- See also
- References
The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 Victorian state election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swings usually tend to cancel each other out. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[1] GOVERNMENT SEATS | Marginal | Bentleigh | Elizabeth Miller | LIB | 0.8% | Seymour | Cindy McLeish | LIB | 1.2% | Carrum | Donna Bauer | LIB | 2.0% | Mordialloc | Lorraine Wreford | LIB | 2.1% | Frankston | Geoff Shaw | LIB | 2.1% | Mitcham | Dee Ryall | LIB | 2.8% | Forest Hill | Neil Angus | LIB | 3.2% | South Barwon | Andrew Katos | LIB | 3.9% | Prahran | Clem Newton-Brown | LIB | 4.3% | Burwood | Graham Watt | LIB | 5.9% | Fairly safe | Gembrook | Brad Battin | LIB | 6.8% | Mount Waverley | Michael Gidley | LIB | 7.4% | Mildura | Peter Crisp | NAT v IND | 9.2% | Safe | Shepparton | Jeanette Powell | NAT v CA | 10.2% | Kilsyth | David Hodgett | LIB | 10.4% | Bayswater | Heidi Victoria | LIB | 10.6% | Hastings | Neale Burgess | LIB | 10.8% | Caulfield | David Southwick | LIB | 11.5% | South-West Coast | Denis Napthine | LIB | 11.9% | Ferntree Gully | Nick Wakeling | LIB | 12.0% | Gippsland East | Tim Bull | NAT v IND | 12.0% | Narracan | Gary Blackwood | LIB | 12.4% | Bass | Ken Smith | LIB | 12.6% | Polwarth | Terry Mulder | LIB | 13.3% | Evelyn | Christine Fyffe | LIB | 13.5% | Box Hill | Robert Clark | LIB | 13.8% | Warrandyte | Ryan Smith | LIB | 13.9% | Scoresby | Kim Wells | LIB | 14.1% | Nepean | Martin Dixon | LIB | 14.3% | Bulleen | Nicholas Kotsiras | LIB | 14.7% | Kew | Andrew McIntosh | LIB | 15.2% | Sandringham | Murray Thompson | LIB | 15.9% | Mornington | David Morris | LIB | 16.0% | Morwell | Russell Northe | NAT | 16.3% | Benambra | Bill Tilley | LIB | 16.5% | Hawthorn | Ted Baillieu | LIB | 16.7% | Brighton | Louise Asher | LIB | 17.6% | Doncaster | Mary Wooldridge | LIB | 17.6% | Murray Valley | Tim McCurdy | NAT | 19.0% | Very safe | Malvern | Michael O'Brien | LIB | 20.4% | Lowan | Hugh Delahunty | NAT | 22.1% | Gippsland South | Peter Ryan | NAT | 22.6% | Benalla | Bill Sykes | NAT | 23.1% | Rodney | Paul Weller | NAT | 26.2% | Swan Hill | Peter Walsh | NAT | 29.3% |
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS | Marginal | Eltham | Steve Herbert | ALP | 0.8% | Ballarat West | Sharon Knight | ALP | 1.1% | Macedon | Joanne Duncan | ALP | 1.3% | Bellarine | Lisa Neville | ALP | 1.4% | Ballarat East | Geoff Howard | ALP | 1.5% | Ivanhoe | Anthony Carbines | ALP | 1.7% | Cranbourne | Jude Perera | ALP | 1.8% | Monbulk | James Merlino | ALP | 1.9% | Albert Park | Martin Foley | ALP | 2.0% | Geelong | Ian Trezise | ALP | 2.1% | Essendon | Justin Madden | ALP | 2.4% | Ripon | Joe Helper | ALP | 2.7% | Bendigo West | Maree Edwards | ALP | 2.9% | Narre Warren North | Luke Donnellan | ALP | 3.0% | Brunswick | Jane Garrett | ALP v GRN | 3.3% | Bendigo East | Jacinta Allan | ALP | 3.8% | Yan Yean | Danielle Green | ALP | 4.1% | Oakleigh | Ann Barker | ALP | 4.8% | Fairly safe | Melbourne | Bronwyn Pike | ALP v GRN | 6.2% | Richmond | Richard Wynne | ALP v GRN | 6.2% | Narre Warren South | Judith Graley | ALP | 6.7% | Niddrie | Rob Hulls | ALP | 6.9% | Bundoora | Colin Brooks | ALP | 7.6% | Mulgrave | Daniel Andrews | ALP | 8.5% | Safe | Keilor | Natalie Hutchins | ALP | 10.3% | Northcote | Fiona Richardson | ALP v GRN | 10.7% | Tarneit | Tim Pallas | ALP | 11.1% | Williamstown | Wade Noonan | ALP | 11.8% | Altona | Jill Hennessy | ALP | 12.0% | Melton | Don Nardella | ALP | 12.8% | Dandenong | John Pandazopoulos | ALP | 13.9% | Lyndhurst | Tim Holding | ALP | 13.9% | Derrimut | Telmo Languiller | ALP | 14.4% | Yuroke | Liz Beattie | ALP | 15.3% | Clayton | Hong Lim | ALP | 15.3% | Lara | John Eren | ALP | 15.4% | Footscray | Marsha Thomson | ALP | 16.2% | Pascoe Vale | Christine Campbell | ALP | 17.8% | Kororoit | Marlene Kairouz | ALP | 18.6% | Mill Park | Lily D'Ambrosio | ALP | 19.5% | Very safe | Thomastown | Bronwyn Halfpenny | ALP | 20.2% | Preston | Robin Scott | ALP | 20.4% | Broadmeadows | John Brumby | ALP | 21.0% |
| {{-}}See also- Pre-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2014
References1. ^Electoral matrix: APH {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080220022106/http://www.aph.gov.au/LIBRARY/pubs/rn/2004-05/05rn25.htm |date=2008-02-20 }}
1 : Pendulums for Victorian state elections |