释义 |
- District 1 Democratic primary Declared Results Republican primary Declared Results Independents Declared Endorsements General election Polling Results
- District 2 Democratic primary Candidates Declared Withdrawn Declined Endorsements Polling Fundraising Results Republican primary Declared Results Green primary Failed to make the ballot Libertarian primary Withdrawn Independent candidates General election Endorsements Polling Predictions Results
- See also
- References
- External links
{{Infobox Election | election_name = 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine | country = Maine | type = legislative | ongoing = no | previous_election = 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine | previous_year = 2016 | next_election = 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine | next_year = 2020 | seats_for_election = Both Maine seats to the United States House of Representatives | election_date = {{Start date|2018|11|06}} | party1 = Democratic Party (United States) | last_election1 = 1 | seats1 = 2 | seat_change1 = {{increase}}1 | popular_vote1 = 333,208 | percentage1 = 52.75% | swing1 = {{Increase}}0.82% | party2 = Republican Party (United States) | last_election2 = 1 | seats2 = 0 | seat_change2 = {{decrease}}1 | popular_vote2 = 245,372 | percentage2 = 38.84% | swing2 = {{decrease}}9.17% | map_image = | map_caption = }}{{ElectionsME}}The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the two U.S. Representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with elections to the United States Senate, a gubernatorial election, and various state and local elections. These U.S. House elections were conducted with ranked choice voting, as opposed to a simple plurality, after Maine voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016[1] and a June 2018 referendum sustaining the change.[2] Ranked choice voting was used in the primary elections as well.[3] While Rep. Chellie Pingree in District 1 was reelected with a majority, no candidate received a majority in District 2 which meant ranked choice tabulating needed to occur. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, who received a plurality of first round votes, filed a federal lawsuit to halt that tabulation, arguing that ranked choice voting was unconstitutional. The court ruled against Poliquin in his request for a motion on November 15 and against the lawsuit itself on December 13. On November 15, Jared Golden was declared the winner on ranked choice redistribution. {{Toclimit|limit=2}}District 1{{see also|Maine's 1st congressional district}}Chellie Pingree, the incumbent representative, was first elected in 2008, and in 2016 defeated Republican nominee Mark Holbrook with just under 58 percent of the vote. Holbrook ran again for the Republican nomination, and was unopposed. Independent State Representative Marty Grohman, elected as a Democrat in the 2016 State House election, defected the party in 2017. He launched his campaign for the first district in spring 2018. Due to the use of ranked choice voting in the election, Pingree was considered to be vulnerable if she did not win outright in the first round, as Grohman could have been a second choice for Republican and Democratic voters.[4] Grohman was receiving substantial support from Republican elected officials and activists, including Republican Governor Paul LePage[5] and the State Director of President Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign Christie-Lee McNally.[6] Democratic primaryDeclared- Chellie Pingree, incumbent U.S. representative[5]
Results{{Election box begin no change | title = Democratic primary results }}{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change | candidate = Chellie Pingree (incumbent) | party = Democratic Party (United States) | votes = 74,376 | percentage = 100.0 }}{{Election box total no change | votes = 74,376 | percentage = 100.0 }}{{Election box end}}Republican primaryDeclared- Mark Holbrook, professional counselor and 2016 nominee for this seat[6]
Results{{Election box begin no change | title = Republican primary results }}{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change | candidate = Mark Holbrook | party = Republican Party (United States) | votes = 40,679 | percentage = 100.0 }}{{Election box total no change | votes = 40,679 | percentage = 100.0 }}{{Election box end}}IndependentsDeclared- Marty Grohman, state representative [6]
Endorsements{{Endorsements box | title = Chellie Pingree | list =- Local and statewide politicians
- Christopher Babbidge, state representative[10]
- Donna Bailey, state representative[10]
- Pinny Beebe-Center, state representative[10]
- Seth Berry, state representative[10]
- Cathy Breen, state senator[10]
- Jennie Butler, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Justin Chenette, state senator[10]
- Ben Chipman, state senator[10]
- Janice Cooper, state representative[10]
- Diane Denk, member of the Democratic National Committee, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Dale Denno, state representative[10]
- Dave Durrell, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Richard Farnsworth, state representative[10]
- Ryan Fecteau, state representative[10]
- Anne Gass, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Geoffrey Gratwick, state senator[10]
- Henry Ingwersen, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Troy Jackson, state senator, Senate Minority Leader[7]
- Erik Jorgensen, state representative[10]
- Tori Kornfield, state representative[10]
- William Lippincott, candidate for State Senate[10]
- Thomas Longstaff, state representative[10]
- Anne-Marie Mastraccio, state representative[10]
- Chloe Maxmin, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Andrew McLean, state representative[10]
- Jay McCreight, state representative[10]
- Jeremy Mele, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Michele Meyer, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Rebecca Millett, state senator[10]
- David Miramant, state senator[10]
- Kimberly Monaghan, state representative[10]
- Matt Moonen, state representative[10]
- Victoria Morales, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Patricia Nobel, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Jennifer Parker, state representative[10]
- Ann Peoples, former state representative, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Teresa Pierce, state representative[10]
- Lois Galgay Reckitt, state representative[10]
- Tina Riley, state representative[10]
- Tiffany Roberts-Lovell, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Deane Rykerson, state representative[10]
- Heather Sanborn, state representative, candidate for State Senate[10]
- Linda Sanborn, former state representative, candidate for State Senate[10]
- Robert Saucier, candidate for State House of Representatives[10]
- Denise Tepler, state representative[10]
- Maureen Terry, state representative[10]
- Eloise Vitelli, state senator[10]
- Charlotte Warren, state representative[10]
- Organizations
- Alliance for Retired Americans[8]
- End Citizens United[9]
- EqualityMaine[10][8]
- Human Rights Campaign[8]
- Planned Parenthood[8]
- Sierra Club[8]
- Trade Unions
- AFL-CIO[8]
- Laborers' International Union of North America[8]
- Maine State Council of Machinists[8]
- Maine State Employees Association[8]
- Media
- Bangor Daily News[11]
- Kennebec Journal[12]
- Portland Phoenix[71]
- Portland Press Herald[13]
}}{{Endorsements box | title=Mark Holbrook | list =- Individuals
- Daniel Davey, former Knox County Sheriff[73]
- Carly Fiorina, candidate for President of the United States in 2016 US presidential election, candidate for US Senate from California in 2010[14]
- Paula G. Sutton, candidate for State House of Representatives[14]
- Organizations
- Christian Civic League of Maine[14]
- Gun Owners of Maine[14]
- National Right to Life Committee[14]
- National Rifle Association[14]
}}{{Endorsements box | title = Marty Grohman | list =- Local and statewide politicians
- Linda Baker, former state senator (R-Topsham)[6]
- Kerri Bickford, former state representative (R-Topsham)[6]
- Joe Bruno, former state representative and former House Minority Leader (R-Raymond)[6]
- Pamela Cahill, former state representative, former state senator, former Senate Minority Leader, (R-Woolwich) Republican candidate for Governor of Maine in 1994 former chair of the Maine Republican Party[6]
- Alan Casavant, Mayor of Biddeford, former state representative (Democrat)[15]
- Mark Ellis, former chair of the Maine Republican Party[6]
- Karen Gerrish, state representative (R-Lebanon)[6]
- Jon Kinney, state representative (R-Limington)[6]
- Brian Langley, state senator (R-Ellsworth)[6]
- Paul LePage, incumbent governor of Maine (Republican)[16]
- Don Marean, state representative (R-Hollis)[6]
- Les Otten, Republican candidate for Governor of Maine in 2010[6]
- Tony Payne, former Maine Republican Party Executive Director[6]
- David Rollins, Mayor of Augusta (Democrat)[15]
- Tom Saviello, state senator (R-Farmington)[6]
- Mary Small, former state representative, former state senator, former Senate Minority Leader (R-Bath)[6]
- Ande Smith, Republican candidate for this seat in 2016[6]
- Meredith Strang Burgess, former state representative (R-Cumberland)[6]
- Karen Vachon, state representative (R-Scarborough)[6]
- Amy Volk, state senator, Majority Whip (R-Scarborough)[15]
- Nathan Wadsworth, state representative (R-Hiram)[6]
- Karl Ward, state representative (R-Dedham)[6]
- Mark Walker, Mayor of Hallowell (Republican)[6]
- David Woodsome, state senator (R-Waterboro)[6]
- Other individuals
- Ben Gilman, John McCain presidential campaign, 2008 Maine state director, former staffer for Olympia Snowe[17]
- Christie-Lee McNally, Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016 Maine state director[17]
- Ray Richardson, right-wing talk radio host[17]
- Organizations
- Sportsman's Alliance of Maine[18]
- Unite America[19]
- US Chamber of Commerce[20]
}}General electionPolling Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chellie Pingree (D) | Mark Holbrook (R) | Marty Grohman (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|
[https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-ct-me-nh-two-house-races-play-potential-gubernatorial-upset#.W9nlUnpKjOQ Emerson College] | October 27–29, 2018 | 442 | ± 4.9% | 56% | 31% | – | 7% | 6% | [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf Pan Atlantic Research] | October 1–7, 2018 | 249 | – | 53% | 29% | 11% | – | 7% |
Results{{Election box begin no change | title = Maine's 1st congressional district, 2018[21] }}{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change | candidate = Chellie Pingree (incumbent) | party = Democratic Party (United States) | votes = 201,195 | percentage = 58.8 }}{{Election box candidate with party link no change | candidate = Mark Holbrook | party = Republican Party (United States) | votes = 111,188 | percentage = 32.5 }}{{Election box candidate with party link no change | candidate = Marty Grohman | party = Independent (United States) | votes = 29,670 | percentage = 8.7 }}{{Election box total no change | votes = 342,053 | percentage = 100.0 }}{{Election box hold with party link no change |winner = Democratic Party (United States) }}{{Election box end}}District 2{{see also|Maine's 2nd congressional district}}Bruce Poliquin, the incumbent representative for the second district, defeated Democrat Emily Cain in the 2016 election in a rematch of the 2014 election where Poliquin was first elected. Poliquin ran for the Republican nomination unopposed. Cain did not challenge Poliquin again, instead taking a job with the progressive group Emily's List. Initially, six candidates filed for the Democratic nomination — United States Postal Service employee and activist Phil Cleaves, carpenter and former Maine State Senate candidate Jonathan Fulford, Assistant Majority Leader of the State House of Representatives Jared Golden, shopkeeper and former chair of the Isleboro Board of Selectmen Craig Olson, businessman and former State Senate candidate Tim Rich, and conservationist Lucas St. Clair. Cleaves, Rich and Fulford dropped out at various points in the campaign, though Fulford's withdrawal happened too late for his name to be removed from the primary ballot. Several candidates received prominent endorsements; St. Clair was endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters and California Congressman Jared Huffman, Fulford by the left-wing group Our Revolution prior to his withdrawal from the race, and Golden by VoteVets, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton and over two dozen members of the Maine Legislature. Golden defeated St. Clair and Olson on the second ballot after ranked choice voting. In addition, two third-party candidates announced their candidacies for the seat: Houlton Band of Maliseets State Representative Henry John Bear of the Maine Green Independent Party and Brian Kresge of the Libertarian Party. Bear, a former Democrat, left the party due to its stance on water rights for Maine's native people. He failed to qualify for the ballot. Kresge, a veteran and writer, withdrew from the race to run for a seat in the State House of Representatives. Neither the Libertarians nor Green Independents had a candidate on the ballot. Two independent candidates qualified for the ballot: Tiffany Bond, an attorney from Portland (a city outside of the second district), and Will Hoar, a schoolteacher. Democratic primaryCandidatesDeclared- Jared Golden, Assistant Majority Leader of the Maine House of Representatives[22][23]
- Craig Olson, former chair of the Islesboro Board of Selectmen[24]
- Lucas St. Clair, conservationist, restaurateur, and son of Roxanne Quimby[25]
Withdrawn- Phil Cleaves, United States Postal Service employee[26]
- Jonathan Fulford, farmer, carpenter, and two-time Maine Senate candidate[27][28]
- Tim Rich, businessman[29]
Declined- Troy Jackson, Minority Leader of the Maine Senate and candidate for this seat in 2014[30]
- Ben Sprague, Bangor City Councilor[22][23]
Endorsements{{Endorsements box | title = Jonathan Fulford (withdrawn) | list =- Individuals
- Ben Chin, Democratic nominee for Mayor of Lewiston, 2015 and 2017[31]
- Organizations
}}{{Endorsements box | title = Jared Golden | list =- State and local politicians
- Robert Alley, State Representative[124]
- Betty Austin, state representative[124]
- Heidi Brooks, state representative[124]
- Barbara Cardone, state representative[124]
- Michael E. Carpenter, State Senator and former Maine Attorney General[33]
- Robert Duchesne, state representative[33]
- Michelle Dunphy, state representative[33]
- Jessica L. Fay, state representative[33]
- Aaron Frey, state representative[33]
- Roger Fuller, state representative[33]
- Sara Gideon, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives[134]
- Gay Grant, state representative[33]
- James R. Handy, state representative[33]
- Brian Hubbell, state representative[33]
- Victoria Kornfield, state representative[33]
- Walter Kumiega, state representative[33]
- Nate Libby, state senator[33]
- Louis Luchini, state representative[33]
- Colleen Madigan, state representative[33]
- John Madigan, state representative[33]
- Danny Martin, state representative[33]
- John L. Martin, state representative, former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives[33]
- David McCrea, state representative[33]
- Gina Melaragno, state representative[33]
- Catherine Nadeau, state representative[33]
- Anne Perry, state representative[33]
- Christina "Tina" Riley, state representative[33]
- John Schneck, state representative[33]
- Bettyann Sheats, state representative[33]
- Stephen Stanley, state representative[33]
- Ryan Tipping, state representative[33]
- Stanley Paige Zeigler, state representative[33]
- Other individuals
- Amy Fried, political scientist[34]
- Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative (D–MA)[35]
- Local Democratic organizations
- Androscoggin County Democratic Party[29]
- Lewiston Democratic Party[36][37][29]
- National organizations
- American Association for Justice[33]
- Common Defense[33]
- Committee for an Effective Congress[33]
- Congressional Progressive Caucus[38]
- End Citizens United[33]
- VoteVets.org[33]
- Tech Solidarity[33]
- Local and statewide organizations
- Maine People's Alliance[39]
- Trade Unions
- BMDA, Local 3999, United Auto Workers[33]
- IAM Local S7 Shipyard Communicator[33]
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers[33]
- International Association of Fire Fighters[33]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 2327[33]
- Maine AFL-CIO[40]
- Maine State Council of Machinists[33]
- Maine Trial Lawyers Association[33]
- National Nurses United[41]
- Professional Firefighters of Maine[33]
- United Steelworkers District 4[33]
}}{{Endorsements box | title = Lucas St. Clair | list =- Individuals
- Jared Huffman, congressman for California's 2nd congressional district[42]
- Tim Rich, businessman, former candidate for ME-02 in 2018[43]
- Organizations
- League of Conservation Voters[44]
- Newspapers
}} Polling Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV round | Jonathan Fulford | Jared Golden | Craig Olson | Lucas St. Clair | Other | Undecided | Survey USA (with RCV) | April 26-May 1, 2018 | 217 LV | ± 7.2% | Round 1 | 17% | 22% | 5% | 25% | - | 31% | Round 2 | 27% | 35% | - | 38% | - | | Round 3 | - | 49% | - | 51% | - | [https://ru.scribd.com/document/361321834/Global-Strategy-Group-Maine-2nd-District-Poll Global Strategy Group] | October 2–5, 2017 | 300 | ± 5.7% | N/A | - | 8% | - | 40% | 7% | 45% | |
Fundraising(Through March 31, 2017)[46] - Jared Golden: $618,380.33
- Lucas St. Clair: $424,958.42
- Jonathan Fulford (withdrawn): $166,989.79
- Craig Olson: $100,299.00
- Tim Rich (withdrawn): $72,197.20
- Emily Cain (not running): $24,692.88
ResultsDemocratic primary results[47] | Party | Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 |
---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % |
---|
| Democratic | Jared Golden | 20,987 | 46.4% | +2,624 | 23,611 | 52.2% | 54.3% | | Democratic | Lucas St. Clair | 17,742 | 39.2% | +2,111 | 19,853 | 43.9% | 45.7% | | Democratic | Craig Olson | 3,993 | 8.8% | -3,993 | Eliminated | | Democratic | Jonathan Fulford | 2,489 | 5.5% | -2,489 | Eliminated | Total active votes | 45,211 | 100% | 43,464 | 100.0% | Exhausted ballots | - | +1,747 | 1,747 | 3.9% | Total votes | 45,211 | 100% | 45,211 | 100.0% |
Republican primaryDeclared- Bruce Poliquin, incumbent U.S. representative[48]
Results{{Election box begin no change | title = Republican primary results }}{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change | candidate = Bruce Poliquin (incumbent) | party = Republican Party (United States) | votes = 43,047 | percentage = 83.9 }}{{Election box total no change | votes = 43,047 | percentage = 100.0 }}{{Election box end}}Green primaryFailed to make the ballot- Henry John Bear, state representative for Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians[49]
Libertarian primaryWithdrawn- Brian Kresge, writer (running for State House)
Independent candidates- Tiffany Bond, attorney[50]
- Will Hoar, schoolteacher[50]
General electionAll candidates except for Poliquin said they would abide by the results of ranked choice voting, and all candidates except for Poliquin said they would make second and third choices when they vote. Poliquin said he would only cast a first round vote for himself, stating that he felt no one but him is qualified for the seat.[51] Poliquin filed a lawsuit in federal court on November 13, seeking an order to halt the second round tabulation of ballots and declare ranked choice voting to be against the United States Constitution.[52] Poliquin requested a recount of the ballots just before the deadline of November 26.[53] After several days of counting with the result not being significantly changed, Poliquin ended the recount after incurring $15,000 in fees.[194] Poliquin's request for an injunction to halt the ranked choice voting process was rejected, shortly before Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap announced Jared Golden as the winner. Poliquin stated that his lawsuit would continue[54] and asked Judge Lance Walker, the judge hearing his lawsuit, to order a new election be held should he decline to hold ranked choice voting unconstitutional.[55] Judge Walker ruled against Poliquin on December 13, rejecting all of his arguments.[56] Poliquin appealed to the Court of Appeals in Boston and requested an order to prevent Golden from being certified as the winner, but that request was rejected.[57] On December 24, Poliquin dropped his lawsuit, allowing Golden to take the seat.[58][59][60][61] Gov. Paul LePage, as one of his last acts in office, reluctantly initialed the certificate of election for Golden, adding the words "stolen election" to it to express his opposition to ranked choice voting. [62] Endorsements{{Endorsements box |title = Jared Golden |list =- National politicians
- Joe Biden, former Vice President of the United States[63]
- Barack Obama, former President of the United States [64]
- Seth Moulton, Representative for Massachusetts's 6th Congressional district[33]
- Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator (D-HI)[65]
- Local and statewide politicians
- Robert Alley, State Representative[33]
- Betty Austin, state representative[33]
- Heidi Brooks, state representative[33]
- Barbara Cardone, state representative[33]
- Michael E. Carpenter, State Senator and former Maine Attorney General[33]
- Robert Duchesne, state representative[33]
- Michelle Dunphy, state representative[33]
- Jessica L. Fay, state representative[33]
- Aaron Frey, state representative[33]
- Roger Fuller, state representative[33]
- Sara Gideon, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives[66]
- Gay Grant, state representative[33]
- James R. Handy, state representative[33]
- Brian Hubbell, state representative[33]
- Victoria Kornfield, state representative[33]
- Walter Kumiega, state representative[33]
- Nate Libby, state senator[33]
- Louis Luchini, state representative[33]
- Colleen Madigan, state representative[33]
- John Madigan, state representative[33]
- Danny Martin, state representative[33]
- John L. Martin, state representative, former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives[33]
- David McCrea, state representative[33]
- Gina Melaragno, state representative[33]
- Catherine Nadeau, state representative[33]
- Anne Perry, state representative[33]
- Christina "Tina" Riley, state representative[33]
- Tom Saviello, state senator (Republican)[67][236]
- John Schneck, state representative[33]
- Bettyann Sheats, state representative[33]
- Stephen Stanley, state representative[33]
- Ryan Tipping, state representative[33]
- Stanley Paige Zeigler, state representative[33]
- Individuals
- Amy Fried, political scientist[68]
- Stephen King, author[69]
- Martin Sheen, actor[70]
- Trade unions
- Maine AFL-CIO[33]
- National Nurses United[33]
- United Steelworkers[33]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers[33]
- Professional Firefighters of Maine[33]
- International Association of Fire Fighters[33]
- Organizations
- End Citizens United[33]
- League of Conservation Voters [71]
- Maine People's Alliance[72]
- MoveOn.org[73]
- Sierra Club[74]
- VoteVets[33]
- Media
- Bangor Daily News[75]
- Kennebec Journal[12]
- Portland Phoenix[76]
- Portland Press Herald[13]
}}{{Endorsements box | title = Bruce Poliquin | list =- National politicians
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[77]
- Local and statewide politicians
- Susan Collins, US Senator (R-ME)[78]
- Organizations
- US Chamber of Commerce[79]
- America First Action[80]
- Sportsman's Alliance of Maine[81]
- National Rifle Association[82]
}}Polling Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV round | Bruce Poliquin (R) | Jared Golden (D) | Tiffany Bond (I) | Will Hoar (I) | Other | Undecided | [https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-ct-me-nh-two-house-races-play-potential-gubernatorial-upset#.W9nlUnpKjOQ Emerson College] | October 27–29, 2018 | 441 | ± 4.9% | – | 46% | 47% | – | – | 3% | 4% | [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-me02-3.html NYT Upshot/Siena College] | October 15–18, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.8% | – | 41% | 41% | – | – | – | 15% | Global Strategy Group (D) | October 9–12, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | – | 42% | 48% | – | – | – | 10% | [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf Pan Atlantic Research] | October 1–7, 2018 | 251 | – | – | 37% | 37% | 6% | 3% | – | 17% | [https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/ME02P1release_final.pdf NYT Upshot/Siena College] | September 12–14, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.8% | – | 47% | 42% | – | – | – | 11% | [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20180917_ME.pdf The Mellman Group (D-Golden)] | September 4–7, 2018 | – | ± 4.9% | – | 46% | 54% | – | – | – | – | [https://www.scribd.com/document/385376375/ME-02 The Mellman Group (D-Golden)] | July 25–30, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Round 1 | 40% | 39% | 3% | 1% | – | 16% | Round 2 | 48% | 48% | 4% | – | – | – | Round 3 | 49% | 51% | – | – | – |
Hypothetical polling | Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bruce Poliquin (R) | Lucas St. Clair (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|
[https://ru.scribd.com/document/361321834/Global-Strategy-Group-Maine-2nd-District-Poll Global Strategy Group] | October 2–5, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 41% | — | — |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bruce Poliquin (R) | Democratic candidate | Other | Undecided |
---|
[https://www.scribd.com/document/372045886/House-PPP-for-Patriot-Majority-D-Feb-2018 PPP/Patriot Majority USA] | February 12–13, 2018 | 628 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 45% | – | 11% | [https://www.scribd.com/document/361433710/House-PPP-polls-for-Patriot-Majority-2-Oct-2017 PPP/Patriot Majority USA] | October 5–8, 2017 | 951 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 45% | – | 11% | {{Election box end}} Predictions Source | Ranking | As of | The Cook Political Report[83] | Toss-up | October 3, 2018 | Inside Elections[84] | Toss-up | September 28, 2018 | Sabato's Crystal Ball[85] | Toss-up | October 4, 2018 | Daily Kos[86] | Toss-up | September 28, 2018 | Fox News[87] | Toss-up | September 21, 2018 | CNN[88] | Toss-up | October 2, 2018 | RealClearPolitics[89] | Toss-up | September 21, 2018 | The New York Times[90] | Toss-up | September 26, 2018 | Politico[91] | Toss-up | September 21, 2018 |
ResultsMaine's 2nd congressional district, 2018 results[92] | Party | Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 |
---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % |
---|
| Democratic | Jared Golden | 132,013 | 45.6% | + 10,427 | 142,440 | 49.18% | 50.62% | | Republican | Bruce Poliquin (incumbent) | 134,184 | 46.3% | + 4,747 | 138,931 | 47.97% | 49.38% | | Independent | Tiffany Bond | 16,552 | 5.7% | - 16,552 | Eliminated | | Independent | Will Hoar | 6,875 | 2.4% | - 6,875 | Eliminated | Total active votes | 289,624 | 100% |
| 281,371 | 100% | Exhausted ballots | - | +8,253 | 8,253 | 2.85% | Total votes | 289,624 | 100% |
| 289,624 | 100% |
Poliquin led on first preferences with 46.4% to Golden's 45.6% and 8.1% for the two independents. However, as no candidate had a majority of the votes, the votes cast for the two independents were redistributed between Poliquin and Golden (those that didn't give a preference for either of the candidates were exhausted) and Golden won the election. The reason both independents were eliminated in a single round, as opposed to only the 4th place candidate, was because of the mathematical impossibility of the 3rd place candidate moving into 2nd place even if they had received all of the 4th place candidate's redistributed votes. Of the votes left in the count Golden won with 50.62% of the vote to Poliquin's 49.38%. Including exhausted votes the final count was Golden 49.2%, Poliquin 48.0% and 2.8% exhausted. The votes for the two independents were redistributed as follows: 44.5% went to Golden, 20.3% to Poliquin, and 35.2% were exhausted votes (i.e., they didn't give a preference to either of the remaining candidates). See also- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
References1. ^{{cite news|title=Maine became the first state in the country Tuesday to pass ranked choice voting|url=https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/11/10/maine-became-the-first-state-in-the-country-to-pass-ranked-choice-voting|accessdate=17 November 2016|newspaper=Boston Globe|date=10 November 2016}} 2. ^{{cite news|title=Maine Voters Overrule Their Leaders|url=https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/06/maine-lepage-ranked-choice-voting/562871/|accessdate=24 June 2018|newspaper=The Atlantic|date= 15 June 2018}} 3. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article213587154.html|title=Ranked-choice voting fans hope Maine's experiment pays off|date=21 June 2018}} 4. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.pressherald.com/2018/05/29/grohman-makes-the-ballot-as-an-independent-in-race-for-maines-1st-congressional-district/|title=State lawmaker submits enough signatures to challenge Rep. 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The Chamber represents 3 million business worldwide and its message is clear: if you’re interested in building Maine’s economy, the choice in this election is crystal clear. #fixnotfight #mepolitics |author=Marty Grohman |date=October 10, 2018}} 21. ^ https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/2018/rep-cd1-11-6-18.xlsx 22. ^1 {{cite web|url=http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/democrats-bruce-poliquin-maine-native|title=Democrats Eyeing Maine Natives to Unseat Bruce Poliquin|work=Roll Call|last=Pathé|first=Simone|date=July 20, 2017|accessdate=July 20, 2017}} 23. ^1 {{cite web|url=https://bangordailynews.com/2017/07/24/politics/this-marine-veteran-from-lewiston-may-challenge-poliquin/|title=National Democrats recruit a Marine born in Maine to challenge Poliquin|work=Bangor Daily News|last=Shepherd|first=Michael|date=July 24, 2017|accessdate=July 27, 2017}} 24. ^{{Cite news |url=https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/91410-2 |title=At the Races: As Goes Maine, So Goes ... |last=Roll Call Staff |date=August 25, 2017 |work=Roll Call |access-date=October 12, 2017}} 25. ^{{cite web|url=http://mainepublic.org/post/lucas-st-clair-says-hes-running-congress-shaking-democratic-primary-field#stream/0|title=Lucas St. Clair Says He's Running for Congress, Shaking Up Democratic Primary Field|work=MPBN|last=Bukaty|first=Robert|date=October 2, 2017|accessdate=October 2, 2017}} 26. ^http://www.sunjournal.com/democratic-2nd-district-congressional-race-heats-up/ 27. ^{{cite web|url=http://bangordailynews.com/2017/07/19/politics/third-democrat-jumps-into-race-to-oust-bruce-poliquin/|title=Third Democrat jumps into race to oust Bruce Poliquin|work=Bangor Daily News|last=Cousins|first=Christopher|date=July 19, 2017|accessdate=July 20, 2017}} 28. ^{{Cite tweet |number=991064726028324871 |user=PatCallaghan6 |title=One of the Dems running in CD-2 has quit the race. Release from Jonathan Fulford campaign says "Today, I suspended my campaign for personal reasons. I regret the necessity and will not be taking questions at this time." #mepolitics |author=Pat Callaghan |date=April 30, 2018}} 29. ^1 2 http://www.sunjournal.com/congressional-contender-tim-rich-alleges-rigged-game-in-democratic-primary/ 30. ^https://secure.mainecampaignfinance.com/PublicSite/SearchPages/FilingAmendmentSelect.aspx?FilingID=166867 31. ^http://www.sunjournal.com/democratic-2nd-district-congressional-race-heats-up/ 32. ^{{cite tweet |user=ourrevolution |number= 990666792384286722 |date=April 29, 2018 |title= We're proud to endorse @fulfordformaine to represent the people of Maine's 2nd district. Jonathan will fight to get big money out of politics and to make sure corporations pay their fair share in taxes. ourrev.us/jonathan-fulfo… |link= https://twitter.com/OurRevolution/status/990666792384286722}} 33. ^1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com/endorsements/ 34. ^{{Cite tweet |number=999695344685453319 |user=ASFried |title=Am endorsing Golden for the nomination He's accomplished the most and done so in a divided legislature with a GOP governor, and did so after serving his country in the military and working in DC for a U.S. senator. All the Dems have better policies than Poliquin. #mepolitics |author=Amy Fried |date=May 24, 2018}} 35. ^{{Cite news |url=http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/30/politics/seth-moulton-democratic-house-candidates/index.html |title=Rep. Seth Moulton's plan to overhaul House Democrats with a 'new generation of leaders' |last=Bradner |first=Eric |date=November 30, 2017 |work=CNN |access-date=December 4, 2017}} 36. ^https://www.facebook.com/notes/lewiston-democratic-party/lewiston-democratic-party-unanimously-votes-to-endorse-jared-golden-for-congress/10155268669178369/ 37. ^https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/913801719699660805 38. ^{{Cite tweet |number=1003702767125516288 |user=electprogress |title=Jared Golden in #ME02 @golden4congress |author=Progressive Caucus |date=June 4, 2018}} 39. ^{{Cite news |url=http://mainebeacon.com/maine-peoples-alliance-endorses-jared-golden-in-high-stakes-cd-2-race/ |title=Maine People’s Alliance endorses Jared Golden in ‘high stakes’ CD-2 race |last=Neumann |first=Dan |date=June 7, 2018 |work=Maine Beacon |access-date=June 9, 2018}} 40. ^{{Cite tweet |number=994337915516964866 |user=golden4congress |title=Proud to be .@MEAFLCIO endorsed! #labor #unions #Democrats |author=Jared Golden |date=May 9, 2018}} 41. ^{{Cite tweet |number=997571482346700800 |user=NationalNurses |title=NNU is proud to endorse Jared Golden @golden4congress for Congress in ME-02. Nurses are on #TeamGolden because Jared stands with labor and will work for #MedicareForAll! |date=May 18, 2018}} 42. ^{{Cite tweet |number=1006629245806960641 |user=AnthonyEmerso14 |title=At the 11th hour, @JaredHuffman endorses @Lucasstclair #mepolitics |author=Anthony Emerson |date=June 12, 2018}} 43. ^{{Cite news |url=http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2018/02/26/dropouts-straw-polls-hint-at-who-to-take-seriously-in-crowded-maine-governors-race/|title=Dropouts, straw polls hint at who to take seriously in crowded Maine governor’s race|last=Shepherd |first=Michael|date=November 30, 2017 |work=Bangor Daily News |access-date=February 27, 2018}} 44. ^{{Cite web |url=https://www.lcv.org/article/lcv-action-fund-endorses-lucas-st-clair-congress/ |title=LCV ACTION FUND ENDORSES LUCAS ST. CLAIR FOR CONGRESS |last=Auster |first=Craig |date=January 29, 2018 |website=LCV.org |access-date=April 25, 2018}} 45. ^{{Cite news |url=https://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/24/opinion/editorials/st-clairs-monument-work-gives-him-edge-in-2nd-district-democratic-primary/ |title=St. Clair’s monument work gives him edge in 2nd District Democratic primary |date=May 24, 2018 |work=Bangor Daily News |access-date=May 24, 2018}} 46. ^https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/ME/02/2018/ 47. ^https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/results18.html#nonrank 48. ^http://www.sunjournal.com/bruce-poliquin-has-almost-2-million-in-campaign-cash-far-more-than-opponents/ 49. ^http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/index.html 50. ^1 {{Cite tweet |number=1009595368881913856 |user=TiffanyBond |title=#mepolitics, Our #ME02 ballot is set. @tiffanybond @RepPoliquin @golden4congress @willhoar I look forward to competition that brings out the best in us. Pick the person who will make functional, humane law for rural Maine. Gentlemen, be kind and wise in your campaigns. |date=June 12, 2018}} 51. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.centralmaine.com/2018/10/22/poliquin-indicates-he-might-challenge-election-results-if-he-doesnt-win/|title=Poliquin indicates he might challenge ranked-choice results if he doesn’t win|work=Kennebec Journal|last=Collins|first=Steve|date=October 23, 2018|accessdate=October 22, 2018}} 52. ^https://www.npr.org/2018/11/13/667435326/facing-defeat-maine-republican-sues-to-block-states-ranked-choice-voting-law 53. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/local/poliquin-campaign-asks-for-cd2-recount/617810785|title=Poliquin campaign asks for CD2 recount|work=WCSH|date=November 26, 2018|accessdate=November 26, 2018}} 54. ^https://wgme.com/news/local/judge-denies-polquins-request-to-stop-rank-choice-voting-process 55. ^https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/local/rcv-fight-poliquin-calls-for-new-election-if-judge-does-not-rule-against-ranked-choice/97-618377856 56. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.sunjournal.com/2018/12/13/federal-court-rules-against-bruce-poliquins-challenge-of-ranked-choice-voting/|title=Federal court rules against Bruce Poliquin's challenge of ranked-choice voting|last=Collins|first=Steve|last2=Journal|first2=Sun|date=2018-12-13|website=Lewiston Sun Journal|access-date=2018-12-19}} 57. ^1 {{Cite web|url=http://www.mainepublic.org/post/appellate-court-denies-poliquins-request-block-certification-2nd-district-election|title=Poliquin's Request To Block Certification Of 2nd District Election|last=Mistler|first=Steve|website=mainepublic.org|access-date=2018-12-21}} 58. ^{{Cite news|url=https://www.pressherald.com/2018/12/24/poliquin-drops-legal-challenge-to-ranked-choice-voting/|title=Poliquin drops challenge to ranked-choice voting, clearing way for Golden to take seat in Congress|last=Murphy|first=Edward|date=2018-12-24|work=The Portland Press Herald|access-date=2018-12-25}} 59. ^{{Cite news|url=https://www.wmtw.com/article/bruce-poliquin-ends-ranked-choice-voting-lawsuits/25672137|title=Poliquin ends ranked-choice voting lawsuit|last=|first=|date=2018-12-24|work=WMTW News 8|access-date=2018-12-25}} 60. ^{{Cite news|url=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/gop-lawmaker-drops-challenge-to-maines-ranked-choice-voting|title=GOP lawmaker drops challenge to Maine's ranked-choice voting|last=Chaitin|first=Daniel|date=2018-12-24|work=The Washington Examiner|access-date=2018-12-25}} 61. ^{{Cite news|url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422786-gop-lawmaker-to-drop-challenge-to-maines-new-voting-system-concede-election|title=GOP lawmaker to drop challenge to Maine's new voting system|last=Burke|first=Michael|date=2018-12-24|work=The Hill|access-date=2018-12-25}} 62. ^{{Cite news|url=http://www.mainepublic.org/post/lepage-begrudgingly-certifies-results-2nd-congressional-district-race|title=LePage Begrudgingly Certifies Results Of 2nd Congressional District Race|last=Mistler|first=Steve|date=2018-12-29|work=MPBN|access-date=2018-12-29}} 63. ^{{Cite tweet |number=1052646385265377281 |user=golden4congress |title=I am honored to receive the endorsement of Vice President Joe Biden #ME02 #mepolitics |author=Jared Golden |date=October 17, 2018}} 64. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.pressherald.com/2018/10/01/obama-endorses-golden-in-2nd-district-race/|title=Obama endorses Democrat Jared Golden in bid to unseat Poliquin in 2nd District|work=Portland Press Herald|author=Noel Gallagher |date=October 1, 2018 |accessdate= October 28, 2018}} 65. ^{{cite web|url=https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1041342872849711104|title=I’m giving to @golden4congress please feel free to join me and send help too. Thank you.|work=Twitter|author=Brian Schatz}} 66. ^1 {{Cite news |url=https://www.centralmaine.com/2018/03/08/sara-gideon-why-i-support-jared-golden/ |title=Sara Gideon: Why I support Jared Golden |last=Gideon |first=Sara |date=March 8, 2018 |work=Kennebec Journal & Morning Sentinel |access-date=March 12, 2018}} 67. ^{{Cite tweet |number=1031532344103108609 |user=ASFried |title=I didn't know that GOP Sen. Saviello is backing Golden. Perhaps they'll be a Republicans for Golden group. #mepolitics https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-look-to-flip-new-englands-one-gop-house-seat-1534757401 … |author=Fried, Amy |date=August 20, 2018}} 68. ^{{Cite tweet |number=999695344685453319 |user=ASFried |title=Am endorsing Golden for the nomination He's accomplished the most and done so in a divided legislature with a GOP governor, and did so after serving his country in the military and working in DC for a U.S. senator. All the Dems have better policies than Poliquin. #mepolitics |author=Amy Fried |date=May 24, 2018}} 69. ^{{Cite tweet |number=1031293660552462343 |user=StephenKing |title=https://youtu.be/SVKcHMCh1EQ This is the guy running in Maine's 2nd district against NRA sweetheart Bruce Poliquin. |author=King, Stephen |date=August 19, 2018}} 70. ^{{Cite tweet |number=1059509077481537537 |user=AnthonyEmerso14 |title=Jed Bartlet himself, Martin Sheen, is backing @golden4congress #MEPolitics |author=Emerson, Anthony |date=November 5, 2018}} 71. ^{{cite web|title=LCV Action Fund Endorses Jared Golden for Congress|url=https://www.lcv.org/article/lcv-action-fund-endorses-jared-golden-congress/|website=League of Conservation Voters|date=August 29, 2018}} 72. ^{{Cite news |url=http://mainebeacon.com/maine-peoples-alliance-endorses-jared-golden-in-high-stakes-cd-2-race/ |title=Maine People’s Alliance endorses Jared Golden in ‘high stakes’ CD-2 race |last=Neumann |first=Dan |date=June 7, 2018 |work=Maine Beacon |access-date=June 9, 2018}} 73. ^{{Cite web |url=https://candidates.moveon.org/profile-jared-golden/ |title=Jared Golden - Candidate Profile - MoveOn.org |website=MoveOn.org}} 74. ^{{cite web|url=https://content.sierraclub.org/voterguide/endorsements|title=Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements|publisher=}} 75. ^{{Cite web | url=https://bangordailynews.com/2018/10/18/opinion/editorials/golden-will-represent-the-2nd-districts-interests-not-a-radical-agenda/?amp&__twitter_impression=true | title=Golden Will Represent 2nd District's Interests, Not a "Radical" Agenda | date=October 18, 2018}} 76. ^1 {{Cite web | url= https://www.conwaydailysun.com/portland_phoenix/news/features/time-to-vote-phoenix-endorsements-for-tuesday-s-elections/article_81f6ae02-dd50-11e8-a505-bbadbfe8a763.html | title= It's Time To Vote: Phoenix Endorsements for the 2018 Elections | date=November 1, 2018 | website=ConwayDailySun.com | access-date=November 1, 2018}} 77. ^{{Cite tweet |number=1055559438977900544 |user=realDonaldTrump |title=.@BrucePoliquin from Maine is a great Congressman. He is in a tough fight against a very liberal Nancy Pelosi Democrat. Bruce has helped bring JOBS back to his State and totally protects your Great Second Amendment. We need to keep Bruce in Washington. He has my Full Endorsement! |author=Trump, Donald |date=October 25, 2018}} 78. ^1 {{Cite news |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-look-to-flip-new-englands-one-gop-house-seat-1534757401 |title=Democrats Look to Flip New England’s One GOP House Seat |last=Kamp |first=Jon |date=August 20, 2018 |work=Wall Street Journal |access-date=August 20, 2018 |archive-url=https://archive.is/I0gcx#selection-2351.0-2362.0 |archive-date=August 20, 2018}} 79. ^{{Cite tweet |number=1034486449461256194 |user=SteveCollinsSJ |title=The @USChamber is weighing in with a new tv ad touting @RepPoliquin for his fight against tariffs that it says would hurt Maine exporters. Watch it here: https://youtu.be/3EvFzBAEonQ #mepolitics |author=Collins, Steve |date=August 28, 2018}} 80. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.sunjournal.com/pro-trump-super-pac-to-spend-1-million-to-help-bruce-poliquin/|title=Pro-Trump Super PAC to spend $1 million to help Bruce Poliquin|work=Lewiston Sun Journal|last=Collins|first=Steve|date=August 24, 2018}} 81. ^{{cite web|url=https://twitter.com/BrucePoliquin/status/1039245504461385728|title=JUST IN: The Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine recognizes my hard work on behalf of Maine’s sportsmen and women. I have long fought for Maine’s strong traditional outdoor heritage and I will continue to do so as our Congressman. I appreciate their endorsement and support. #mepolitics|work=Twitter|author=Bruce Poliquin}} 82. ^{{cite web|url=https://www.nraila.org/articles/20180920/nra-endorses-poliquin-in-the-2nd-congressional-district-of-maine|title=NRA Endorses Poliquin in the 2nd Congressional District of Maine|work=NRA-ILA|date=September 20, 2018}} 83. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings|title=2018 House Race Ratings {{!}} The Cook Political Report|website=The Cook Political Report|language=en|access-date=2017-08-13}} 84. ^{{Cite web|url=https://insideelections.com/ratings/house|title=House Ratings {{!}} Inside Elections|website=insideelections.com|language=en|access-date=2018-08-18}} 85. ^{{Cite web|url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house|title=2018 House|website=www.centerforpolitics.org|language=en-US|access-date=2017-08-13}} 86. ^{{Cite web|url=https://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2018/office/house|title=Daily Kos: House 2018|date=September 28, 2018|website=Daily Kos|access-date=October 5, 2018}} 87. ^{{Cite news|url=http://www.foxnews.com/politics/midterms-2018.html|title=Fox News Midterms 2018 America's Election HQ|work=Fox News|access-date=2018-08-18|language=en-US}} 88. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/29/politics/cnn-house-race-ratings-100-days/index.html|title=CNN Key Races: Path to House majority comes into focus as a dozen races move toward Democrats|language=en-US|access-date=2018-07-30}} 89. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html|title=RealClearPolitics - 2018 Election Maps - Battle for the House 2018|website=www.realclearpolitics.com|access-date=2018-08-18}} 90. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/house-race-ratings.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage|title=Elections 2018: Tracking the House Races to Watch in the 2018 Midterm Elections|language=en-US|access-date=2018-08-13}} 91. ^{{Cite news|url=https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house-senate-race-ratings-and-predictions/|title=Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election|work=POLITICO|access-date=2018-09-07}} 92. ^{{Cite web|url=https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/2018/updated-summary-report-CD2.xls|title=Results Certified to the Governor 11/26/18|last=|first=|date=|website=www.maine.gov|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=2018-12-14}}
External links- [https://votesmart.org/election/2018/C/ME/2018-congressional Candidates] at Vote Smart
- [https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Maine,_2018 Candidates] at Ballotpedia
- [https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/?cycle=2018&state=ME&sort=district Campaign finance] at FEC
- [https://www.opensecrets.org/races/election?id=ME&cycle=2018 Campaign finance] at Center for Responsive Politics
- Official campaign websites for first district candidates
- Marty Grohman (I) for Congress
- [https://www.holbrook4me.org/ Mark Holbrook (R) for Congress]
- Chellie Pingree (D) for Congress
- Official campaign websites for second district candidates
- Tiffany Bond (I) for Congress
- [https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com/ Jared Golden (D) for Congress]
- [https://votehoar.com Will Hoar (I) for Congress]
- Bruce Poliquin (R) for Congress
{{United States elections, 2018}} 3 : 2018 United States House of Representatives elections|United States House of Representatives elections in Maine|2018 Maine elections |
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