| 词条 | Guesstimate |
| 释义 |
Guesstimate is an informal English portmanteau of guess and estimate, first used by American statisticians in 1934[1] or 1935.[2] It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information,[3][4] or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture.[2][5][6] Like the words estimate and guess, guesstimate may be used as a verb or a noun (with the same change in pronunciation as estimate). A guesstimate may be a first rough approximation pending a more accurate estimate, or it may be an educated guess at something for which no better information will become available. The word may be used in a pejorative sense if information for a better estimate is available but ignored.[7][8] Guesstimation techniques are used:
Lawrence Weinstein and John Adam's book Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin, based on the course "Physics on the Back of an Envelope" at Old Dominion University, promotes guesstimation techniques as a useful life skill. It includes many worked examples of guesstimation, including the following problems:
Answer: about 2 trillion (2x1012).[12]
Answer: about 60 tons.[13] See also
References{{wiktionary|guesstimate}}1. ^guess Online Etymological Dictionary 2. ^1 guesstimate Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) 3. ^guesstimate Merriam-Webster On-line Dictionary 4. ^guesstimate MSN Encarta Dictionary. [https://www.webcitation.org/5kwqKSnuz?url=http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861615713/guesstimate.html Archived] 2009-10-31. 5. ^guesstimate {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080316182507/http://www.bartleby.com/61/17/G0301700.html |date=2008-03-16 }} American Heritage Dictionary 6. ^Compact Oxford English Dictionary guesstimate 7. ^"Guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals" from back cover of Statistics for Dummies 8. ^Guesstimate; Grades 4-6 NTTI Lesson Plan 9. ^Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin, Tony Mann, Times Higher Education Supplement 10. ^The Drake Equation WeAreNotAlone.net 11. ^Economic outlooks often rely on guesstimation, M. Ray Perryman, San Antonio Business Journal 12. ^Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 5.1 13. ^Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 10.5 Sources
| last = Weinstein | first = Lawrence |author2=Adam, John A. | title = Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin | publisher = Princeton University Press | year = 2008 | isbn = 978-0-691-12949-5 }} 4 : American slang|English-language slang|Informal estimation|Measurement |
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