| 词条 | Helmut Norpoth |
| 释义 |
| honorific_prefix = | name = Helmut Norpoth | honorific_suffix = | native_name = | native_name_lang = | image = | image_size = | alt = | caption = | birth_date = {{birth year and age|1943}} | birth_place = | death_date = | death_place = | death_cause = | resting_place = | resting_place_coordinates = | other_names = | residence = | citizenship = | nationality = | fields = Political science | workplaces = Stony Brook University | patrons = | education = | alma_mater = University of Michigan | thesis_title = Sources of party cohesion in the U.S. House of Representatives | thesis_url = http://oglethorpeuniversity.worldcat.org/title/sources-of-party-cohesion-in-the-us-house-of-representatives/oclc/9898815&referer=brief_results | thesis_year = 1974 | doctoral_advisor = | academic_advisors = | doctoral_students = | notable_students = | known_for = Predicting election results | influences = | influenced = | awards = | author_abbrev_bot = | author_abbrev_zoo = | spouse = | partner = | children = | signature = | signature_alt = | website = | footnotes = }} Helmut Norpoth (born 1943) is an American political scientist and professor of political science at Stony Brook University. Education and careerNorpoth received his undergraduate degree from the Free University of Berlin in Germany in 1966. He then attended the University of Michigan, where he received his M.A. and Ph.D. in 1967 and 1974, respectively. Before joining Stony Brook University as an assistant professor in 1979, he taught at the University of Cologne and the University of Texas. In 1980, he was promoted to associate professor at Stony Brook, and became a tenured full professor there in 1985.[1] ResearchNorpoth's research focuses on multiple subjects in political science, including public opinion and electoral behavior, and predicting the results of elections in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany.[2][3] Norpoth developed the Primary Model, a statistical model he uses to predict the results of United States presidential elections based on data going back to 1912. He has used the model to correctly predict the winner of all six presidential elections from 1996 to 2016, including the Donald Trump victory in the 2016 election.[4] This model is based on two factors: whether the party that has been in power for a long time seems to be about to lose it, and whether a given candidate did better in the primaries than his or her opponent.[4] In February 2015, he projected that Republicans had a 65 percent chance of winning the general election the following year.[5] In 2016, this model gained significant media attention because it predicted that Donald Trump would win the general election.[6] In response to critics who cite polls in which Clinton leads Trump by a significant margin, Norpoth has said that these polls do not take into account who will actually vote in November, writing, "...nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."[7] References1. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/_polisci-old/people/professors/norpoth/Norpoth_CV.doc |title=Helmut Norpoth Curriculum Vitae| work=Stony Brook University | accessdate=28 October 2016}} 2. ^{{cite web | url=http://primarymodel.com/author/ | title=Author | work=Primarymodel.com | accessdate=28 October 2016}} 3. ^{{cite web | url=http://www.stonybrook.edu/experts/profile/helmut-norpoth | title=Helmut Norpoth | publisher=Stony Brook University | work=Experts | accessdate=28 October 2016}} 4. ^1 {{cite web | url=http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/27/meet-the-professor-whose-primary-model-says-trump-has-87-chance-to-win.html | title=Meet the Professor Whose ‘Primary Model’ Says Trump Has 87% Chance to Win | work=The Daily Beast | date=27 October 2016 | accessdate=28 October 2016 | author=Collins, Ben}} 5. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/why-hillary-clinton-isnt-the-favorite-after-all/435708/ | title=Why Hillary Clinton Isn't the Favorite After All | work=The Atlantic | date=13 February 2015 | accessdate=28 October 2016 | author=Roarty, Alex}} 6. ^{{cite web | url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-will-he-win-us-presidential-election-2016-hillary-clinton-a7380621.html | title=Donald Trump will win, claims man who correctly predicted almost every US presidential election | work=The Independent | date=27 October 2016 | accessdate=28 October 2016 | author=Mortimer, Caroline}} 7. ^{{cite web|url=http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_victory.html | title=SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk' | work=Syracuse.com | date=19 October 2016 | accessdate=28 October 2016 | author=Tampone, Kevin}} External links
8 : Stony Brook University faculty|1943 births|Living people|American political scientists|Free University of Berlin alumni|University of Michigan alumni|University of Texas faculty|University of Cologne faculty |
| 随便看 |
|
开放百科全书收录14589846条英语、德语、日语等多语种百科知识，基本涵盖了大多数领域的百科知识，是一部内容自由、开放的电子版国际百科全书。