emerging Security Threats"] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171012070900/https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/110209_Iraq-PattofViolence.pdf |date=12 October 2017}}, p. 33.
2. ^Iraq Body Count {{webarchive|url=https://www.webcitation.org/5lAQuuCz8?url=http://www.iraqbodycount.org/ |date=9 November 2009}}. Retrieved 18 September 2007.
3. ^* International Crisis Group: "Iraq’s Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge" {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080213023354/http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=5286 |date=13 February 2008}}. Released on 7 February 2008.* The Costs of Containing Iran {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080214092305/http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080101faessay87106-p10/vali-nasr-ray-takeyh/the-costs-of-containing-iran.html |date=14 February 2008}}. Nasr, Vali and Takeyh, Ray (Jan/Feb 2008).
to preserve the territorial integrity of Iraq and prevent the civil war there from engulfing the Middle East.
* International Crisis Group: "Iraq after the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape" {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080514003909/http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=5415 |date=14 May 2008}}. Released on 30 April 2008.
4. ^{{cite news |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aslB2LAf_hWs |publisher=Bloomberg |title=U.K. Finishes Withdrawal of Its Last Combat Troops in Iraq |date=26 May 2009}}
5. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20071222/iraq/|title=Iraq Government Vows to Disband Sunnis|work=The Huffington Post |accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20141129071958/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20071222/iraq/|archivedate=29 November 2014|df=dmy-all}}
6. ^The Brookings Institution Iraq Index: Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071002041710/http://www3.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf |date=2 October 2007 }}. 1 October 2007
7. ^{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/16/AR2006111601509.html |work=The Washington Post |title=Violence in Iraq Called Increasingly Complex |first=Walter |last=Pincus |date=17 November 2006 |accessdate=30 April 2010 |deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20100806054955/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/16/AR2006111601509.html |archivedate=6 August 2010 |df=dmy-all }}
8. ^{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/10/AR2007011002581_pf.html |work=The Washington Post |title=Intensified Combat on Streets Likely |first1=Thomas E. |last1=Ricks |accessdate=30 April 2010 |deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110428213841/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/10/AR2007011002581_pf.html |archivedate=28 April 2011 |df=dmy-all }}
9. ^{{cite web|url=https://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/94156.pdf|title=We're sorry, that page can't be found.|author=|date=|website=fpc.state.gov|accessdate=5 May 2018|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20170809022224/https://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/94156.pdf|archivedate=9 August 2017|df=dmy-all}}
10. ^"Using that self aggrandizing, self appointed title, al Hassan built up a force of a thousand men" The Hidden Imam's Dream – Sky News, 30 January 2007
11. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2011-06-30-us-troops-iraq_n.htm|title=June deadliest month for U.S. troops in 2 years|work=USA Today|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20120115160657/http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2011-06-30-us-troops-iraq_n.htm|archivedate=15 January 2012|df=dmy-all}}
12. ^"Private contractors outnumber U.S. troops in Iraq" {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070902082133/http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-na-private4jul04,0,5419234,full.story |date=2 September 2007}}. By T. Christian Miller. Los Angeles Times. 4 July 2007.
13. ^"Contractor deaths add up in Iraq" {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080613214957/http://www.deseretnews.com/dn/view/0%2C1249%2C660198347%2C00.html |date=13 June 2008}}. By Michelle Roberts. Deseret Morning News. 24 February 2007.
14. ^Collins, C. (19 August 2007) "U.S. says Iranians train Iraqi insurgents," {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080307024753/http://www.mcclatchydc.com/iraq/story/19049.html |date=7 March 2008}} McClatchy Newspapers
15. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,159357,00.html|title=A Dark Side to Iraq 'Awakening' Groups|publisher=|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://www.webcitation.org/6Hr0IiXxg?url=http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,159357,00.html|archivedate=4 July 2013|df=dmy-all}}
16. ^{{cite news|title=Car Bomb Epidemic Is the New Normal in Iraq|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/04/world/middleeast/car-bomb-epidemic-is-the-new-normal-in-iraq.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print |newspaper=New York Times|date=3 September 2013|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20171021060107/http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/04/world/middleeast/car-bomb-epidemic-is-the-new-normal-in-iraq.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print |archivedate=21 October 2017|df=dmy-all}}
17. ^{{cite book|title=Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security |author=Kenneth Katzman|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=NtJ163gwKHIC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false|publisher=Congressional Research Service|page=29|year=2009 |isbn=978-1-4379-1944-8}}
18. ^{{cite journal|title=Elements of 'civil war' in Iraq|quote=A US intelligence assessment on Iraq says "civil war" accurately describes certain aspects of the conflict, including intense sectarian violence.|date=2 February 2007|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/middle_east/6324767.stm|publisher=BBC News |accessdate=2 January 2010}}
19. ^{{cite web|url=http://csis.org/files/publication/110209_Iraq-PattofViolence.pdf|title=Iraq: Patterns of Violence, Casualty Trends and Emerging Security Threats|publisher=Center for Strategic & International Studies|date=9 February 2011|accessdate=13 October 2013|page=14|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20131017004533/http://csis.org/files/publication/110209_Iraq-PattofViolence.pdf|archivedate=17 October 2013|df=dmy-all}}
20. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2013/07/30%20fall%20rise%20fall%20iraq%20pollack/pollack_iraq.pdf|title=The File and Rise and Fall of Iraq|author=Kenneth Pollack|date=July 2013|publisher=Brookings Institution|accessdate=13 October 2013|deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20131106235704/http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Papers/2013/07/30%20fall%20rise%20fall%20iraq%20pollack/Pollack_Iraq.pdf|archivedate=6 November 2013|df=dmy-all}}
21. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/09/28/poll.iraq/index.html|title=Poll: Nearly two-thirds of Americans say Iraq in civil war|publisher=CNN|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20141129114323/http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/09/28/poll.iraq/index.html|archivedate=29 November 2014|df=dmy-all}}
22. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/dec06iraq.pdf|title=12/06 CBS: 85% of Americans now characterize the situation in Iraq as a Civil War|author=|date=|publisher=CBS News|accessdate=5 May 2018|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20171018164433/http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/dec06iraq.pdf|archivedate=18 October 2017|df=dmy-all}}
23. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.unhcr.org/news/NEWS/452fa9954.html|title=Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees|author=United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees |publisher=UNHCR|accessdate=20 November 2014}}
24. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iz.html|title=CIA World Factbook: Iraq|publisher=|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090513074113/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iz.html |archivedate=13 May 2009|df=dmy-all}}
25. ^UNHCR – Iraq: Latest return survey shows few intending to go home soon. Published 29 April 2008. Retrieved 20 May 2008.
26. ^5 million Iraqi orphans, anti-corruption board reveals {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121217151042/http://gorillasguides.com/2007/12/15/5-million-orphans/ |date=17 December 2012}} English translation of Aswat Al Iraq newspaper 15 December 2007
27. ^{{cite web|url=http://mawtani.al-shorfa.com/en_GB/articles/iii/features/iraqtoday/2012/03/27/feature-01|title="Draft law seeks to provide Iraqi orphans with comprehensive support" by Khalid al-Tale, 27 March 2012|date=27 March 2012|work=Mawtani|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20130112045604/http://mawtani.al-shorfa.com/en_GB/articles/iii/features/iraqtoday/2012/03/27/feature-01|archivedate=12 January 2013|df=dmy-all}}
28. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/report/iraq-report-170308.htm|title=Iraq: No let-up in the humanitarian crisis|publisher=|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20141221060242/https://www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/report/iraq-report-170308.htm|archivedate=21 December 2014|df=dmy-all}}
29. ^* {{cite web|url=http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=103&Itemid=325|title=Failed States list 2005|publisher=Fund for Peace|accessdate=24 June 2008|deadurl=yes|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20080619230117/http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=103&Itemid=325|archivedate=19 June 2008|df=dmy-all}}* {{cite web|url=http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=104&Itemid=324|title=Failed States list 2006|publisher=Fund for Peace|accessdate=24 June 2008|deadurl=yes|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20080223095751/http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=104&Itemid=324|archivedate=23 February 2008|df=dmy-all}}* {{cite web |url=http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=229&Itemid=366 |title=Failed States list 2007 |publisher=Fund for Peace |accessdate=19 June 2007 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20070620194359/http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=229&Itemid=366 |archivedate=20 June 2007 |df=dmy-all}}* {{cite web|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4350&page=1|title=Failed States list 2008|publisher=Fund for Peace|accessdate=24 June 2008|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20080626091706/http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4350&page=1|archivedate=26 June 2008|df=dmy-all}}
30. ^{{cite web|url=https://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070820/pl_nm/security_usa_bush_dc;_ylt=Au59xROu4wsVd5s8u2fll42s0NUE|title=U.S. foreign policy experts oppose surge|author=|date=|website=yahoo.com|accessdate=5 May 2018}}
31. ^{{cite web|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/images/TI3_Final_Results.doc|title=Page not found |author=|date=|website=Foreign Policy|accessdate=5 May 2018|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20071031172626/http://www.foreignpolicy.com/images/TI3_Final_Results.doc|archivedate=31 October 2007|df=dmy-all}}
32. ^"US exit may lead to Iraqi civil war {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051203232558/http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/11/18/1069027122315.html?oneclick=true |date=3 December 2005 }}". 19 November 2003
33. ^{{cite journal |doi=10.1080/00396330701254545 |title=The Causes of US Failure in Iraq |year=2007 |last1=Dodge |first1=Toby |journal=Survival |volume=49 |issue=1 |pages=85–106}}
34. ^{{cite web |publisher=International Crisis Group |title=In Their Own Words: Reading the Iraqi Insurgency |date=15 February 2006 |url=http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iraq/050-in-their-own-words-reading-the-iraqi-insurgency.aspx |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20130611235220/http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iraq/050-in-their-own-words-reading-the-iraqi-insurgency.aspx |archivedate=11 June 2013 |df=dmy-all }}
35. ^{{cite book |first1=Roel |last1=Meijer |chapter=The Sunni Resistance and the Political Process |editor1-first=Markus |editor1-last=Bouillion |editor2-first=David |editor2-last=Malone |editor3-first=Ben |editor3-last=Rowsell |title=Preventing Another Generation of Conflict |publisher=Lynne Rienner}}{{page needed|date=April 2013}}
36. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/pr_2004/burnham_iraq.html|title=Johns Hopkins School of Public Health: Iraqi Civilian Deaths Increase Dramatically After Invasion|author=Administrative User|date=7 January 2013|publisher=Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20070808101642/http://www.jhsph.edu/PublicHealthNews/Press_Releases/PR_2004/Burnham_Iraq.html|archivedate=8 August 2007|df=dmy-all}}
37. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB120977505566564207|work=Wall Street Journal |title=The Truth About Iraq's Casualty Count|author=Max Boot|date=3 May 2008|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20150128060139/http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB120977505566564207|archivedate=28 January 2015|df=dmy-all}}
38. ^AFP: Bomb attack kills more than 40 near Iraq Shiite shrine {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110520135655/http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hm9Cg5d3rObVK5RiQ9Soznjs8DKA |date=20 May 2011 }}
39. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/03/06/iraq.main/index.html|title=Pair of bombs kills 53 in Baghdad, officials say|publisher=CNN|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20141129114330/http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/03/06/iraq.main/index.html|archivedate=29 November 2014|df=dmy-all}}
40. ^{{cite news|title=U.S. Shifting Focus to Foreign Fighters|author=Bradley Graham|newspaper=Washington Post|quote=U.S. and Iraqi authorities say suicide drivers are invariable foreign fighters. Officers here said they knew of no documented case in which a suicide attacker turned out to have been an Iraqi.|url=http://www.aina.org/news/2005059101601.pdf|date=9 May 2005|accessdate=13 October 2013|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20150128061304/http://www.aina.org/news/2005059101601.pdf|archivedate=28 January 2015|df=dmy-all}}
41. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article737635.ece |title=Archived copy |accessdate=2007-09-21 |deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20070208095245/http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article737635.ece |archivedate=8 February 2007 |df=dmy-all }}{{full citation needed|date=April 2013}}
42. ^{{cite news|publisher=BBC News|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4719252.stm|title=Iraq 'death squad caught in act'|date=16 February 2006|accessdate=13 December 2013|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20131126085125/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4719252.stm|archivedate=26 November 2013|df=dmy-all}}
43. ^The Weapons That Kill Civilians — Deaths of Children and Noncombatants in Iraq, 2003–2008 by Madelyn Hsiao-Rei Hicks, M.D., M.R.C.Psych., Hamit Dardagan, Gabriela Guerrero Serdán, M.A., Peter M. Bagnall, M.Res., John A. Sloboda, Ph.D., F.B.A., and Michael Spagat, Ph.D. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171201033826/http://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp0807240 |date=1 December 2017}} The New England Journal of Medicine
44. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2007/03/2008525145112140393.html|title=Iraq Mosque Burnt In Revenge Attack|publisher=Al Jazeera English|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20150128061504/http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2007/03/2008525145112140393.html|archivedate=28 January 2015|df=dmy-all}}
45. ^{{cite web|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3529364.stm|title=BBC Analysis: Iraq's Christians under attack|publisher=BBC News|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20141129091212/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3529364.stm|archivedate=29 November 2014|df=dmy-all}}
46. ^http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100320/MAGAZINE/703199980/1298/MAGAZINE1 {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131014173328/http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=%2F20100320%2FMAGAZINE%2F703199980%2F1298%2FMAGAZINE1 |date=14 October 2013}}
47. ^[https://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec06/iraq_10-27.html Former CIA Officer Says Iraq Can Be Stabilized By Trained Security Forces] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140115163002/http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec06/iraq_10-27.html |date=15 January 2014}} PBS Newshour
48. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.aina.org/news/20070119191354.htm|title=Kurdish Iraqi Soldiers Are Deserting to Avoid the Conflict in Baghdad|publisher=|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20141129025841/http://www.aina.org/news/20070119191354.htm|archivedate=29 November 2014|df=dmy-all}}
49. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2006/04/iraq-060417-irin01.htm|title=IRAQ: Sectarian violence continues to spur displacement|author=John Pike|publisher=|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20141129034357/http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2006/04/iraq-060417-irin01.htm|archivedate=29 November 2014|df=dmy-all}}
50. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/01/16/MNG2MNJBIS1.DTL|title=40% of middle class believed to have fled crumbling nation|work=SFGate|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20120514154640/http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=%2Fc%2Fa%2F2007%2F01%2F16%2FMNG2MNJBIS1.DTL|archivedate=14 May 2012|df=dmy-all}}
51. ^{{cite web|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6293807.stm|title=Doors closing on fleeing Iraqis|publisher=BBC News|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20141011014752/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6293807.stm|archivedate=11 October 2014|df=dmy-all}}
52. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/07/23/MNGPCR4S601.DTL&feed=rss.news|title=Displaced Iraqis running out of cash, and prices are rising|work=San Francisco Chronicle|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20120514154622/http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=%2Fc%2Fa%2F2007%2F07%2F23%2FMNGPCR4S601.DTL&feed=rss.news|archivedate=14 May 2012|df=dmy-all}}
53. ^Ann McFeatters: Iraq refugees find no refuge in America. Seattle Post-Intelligencer 25 May 2007
54. ^{{cite news |url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1530762.ece |title=Iraqis: life is getting better |publisher=The Times |date=18 March 2007 |location=London |first=Marie |last=Colvin |accessdate=30 April 2010 |deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110429095521/http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1530762.ece |archivedate=29 April 2011 |df=dmy-all}}[]
55. ^Susan Milligan, "Democrats say they will force lawmakers to vote on increase {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120114105153/http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2007/01/11/democrats_say_they_will_force_lawmakers_to_vote_on_increase/ |date=14 January 2012}}". Boston Globe. 11 July 2006
56. ^{{cite web|url=https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html|title=President's Address to the Nation|date=10 January 2007|publisher=|accessdate=20 November 2014|deadurl=no|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110501145439/http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html |archivedate=1 May 2011|df=dmy-all}}
57. ^{{cite news |agency=International Herald Tribune |work=The New York Times |title=Scholars agree Iraq meets definition of 'civil war' |date=26 November 2006 |first=Edward |last=Wong |authorlink=Edward Wong |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/world/africa/26iht-civil.3675083.html |deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20150128071306/http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/world/africa/26iht-civil.3675083.html |archivedate=28 January 2015 |df=dmy-all }}
58. ^{{cite news |url=http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20070202_release.pdf |title=Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead (PDF) |publisher=National Intelligence Estimate |date=January 2007 |format=PDF |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20070302125700/http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20070202_release.pdf |archivedate=2 March 2007 |df=dmy-all}}
59. ^{{cite web |url=http://www.defensetech.org/archives/Iraq%20After%20action.pdf |title=Archived copy |accessdate=2007-03-30 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20070615003217/http://www.defensetech.org/archives/Iraq%20After%20action.pdf |archivedate=15 June 2007 |df=dmy-all}}

Bibliography

  • Iraq Study Group, The Iraq Study Group Report: The Way Forward – A New Approach (2006)
  • Nir Rosen, In the Belly of the Green Bird: The Triumph of the Martyrs in Iraq (2006)

External links

  • Refugees Report "[https://web.archive.org/web/20080503234658/http://www.refugeesinternational.org/content/article/detail/9679 The Iraqi Displacement Crisis]" Refugees International, March 2008.
  • United States Dept. of Homeland Security [https://web.archive.org/web/20120212182655/http://www.dhs.gov/xnews/releases/pr_1205327590498.shtm Fact Sheet on admitting Iraqi refugees to the United States] March 2008.
  • Sami Ramadani interview "Iraq is not a civil war" International Socialism, Spring 2007.
  • Taheri, Amir. "[https://web.archive.org/web/20061208041507/http://www.benadorassociates.com/article/20385 There is no Civil War in Iraq], Gulf News, 6 December 2006.
  • Phillips, David L., "Federalism can prevent Iraq civil war{{dead link|date=February 2018|bot=medic}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}", 20 July 2005.
  • Hider, James, "Weekend of slaughter propels Iraq towards all-out civil war", The Times, 18 July 2005.
  • Ramadani, Sami, "Occupation and Civil War", The Guardian, 8 July 2005.
  • Phelps, Timothy M., "Experts: Iraq Verges on Civil War". Newsday, 12 May 2005.
  • Strobel, Warren P., and Jonathan S. Landay, "[https://web.archive.org/web/20050404055918/http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0122-01.htm CIA Officers Warn of Iraq Civil War, Contradicting Bush's Optimism]", Knight-Ridder, 22 January 2004.
  • "US exit may lead to Iraqi civil war", Sydney Morning Herald, 19 November 2003.
  • Dunnigan, James, "[https://web.archive.org/web/20050827035737/http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/20030404.asp The Coming Iraqi Civil War]", 4 April 2003
{{Iraq War}}{{Armed Iraqi Groups in the Iraq War and the Iraq Civil War}}{{DEFAULTSORT:Iraq}}

15 : 2004 in Iraq|2005 in Iraq|2006 in Iraq|2007 in Iraq|2008 in Iraq|Iraq War|Al-Qaeda activities in Iraq|Iraqi insurgency (2003–2011)|Occupation of Iraq|Politics of Iraq|Religiously motivated violence in Iraq|Civil wars in Iraq|Civil wars post-1945|Religion-based civil wars|Wars involving Iraq

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