词条 | Anna Karenina principle |
释义 |
The Anna Karenina principle states that a deficiency in any one of a number of factors dooms an endeavor to failure. Consequently, a successful endeavor (subject to this principle) is one where every possible deficiency has been avoided. The name of the principle derives from Leo Tolstoy's book Anna Karenina, which begins: {{quote|All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.}}In other words: in order to be happy, a family must be successful with respect to every one of a range of criteria, including sexual attraction, money issues, parenting, religion, and relations with in-laws. Failure on only one of these counts leads to unhappiness. Thus, there are more ways for a family to be unhappy than happy.In statistics, the term Anna Karenina principle is used to describe significance tests: there are any number of ways in which a dataset may violate the null hypothesis and only one in which all the assumptions are satisfied. ExamplesFailed domesticationThe Anna Karenina principle was popularized by Jared Diamond in his book Guns, Germs and Steel.[1] Diamond uses this principle to illustrate why so few wild animals have been successfully domesticated throughout history, as a deficiency in any one of a great number of factors can render a species undomesticable. Therefore, all successfully domesticated species are not so because of a particular positive trait, but because of a lack of any number of possible negative traits. In chapter 9, six groups of reasons for failed domestication of animals are defined:
Ecological risk assessment{{See also|Liebig's law of the minimum}}Moore describes applications of the Anna Karenina principle in ecology: {{quote|Successful ecological risk assessments are all alike; every unsuccessful ecological risk assessment fails in its own way. Tolstoy posited a similar analogy in his novel Anna Karenina : "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." By that, Tolstoy meant that for a marriage to be happy, it had to succeed in several key aspects. Failure on even one of these aspects, and the marriage is doomed . . . the Anna Karenina principle also applies to ecological risk assessments involving multiple stressors.[2]}}Aristotle's versionMuch earlier, Aristotle states the same principle in the Nicomachean Ethics (Book 2):[3] {{quote|Again, it is possible to fail in many ways (for evil belongs to the class of the unlimited, as the Pythagoreans conjectured, and good to that of the limited), while to succeed is possible only in one way (for which reason also one is easy and the other difficult – to miss the mark easy, to hit it difficult); for these reasons also, then, excess and defect are characteristic of vice, and the mean of virtue; For men are good in but one way, but bad in many.}}Order in chaos of maladaptationMany experiments and observations of groups of humans, animals, trees, grassy plants, stockmarket prices, and changes in the banking sector proved the modified Anna Karenina principle. {{quote|By studying the dynamics of correlation and variance in many systems facing external, or environmental, factors, we can typically, even before obvious symptoms of crisis appear, predict when one might occur, as correlation between individuals increases, and, at the same time, variance (and volatility) goes up.... All well-adapted systems are alike, all non-adapted systems experience maladaptation in their own way,... But in the chaos of maladaptation, there is an order. It seems, paradoxically, that as systems become more different they actually become more correlated within limits.[4]}}This effect is proved for many systems:[5] from the adaptation of healthy people to a change in climate conditions to the analysis of fatal outcomes in oncological and cardiological clinics. The same effect is found in the stock market. The applicability of these two statistical indicators of stress, simultaneous increase of variance and correlations, for diagnosis of social stress in large groups was examined in the prolonged stress period preceding the 2014 Ukrainian economic and political crisis. There was a simultaneous increase in the total correlation between the 19 major public fears in the Ukrainian society (by about 64%) and also in their statistical dispersion (by 29%) during the pre-crisis years.[6] General mathematical backgroundsVladimir Arnold in his book Catastrophe Theory describes "The Principle of Fragility of Good Things" which in a sense supplements the Principle of Anna Karenina: good systems must meet simultaneously a number of requirements; therefore, they are more fragile: {{quote|... for systems belonging to the singular part of the stability boundary a small change of the parameters is more likely to send the system into the unstable region than into the stable region. This is a manifestation of a general principle stating that all good things (e.g. stability) are more fragile than bad things. It seems that in good situations a number of requirements must hold simultaneously, while to call a situation bad even one failure suffices.[7] }}References1. ^{{cite book |author=Diamond, J. |title=Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies |publisher=W. W. Norton & Company |date=March 1997 |isbn=0-393-03891-2}} {{Anna Karenina}}{{DEFAULTSORT:Anna Karenina Principle}}2. ^{{cite journal|last1=Moore|first1=Dwayne R.J.|title=The Principle Applied to Ecological Risk Assessments of Multiple Stressors|journal=Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal|date=March 2001|volume=7|issue=2|pages=231–237|doi=10.1080/20018091094349}} 3. ^Aristotle. Nicomachean Ethics, Translated by W. D. Ross, Oxford University Press, Oxford; Revised edition (11 Jun 2009) 4. ^Anna Karenina principle explains bodily stress and stockmarket crashes, University of Leicester, 2010 5. ^{{cite journal|last1=Gorban|first1=Alexander N.|last2=Smirnova|first2=Elena V.|last3=Tyukina|first3=Tatiana A.|title=Correlations, risk and crisis: From physiology to finance|journal=Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications|date=August 2010|volume=389|issue=16|pages=3193–3217|url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222687003_Correlations_Risk_and_Crisis_From_Physiology_to_Finance|doi=10.1016/j.physa.2010.03.035|arxiv=0905.0129|bibcode=2010PhyA..389.3193G}} 6. ^Rybnikov, S.R.; Rybnikova, N.A.; Portnov, B.A. [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315918065_Public_fears_in_Ukrainian_society_Are_crises_predictable Public fears in Ukrainian society: Are crises predictable?] Psychology & Developing Societies 29(1):98-123· March 2017 7. ^{{cite book|last1=Arnold|first1=V. I.|title=Catastrophe Theory|date=September 1992 |publisher=Springer-Verlag |location=Berlin |isbn=3-540-54811-4 |edition=3rd Rev Exp |url=https://books.google.com/books/about/Catastrophe_theory.html?id=GQoQyqia45gC |pages=31–32}} 2 : Principles|Statistical hypothesis testing |
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